Pailin's Trading Corner

Pailin

Nice Bio.  I can relate.  One difference was I had one kid.  Cost me a fortune and kept me broke.  If you do decide to have a kid,  have a boy.  Don't have a girl.  Way too expensive and they never learn to not spend. 

I am up in New England also.  Look out I might drive over to your place to sit and talk to you.  As you have already helped me to learn to trade I intend to hang around here.  I just found you a few minutes ago.  I did not come to the silver forum yesterday.  But all things are now in sync. 

I am not trading yet and do not have an account.  Still working hard all day every day to learn.  It is amazing what I have learned these past weeks.  My understanding has greatly increased. 

So count on me to be trying to learn how to trade. 

Thanks Pailin - that's what has gotten me confused from my newbie analysis, but I am (so far fingers and toes crossed) reasonably on target for what I was expecting in the intermediate QE period with the exception of the price action of silver.  I am surprised by the strength it has shown consistently at $35 point and watching buying on SLV 3 min chart the upward movement was very much like a reverse EE raid.   That is what is making me think there are some safety seekers buying in at pretty large volume (on a side not there was a 50 cent down 3 min candle at the end of the day on SLV with a volume of over 600k - very wierd)

Sincerely appreciate everyones experience and wisdom on Turd's been quite a learning experience.

Thanks guys and gals. BOP has been a long term investor in PM's. Only now trying to figure out how to trade on my own. This thread has already helped me out immensely. This is much easier reading posts than slogging through hundreds of comments before on the old site.

As I posted earlier today, gold has risen with the USD before. Aug 05 to May 06 gold went from $450 to 700 as the USD rallied along with it. try not to focus too much on the inverse relationship with the shit going down in Greece and the EU. This is bullish for PM's and cannot be discounted.

Good luck to everyone...

Aloha,

Bay of Pigs

Sockeye,

As I recall, lot size will vary by the broker. All serious forex brokers offer demo or paper trading accounts, some unlimited, some for a set time period. People here speak well of Oanda, but I haven't used them. If I were going to open a forex account outside of my regular broker I would look at Oanda or Dukascopy. You should be able to test drive either of them.

When I was researching forex, I found this site very helpful: http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/

For news websites with a forex emphasis, I like:

http://www.forexlive.com/

http://ransquawk.com/live

Getting a Twitter account and a client you can always leave running outside of a web browser is extremely helpful, too. 

Have to agree with Pailin here. The mini range from 35-36 is neutral no trade zone unless you don't mind the high risk low return.

Remember you don't always need to have a trade position in play. Sometimes it's all about the waiting (Reminiscences).

As for overnight thread I thank you for your kind remarks on my Late Night commentary. Personally I think any useful info I provide is offset by my voluminous outpouring of debauched and insane comments...which this forum format precludes there'll be less of. Except in chat! ;)

I suspect also having moved onto a new project yesterday means that I'll have less time posting, but we'll see. Perhaps I'll contain my postings in Pailin's thread since we trade the same thing, I.e. XAG & XAU.

As for trading I'm trying to adapt a more swing trading approach into my style - meaning I wait more, trade less, go in on high contract size and let it ride but without necessarily fishing for a bottom or top.

Yes, but of course it works both ways. US firms are limited by the Frank-Dodd bill to 50x leverage, which should be plenty. Some firms outside the US offer up to 200:1 leverage (I think one allows 500:1).

With forex, or futures, a sudden movement in the wrong direction will use up all of your available margin, even if the condition lasts for only a tick. So a flash crash will wipe you out.

Also, when you buy on forex, the spread (difference between the buy price and sell price, which is the broker's fee) will put you immediately in the hole.

In sum, leverage is not something to start out with. I got much better at trading currency pairs on forex once I started using no leverage (all my positions were fully backed by the equity in my account). Even though I was only using 2x leverage, it was causing me to make bad decisions. I went though the same thing when learning options and figured I had fear/greed under control. Nope. So start small, go for a base hit or a walk or a hit by pitch, not a ten bagger.

Thank you to all posting, and especially to Pailin for heading up the room.  I am trading mainly equities in PM's, right now I am waiting for a possible low.  I look forward to sharing outlook as the summer unfolds.

I moved this conversation over to a new thread:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/so-you-want-trade-forex/354

Again looking at the H4 chart for XAU I see an interesting formation on charts going back to 31 May. Gold actually posted a triple top formation peaking at 1553 in early June. Once that price was not taken out, the next highest peak 1549 was done on three days after - thus confirming the triple top. The current trading range more or less signals the completion of that triple top - though potential exists that 1504 could be tested as part of the TT downside completion.

I also see a bearish Descending wedge on the immediate term with the price action now trading BELOW that confine.

A further step back shows a bearish symmetrical triangle pattern which is currently in progress. This targets a price low of 1485 (gasp!) consistent with Turd's analysis on this thread. 

The best compromise between all these patterns is for Gold to go as low as 1503 and finish up there.

Hope this helps.