Buy The Dip & Buy The Rally

Though Wednesday's are typically down days, the charts suggest that you should keep an eye on things.

In the larger picture, nothing much has changed. The pullback, that began on 10/4 with the BLSBS report for September, concluded with the spec washout lows of 11/2, following the release of the October BLSBS. Both gold and silver retraced roughly 50% of their moves from mid-August and have rebalanced some of the spec long vs Cartel short positions.

So, where do we go from here? Both metals could simply continue to trade sideways for a while, in a tight range between 1705 and 1730 in gold and 31.60 and 32.60 in silver. Maybe they will? There is still hope, however, for a breakout. Though there are clearly well-defined caps on the charts, pressure continues to mount for the UPside breakout I've been expecting/hoping to see. My London contacts continue to report "robust" physical demand at each and every fix. Let's see if this doesn't soon bleed over into the paper markets.

The main fundamental story I'd like to emphasize today is this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-13/us-budget-deficit-soars-october-government-spends-over-300-billion-one-month. And here are the two charts that accompanied the story at ZH:

As Egon Spengler would say, "this is extraordinarily bad". The first chart shows total U.S. government spending for each October since the turn of the century. Note that the total spending outlay for 10/12 was nearly as high as the disastrous level seen during The Great Financial Crisis in 2008.

Next, look at the chart on the right. This chart shows the total monthly deficit for each October since 2000. Of course, deficit equals spending minus tax revenues. At $120,000,000,000, the shortfall/deficit for October 2012 is a remarkable 22% higher than October 2011. Since October is the first month of fiscal 2013 for the U.S. government, it is safe to assume that the total deficit for the fiscal year will greatly exceed the deficit for 2011, likely coming in somewhere between 1.3 and 1.5 TRILLION DOLLARS.

Again, let me ask you, from where will the funding of this shortfall come? The republocrats would have you believe that we are borrowing it from China. That's sounds cute and handy and it has an easy-to-understand, populist tone. The problem is, like most republocrat statements, it's not true. ( http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-11/china-s-u-s-debt-holdings-aren-t-threat-pentagon-says.html)

So, again, I ask you, from where will this money come? If you answered "QE∞", you're finally beginning to catch on. All of the nonsense, the SPIN and the BS that makes QE∞ out to be some type of "economic stimulus" program must be ignored. Quantitative Easing is simply a backdoor system by which The Fed directly funds the over-spending of the U.S. government. The Fed buys crapola off of the balance sheets of the Primary Dealers and these same dealers turn around and use these funds to support/buy treasuries at auction. The bond market continues to magically levitate, interest rates stay low and the U.S. government continues along its merry, Keynesian path.

Eventually, this will all come crashing down in an extraordinarily painful, inflationary collapse. Until then, because each new dollar printed is so destructive to the value of each and every existing dollar, you must continue to accumulate physical precious metal. Consistently exchanging your devaluing fiat for tangible, real assets is the only personal financial protection that you have against this madness.

Buy some more today.

TF

212 Comments

Bollocks's picture

I have to agree.

Mad5Hatter's picture

chill

LOOK EVERYBODY!!, CHILL OUT, I got this!

Dont go cat nip on me ....

Did not 32.50 just become support? ssssshhhhhh, dont say a word more .....

القراع عصفور's picture

sorry TF

just misunderstood what i was saying, i guess.  we are on the same side.

alphamorph's picture

Murdered by Miners

PMs are holding up nicely however, the HUI has plummeted and my mining stocks are seriously in the shitter.  It will most certainly be a 5 digit day for me.  Anyone else feeling the pain (misery seeks company)?

القراع عصفور's picture

@ Bollocks

i got a picture somewhere of my cat drinking a can of Budweiser.  i told him to drink something good like Pabst, but he seemed unfazed by my criticism:-)

silver66's picture

China needs more

SRSrocco's picture

AS PRODUCTION COSTS INCREASE... SO WILL THE PRICE OF SILVER

Silver prices may climb as much as 38% in 2013 - GFMS

HONG KONG (Reuters) -

Silver prices may rise as much as 38 percent in 2013 from current levels, as a weak global economy spurs safe-haven demand for the precious metal, the global head of metals analytics at GFMS, a Thomson Reuters unit, said on Wednesday.

