Be Not Afraid
Not that there isn't plenty to be nervous about...
Let's begin with the MENA. As discussed here back on Wednesday, this type of event slowly builds regional momentum as word spreads of the "indignity". The furor will likely peak in the next few days but it remains to be seen if the global powers that be will let the crisis run its usual course. In the interim, crude continues to build a war premium and the declining dollar is shoving it forward, too. For now, I'm still looking for crude to run toward $101 before consolidating again but don't be surprised if it first reaches up toward $104, instead. The events this weekend and Monday will hold the key.

Open-ended and infinite QE is playing heck with The Pig and the bond market today as renewed inflation expectations are giving buyers pause. ("Wait a second. Hold on a minute. Did I really just buy a 30-year U.S. treasury with a yield of just 3%?") I printed off the long-term charts today so that you'd be aware of a few things.
- Note that both the 10-year note and the Long Bond recently topped with almost identical head-and-shoulder patterns.
- Though the 10-year has clearly broken down through its trendline from the end of QE2, the LB is desperately trying to hang on. Further weakness in the 10-year will break the LB, too, however.
- These are just the beginning stages of the next trend downward, though, as prices of both will undoubtedly regress back to their primary trendlines over time.
- In the 10-year, this means a fall toward 124-125. In the Long Bond, look for a drop toward 123-124.


And The Pig is truly living up (down) to its moniker today. All those calling for a rally to 90+ certainly have eggs on their faces as the trend from the end of QE2 has been decisively broken. Though there will be bounces and rallies from time to time, previous bouts of QE have led to a Pig bottom near 74 and there is no reason to expect a different result this time around. Again, though, this time appears to be different. This time, The Fed is planning QE to infinity. If so, if nothing comes along to slow this runaway train, 74 will fail as will 72. WHEN that happens...

So now would be the time to stick in a QE~ caveat. There is one fly in the ointment, one potential wrench in the works. The United States could suddenly "get religion". Post the election, perhaps dramatic austerity measures will be enforced. Maybe the president will replace The Bernank with a new, more hawkish Fed chairman. A decision could be made to raise rates and "take our medicine". We'll wring the monetary excesses out of the global system and deal forthrightly with the incumbent deflation.
Rrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiiiggggggggghhhhhhhttttttttt..........
OK, since all of the steps above are highly unlikely, to say the least, let not your heart be troubled by the price action of the metals today. Sure, it would have been nice if The Cartels had simply run up the white flag yesterday and joined us all on the long side. But never forget that their job has always been to manage the ascent. There are dynamic new forces coming to fore that will soon force their hands and leave them no choice but, in the meantime, please accept days like today just as you accepted the last 12 months: A gift of time for you to continue to prepare. Knowing what you know about QE~, you should be jumping for joy that silver is just $34.60/ounce this morning. You should feel blessed that you can purchase even more gold at just $1773/ounce. There is no way that The Cartels will be able to continue with their destructive ways. The extraordinary, global demand for physical metal continues unabated and will only increase with time as recognition grows that fiat debasement is not a temporary trend. Combine this physical demand with still-unrecognized, historic, vindicative imbroglio that is soon to wash upon their shores, and you get a Cartel that will be forced to recognize the flawed absurdity of "business as usual".
Just keep buying the dips.


And we've got some hats to send out again. Yesterday's contest was a lot of fun and I certainly saw some very insightful entries. I intended to pay out hats to the top 3 finishers but I couldn't decide on 3rd place so we had a dead heat for show. Keep in mind that the closing Globex prices yesterday were $1767.20 and $34.68.
In 3rd we have: "gearhead_24" and "Apathetic or Whatever".
Submitted by gearhead_24 on September 13, 2012 - 10:22am.
Extended QE announced as the Fed "deems" necessary in future intervals. Buys mortgage backed securities.
Not a chartist but I did see silver triple tap 32.95 ish on Kitco chart. Tells me going up BWTFDIK. Silver $34.60 Gold $1770
Submitted by Apathetic or Whatever on September 13, 2012 - 10:06am.
