Brass Tacks
OK, so it has been a few days since QE to infinity became official Fed policy. There is certainly an abundance of swirling news and discussion out there that dances around the real significance. Today, we cut to the chase.
Let's go back and hit on the main FED points:
- The Fed will keep rates "extraordinarily low" through 2015
- The Fed will continue $45B/month in Operation Twist through year end
- The Fed will begin buying $40B/month in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) with no end date or target purchase amount given
So many of us have been seemingly immunized against the jolting effect of these headlines. Not just here at TFMR but nearly everywhere that "awakened" citizens congregate on the internet. We take the headlines at face-value but rarely stop to consider things on the next level. But we need to go there today because without a full understanding of what the true meaning and implications are, you're likely to delay actions that you should be immediately taking.
So, let's go back to the three bullet points above and take them, one-by-one. First,
- The Fed will keep rates "extraordinarily low" through 2015
What is The Fed telling you here? Well, a couple of things. First of all, 2015?? That's three freaking years from now! It's one thing to say that rates will stay low for the next 6-12 months. It's something entirely different to say three freaking years! The negative implications of this are dramatic as institutions such as pension funds and insurance companies will be ravaged by the continuance of ZIRP. Additionally, however, what is The Fed telling you about their expectations of economic "recovery"? Despite all of their official forecasts of growth and jobs, it sure doesn't seem that they believe it. Like the old adage says: Watch what they do, not what they say. We talk here incessantly about the miserable economy and the dim prospects for recovery. It is now clear that The Fed feels this way, too.
- The Fed will continue $45B/month in Operation Twist through year end
First of all, remember what Operation Twist is. The Fed is selling their short-term maturity holdings (where there is actual demand for "safe havens") and using the proceeds to purchase longer-term notes and bonds. This process is considered "sterilized" because, allegedly, The Fed isn't creating any new money. They are simply "re-positioning" some of their "assets". Whatever. I don't care to get sidetracked as to whether or not this is really a "sterile" process. All that matters is that The Fed is currently executing this strategy to the tune of about $45B/month. The problem for them is, they're almost out of short-term bills and notes to sell and, once this inventory of paper is depleted, the $45B/month is going to have to come from other, "non-sterile" sources.
- The Fed will begin buying $40B/month in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) with no end date or target purchase amount given
And now here's where it gets interesting. The key to this bullet point is the "no end date, open-ended" component. In fact, The Fed went so far as to state that they "stand ready" to increase the monthly amount of MBS purchases if "the labor market doesn't improve". OK, again, watch what they do, not what they say.
ZIRP will continue through 2015 but Operation Twist runs out of funds and ends late this year. Well, then, from where will the $45B/month in Operation Twist be replaced. That's an easy one. The Fed has already told you the answer. Since the labor market won't be improving anytime soon, they will simply increase their monthly purchases of MBS from $40B to $85B.
An here's where almost everyone drops the ball. The mainstream media will tell you that The Fed is "supporting the mortgage market" and "helping to keep homes affordable" with this program. This is complete, unadulterated BS. Sure, The Fed is buying $85B in MBS every month...but...from whom??? Which institutions own these MBS and are obligingly selling them to The Fed??? I'll wait here and let you think about that one for a few moments...
...
...
...
The Primary Dealers! Goldman, The Morgue, MorganStanley, Citi, BoA...all of them. They own or purchase new the MBS which The Fed buys from them. And here's the very important next step: The Primary Dealers turn around and use the proceeds from these sales to buy U.S. treasuries! To the tune of $85B/month. Let me do the math for you...that's slightly more than one trillion dollars over the next year. And what does the Congressional Budget Office project the U.S. federal deficit to be in fiscal 2013? It will again be north of one trillion dollars, at a minimum. http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43539
At the end of the day...and here's where we get down to brass tacks...last week The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a plan whereby they will be almost completely and directly monetizing the deficit spending of the U.S. government. Though the illusion of legitimate borrowing will be maintained and politicians will continue to claim that "we're borrowing all of this from China", you should not be fooled. We have entered a new paradigm of direct debt monetization. By doing so, The Federal Reserve has begun the process of overt currency debasement and devaluation.