Spot silver has gained more than 17 percent so far this year, outstripping a rise of 10 percent in gold, and setting course for its third yearly rise in four. Silver was trading at around $32.50 per ounce by 1020 GMT.

..."We are thinking prices will trend higher next year. I'm not convinced that we are going to $50. I think we will definitely see $40 to $45 prices."

-------------------

New Large Silver Article to Come Out Tomorrow or Monday

My new silver article is finished.  It will be coming out either tomorrow or Monday here on Turds blog.  It will also be published on the various financial websites.

I truly believe there is information and charts on certain aspects of silver that no one has ever seen before.  I strive to put out original work as I am tired of reading the same old stuff regurgitated over and over.

All I can say is.....GO $100 Silver

القراع عصفور's picture

alpha

ya musta read up on socios, to say something profound like that.  seriously.  smile.  the bastards already have lost, and they know it.  they will go down in flames, and take as many as they can along for the ride.  be at peace.

silver66's picture

China wants more

http://asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4965&Itemid=232

Should have put this links in ne post, sorry

Silver66

Turd Ferguson's picture

I could be wrong....

MODERATOR

But, to me, it seems clear that Israel, post the U.S. election, has decided to go it alone.

It appears that they are now deliberately trying to start a war in order to provide "cover" to attack Iran unilaterally. Look at the sudden change in course last week regarding Syria/Lebanon. Now this today.

Just sayin...

Got UCO?

Fr. Bill's picture

Jaabari's final moments ...

Did you notice in that video clip of the Israelis blasting Jaabari into hamburger how polite the IAF was?  They obviously could have atomized that car at any time that it was toodling down the street.  But, the IAF was Most Polite and Considerate to wait until the car was in the center of an intersection, well away from cars parked along the curb or pedestrians strolling along the sidewalks.

So very, very polite, those IAF detonators!

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Thought for the day

I was thinking about this when I woke up this morning, and needed to get it out of my brain- hence the photoshop. 

Don't think for a minute that all of you people opting out of the "we can slowly bleed you dry" fiat currency status quo hasn't upset a few characters...  and the more you talk central banking truth to family and friends, the more you educate others, the more upset those characters will become.  They know that a trickle becomes a stream becomes a flood... and at that point, the "create value for ourselves for free from thin air" paper printing central bank game is over. 

There is a reason they fight so damn hard- over spot price, futures contracts, "regulatory" agencies, lawsuits, media narratives, politics, you name it. 

cavalier's picture

SLW is weaker than mustard gas

SLW looks sick, down over 3 per cent today

it may have been stronger than mustard gas last week, it's giving me gas today

I guess my November options will expire worthless like my October options

But hope spring eternal and the March 2013 calls are cheaper today and look interesting given the potential of silver.

Silverbugs's picture

In the mean time keep

In the mean time keep stacking.

http://schiffblog.blogspot.ca/

¤'s picture

Crude oil

I"m expecting it to quickly spike above $90 and then $100 based on whats happening in the ME/Israel, Syria etc. over the past 24-48 hrs.

I believe everything that was seemingly held together by pre-election glue is about to quickly become unglued. Israel has a a few large silent partners/allies in waiting that won't let it get out of control if Israel finds itself in that position.

Keep your eye's on the Sinai next imho.

HeNateMe's picture

@Dryocopus

You said that, "my ego is so small that i will leave it there. i am trying to set a good example."

Trying to be "good" or "set a good example" is a sine qua non of having a very inflated ego.  Those that realize no ego exists do not engage in arguments over the size of their so-called "ego".

HeNateMe

FleetFeet's picture

Holding on

The HUI down 3% while the metals are rising?  Can there be any doubt that this is not natural?  

The Plunge Production Team is hard at work.  Why?  Because some news is coming that will send the miners up?  

I'm gonna hang in there!  

pforth's picture

Miner pain...

My miner's are hurting me too.  SLW down 3%, GDXJ down 3.5%, GDX down 2.8%.  Luckily I have more bullion than miners but does anyone know WHY this is happening?

