The Week That Was
I tried to warn you that this week was going to be wild. I expected the pressure and intensity to ramp up with each successive day and it most certainly did. By Friday, everyone was ready for the weekend. That's fine but, come Monday, you'd better be ready.
What a fantastic week we had. Made even more special by the fact that we were set up for a disaster. Recall that I had been warning you for about 10 days that a Cartel Raid seemed on the horizon. They looked like they were once again setting everyone up for a massive beatdown. By the looks of the CoT yesterday, I was exactly right.
The situation, as it turned out, was eerily similar. Let's take a look:
December 2011: The price of gold bottomed late in December 2011 at $1525. The CoT also "bottomed" at a total gross Cartel short position of 325,960 and a net short ratio (gross shorts divided by gross longs) of 1.98:1. The price of silver bottomed at $26.40. The silver CoT bottomed with 55,356 gross shorts and a net short ratio of 1.34:1.
Jan-Feb 2012: The metals then took off on a two month rally, peaking on Tuesday, February 28. Gold reached $1790 (+17%) and silver made it to $37.50 (+34%). The CoT taken that afternoon showed a complete reversal from December. Now the total gross short position in gold was 390,412 with a net short ratio of 2.69:1. The total gross short position in silver had reached 78,395 and a net short ratio of 2.32:1.
And what happened the next day, 2/29/12? Using The Bernank's Capitol Hill testimony as cover, the bid side of the metals was overwhelmed by Cartel manipulation and a 3-month, short-covering beatdown ensued. http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3465/csi-comex-gold-and-silver-massacre
Gold bottomed again almost exactly three months later on Wednesday, May 30, 2012 at $1537. Two days later, the employment report for May was released and QE has been on everyone's lips since. On Tuesday, May 29, the CoT once again looked like this:
May 2012: On 5/29/12, the total gross short position of The Gold Cartel stood at 300,917 and the net short ratio had fallen all the way to 1.77:1. In silver, the gross short position was back to 60,151 and the net short ratio had fallen back to 1.31:1.
It had all been a set-up. From the lows in December, spec money flowed into the metals and The Cartels welcomed every dollar. At the peak, The Bernank was rolled out in front of the cameras to put off QE and The Cartels attacked. Over the next 90 days, they covered all of their fresh shorts and then waited all summer to play the game again.
August-September 2011: The final bottom for gold occurred on June 28 at $1552 and silver reached $26.21. The CoT on June 26 was once again at a "bottom", too. On Tuesday, July 10, the total gross short position of The Gold Cartel was 316,165 and the net short ratio was 1.93:1. The total gross silver short position was 62,478 and the ratio was 1.29:1.
As of this past Tuesday, September 11, look how things had changed again. Prices had risen considerably. Gold closed on Tuesday at $1735 (+12%) and silver closed at $33.56 (+28%). The total Gold Cartel gross short position was once again 380,239 and the net short ratio was 2.66:1. The total Cartel gross silver short position was 79,478 and the net short ratio was 2.47:1.
The Cartels had set us up again. The point is this: If the Fed had "disappointed, if The Bernank had put off all new QE until after the election, there can be zero doubt that we would have, once again, seen a massive, manipulative raid on gold and silver.
In hindsight, do you recall the very sharp and brief spike down that occurred about 10 minutes before the Fedlines were released on Thursday? This was almost certainly someone or something with foreknowledge of the raid, attempting to front-run The Cartels. By now, we all know what happened, instead. Rather than being "saved" by The Bernank and using "no QE" as cover to screw everyone once more, QE~ was announced and now The Cartels are trapped!
