Come Tuesday
Summer's almost over. I hope you're enjoying your weekend but get ready. Come Tuesday, it's game on.
We stand at the edge. Prices have broken out but Cartel resistance is steep. The latest CoT shows their malicious intent. In gold, The Cartel net short position grew by over 32,000 contracts last week with the gross short position growing by over 10%! A huge, desperate move which has brought The Cartel net short position to its "worst" level since 2/28/12. Yikes! In fact, over the 8/14/12 - 8/28/12 time period, the price of paper gold rallied $68 and the total Gold Cartel net short position grew by 59,000 contracts. It looks like someone would very much prefer that gold not rise much further.
Though the Cartel selling in silver is just as prevalent, it is of a different stripe. For the reporting week, to supply the paper necessary to keep price in check, instead of adding shorts The Silver Cartel dumped longs. Of course the question is: Why? Are they selling into strength and booking profits? I suppose. But are they also remiss to add new shorts? Of course, it's impossible to say. What is possible to say though is that the CoT situation has only "deteriorated" in the days since, particularly Friday.
Finally, it is curious to see so much of the fresh shorting and selling that is coming from the smaller banks. Uncle Ted calls these banks the "raptors". The raptors treat the paper markets as their virtual jungle where they prey upon the specs by collusively following the moves of the bigger banks. In gold, the selling last week was almost evenly split between the big banks and the smaller banks. In silver, though, 90% of the selling came from the smaller banks, not JPM. Again, why? Is this just a one-week trend?
So next week is set up for some significant volatility.
- All market participants are back from holiday.
- The charts are undeniably bullish, meaning spec money should continue to roll in.
- Prices are reaching into areas where I would expect some major Cartel short selling/resistance, i.e. $1725 and $33
- After a week of rising prices, we get the August BLSBS on Friday. It's hard to imagine anything but a negative print being met with a major attempt to rig prices lower.
For now, here's where we sit.
And do you recall this chart from last week? Notice that gold spent 17 weeks above the range in 2011 and now it has completed 17 weeks below the range in 2012. Next week, does gold finally move back within the range?
Silver is at a similar crossroads.
So, get ready for a crazy and wild week. Though I certainly wouldn't fault a trader for booking a few profits, everyone else just needs to prepare for some volatility. Prices are truly headed much, much higher but not without the usual shenanigans.
See you Tuesday.
TF
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Comments
Bluesman
You can also be last when you feel that position appropriate.
@Bluesman re: I vow to now...
I vow to now constantly refresh the page so as to be one of the elete turdistans who proclaim to hold the coveted FIRST.
Hey, knock yourself out. But I wouldn't recommend it.
re Doomsday Preppers
My hubby worked for Bruce Beach - the builder of Ark II in Ontario. Sometimes crazy people actually are crazy.
@Urban
I think (hope) we get two weeks of consolidation to let the summer crowd in. Then onward. Too high too fast always has consequences.
Preppers
@Xty, wow, this Bruce Beach?
http://www.webpal.org/SAFE/aabeachbiography/index.htm
And I was feeling envious of BoG's prep activities in the last thread! This guy's got us all beat by 30 years!
[edit] haha, he looks like Santa Claus!
El Niño is on the way
Weather holds the key to the world's food price volatility
The World Bank's Food Price Index soared by 10pc in July, but global grain stocks are currently high enough to prevent a repeat of 2008's food riots, according to the World Bank. Things could rapidly change though.
The index, which weighs the US dollar price of internationally traded food commodities, shows that sharp price increases were felt across the board in July. Rice, which fell 4pc, was the only major exception.
The price of maize and wheat rose by a quarter and soybean prices jumped 17pc over the month, with increases prompted by the worst drought in 50 years in the US Midwest. Poor weather in Russia has also added to supply-side fears.
Maize and soybean prices in July exceeded those observed during the June 2008 and February 2011 peaks. In 2008 food riots were seen in parts of Africa, South America and the Middle East.
The World Bank was reassured by the decline in rice prices. "Large supplies of rice from bumper crops and increasing competition for Thailand (the world's largest exporter) have led to a recent rice price decline," it said. "Weak demand from the eurozone and a slight growth slowdown in China and the developing world in general all favour price moderation."