Is this the foreshadow to a concerted monkey attack?

benque's picture

Continuing saga

From the present, going forward;

-Complete rape & pillage (R&P) of Greece, concurrent with completion of Spain's preparation for (R&P).

-Germany & Switzerland abet process by paying "dues" in order to be allowed to maintain "walking wounded" status.

-R&P of Ireland complete.  Greece sucked dry, with revolt imminent.

-Accelerate R&Ps of Spain, then Portugal, then Italy.  Accelerate R&P plan for Great Britain.

-As "revolution" actions after R&P operations approach untenable, shift to Phase II (R&P of North America)

-Cede Canada to China.

-R&P USA to stone age to discourage reprisals, then retire with gains and "rights".

-Lease rights to land, infrastructure, cultural landmarks, etc, to Chinese manufacturers and tourism.

edit:  Almost forgot; Finally: Marry Blythe, breed monkeys,and live happily ever after.

SIlverbee's picture

Ooh er missus

$33?!

Swineflogger's picture

How I feel today (and yesterday and probably tomorrow)

tyberious's picture

Wednesday, November 14,

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PLmqAcrih6Q4Db3QrI_904jkMkoIyjJmwD&v=Jfo8XiMO5kU&feature=player_embedded

Igor Panarin Prophecy Coming True ~ America Imploding into Pieces

 

In the summer of 1998, based on classified data about the state of the U.S. economy and society supplied to him by fellow FAPSI analysts, Igor Panarin forecast the probable disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010 (at the end of June – start of July 2010, as he specified on 10 December 2008) , Russian Expert Igor Panarin also Predicted that Obama Will Declare Martial Law in America by End of 2012 ????
Russian economist academic and political scientist Igor Panarin predicted that the United States of America would break up toward the end of 2010. This, of course, did not happen. However, that does not mean that this will never happen.So is Igor Panarin's prophecu coming true with a two years delay ? In fact now by the end of 2012 we see that this prediction is starting to come true somehow as Citizens in 34 States Files Petitions to Secede from United States , Igor Panarin said that there is a strong possibility that the United States will break into six pieces by June 2010, which he says will be the result of a second economic crisis in late November.
So far, two states, Texas and Louisiana, have reached their required signature thresholds and will require responses. Florida's petition should reach the threshold by the end of the day.
Here's the latest list of states and signature counts as of writing this. Some citizens in a few states have opened up multiple petitions for the same state.

Alaska (2,814)
Alabama (19,718)
Arizona (11,642)
Arkansas (14,384)
California (5,444)
Colorado (14,111)
Delaware (4,532)
Florida (21,129)
Georgia (19,802), Georgia (9,457)
Indiana (12,938)
Kansas (2,786)
Kentucky (12,319)
Louisiana (28,741)
Michigan (12,868)
Mississippi (12,355)
Missouri (14,033), Missouri (11,065)
Montana (9,634)
Nebraska (1,879)
Nevada (5,941)
New Jersey (9,961)
New York (3,974), New York (11,084)
North Carolina (18,601)
North Dakota (8,633)
Ohio (1,010), Ohio (5,357)
Oklahoma (3,681), Oklahoma (11,013)
Oregon (10,158)
Pennsylvania (2,420), Pennsylvania (7,624)
S.C. (15,045), South Carolina (10,948)
South Dakota (1,372)
Tennessee (19,030)
Texas (70,791)
Utah (626), Utah (4,028)
West Virginia (1,530)
Wyoming (4,069)

Turd Ferguson's picture

Positive closes

MODERATOR

With today's closes, both metals are above their HFT-algo-momo-important 5-day moving averages. The Dec12 gold 5-day is 1728.60 and the Dec12 silv is 32.53

The only MAs they remain below are the 50-days. For gold, that level is near $1744. Silver is $33.29 and significant chart resistance is there, too. A rally for both metals toward those levels overnight and tomorrow?

Silver Alert's picture

Miners

I suspect they're holding back in anticipation of the FED minutes being released at 14:00.  If it's gold positive, hopefully the miners will cut loose. If not, then...

alert's picture

Go Silver go! $32.90!

