Still Waiting

To help keep you awake, I was able to find a few things for you to look at.

If looking for an insomnia cure, you're not going to find it in these charts. The only one worth noting is the crude chart where dips to $95 are being bought and the situation in Syria is looking increasingly tenuous.

Just a few minutes ago, ZH linked an article that discusses "the gold standard debate" in some very nice detail. You should take the time to read it: http://www.acting-man.com/?p=19285

I was/am perplexed by the latest open interest data. I summarized my confusion with this comment from the previous thread, copied below for your convenience:

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on August 29, 2012 - 1:30pm.
MODERATOR
Totally F'd up OI
Seriously. Makes absolutely no sense.
Yesterday, gold fell $6. Total gold OI was UP 10000 contracts with 6000 being added to the Oct12. The Oct12 is a very light delivery month and it expires in four weeks. Regardless, Oct12 OI rose from 28,215 to 34,503. I've been tracking the Oct12 OI since 8/1 and it has never been over 30,000 and yesterday it surges to 34,503?!? Additionally, total gold OI has now risen by over 41,000 contracts (10%+) in just the past seven sessions and is now at its highest level since 7/19.
For the CoT week, the price of gold rose by $27  and the total gold OI rose by 28,000 contracts.
And get this for silver: Total silver OI fell by 5,300 as most exiting the Sep12 did not immediately roll to the Dec12. OK, fine. Whatever. But while gold OI is surging, silver is falling. In fact, yesterday's OI is the lowest it has been since the end of July and, over the same seven sessions where gold OI has risen by 41,000 contracts, silver OI has fallen 4,000.
For the CoT week, the price of silver rose by $1.45 and the total silver OI fell by 6,000 contracts.

And our pal, The Golden Jackass, has just released his latest public commentary. Below is a link to the full text and a few choice excerpts. Jim and I hope to record another podcast soon so I thought you might like to get caught up with all the latest jackassedness.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1346270400.php

The insider conversation, often called chatter when it becomes deafening in tone, is that Morgan Stanley faces imminent failure and ruin. Almost two weeks ago, the Jackass provided a tip to Bill Murphy of GATA to post on his popular LeMetropole Cafe that Morgan Stanley fund managers and high ranking employees were preparing for the firm's implosion. A subscriber to the Hat Trick Letter has a good friend whose father works as a fund manager and provided the story. It was not detailed, and bore no follow-up after my request. The older employees are selling all of their stock, some legacy stock from one or two decades ago. Many workers are making contingency plans for their next positions in another firm. When Lehman Brothers was killed, thousands of employees had to find new jobs, some without success. In the last week, the shock waves are being heard from internal Wall Street sources in an unequivocal manner. The implosion is in progress, like the collapse of several platforms and structural cables. The inside is caving in, and the ranking members recognize it, even talk about it openly. Much discussion swirls about a transition to antiquated software that is greatly disturbing the trading desks, causing tremendous problems at precisely the wrong time. A redux of the Knight disaster could be in progress. The part that many analysts might miss is that Morgan Stanley has perhaps over 300 thousand private stock brokerage accounts, with over 17,500 brokers. In the past two decades, MS merged with Dean Witter and Smith Barney to become the premier stock house with the most private accounts of any US-based stock brokerage firm. The Morgan Stanley failure might feature the first theft of private stock accounts. The critical jump might occur in account thefts from futures brokerage to stock brokerage, which began in November 2011 with MFGlobal, then appeared in July with Peregrine Financial Group (PFG-Best). All private accounts from MFG and PFG have been pilfered, with a blessing of the theft by the courts, seen in the Sentinel Mgmt Group ruling. The federal Appellate court's August ruling sets precedent for future private segregated account thefts, which were once considered sacred and untouchable. No more in the United States, not in the unfolding of criminality that stretches from USGovt offices to top corporate offices, with blessings sprinkled by the courts. The jump would be a major extension of the Fascist Business Model that nobody talks about. The major financial firms can rely upon this appellate court ruling as precedent, so as to protect their legal right to re-hypothecate client funds in their high risk leveraged positions and loans. It sure would be nice to use my neighbor's house and car to firm up my casino weekends. Stay tuned to the ongoing Morgan Stanley implosion, which could force the vanishing act of 50 to  100 thousand private stock accounts. The firm is the largest stock brokerage firm in the land. The dreadful impact will be nasty and might awaken the US masses. MFGlobal and PFG-Best surely did not.