However, it warned that "the jury was still out", citing potential threats such as major producers pursuing "panic policies" such as restricting exports and weather developments in the near future "especially related to el Niño".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/9515859/Weather-holds-the-key-to-the-worlds-food-price-volatility.html
September: Europe going forward
(Sorry...Repost from last thread. Seems more topical here going forward)
Sorry for any disharmony up above. I'm not angry despite how it read. No offense taken by you, just crabby today for some
@Blue...Does your moniker imply you like the Blue's? Throw me a few names maybe and I'll try to make it right.
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I have no idea how any of this plays out but my sense of it is that we've turned the corner in late August/early Sept. again just like previous years and the PM's/miners are going higher but not in a nutso/parabolic way (hopefully). The slower and steadier the better imho.
I'm guessing that Monday ushers in some renewed and continued EU teeth gnashing and market volatility right out of the gate possibly tonight or early this week and the business at hand over there is about to get tackled and dealt with in some form with all the usual hand wringing and dis-information to keep everyone off balance.
I think the EU bond buying this time around is the key driver of any market movements that are coming and it will be bullish just like all the other large/steady influxes of new liquidity. The hot money from any infusion of EU stimulus that they dole out will find it's way over here in the US markets in a big way and D.C. and the markets will enjoy the benefits of that hot money. The Fed doesn't need to do anything stimulative right now because all they have to do is change the tone of their message (which they've been doing the last couple times publicly) and wait for the EU stimulus to trickle or flood the US markets and bump up all the major indexes.
The other factor is that they simply can not continue to keep gold at bay because they intend to use it as a Tier 1 capital asset. They need it to be as valuable as possible if they intend to use it because of Basel III. They merely need to keep letting he rise in price steady and not let it get away from them and cause the up/down price volatility we've been witnessing. I think we are at the beginning of TPTB/BIS letting the price start to rise because they need to for their own purposes going forward, never ours.
If they are going to use gold in some manner in a larger way going forward they need for it's appearance to be more stable and more valuable and not as risky or temperamental in behavior as it has appeared to the general public. Gold is about to enter the mainstream consciousness and it needs to appear valuable and not risky. Basel III eventually will guarantee that is exactly what happens.
I'm looking for lots of uncertainty and volatility to break loose in the EU starting this week early on as a fear driven means for them to act fairly boldly. Imho, the EU bond buying mechanism they choose to implement (and they will do so) is the key and despite what ZH or other MSM article's say about the idea of a fixed/floating hard cap is what I think they'll do even if they deny it the whole time. It makes sense in this environment because if the big money starts to hesitate or stops buying bonds due to trust issue's they're (world govt's) screwed royally.
In essence, what they'll do is what the Fed/Treasury has been doing here selectively and on the relative hush-hush. They'll selectively and consistently purchase assets/bonds when they see a price or borrowing level they're not comfortable with they'll intervene just like the US does now. (Complete MOPE in the global bond markets)
This could be a September to remember and they always seem to zig-zag around late August and September anyway. Get ready for a EU dog and pony show that ends up with some sort of asset and bond purchase program (even if the scope of it is fuzzy) because if they do nothing they'll end up with the uncontrollable market/gold reaction that they don't want and haven't allowed the whole time, for the most part.
Unplugged: Eric Clapton/ Full Concert HD
@Fix & SS
On second though, f 'em. They should have been paying attention.
Yup, that Bruce Beach
I had a search on the web, but they have pretty much buried (ha ha) this story, about Ark I. Mr Beach bought an old wreck from Chile and enticed youth there. The boat was renamed (always bad luck), Canada's Tomorrow. I remember a headline from the Globe and Mail, I think, that read something like:
Canada's Tomorrow, a Rusting Hulk Today.
I found a link to a web archive of one article that mentions some of the students. Hubby quit working for him before and because of this incident.
DRS and Mr Sinclair
HI All
I was thinking a good topic to discuss is what you all think of DRS.
I have been trying to follow Santa;s advise on all the miners I own with no luck.
I also find it very confusing. I;m starting to think the people at my clearing house
think I;m nuts.
Thanks Turd and all you posters . I love this site
@ turd
Turd,
When you mention the new gold shorts, am I correct in assuming these were added up to tues? So a lot could have been closed during the take downs on thurs / Fri? Something caused a lot of upside volume on Friday?
First, second....whatever....
Love the newbies that don't get the first second thing....it's beautiful.
