Be Not Afraid
Not that there isn't plenty to be nervous about...
Let's begin with the MENA. As discussed here back on Wednesday, this type of event slowly builds regional momentum as word spreads of the "indignity". The furor will likely peak in the next few days but it remains to be seen if the global powers that be will let the crisis run its usual course. In the interim, crude continues to build a war premium and the declining dollar is shoving it forward, too. For now, I'm still looking for crude to run toward $101 before consolidating again but don't be surprised if it first reaches up toward $104, instead. The events this weekend and Monday will hold the key.
Open-ended and infinite QE is playing heck with The Pig and the bond market today as renewed inflation expectations are giving buyers pause. ("Wait a second. Hold on a minute. Did I really just buy a 30-year U.S. treasury with a yield of just 3%?") I printed off the long-term charts today so that you'd be aware of a few things.
- Note that both the 10-year note and the Long Bond recently topped with almost identical head-and-shoulder patterns.
- Though the 10-year has clearly broken down through its trendline from the end of QE2, the LB is desperately trying to hang on. Further weakness in the 10-year will break the LB, too, however.
- These are just the beginning stages of the next trend downward, though, as prices of both will undoubtedly regress back to their primary trendlines over time.
- In the 10-year, this means a fall toward 124-125. In the Long Bond, look for a drop toward 123-124.
And The Pig is truly living up (down) to its moniker today. All those calling for a rally to 90+ certainly have eggs on their faces as the trend from the end of QE2 has been decisively broken. Though there will be bounces and rallies from time to time, previous bouts of QE have led to a Pig bottom near 74 and there is no reason to expect a different result this time around. Again, though, this time appears to be different. This time, The Fed is planning QE to infinity. If so, if nothing comes along to slow this runaway train, 74 will fail as will 72. WHEN that happens...
So now would be the time to stick in a QE~ caveat. There is one fly in the ointment, one potential wrench in the works. The United States could suddenly "get religion". Post the election, perhaps dramatic austerity measures will be enforced. Maybe the president will replace The Bernank with a new, more hawkish Fed chairman. A decision could be made to raise rates and "take our medicine". We'll wring the monetary excesses out of the global system and deal forthrightly with the incumbent deflation.
Rrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiiiggggggggghhhhhhhttttttttt..........
OK, since all of the steps above are highly unlikely, to say the least, let not your heart be troubled by the price action of the metals today. Sure, it would have been nice if The Cartels had simply run up the white flag yesterday and joined us all on the long side. But never forget that their job has always been to manage the ascent. There are dynamic new forces coming to fore that will soon force their hands and leave them no choice but, in the meantime, please accept days like today just as you accepted the last 12 months: A gift of time for you to continue to prepare. Knowing what you know about QE~, you should be jumping for joy that silver is just $34.60/ounce this morning. You should feel blessed that you can purchase even more gold at just $1773/ounce. There is no way that The Cartels will be able to continue with their destructive ways. The extraordinary, global demand for physical metal continues unabated and will only increase with time as recognition grows that fiat debasement is not a temporary trend. Combine this physical demand with still-unrecognized, historic, vindicative imbroglio that is soon to wash upon their shores, and you get a Cartel that will be forced to recognize the flawed absurdity of "business as usual".
Just keep buying the dips.
And we've got some hats to send out again. Yesterday's contest was a lot of fun and I certainly saw some very insightful entries. I intended to pay out hats to the top 3 finishers but I couldn't decide on 3rd place so we had a dead heat for show. Keep in mind that the closing Globex prices yesterday were $1767.20 and $34.68.
In 3rd we have: "gearhead_24" and "Apathetic or Whatever".
Submitted by gearhead_24 on September 13, 2012 - 10:22am.
Extended QE announced as the Fed "deems" necessary in future intervals. Buys mortgage backed securities.
Not a chartist but I did see silver triple tap 32.95 ish on Kitco chart. Tells me going up BWTFDIK. Silver $34.60 Gold $1770
Submitted by Apathetic or Whatever on September 13, 2012 - 10:06am.
Fed: announces $500b in mbs purchases along with an extension of twist into the 1st quarter of next year. Gold: 1770 Silver: 34.75
In 2nd place, we have the slightly more prescient "StevenBHorse" who chimed in with this gem:
Submitted by StevenBHorse on September 13, 2012 - 9:45am.