Fed: announces $500b in mbs purchases along with an extension of twist into the 1st quarter of next year. Gold: 1770 Silver: 34.75
In 2nd place, we have the slightly more prescient "StevenBHorse" who chimed in with this gem:
Submitted by StevenBHorse on September 13, 2012 - 9:45am.
Inflation is transitory due to the recent weather, expected to moderate in further quarters. Formal QE 3 announced, open ended but with a minimum of $600B through MBS and Treasury purchases. Interest rates pegged at zero through mid 2015. Interest on reserves to remain at 50 bps. Au- 1756 Ag- 34.50
And the clear winner was this spookily-accurate entry from "Deeper":
Submitted by Deeper on September 13, 2012 - 9:22am.
With no definite start date or timeline, only specifying open ended MBS and bond purchases. Extend ZIRP policy through mid 2015.
Closing Price today $1769.50 Gold, $34.69 Silver
All four of you need to send me your shipping information at tfmetalsreport at gmail dot com.
As usual, I'll add thoughts later today, once I see the CoT. I'll also try to begin a new thread tomorrow for your weekend enjoyment, too. Speaking of the weekend...I hope yours is safe, fun and relaxing. Keep an eye on the headlines, though, as worldwide craziness could break out at any time. Then, be sure to come back on Monday as we begin another volatile, but fun, week.
TF
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Comments
WTF
The 2013 Silver Lunar Year of the Snake coin features a snake curled around a tree branch. The Chin...
view moreStill AA-. Seriously?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/egan-jones-downgrades-us-aa-aa
I mean, I guess you're guaranteed to "get your money back" but at what value?
Would a corporate bond that promises to return a 50% or less inflation-adjusted premium to the buyer at maturity be rated AA-? Not likely...
Rhodium
I wonder if turd can do a chart for Rhodium. Geez. should have picked some of that stuff up.
Metals
I expected more volatility today, seems almost to quiet.
Stinking taqqiya.
What a rancid pile of stinking taqqiya.
<Edit: Thanks for the input, Ted. What a great way to start the new forum.>
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/4188/radical-islam#comment-212592
Better Off...
Cartel Gets Screwed!!!
As expected, they were fucking loaded. Ready to absolutely drop the hammer and screw everybody.
As of Tuesday evening, The Cartels had driven their net and gross short positions to nearly the exact levels of 2/28/12. The Bernank clearly caught them by complete surprise and with their pants down. As many have stated, much of yesterday's huge rise was short-covering. The OI numbers today would seem to bear that out.
Now the fun starts. The fucking pricks are trapped short and the whole world wants physical precious metal to protect against currency debasement. It may start slowly but price is going to accelerate higher from here in the weeks ahead as the short-covering Cartels begin to panic, once again.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Sorry Mr TF
Didn't see your post before I posted.
Eurozone Bailout fund to the Rescue... it will do wonders...
Turd- You mention flyover
I have noticed the C-130 jumboliners flying over the house daily at about noon. These are flying north and could be coming from McChord AFB. They don't have military markings on them.
I've also noticed low flying helicopters at night flying south. The only thing I can say about these are that they are about the size of a big sikorsky. 30 passenger?
Just odd movements in the sky is all.
That's OK, Ted
I just moved it for you.
Car loans
I can go one better (or worse). Offered to my stepson (1st ever steady job, but only 30 hrs per week @ $8/hr - still lives at home so no significant housing expenses except help with utilities) a $2400 loan to be repaid @ $200 per month for a year to make a low but cash offer on a $3000 or best offer used car he was looking at. (alright - my real motive is that I'm tired of driving him home from work at 11). He turned me down. The local bank (where his avg daily checking balance is probably under $100) agreed to loan him $5000 for 5 years on another 6 year old car instead. No need to have anyone co-sign.
A five year loan on a six year-old car to someone with no credit history, a spotty (at best) work history, and no assets except the car, which is instantly worth 30% less than the debt attached to it.