We'll use the days ahead to go into greater detail on the implications of this but rest assured for today that sharply higher prices are coming. QE~ only serves to increase the global demand for physical metal. This demand will underpin any attempts by The Cartels to start a selloff. Over time, they will be forced to cover at an accelerating pace, similar to April 2011 in silver and August 2011 in gold. There will be panics and you can count on every dirty trick imaginable being thrown at the "markets". This time, however, it's not going to work. With QE~ as a backdrop, every dip will be bought, each successive low will be higher. The overconfident and greedy fools could/should have used this time to draw flat and perhaps even go net long. Instead they arrogantly chose to play their games one more time. This time, however, they will lose. The game is over and the fireworks have begun, even if the players seemingly haven't yet heard the final whistle.




Only one reading assignment this weekend and it's this piece from Brandon Smith at Alt-Market. This is one that you need to read carefully and then print it off and keep for posterity.
http://www.alt-market.com/articles/1034-get-ready-for-an-epic-fiat-currency-avalanche
Lastly, once again I beg everyone to recognize that this main thread is for the discussion of precious metals and issues affecting such. It is OK to reference events in the MENA as the current situation there clearly has an impact on the global economy, the price of oil and the equity markets. It is not OK to get into pissing matches regarding "radical Islam", "Zionism", "American Imperialism" and the like. There are forums for that and I've even gone to the trouble of setting one up for you: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/4188/radical-islam. Going forward, I am simply going to delete and remove comments from this main thread that I feel are set to hijack the discussion and turn people away from the education that this site provides. No exceptions. Got it?
OK, with that, I wish everyone a fantastic and restful weekend. Come back on Monday prepared for another wild and crazy week.
TF
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Comments
bitching back and forth on Main St is for losers!
You all know it pisses Turd off... and YET YOU STILL DO IT. Knock it off. Everybody wants to be the king of the interwebz.
You dumbasses are why we can't have anything nice. Enjoy your own bile.
Me...I am enjoying my freshly delivered (Today!) Year of the Snake coins I bought when spot was $30. They are absolutely badass. I won't get too attached to them, my plan is to flip my high premium stuff for gold when the ratio gets lower to get more gold than if I traded in some low/no premium stuff.
Have a nice weekend.
JPM Skeptic here
I'm thinking that they'll be cleared of all accusations and the matter dropped just like the climate scam University of East Anglia emails. I'll be very surprised if anything but a free pass comes from it.
@ Dagney
Yep. Printing money is a reaction to a crisis that will exist anyway. If they stopped printing tomorrow the result would eventually be the same. Gold and silver being valuable regardless of the fiat price. Keep stacking is all we can do.
@Karankawa
I agree. If you're looking at a longer time horizon always have the time decay on your side. However, TLT isn't leveraged so not near the decay of TBT.
Punk
I totaly agree . We too are 100% in PMs.
And I believe it will be some big black swan or as you say a mega crisis and to the moon we go.
But so what. It will just make our PMs and miner shares worth a lot more of worthless fiat currency .
Thanks to Benny
Holy crap!
I just saw IRB's #IfObamaDontWin Twitter thread. Are these people retarded? (Sorry to offend those with legitimate disabilities).
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/212782#comment-212782
US FBI about to be busy. Any Americans who want no part of this, creating space is your best defense.
@Punk
Eventually I see T-shirts popping up that say:
PRINT THIS, BITCH.
(note: I release all intellectual property rights associated with this idea)
Christmas is coming.
"People who are saying that
"The thing about gold is that you don't have counter-party risk. If you look at the rebuttal for people who are saying that gold isn't money....well I'm sorry but gold IS being used as money already on derivatives exchanges around the globe. Now that wasn't true five years ago. It's true today." - Janet Tavakoli
That's just one of the many gems in this new interview by Chris Martenson with Janet Tavakoli. It's really really good.
@ peckerwood
thank you for your attempt at on-line community Turd. really.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Apparently you live in a "community" where everyone thinks the same. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think that's called "communism".
Yeah, we're all here for the end of Keynesian experiment but to expect everyone to approach it from the same angle is pretty disingenuous.
Appreciate your thoughts though.