Inflation is transitory due to the recent weather, expected to moderate in further quarters. Formal QE 3 announced, open ended but with a minimum of $600B through MBS and Treasury purchases. Interest rates pegged at zero through mid 2015. Interest on reserves to remain at 50 bps. Au- 1756 Ag- 34.50
And the clear winner was this spookily-accurate entry from "Deeper":
Submitted by Deeper on September 13, 2012 - 9:22am.
With no definite start date or timeline, only specifying open ended MBS and bond purchases. Extend ZIRP policy through mid 2015.
Closing Price today $1769.50 Gold, $34.69 Silver
All four of you need to send me your shipping information at tfmetalsreport at gmail dot com.
As usual, I'll add thoughts later today, once I see the CoT. I'll also try to begin a new thread tomorrow for your weekend enjoyment, too. Speaking of the weekend...I hope yours is safe, fun and relaxing. Keep an eye on the headlines, though, as worldwide craziness could break out at any time. Then, be sure to come back on Monday as we begin another volatile, but fun, week.
TF
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Comments
COT & Set up
Way i see it - the banksters thought they had Silver market where they wanted it.
Heli Ben had no choice.
Do nothing = career over.
Banksters are funding the alternate version of a teleprompter reader.
Do QE3 = extended play.
Next week will be wild.
I am not convinced that there was short covering yesterday. I think the cartel was adding MORE shorts to limit the price to just 2% gain. They must have added shorts today to stop any rise. At one point today, I checked quite a few markets. Stocks, Other metals, Oil, Agriculture. All seemed up. Just not Gold & Silver. I think we have reached the point where they are simply going to keep doubling down until they get lower prices.
I see next week developing into some huge battles. If metal demand is v strong, they will add more shorts.
@Turd
Turd, When you said the Cartels are now buried after today's COT report, it seems you are not accepting the possibility that the COT is manipulated just like every other data.
Also the possibility of them being longs as speculators and commercial through their subsidiaries.
It is very difficult to imagine them caught by surprise at Bernank's decision yesterday. Remember, TPTB owns the Bernank.
I could be wrong but I'm just thinking out of the box and throwing some possibilities out there.
Regarding SGS Youtube video
Do you know that is is actually possible to buy views on Youtube? It's called Google AdWords. 1$ can buy as much as 100 views. Could be an effective way to make videos like that go viral. A couple of successful traders donating a total of 10k $ to that cause could mean a million views on a particular Youtube video.
Latest Kitco Bankruptcy Trustee Report
http://www.rsmrichter.com/downloads/pdf/insolvency_files/rcaseid233/31-Kitco%20CCAA%20Tenth%20Report%20to%20Court_Quarterly%20April%20to%20June_Final.pdf
Highlights for the lazy: 303 million in claims by unsecured creditors, stay of proceedings until October 17, 2012, still lots of people in the pool accounts.
So the day after the Ben Bernanke announces QE to infinity and beyond the metals can only manage a few dollars in gold and flat in silver. The monkeys haven't lost control of this market quite yet.
Z
"Shut up!", he explained.
tmosely, I learn by reading both sides. Oftentimes those calling for the silencing of others are the ones who should double-check their own beliefs and assumptions. Reading only opinions that align with your viewpoint reinforces what you think you know, but it doesn't challenge those beliefs and assumptions thereby strengthening them if they are indeed truthful and correlate to the broader reality. The practicing Muslim(s) that you know may not be representative of the billions populating this finite globe. Just as my friends of a different political bent may not be representative of their broader party.
(edit...)
Relating it to the metals... I think we're all looking for that special viewpoint that gives us a leg-up on the market. I come here and to the other alternate media to see the viewpoint that isn't given to the masses and use that to make my preparation for what is to come.
Sinai
My brother-in-law served there as part of this "peacekeeping force" a few years back. I'll bet he's glad he's not there now...Escalating...
http://www.debka.com/article/22356/At-least-4-casualties-in-Al-Qaeda-attack-on-US-led-Sinai-peacekeeping-mission-
Kitco
How these fuckers have any credibility at all has me absolutely baffled.
(I only use their charts because they match the overall color scheme.)
A Little Levity?
The world is both here and not here. I exist and I have never set foot upon this Earth. Everything is relative but nothing is. Two in one and one in two. Such is...
Like a skateboarder dreaming of surfing..
HeNateMe
No price drop?
Maybe the cartel is waiting for the buying interest to subside after a few trading days and then send a big price whack by the Algos? Not even a margin increase announcement after market close. You have to admit this is a very strange situation of non-manipulative behavior.