Bought in on the algo dip on Friday and doubled down on my December 50 calls, looking for a big buy from the physical traders on the comex closed day to push this baby up to the place where it belongs.
Got a feeling this week is gonna be a doozie....ECB bank license..... Fed easing...........jpm silver exposé.........allocated gold libor scandal......
The future is ours!
DRS / SEC
Holding Your Securities—
Get the Facts
As an individual investor, you have up to three choices when it comes to holding your securities:
This publication explains these choices in greater detail, by laying out the advantages and disadvantages of each and by answering frequently asked questions. Depending on the type of security and where you purchase it, you may or may not have all these choices about how your securities are held. For example, not all companies offer direct registration, and some no longer issue physical certificates. You should ask your broker or the company what options you have.
Physical Certificate
When you buy a security, whether through your broker or from the company itself, you can ask to have the actual stock or bond certificates sent to you. You may have to pay a nominal fee for the added expense of issuing a paper certificate. It's important that you safeguard your certificates until you sell or transfer your securities. It can be difficult to prove that you once owned a certificate that has been lost, stolen, or destroyed. Your broker — or the company or its transfer agent — will generally charge a fee to replace a lost or stolen stock certificate. For more information on safeguarding your securities, please read our "Fast Answer" on Lost or Stolen Stock Certificates.
The advantages of holding a physical certificate include:
- The company knows how to reach you and will send all company reports and other information to you directly.
You may find it easier to pledge your securities as collateral for a loan if you hold the certificates yourself in physical certificate form.The disadvantages include:
http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/holdsec.htm
"whatever he's doing he's doing it with ... taxpayer's money"
Urban Roman
If you have a lot of cash to deploy.... don't chase prices higher. Buy a little now and wait.
BTW... I hoped you learned an important lesson in retrospect. You should have been buying with both hands a few months back when everyone said silver was going to negative 12, or something. I did!
I am getting better at timing purchases. As much as I love and respect everyone here, use this forum and others to gage sentiment. Then do the opposite. I bought silver on Thursday at 30.44 when everyone was calling for a FOMC J-Hole FUTF. We got the quick and pathetic FUTF and then an epic FUBM that I thoroughly enjoyed all the way up.
Long story short. Don't chase prices up. Buy a little now to scratch your itch. Wait for sentiment to turn south and buy aggressively. However, I hope you get your fill before the HEH explosion commences. Even if it does, buy gold instead of silver if the ratio become more favorable...
Hillsie
"Love the newbies that don't get the first second thing....it's beautiful."
Thanks for that nugget. That's a much better way to put it and one I should've kept in mind.
Anyone who likes classic horror films might check The SpeakEasy in a bit. I would never post it out here because quite frankly it's brutal and wayyy off topic.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/207264#comment-207264
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SpeakEasy,NewsTicker,iCandy-Vids http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/frivolity-forum
Doubling down on my advice...
Always be buying! Its crazy cheap right now!
(warning strong language for sensitive little ears, but well worth it!)
Are you interested? I know you are...
@Admiral
What is HEH? I haven't been around much.
Heh was the god of infinity. Is that the joke?
This will ultimately be survival of the fittest.
@ Dagney,
yes, if people who were going to buy metals "when the time was right",
haven't bought them yet, then the simple answer is,
they loose.
After all, it's not like they haven't had enough warning,
and for some very genuine economic reasons, it's becoming very uncomfortable to wait much longer.
About four years ago, I became dreadfully aware of the fact that our entire economy, and monetary system was headed towards an implosion.
I cleaned out my bank account, and spent it all on gold and silver.
I have no regrets about that,
however,
my main purpose in doing so was that I intended to hedge against an environment where it would become nearly impossible to earn a living.
These days have been creeping up on all of us,
as it is widely reported, even in the mainstream press,
it is getting increasingly difficult to earn a living.
I was in fact hoping that if it became virtually impossible to earn a living,
the circumstances causing this would cause gold and silver to explode in value.
I feel that we are at that edge right now.
I am personally witnessing an economic disaster here in upstate New York,
where foreclosures and unemployment have become an epidemic.
It's a getting rough to earn a living in this economy.
If the gold and silver do not go up in value soon,
then it will not have been much of an advantage for me to have bought in the first place.
You see, unless I start getting some good paying jobs soon,
I will have to start cashing in my precious metals for no other reason than to pay for my health care insurance, and my taxes.