Will we see $33.30 soon?

DayStar's picture

TF, You Can Update the Thread

TF, you can update the thread.  Update the update and put the links back in the main post.  A lot of people will miss it here as the comments pile up.

DayStar

Hellfish's picture

@Turd, Start a war?  If

@Turd, Start a war?  If finally responding to 100s of rockets shot at your country is starting it I guess.

benque's picture

Whats wrong with this picture?

The great one speaks and markets tank.

Gold & silver up.

Oil up.

I've never seen this happen before.

T's picture

the distress of owning miners

The attack against miners, what Andy Hoffman says began as a  decision of sorts, back around november 2010, after they started to surge that fall.  The campaign of naked shorting to oblivion.

its been ongoing now for 2 years. Then ,he also says, look at the charts and see the HUI and miners have been flat at best for the last 5 years since 2007.

His firm  belief that mining stocks are targeted by the PTB  for death,  that the miners CEOs are doing nothing to protect  shareholders/share value. , that  the government  regulators will do nothing to stop the corrupt naked  short attacks, that miners  will continue to be destroyed until the financial  system  collapses, and then they might recover.   Other experts  say that as well, the junior miners  wont see recovery until we get breakout  rally in the metals, it sounds probable to imagine   and easier to see as time goes on.

Watching charts  becomes easy to see the rigged manipulation , in all the charts,  the support resistance zones, the painting of the charts by the PPT and cartel, the algos that stop and start on a dime.   the key moving averages, all the technical  indicators  humming along like a swiss clock,  making the charts look normal in technical terms, but  they really seem more like .... like the difference between silk flowers and real flowers, they look the same but you  can just tell they are not real. The market is not real. 

As one who owns way too many miners,all I have been doing,all I can do, is wait and watch , and hope that they rally back to  one or two more top zones, like February 2012  area, where I can sell them and break even.

Hope is feeling  very fragile,  all the time.

Many miners, many recommended by  decent  due diligence of Casey  research and others, like East asia minerals,  for example, are down 90 % ,  from their tops.   my portfolio  has half my miners still down 50 % , some 80 %. and I bought All of them at key support zone dips ,back when   it wasnt easy to see  the short attack game being  played.

Is there anybody today who doesnt think the mining sector , and precious metals prices  are being rigged ?

Even now, this pullback in the HUI/GDX appears normal, as the wave structure  falls back right to the key moving average and 50 % fib zone.  The rally wave structure from the summer bottom  remains normal.....BUT , right now is a critical time, just as the summer bottom was critical, right now is where the pullback Needs to hold support, and make the next rally  to  a higher top zone.

GDX can fall some more to maybe 46 area , but needs to hold there.  and rally again.

and rally above 50 and 55 and  continue on to  target 60 top zone.

Failure at 50 followed by a collapse to lower lows , below 46 as we approach the new year, or in the new year, would  demonstrate that the miners  truly are being killed  by the PTB, just like Andy H says.  and that there is no hope  for these miners.   Despite what hope ,undying hope  is always proclaimed by experts like Sinclair and  Embry, et all,  the reality  is what we see in our portfolios.  an ongoing blood letting, steady hemmorhage.  while the metals hold up better. 

A few miners look good, like Franco-Nevada, First Majestic,  Yamana.....    but the issue is one of   blatant naked shorting to oblivion, unhindered, ongoing, never ending,   since 2 years ago  at least. 

I forget the question or comment  someone made  about miners that  made me want to respond.

something about misery loves company....

I'm playing a strategic decision,subject to change,  that  I will hold the majority of my miners  for a while longer, in hopes that they can get me rally back to break even and then I should sell them, take the new dry powder and buy PSLV and PHYS instead. (the proxy for bullion)

but Ive been waiting all year to see this happen.  and now is the critical time for miners .

I expect to be disappointed    in this 'strong season'  for miners, just like last year at this time.  Rigged market.  trapped owning miners. staring at  losses,trying hard to believe Jim Sinclair, and stay the course. a very  uneasy game to play  in this vegas casino.

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