NSFW-Samuel Jackson weighs in on...
...Snakes on a Plane, a children's book and November 6, 2012:)
-----------------------------------------------------
Samuel’s prez ad: Wake the f@#k up!
They picked the perfect actor for a political ad loaded with f-bombs.
Samuel L. Jackson will film a provocative spot supporting President Obama’s re-election bid as early as tomorrow — telling voters to “Wake the f--k up, Vote for Obama.”
The ad is a riff on Jackson’s viral video “Go the F--k to Sleep,” where he narrates a children’s book written by Adam Mansbach.
"We need to start with small
"We need to start with small suggestions. Sorry puck, I know you would disagree."
I'm never going to live that down, am I?
BTW, that is a great video, I've been pushing it everywhere. SCG is putting out some great stuff.
Sorry Gramp, couldn't resist.
Collectivism and racism are
Collectivism and racism are not viewpoints I am interested in. The world would be better off it that entire realm of thought were to simply vanish.
I never called for them to be silenced. I called for them to be ignored, like the worthless relics that they are.
I do NOT tolerate intolerance. That is for idiot liberals.
If radical Muslims were on here spreading hate, I would denounce and ignore them as well.
Shitco
The moderation at that site is horrific.
And the poster's....,,,,,....Lets just say this fine upstanding population in Turdville would not want such undesirables living in this neighborhood.
The Kitco forum is like visiting Tijuana Mexico. The donkey show is interesting, but I wouldn't want to live there.
You never answered my question tmosley...
...George Orwell and Winston Smith would like to know:)
And I'm sorry, but I'm not physically able to perform the act you suggested in your first answer to the question, and with that I'm done:)
You "stepped in it". Wear it proudly.
-------------------------------------
hate speech
--------------
Is that "as serious" or "more serious" than a "hate crime"?
------------------------------------------------------------
deleted
for shame on you
CFR: Contingency Planning Memorandum No. 16: Venezuela
Political Unrest in Venezuela
Contingency Planning Memorandum No. 16
Author: Patrick D. Duddy, Visiting Senior Lecturer, Duke University
Introduction
In the coming months, Venezuela could experience significant political unrest and violence that lead to the further curtailment of democracy in the country. Presidential elections are scheduled to take place on October 7, 2012. President Hugo Chavez is in the midst of a tough reelection campaign against Henrique Capriles Radonski—the young and energetic governor of the state of Miranda—who enjoys multiparty support and appears to have a better chance of defeating the incumbent than earlier challengers.
Over the course of the past year, Chavez and several of his most senior associates have asserted that there will be instability and violence if he is not reelected. At the same time, Chavez is battling cancer, but he has shared little information with the public about the state of his health beyond the fact that he has twice been treated for the disease since spring 2011. Speculation about Chavez's health problems has generated considerable uncertainty among his supporters, especially since he has not anointed a successor. Should Chavez appear to be losing the election, die suddenly, or withdraw from public life for health reasons, tensions are likely to rise in Venezuela, especially if the public suspects that Chavez has used extra-constitutional means to preclude or invalidate an opposition victory in order to sustain his regime's hold on power. Protests over such actions, which could turn violent, may in turn lead to the imposition of martial law and the further curtailment of democratic rights in Venezuela. This would almost certainly trigger a major political crisis in the Western Hemisphere that pits countries seeking to restore democracy and the rule of law in Venezuela—including the United States—against those who support Chavez and the principle of noninterference in the internal affairs of other states. Longstanding U.S. efforts to promote good governance in Latin America as well as cooperation on a range of political, economic, and security challenges in the region would be threatened as a consequence.
Accordingly, the United States should seek free and fair elections in Venezuela. If Chavez or a replacement candidate is defeated, it should offer to help promote an orderly, peaceful transition. If Chavez is reelected in a process judged acceptably free and fair, the United States should seek to reset the bilateral relationship with an eye toward the eventual renewal of high-level communication on areas of mutual interest. If the election results appear fraudulent or apparently legitimate results are nullified, the United States should encourage international pressure to restore democracy and suspend bilateral business as usual until a legitimate government is restored.
The Contingency
Political unrest leading to a suspension of democracy before or after the upcoming elections in Venezuela is not inevitable. If Chavez can participate in...
http://www.cfr.org/venezuela/political-unrest-venezuela/p28936
DPH; Venezuela/ S. America simply have too much oil in a resource hungry world to be left alone in the future.