Insane on his part and the bank's.
Barack Carter...
Rhodium
Just bought a rhodium 1 oz bar last thursday for 1300 :) www.goldeneaglecoin.com
LOL thanks.
Thanks!
REPLY @ RHODIUM....
RHODIUM is really not worth bothering about. Hell, there isn't a one day chart for Rhodium on Kitco. Sometimes you may only see a few dozen trades for the damn metal...LOL.
Here is one of my charts from the article I will have posted here on Turd's blog this weekend:
This is not one of the better charts, but it shows that with all that supposed HUGE SHALE GAS PRODUCTION from the BARNETT SHALE FIELD in Texas, overall NAT GAS Production in Texas has fallen since 2008.
The GREAT SHALE GAS & OIL MIRACLE will become more of a fraud. I will discuss this in detail and how this will impact gold and silver.
Cartel Gets Screwed
I don't disagree but this is entirely counter-intuitive to their past behavior of trading on inside knowledge. Where are the price crushing algos? I actually miss those algos. I am going to name my next dog Algo.
I'm thinking
of some way out of the money calls on DEC SI. 50.00$ just might be a reality.
Numbers
Numbers does not add up for me. Ben says that will buy 40 billion per month, but US needs some 1.2 trillion a year, or 100 billion a month. Is someone else buying 60 billions of treasuries? I don't think so...
Rhodium?
Dammit man, the play is SILVER!
Turdisms ...
Add MENA and MOPE to the line up?
Thanks ...
And with that, Jager earns a
And with that, Jager earns a spot on my ignore list. Kudos.
Short Stack has a slightly longer leash, as he actually has something to say most of the time. If the hate speech continues, he will be gone as well.
Remember folks, the ignore button is like a miniature ban. Once everyone ignores you, it is the same as a regular ban.
I'm shocked!--(not really)
US Credit Rating Cut by Egan-Jones ... Again
Ratings firm Egan-Jones cut its credit rating on the U.S. government to "AA-" from "AA," citing its opinion that quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve would hurt the U.S. economy and the country's credit quality.
In its downgrade, the firm said that issuing more currency and depressing interest rates through purchasing mortgage-backed securities does little to raise the U.S.'s real gross domestic product, but reduces the value of the dollar.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49037337
Obama administration approves first 29 work permits for illegals
Obama administration approves first 29 work permits for young illegal immigrants
While some remain wary about coming forward, 82,000 young illegal immigrants sought work permits from the Obama administration in the past month, and a small group of 29 people learned their applications were approved in recent days.
Soon, Mayra Gomez could join them. She and her husband, a private and mechanic in the U.S. Army Reserve, received a letter at their East Palo Alto home on Monday from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services telling Gomez to come to the agency's San Francisco office to get her fingerprints taken.
Once a sign of a looming deportation, this fingerprint check was a message to Gomez she had one final step before she can get a work permit.
"I'm thinking about it all the time," said the 23-year-old UC Berkeley graduate, whose family brought her across the border from Mexico when she was a child.
Gomez declined a well-paying job offer this summer because she has no legal right to work, but that could change soon. More than just a job, however, Gomez said she is looking forward to living without the constant fear she could be torn apart from her U.S. citizen husband and their 1-year-old son.
Demographers estimate more than 1.2 million young illegal immigrants, and about 350,000 in California, could immediately qualify for the Obama administration's two-year work permits and protection from deportation, but nationwide only 82,361 had applied in the first month since the Obama administration began accepting applications on Aug. 15.
Officials said it will take an average of four to six months before applicants get an answer. For Gomez and some others in the Bay Area, however, the notice is coming sooner. She applied on Aug. 28 and has her fingerprint appointment in two weeks.
The federal government said Friday it has now scheduled 63,717 such "biometric" appointments at immigration offices around the country, and 1,660 cases have gone through the background check and imminently await a decision. Twenty-nine cases have already been approved.
