Pailin's Trading Corner

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Eman Laer
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oil

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spot-odd-commodity-out

Oil is dropping rapidly once again - while the rest of its commodity peers remain tied to the USD movements this week. The reason? More market speculation that the House of Saud is doing everything in its power to send crude to lows just ahead of the presidential election, even as Infinite QE takes the Dow to 36,000.

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redwood
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I think metals and miners

I think metals and miners going down this afternoon. we'll see.

BlackHawk
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TrimTabs Float Shrink ETF (NYSE: TTFS)

Anyone done DD or traded this ETF?

redwood
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Blackhawk, I think everyone

Blackhawk, I think everyone has gone out to play today. smiley

Bum in the libr...
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USO

USO dropped pretty far down to $34 which is also right at the 100 SMA.  the 100 SMA has acted as good support in the past so this could possibly be a buy in spot.  Keep an eye on it.

Bum in the libr...
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miners

gdx and nugt touched solid resistance and came back down... they are going to need a good push to keep going imo...  please add anything if I am missing something.

SilverWealth
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market

IMO equities remain strong regardless of week. Shallow pullbacks to the 8 and 10 and 20 day in many leading stocks continuing to be bought. Would love more pullback but in meantime, trading aapl,goog,lnkd,fb,v has been fine. The message being sent is that those trying to short tops without any indication of weakness are getting torched and those buying dips continue to do well.

metals pausing at highs is not a sign of weakness but rather strength considering that there has been no selling. Sure this stuff feels high but a trend is in now. Lots of this is flagging at highs so who knows when those flags breakdown, if and when they do then signals are given but until then the market keeps moving up. Who knows?

SilverWealth
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gdx

GDX,GDXJ are breaking  up and out of 3rd consecutive flags now, who knows when they pullback? I won't try and call a top to this move but I will most definitely buy pullbacks as well. Just my opinion.

pailin
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Today's non-action (lame)

Today's non-action (lame) will pull pivots in nicely. I'm sure I'll wake up to some buys scored overnight. Yeehaw.

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

bigal60
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@redwood

If it was not for the $9 beat down I would have my doubts but this feels like a shake to get everyone off before the takeoff. Running stops and gunning for anyone that is long. I got in yesterday at 96 and will double down if it gets to 90-91 tomorrow. Cant see it getting back to the 80's. Either way playing it for Dec.

redwood
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Agree this is going much

Agree this is going much higher.  But I still expect a pullback before week is over. Thursday is the only day left so I expect it tomorrow.  There was softening today,  not the circus I expected.  Perhaps just the preamble.  We'll see tomorrow.

Also playing if for November.  December may be iffy though seasonally a good month for metals.

bigal60
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Support

I am seeing strong support between 88-90 so think 90 will be the lowest it goes. Who knows  where it will end.

redwood
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As I said I have little doubt

As I said I have little doubt that some staging of war will be carried out.  Those holding oil will do well.  Question is when.  Maybe in a couple of months, certainly not before the election.  War will not take place before then.  The dear president is too precious.

It is true that Canadians have participated in Afghanistan in rather large numbers.  Until then they were much less engaged.  But at the point at which the Canadian ambassador is removed from Iran, Prime Minister Harper has declared his allegiance and more important the country's direct involvement. To me at least its pretty clear.

Eman Laer
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SilverWealth wrote: IMO best

SilverWealth wrote:

IMO best way for gamers to trade oil is to short it whenever Drudge Reports headline its highs and show pics of warships in the Gulf.

Its consistently a sucker's trade at highs.