The local town board would not hesitate for 1 min. to sell my house for its taxes.
The bottom line is,
I genuinely cannot wait much longer.
Dag
HEH is Turd's call for a Hot Explosive and Historic move.
I'm on board and all buckled-in for the launch. I know you are as well.
Damn stinky Turd...
it might have already been said but you made the Max Keiser page...got my bro to convert his sons savings account to a 1 oz gold Philharmonic! Slowly but surely, one by one, you pieces of shi...I mean turdites...keep stackin...never doubt why your here...those reasons are still ringing loud and clear...the sickness is rising...never doubt how you feel...your "DOWN WITH THE SICKNESS"...
*I tipped myself so it wasn't an odd number...:)
the wisdom of willy wonka
Gold will go nuts in August
I guess you will be familiar with this quote but has it?
Aug 1 was 1599 according to Kitco. We closed Aug 31 1691. So up $92. That's up 5.75% is that really going nuts?
Silver was $27.87 and now 31.74 that's 13.9%.
If gold had achieved 13.9% I'd be willing to concede and element of goingi nuts.
Still pleased but left feeling expected more. Is this just what would have happened anyway given global economics of the moment and seasonal buying or does it reflect the spirit of Bill Murphy's insiders information?
refreshing all day is refreshing
it keeps me from getting the blues, been running around and around all day
@ Urban
I'm sure that he is not Santa..... but it sort of looks like Puck.
Bluesguy- relax we are all on the same team here. I assume since you just signed up three weeks ago that you have not been lurking long.
Just like the Bernank says about gold. Being first is just a silly tradition. Welcome aboard. Just don't lose your stash while saying first when you refresh.
@Silverbee
The point here is "going nuts" is a subjective statement. As such it is not meant to meet your expectations nor mine. Just the person who said it.
the gold standard...
I wonder why the "MSM" seems to present the gold standard as a binary decision? I thought RP was more interested in a "competing" currency type setup...A pure gold and silver standard seem ridiculous to me...the more "elements" the better right? Sovereigns, old money, etc have enough "fire power" to over take a few "elements" no?...Another thing I keep thinking of...If gold and silver, especially gold (maybe plat, not sure) really moon shotted (this a word?) , is it possible to filter ocean water and remove heavy metals via nano type filter technologies? A pure gold and silver system seems too easy to control...
According to Jimmy Buffett Tuesday is a bust, but Friday ...
For the gang at the Fish House
Tuesday on the island
Not much goin' on
The parties are all over
They ended just past dawn
The jungle drums are beating
With the tales from late last night
'Cause stories bear repeating
For everyone's delight
...
It's hump day on the island
The lines have all gone dead
All the juicy news is history
I guess everything's been said
But when the eagle flies on Friday
And the boys break out the rum
And the joint begins to jumpin'
And you'll hear those hot lines hum
http://www.sing365.com/music/lyric.nsf/Coconut-Telegraph-lyrics-Jimmy-Buffett/840D727336CD54B5482569A10014B3CD
prepping
Admittedly, and not proud to be so, but I'm not nearly as prepped as some or most of you sound to be.
There is probably a few reasons for that, none of which is that I don't see the value or need etc. Quite the contrary. I'm always feeling a lot less prepared as I hear everyone discuss their own preps.
I'm hoping and mentally preparing to do so on a better level in the near future and just haven't been able to muster the resources due to some priorities and dwelling more on stacking. But I have every intention to do so asap when I can do so.
A piece of property out in the country sounds so far out of reach right now and probably the most desirable thing I could hope for and want.
I think it boils down to me not being surrounded by a severely degraded cityscape/suburban environment around me. I don't feel threatened and I don't see any threats of decay or attitude. Quite the contrary.
From what I know and have read/seen and also hear from many of you, I fully realize the need for the prepping part of it but I haven't quite gone there just yet. At some point soon (hopefully) I'll go full bore on it and catch up and possibly exceed what I can't even imagine right now.
That might sound like a lot of hopium and "too little, too late" and maybe that's true. I'm 'hoping' for things to not quite unravel to the level we think it could or will get to and that this period right now will stagnate longer then we would hope for, like Japan except on steroids and for a shorter period of time (10-12 yrs.)
At that point and way before then, I'll be prepped. The question is...will I (like some of you also) have enough time to satisfactorily catch up?
I think so.