Oops
Morgan Stanley Smith Barney Admits Asking Former Risk Officer to Investigate Rainmaker
Published September 14, 2012
Dow Jones Newswires
Morgan Stanley Smith Barney has acknowledged it asked a former risk officer to investigate certain trades executed by a big-money broker's team, but the firm denies allegations that the officer discovered the broker was improperly "churning" securities or that the officer was fired because of the alleged discovery.
Clifford Jagodzinski filed suit in August, citing federal laws protecting whistleblowers and asking for at least $1 million in damages. In his claim, he said he determined that a star broker, Harvey Kadden, was making unnecessary trades to drive up commissions, and that he was fired in April because he urged the firm to report the violations to regulators.
In a response filed Sept. 7, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney acknowledged that Mr. Jagodzinski was asked to investigate trades executed by members of Mr. Kadden's team, and that he discussed those trades with his supervisors.
...
In his claim, filed in New York, Mr. Jagodzinski said he uncovered in late 2011 that Mr. Kadden was trading preferred securities in a way that improperly generated thousands of dollars in commissions. At the time, Mr. Kadden, a veteran broker with a long track record as a big revenue producer, had only recently moved to Morgan Stanley Smith Barney from competitor Merrill Lynch. According to Mr. Jagodzinski's filing, Mr. Kadden received a $25 million signing bonus for making the move.
Mr. Jagodzinski claimed his superiors initially encouraged him to continue his investigation but then withdrew support and instructed him to keep quiet about the trading issues. Within 10 days of telling a supervisor that the violations should be reported to the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Mr. Jagodzinski was fired from the firm, according to his complaint.
...
Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/09/14/morgan-stanley-smith-barney-admits-asking-former-risk-officer-to-investigate/#ixzz26ZkTJE1O
@cheekco
Id just as soon trade a few pieces of silver for the "catch of the day" down at the docks. No need for any fiat. lol
I'm glad I found some people to agree with me. Man, its been bad enough stacking gold and having friends and family think Im nuts. Throw in the 'we dont need no stinkin paper to make my gold worthwhile' to the mix and Im damn near in a box.
I just dont need no more paper to make my gold and silver shine. lol
"People who are saying that gold isn't money
This may well have been posted though I haven't seen it.
Peter Schiff on Fed Action CNBC 9/12/12
I love the sea shell argument LOL
@ Dagney
Thats a great T Shirt idea. I'd wear it.
Clink - really?
reread my post. i have always been tolerant of other views. what is it about my above post that you found so intolerant. community? do you mean collective? the band of trolls this weekend believe that the first two cavemen sharing a cave, were the first collective. i'll let you jerks go back to hattipping eachother , or whatever you all want to call this jerk fest.
have a nice weekend, the rest of you. i am going to respect Turd by leaving.
Dagney
"Are these people retarded?"
Statistically speaking, probably not most of them.
With an average IQ (as a group) of around 85, most of those posters were likely not diagnosed as Intellectually Disabled (the more 'in vogue' terminology).
That would require an IQ below 70. Obviously, with normal statistical distribution and outliers one or more standard deviations from the mean, a portion will be 'official' with regard to their mental limitations. What those tweets demonstrate, though, is not the well-established IQ differential, but instead the well-established differential in propensity to violence and hyper-agressive sexuality.
Hope that helps.
New monkey species discovered in U.S. of A. - -
To anyone considering posting inflammatory videos...
please consider the consequences. Yes, you have a right to post them. With rights come responsibilities.
The owner of this site has responsibilities as well.
The thing about being a
The thing about being a lapdog is that sometimes you get fed to the wolves. The Fed owns JPM and ALL the banks and ALL the financial institutions in the US, NOT the other way around. They will sacrifice any and all of them when it is politically expedient.