I thought you had me on ignore. smiley

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I swing trade by the seat of my pants, but I do make a little profit somehow. Any comments I make about my trades should be taken with a grain of salt, and maybe as a contrarian indicator.

pailin
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Daily Pivot Points
Daily XAU/USD
High 1779.69
Low  1762.06
Close 1770.10
R3 1796.81
R2 1788.25
R1 1779.18
Pivot 1770.62
S1 1761.55
S2 1752.99
S3 1743.92
Weekly XAU/USD
High 1778.18
Low  1719.94
Close 1770.20
R3 1850.52
R2 1814.35
R1 1792.28
Pivot 1756.11
S1 1734.04
S2 1697.87
S3 1675.80
Monthly XAU/USD
High 1693.38
Low  1584.18
Close 1691.75
R3 1837.90
R2 1765.64
R1 1728.70
Pivot 1656.44
S1 1619.50
S2 1547.24
S3 1510.30
Daily XAG/USD
High 34.999
Low  34.267
Close 34.584
R3 35.699
R2 35.349
R1 34.967
Pivot 34.617
S1 34.235
S2 33.885
S3 33.503
Weekly XAG/USD
High 34.961
Low  32.462
Close 34.630
R3 38.073
R2 36.517
R1 35.574
Pivot 34.018
S1 33.075
S2 31.519
S3 30.576
Monthly XAG/USD
High 31.787
Low  26.981
Close 31.690
R3 38.131
R2 34.959
R1 33.325
Pivot 30.153
S1 28.519
S2 25.347
S3 23.713
Daily EUR/USD
High 1.30859
Low  1.29927
Close 1.30478
R3 1.31847
R2 1.31353
R1 1.30915
Pivot 1.30421
S1 1.29983
S2 1.29489
S3 1.29051
Weekly EUR/USD
High 1.31699
Low  1.27543
Close 1.31291
R3 1.36969
R2 1.34334
R1 1.32813
Pivot 1.30178
S1 1.28657
S2 1.26022
S3 1.24501
Monthly EUR/USD
High 1.26386
Low  1.21332
Close 1.25785
R3 1.32724
R2 1.29555
R1 1.27670
Pivot 1.24501
S1 1.22616
S2 1.19447
S3 1.17562

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

sixdollarsilver
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EROEI

Whomever wants these PMs to stop here and dip are putting in an awful lot of effort. It will be very interesting to see whether they have the leverage to pull it off today as it would be un-natural (did I just say that) for it to happen at this juncture.

If they lose today and we pop to the mid-term highs, I will be helping with any correction that happens at that point :)

glta

nice to hear from you atlee yes

sixdollarsilver
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wondering aloud

Whether we'll really get to see 1764.64 and 34.34 simultaneously right about now...

Isn't that first number important? The point at which volatility velocity picks up pace?

This goes out to you JS, with a big thanks.

pailin
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Waking up to S1 already in

Waking up to pair 'o S1 already in hand :)

@sixdollarsilver - Don't think too hard, it's quad witching, that's the ticket till Friday. No more. No less.

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

Silver Fox
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Spot on Redwood

Your initial call regarding the march to war on 27 September was spot on. If I was Netanyahu I would strike then as he has a fully exercised, international fleet of minesweepers and war ships right there to back him up.

The outrage over the movie made by that American guy seems totally out of proportion. Other movies on YouTube are much more inflammatory and caused no protest. For example, this one where Ann Barnhardt reads passages from a Koran, bookmarked with bacon, that are offensive to her and burns the pages. It's even been subtitled in Arabic and has had over 674,000 views and was uploaded 18 April 2011:  

).

I think it may have been stirred up as a pretext for strengthening some embassy security and evacuating others altogether prior to the strike. Not only US but German and even some British.

http://www.france24.com/en/20120916-us-orders-embassy-staff-leave-sudan-tunisia-protests-travel-muslim-riots

http://news.yahoo.com/germany-orders-embassy-staff-leave-khartoum-120948221.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2202839/Britain-poised-evacuate-diplomats-Middle-East-mob-violence-protest-anti-Islam-film-spreads.html

You already posted the link of Canada closing their embassy in Tehran and kicking out Iranian diplomats from Canada.

However now I think it will go down this weekend.  The whole flare up over the new cartoon in a French mag seems entirely contrived to allow the French to empty out 20 of their embassies and soft targets this Friday.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9553722/France-to-close-schools-and-embassies-fearing-Mohammed-cartoon-reaction.html

It would also make good sense to knock down the oil price prior to a strike as oil will spike up from a lower level.

SF

sixdollarsilver
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yep

pailin wrote:

It's quad witching, that's the ticket till Friday. No more. No less.

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