"By approving some cases quickly, it alleviates some of the fears of other applicants," said Mark Silverman of the San Francisco-based Immigrant Legal Resource Center.
An immigration lawyer in the Bay Area since 1983, Silverman said he was pleasantly surprised that so many people have already applied but knows more will come out of the shadows once they see signs that the promised relief actually works.
"The same thing happened during the amnesty program of '87 and '88," Silverman said. "After people saw their friends and neighbors were getting their applications approved, that encouraged more people to apply."
The immigration agency recently emailed San Francisco resident Sarah Souza informing her it received her application and was routing it to a Southern California processing center. Never before was Souza so delighted to get a form letter. <Rest of the Article>
___________________________________________________
The Rule of Law..... doesn't exist! Obummer decided to ignore the law and issue a decree that the laws passed and signed by the Representatives of the People are no longer valid..... and now he is handing out work permits. This is just awesome... not!
Refresher Video
Here is a little refresher video I found up at Bro Johns site...
Well worth the time to watch, and a good one to send to family and friends. (( That is, if you are a leader and are trying to help enlighten the sheeple ))
It obviously does not tell the whole story, but we cannot force feed college courses to a third grade mentality. We need to start with small suggestions. Sorry puck, I know you would disagree.
Enjoy.
@AGAUINVEST RE: Car Loan
Actually, while I don't think it's ever a good idea to take out a car loan, taking it from the bank is probably a better idea than borrowing from friends or family. Lots of relationships have been ruined over the years by such a situation, I consider going to my family for money as a last desperate resort after all else has failed.
Thankfully, I haven't been in that position since I landed a full-time permanent position in the late 90's, but I'd move heaven and earth to find a way other than borrowing from family.
I loaned my brother money several years ago, but I made it clear to him that it was a gift, not a loan. He was free to pay me back, but I expected nothing in return. I won't loan money to friends or family, but I'm perfectly happy to give it to them if they are 1) in need and 2) are reasonably responsible people.
He never paid me back, by the way, but I didn't care. Because it wasn't a "loan". It was a gift, and our relationship is intact.
Lady Gaugau
FYI: Middle East North Africa, Management of Perspective Economics
@ TMosley..
Stupid is....As stupid does.
Your tax dollars pay me for my information. Too bad you've stopped your ears up to get any value from what has been taken from you.
@tmosley
hate speech
--------------
Is that "as serious" or "more serious" than a "hate crime"?
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Sadly, tmosley's "well thought out response" to my question (which told me to perform an act which is physically impossible) was deleted by the mods (for understandable reasons). As such, my response to him, which simply said that I probably wouldn't be able to "go on", or do what he suggested, knowing that I'm on his IU list, was also deleted as there was "no known post" (don't worry tmosley, I got to read it before it was deleted:)
Triumph in Defeat - Euro Ruling Not as Simple as It Seems
Have you guys seen this article?
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/triumph-in-defeat-ruling-on-esm-in-germany-not-as-simple-as-it-seems-a-855692.html
Essentially, Der Spiegel suggests that the Germans may have pulled of a genious trick, considering the fact that the Bernank hit the print button within 24 hours of the supposed German “green light”:
-:-
Triumph in Defeat – Euro Ruling Not as Simple as It Seems
[...]
Before the European Stability Mechanism can be ratified, the German government must answer complicated legal questions.
[...]
The question of how exactly these legal declarations are supposed to be implemented is likely to cause headaches among legal experts in the German government and the president’s office.
[...]
In the ruling, the court says that Germany “must express clearly that it does not wish to be bound by the ESM Treaty in its entirety if the reservations made by it should prove to be ineffective.”
According to the German parliament’s attorney of record, Martin Nettesheim, this means that the German government must affix a formal reservation under international law and, at the very minimum, must inform and solicit a response from the other euro-zone member states and provide them with a reasonable deadline within which to enter any objections.
-:-
The bottomline is that you don’t just unilaterally declare an exit clause into an international treaty without consent from the other member states….
Ooops.