The proven oil reserves in Venezuela are claimed to be the largest in the world, according to an announcement in early 2011 by President Hugo Chavez and the Venezuelan government. The reported proven reserves reach 297 billion barrels (4.72×1010 m3), surpassing that of the previous long-term world leader, Saudi Arabia.[1] OPEC said that Saudi Arabia's reserves stood at 265 billion barrels (4.21×1010 m3) in 2009.[2]
According to the United States Geological Survey (a bureau of the United States Department of the Interior that employs approximately 8,670 people), the Orinoco Belt alone is estimated to contain 900–1,400 billion barrels (2.2×1011 m3) of heavy crude in proven and unproven deposits.[3] Of this, the United States Geological Survey estimated that 380–652 billion barrels (1.037×1011 m3) could be technically recoverable, which would make Venezuela's total recoverable reserves (proven and unproven) among the largest in the world....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Venezuela
Stratajema
I wanted to reply to your post on last page but decide not to because I basically had already adressed it (my post last page, Re: Cartel gets screwed). But to clarify - do not worry. I don't know how long you've been following the markets, but if you've been around for 1, 2 years, you will remember fall of 2010 - we basically went from 18 to 30$ silver without interruption. Later you will remember an uninterrupted almost price rise from Turd's original bottom at 26$ to 38$. Later the epic build towards 50$.
What I can remember all those 3 times is that we were all under the impression that the physical market had simply won out and that there was nothing left the EE could throw at us. I guess what we all remember is what followed.
Just loaded a chart going back to then. I am going to post it. I find it fascinating that right now we've repeated just that infamous February 2011 price rise. And that we already repeated it once, this January. Makes you think..
Choo-choo....
@DPH
I think I had a little hand in the derailment. But it is Friday. And I'm feeling a little, ooh, anxious if you know what I mean.
HeNateMe
Setting us up to fail?
Today, President Obama released the long-awaited “sequestration report,” detailing the cuts the White House would make to the budget under last year’s Budget Control Act if no deal is reached in Congress.
And there, buried on page 136, is the White House’s proposed cuts to “Embassy Security, Construction, and Maintenance.” $129 million. That’s a full 8.2 percent of the possible sequestrable amount. It’s a massive slash of the budget for our embassies, consulates, and security abroad.
That’s just part of the White House’s ridiculously destructive sequester proposal, which takes a chainsaw to the defense budget. Most defense programs would get a 9.4 percent cut, and a 10 percent cut to other Pentagon accounts. Medicare, by contrast, would take only a 2 percent hit.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/14/Obama-releases-seques...
Anyone else in the 45+ club?
I'm not excited about this yet. I chased the spike up the last time and bought some 10oz bars near the top (4/25/11 and 5/2/11). I'm hoping we'll hit those $50 end of year predictions and put those in the black.
I keep hearing BTFD, but there are preps to get while the prices are still reasonable.
Does it make sense to use the dry powder to risk buying silver and then selling it at the higher price later when the preps are needed? Or do I "plow" it into a little plot with the assistance of cheap money now (low-interest RE loan) and pay for that cheap money with inflated fiat in the future?
@DPH
We may have our foot in the door in Paraguay but the OAS does not want any interference from the US in South America. It's my opinion that Chavez has the support of Brazil and Argentina.
MENA / Sinai peninsula
Some perspective and a history lesson...
http://mabryonline.org/blogs/howard/archives/2007/02/map_of_the_midd_1.html
@Turd
Does this mean that the 'Cartel Raid watch' has been cancelled? I think u said it would expire today.
Btw thanks for all that u do!
Great Turd Talks Metals Today
I love the passion! Please get some help with your potty-mouth Turd
Gold and crude to double in 2 years?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bofa-sees-fed-assets-surpassing-5-trillion-2015-leading-3350-gold-and-190-crude
congrats
to all the big yellow hatted winners. Stop in for a drink in the Speak sometime. Gearhead glad you got an avatar.
@ Agnovice
At this point first I would be sure to have 6 months long term food and water for all those you plan to protect.
I would not hedge to buy Silver. And I would do everything possible to get out of debt.
If you walk amid the burning flames, you shall not be harmed.
Turd,
Be not afraid.
I go before you always.
Come follow me, and
I will give you rest.
Between you and Santa, I have two magnificent men to follow, and you have given me good reason to rest this weekend. Thank you.
Its Friday and We Had a Great Week
So I say Abrázame Bésame Tequilame to all