Further, the Fed can itself be sacrificed when the politicians feel that it does more harm to their re-election chances/personal checkbooks than good. Once that line is crossed, they too will be thrown under the bus. That's the way it is when one party has exclusive use of unlimited aggressive violence. The Fed might be able to work behind the scenes, and maybe assassinate a few pols that get out of line (even presidents), but when the tide turns, there won't be enough mercs in the world to protect them. By that time, they will have fled, more than likely with all the gold, to some non-extradition country with a strong military.
It's a MAD, MAD world...
Meanwhile In Beijing: "For The Respect Of The Motherland, We Must Go To War With Japan"
Anti-US protests sweeping across the entire Muslim world (which are continuing today), besieging, attacking and burning down US embassies, are not the only thing that the central banker policy vehicle known as "the markets" have to ignore in the coming days and weeks. Cause here comes China: "Thousands besiege Japan's embassy in Beijing over Tokyo's assertion of control over disputed islands in East China Sea." And China is not happy: "For The Respect Of The Motherland, We Must Go To War With Japan." Sure enough, where would the US be if the focal point of this escalation in militant anger - the Senkaku Islands - was not merely the latest expression of Pax Americana, and America's national interests abroad.
http://www.zerohedge.com/
Mariposa de Oro
My understanding is that what does the magic in colloidal silver is ionization. If your mix isn't ionizing there is no efficacy. What you do about that, I have no idea. Good luck.. it is good stuff when it is done right and would be invaluable to you if we ever see TSHTF.
First Two Cavemen?!?
pecker - "the first two cavemen sharing a cave"
Does the propaganda know no end? First, all the children's shows on the 'family channel' and now this. Can we not even let cavemen remain straight? What ever happened to the caveman dragging his cavegirl back to the cave? Not a perfect system, but do we have to re-write the cavemen as being quite so open-minded and tolerant? Is nothing sacred?
Thanks!
.
Net short
Hobo the net short is by category of trader. In this case commercials only. That is why it's not 1:1.
hope that helps
NVM or NVP
There are extraordinary and consequential things taking place right now that we should be discussing... yet I find myself scrolling through, uh, a bunch of chaff to get at the rare kernels of wheat. The signal to noise ratio has been rather disappointing, given the incredible potential of this forum to truly inform.
Just as bad, there are posters whose opinions I look for and benefit from reading, who are wasting space and their not inconsiderable talents sniping at each other. Sucks when I have traded PM's and public posts with people on each "side", only to see those whose opinions I otherwise respect just sniping away at each other.
Do you know what a NVM or a NVP is? I didn't either until I got my ego handed to me at ZH a few years ago. Here's the story. For people reading ZH today, you get mostly a contest to see who can churn out the pithiest snide comment. Back in the day, maybe three years ago, it wasn't so- you had high level discussions, strong opinion, and many times you needed an MBA just to follow along the trader/hedge fund speak... the acronyms, the wall street slang, the insider jokes about companies and trading desks... it was a no-bullshit "you better know what the fuck you are talking about" environment and the regulars didn't suffer fools easily.
So I was following along in the comments one day and I posted a smart-ass comment about the topic- nothing directed negatively at anyone personally, just a snide comment on the topic of the day. The type of thing you see 80% of the time there, today. But one of the well-known posters followed up my post with a three letter reply: "NVM". Confused, I looked this up on urban dictionary or something, and was pissed to find it stood for No Value Member. Its cousin is "NVP" for No Value Post. I was angrily composing my reply when I thought, "Wait a minute- he's right. I was just spouting off a half-assed opinion, there really WASN'T any value to people in that. Everyone has an opinion, just stating it harshly really doesn't add any value here. I shouldn't be pissed off, I should try to do better".
So I try to add value with every post, I always have that NVM thing in the back of my mind even today. Now I don't always succeed, but honestly when I post here I try to add some type of value- even if it is a stupid photoshop to get people to smile, or a joke (which adds value, IMO) or more substantive commentary, I always try to add some value when I put something up. So despite hanging out here pretty much every day, I average less than two posts per day- because I try to make them count.