Your only financial protection from this game-ending disaster is the ownership of physical precious metal. Though, in the short-term, dollar-denominated paper assets may perform reasonably well, they offer no long-term protection against your inevitable loss of purchasing power and wealth. Only physical precious metal can protect you in the days ahead. Buy some and add to your stack before it's too late.
TF
p.s. I plan to discuss this post in greater detail later today at http://www.turdtalksmetals.com
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Comments
James Turk is a perma-bull
James Turk is a perma-bull because he takes the LONG TERM VIEW. If you are in this for the next 10 years, then all of these fluctuations on a daily basis means absolutely nothing.... zero zilch. That is why Turk is ALWAYS positive the metals because he is looking past the horizon.
Just my opinion...
An FUBM
Yes Folks a mid afternoon treat
@Byzantanium
I believe the algos are mostly configured to chase momentum.That is the biggest reason we see such wide gyrations in thses markets on so many days.
Hope that gives you some resolve.
Well...
This is no good. Back to square
cellone.http://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-totalitarian-state-wins-after-all-obama-reinstates-ndaa-military-detention-provision
Who is Shill? LOL.
Who is Shill?
LOL.
James Turk is a perma-bull
James Turk is a perma-bull because he takes the LONG TERM VIEW. If you are in this for the next 10 years, then all of these fluctuations on a daily basis means absolutely nothing.... zero zilch. That is why Turk is ALWAYS positive the metals because he is looking past the horizon.
Then why does he make widely publicized calls based on the short-term? I fully agree with his long-term analysis. I also know that every time he makes a near-term call silver seems to get smacked shortly thereafter.
War of words escalates
Debt crisis: central bank action is work of the devil, says Germany's Jens Weidmann
The head of Germany’s Bundesbank has raised eyebrows across Europe after he appeared to compare Mario Draghi’s bond buying programme with the "devil’s work".
Jens Weidmann said that efforts by central banks to pump money into the economy reminded him of the scene in Faust, when the devil Mephistopheles, “disguised as a fool”, convinces an emperor to issue large amounts of paper money. In Goethe’s classic, the money printing solves the kingdom’s financial problems but the tale ends badly with rampant inflation.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9551348/Debt-crisis-c...
Everybody knows Shill, he
Everybody knows Shill,
he like Ferris Bueller before him, is a righteous dude.
Turd, how is this Misinformation ?
http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2012/09/18/china-us-debt-tic/?iid=HP_River
@ DPH "train wrecks"
Yeah, I feel it too! It's kind of a "Burning Down the House" sort of feeling!
If you can be detained indefinitely....
and without due process, then if the feds show up at your door, it is game on, right? I mean who would be peacefully detained by the feds when they know they might never come back?
@ HAVEFAITH
I'm sent you a PM.
re: Obama Reinstates NDAA Military Detention Provision
TPTB must have it. So they get it.
It was always going to be that way regardless of Chris Hedge's magnificent challenge.
With much respect I say this,
With much respect I say this, it is not desensitization. It's disassociation. For the majority of individuals in society, on this board. I guarantee it. A much different psychological state.
Desensitization is reprogramming the reaction to certain stimulus. However, desensitization doesn't remove the underlying fear and it can be retriggered. Most doctors are not desensitized from death. They utilize coping mechanisms for the most part.
The opposite of disassociation would be flooding or abreaction. Forget about war, sleeper cells, marshal law and those fairly extreme scenario's, the moment we have a market event that put's an individuals financial security at risk, individuals will come out of their dissociation and go into what is known as fight or flight. Basically, a crisis moment!
Physical prepping for any of these events is a definitely a wise move. You are doing two things, obviously preparing your survival but also distancing yourself from the anxiety and stress associated with that event happening. It's only a distance. Not a removal.