What I am saying is, maybe if folks thought a little more about whether their post really has value to others, or perhaps considered that just throwing out harshly worded opinion doesn't really add much value in the grand scheme of things, the signal to noise ratio might increase significantly. Because seriously, I really value what most of you bring to the table here... but I have very little interest in every thought or opinion that crosses your mind. And I have absolutely zero interest in reading a post that says, in essence, "I disagree with poster X and think he is a moron". A little effort at editing, and concentrating on whether a post has value to others, could go a long way. JMO.
Ha
You Americans ... you think you are so cool .... having Helicopter Ben to rely on. Well, Benny boy didn't have the nuts to come up with this one ... this one took real imagination. Imagination that only a Central Banker could up with, a British Central Banker that is. Only 'Merv the Swerve' could dream this one up.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/9544611/Bank-of-England-to-a...
http://www.spink.com/lot-description.aspx?id=120371
No, only us Brits can believe that something that says £50, is actually 'worth' £400.
Will be dumping my AG on Monday, and queuing up for for something that's worth more than it says it is.
J
PS Anyone want me to get one for them while I'm there ?
PPS Credit to SGTReport
PPPS Just kidding about the 'You Americans' thing.
Japanese Invasion of Manchuria
@Punk
It sucks caring about others. The money topic amongst family and friends can be like a permanent wedge that doesn't allow you to be as close to them as you could. I remember overhearing a conversation in Seattle in 2009 between 2 guys. It was right in the wake of the Hank-Paulson-terrorizes-congress bailout. Anyway, one was a stacker and the other was his normalcy-biased buddy feeling like the world was saved. The buddy was beaten so bloody on the topic of money and purchasing power and he knew it but wasn't man enough to admit it, not even to his friend. His final argument was, "if the dollar goes to crap, I'll collect rocks and bones to trade with." ?!? Nobody at the docks will be trading for those. The stacker was so patient and trying so hard to help his friend and he clearly had deep concern on his face. Probably worried for 2 things: his friend's financial security and the health of their friendship. When we all get passed this and regroup to rebuild, I'll be your friend.
Make the shirt and wear it with pride. Maybe slap an Article 1, Section 8 passage below. They'll get it, hopefully before they're broke and starving.
PUNK
I hear ya. I am no longer doing the talk about the stacking thing.All my family and friends think I;m living on some other planet.
Truth is I do feel so blessed. We have our farm all payed for. We produce way more then we need. 50 years of hard work and a fight to keep the bills paid from one month to the next.
I;v been a farmer my whole life so I don;t give a shit if we fall into a depression. I;m used to it.
The only thing that feels real to me in these times is this farm and what we produce so I guess it has all payed off.
Well said!
Well said Pining. many hat tips!
I am sure that those who were actively posting in the blogspot days, and the first six months on the new site were just as ornery and had just as many contrary opinions. But the site focused on metals, investing and prepping. I don't recall many snide comments or nasty arguments. I grew addicted to the comment sections, getting a real education, having my eyes opened and trying to share something worth reading on occasion. I am still in the habit of reading every post. But now I just glance and scroll, looking for genuine contributions.
Thanks Pining
You said it so much better than me. I respect everyone here and it is just silly to have internet flame wars on Main St.
I rarely have much of anything of value to post that someone hasn't posted already. I always look forward to Turd's latest insight, but I also value the contributions from the community.
You wanna sling insults, go to the Fight Club, Turd already provided when he attempted to get this snide behavior under control months ago: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/turds-fight-club "Hey numbnutz, I am way more erudite than your knuckle-dragging ass, meet me at the Fight Club so i can own you on an internet forum."
Do you respect Turd? Then, show some friggin respect. Nuff said.
@Pining
Since when does a "well-known poster" dictate who/what has value and who/what doesn't? That's the same mental illness people have who let their leaders get away with theft, rape, and murder or when some royal freaks sue a foreign newspaper for treating them the same way the royals treat the commoners. JMO