After 9/11 over 10,000 police and firefighters had PTSD and the statistics among the population is hard to know because not everyone seeks treatment. It's non-combat PTSD or acute stress disorder. But thousands upon thousand that witnessed that much death and destruction, live in person, it's now implanted in your unconscious and hyperarousal (triggering) was rampant.
People after the depression developed a great fear of banks. All of a sudden one day people had no more savings. WOW, think about it? What we are talking about here is much worse. If unemployment reaches high levels upwards of 50% or more, banking holidays, collapses, people's greatest fears will be triggered even those like us who have become "immune" to this talk. As I have said before, even those with strong sea legs will be rocked. Beyond all the other troubles we will be facing in society, mental health disorders will be rampant including Acute Stress disorder or PTSD. You better believe there are those who are aware and preparing accordingly to give aid. There is nothing, absolutely nothing that can turn and individual into a basket case quicker then threatening financial well being and a food short supply. The aggressive individuals in our society will come out of the ant holes.
OK, LOL
But I still dont know who or what this Shill is...is it a Turdism? Fill me in please, dont just laugh at a brother you douchbag.
Shill was a long-time
Shill was a long-time community member--beginning when the blog was posted on a blogspot site. He left the site last year to pursue other endeavors. You can still find his postings as "shill" around the interwebs. He does some good stuff with finance and international relations and silver and gold.
I am Shill
That's right, it is I.
re: Shill's head's up
I'm as worried about what Panetta will do on this trip as I am about a Chinese general's quote. What was that about entangling alliances?
--------
Panetta repeated the U.S. position that it is neutral in the dispute over Japan’s Senkaku islands... But he also reaffirmed the U.S. defense commitment to Japan, a treaty ally.
“We stand by our treaty obligations.” "They’re longstanding, and that has not changed.”
NA
NA
GL
I'll agree with your choice of words being more siutable to what I mentioned earlier.
Thanks for the respectful and well thought out counterpoint :-)
Thank you
TY GL, sheeesh, that was worse than going to the dentist.
Shill?
I am Spartacus!
@gdog: $50Bn...
I'm reading that as
1) paper is bad, mmmkay?
2) if it more complicated than that, see #1
Gold at $1790 ignites silver: Citi
The excitement builds... http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-fitzpatrick-silver-gold-1790-2012-9
@ Beastly Stack
I have no knowledge of this myself, but just following your comment through;
then all these pretty charts that are produced by so many, are basically detached from any relevance, no?
Not so much a question to you, it is an open question.
re: Spot Gold
the 50 and 200 DMA are touching...
Fed news days
Seems like every Fed Governor is giving a talk within a two day span. Now it's Dudley. What gives?
Good Job Turd
Santa gave you a thumbs up on this post.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Mr. T. Ferguson has done a nice job of cutting through all the MSM commentary on QE by the time honored method of "Follow the Money." He clearly outlines how the banksters to their benefit act as what we used to call stooges to buy Treasury paper. As such, the Fed is Debt Monetizing without any question. Markets will wake up to what all this means soon. Gold is going to and through $3500 with all its usual and sometime bone grinding drama.
This educational piece is quite worth your time.
@Excalibur - devils work
If Draghi is doing the Devils work, and, as we all know, Blankfein is doing Gods work, does that mean there will be no let up in manipulation and BS in the Great Hereafter?
"Byzantium"
Byzantium was the Eastern wing of the Roman Empire, that survived uninterrupted for over a thousand years in its own right (till the mid 15th Century), and over 1500 years if we consider the beginnings as being the start of the actual Roman Empire. Few empires in history could achieve such longevity, and indeed the western wing survived for only a third of this duration.
With a nod in this instance to Jim Rickards as monetary historian, among the roots of the longevity of this eastern empire, were the twin pillars of sound money (it was never debased as in the Western Roman Empire), and a tax rate of 10% for everybody, which was considered to be fair and just by all. The citizens and vassals of Byzantium consequently gave their loyalty to the empire, and preferred it to any other available option.