AND

A strongly held Jackass belief goes contrary to many simplistic viewpoints by some smart people within the gold camp. My source has taught me well, but my comprehension is surely lacking in spots. Let it be known that many smart people do not comprehend this phenomenon. A few key colleagues have stated that the big Western banks could be fixed overnight by grand cash dispensation on a grand scale from the Printing Pre$$ by the USFed and Euro Central Bank. Not so, emphatically not so! The big broken banks of the US, London, and Europe cannot be fixed by printed money. They have vast and complex broken paper asset structural problems that cannot be repaired. It is like a poorly designed car with badly calibrated cylinder strokes, misaligned transmission drive shaft, an inadequate cooling system, and poorly designed torsion bars going into the shop. The best mechanics could not repair it, as they would suggest scrapping the entire mess. Such are the big banks. They possess wrong sided positions that have started a chain reaction of disasters. Their positions constantly trigger margin calls. Cash cannot fix their predicaments. Their margin credit extension is abnormal, outside the usual channels. They are stuck, unable to comply with arranged contracts from years ago under different rules. Their lattice work is broken and not repairable, not with cash.
 The Eastern Coalition is busily applying the screws, confronting the deeply decayed margin inadequacy, and forcing relinquishment of gold bullion. The loss of gold loudly signifies that gold is money, and cash is not. The big banks have broken pieces that invite opponent attacks, like the JPMorgan position with sovereign bonds and their complex USTBond structure defending the artificial 0% rate by the Interest Rate Swaps. The big banks also have major unresolvable problems with allocated gold taken, that the owners want back, including extremely powerful people.
 Put the two extreme extraordinary problems together and one can conclude that gold from Allocated Accounts was improperly used as collateral on leveraged trades gone bad!! They face margin calls that are satisfied only by relinquishment of gold bullion. The smoking gun will slowly come into view to launch a new banker scandal. The scandal over Allocated Gold accounts will eclipse the MFGlobal case, and lead to the Gold price rising over $5000 per ounce. Over 40 thousand metric tons of gold have been improperly used, much in this manner, laced throughout the banking structures. No hyperbole here.
 Printed money cannot and will not fix any of such problems. The big banks are ruined and realize finally they are lined up for a slaughterhouse. Their only remaining option is to cut deals with the new masters and their sheriff. In time they will not be able to locate sufficient volumes of gold bullion to make the margin calls go away. Since February 29th, they have forfeited over 6000 metric tons of gold. Eventually they will run out of gold from Swiss castles and Roman catacombs. Then the game is over and a new dangerous chapter begins.

AND

Gold & Silver are awakening from a deep sleep after a year-long price consolidation. While the physical story leans toward growing demand and declining supply, all bullish for the precious metals prices, the paper story continues to reek of strongarms, naked shorting, propaganda, and other devious devices. Prepare for a grand divergence between the physical and paper Gold price, as described and warned in this newsletter for many months. Rumblings continue about JPMorgan being in far more trouble than simply CFTC position limits. They struggle under the gradual breakdown of their derivative machinery that extends far beyond the USTreasury Bond complex, to the currencies and gold market. Renewed hope from August has come for a resurgent price as seasonal factors join with other conditions whereby the bank cartel has weaker hands. Recall the gold cartel has been forced to relinquish over 6000 metric tons in the last six months. The real battleground is with the Gold price in Euro terms, which is pushing for a breakout. That makes sense, since the obvious breakdown is of the European sovereign bonds, the Euro currency, the European big banks, and the Euro Central Bank monetary policy. Notice how the Crude Oil price reveals significant hedging against the USDollar, stubbornly near the $100 per barrel mark despite a fierce global recession. The high cost structure will be maintained, with little relief from relaxation. Recovery will remain an illusion. The Eastern Coalition has not gone away. They still pursue Gold. Perhaps their agents in acquisition are on European holiday. Soon it is back to the desks at work. Expect a price move toward $1800 very soon. Expect a Silver price move also, as it more clearly has broken out from the year-long consolidation, back over $30/oz. Moves in the two metals could come fast and furious. The Eastern world has consistently been big buyers, but now the Western world is seeking safe haven from the ruin in banks and bonds.

http://www.goldenjackass.com/subscribe.html

Have a great evening and overnight.

TF

 

Comments

Dr Jerome's picture

HEH summer

I took some profit on my Sept AGQ call options today.  Decided to stand on the sidelines until after Jackson Hole on Friday.  I just have a feeling that metals will receive another smack. 

Turd says the HEH summer is being delayed...

I plan to buy back in on Friday afternoon, or for sure on Monday, with Decomber AGQ call contracts.

FYI WTFDIK LOL  IDOTMB (I drank one too many beers)  Maybe I ought to be posting in the Speak Easy...

Edit: I believe that Turd is on the inside now, and not just some chart forecaster advising people on PM movement!

Bollocks's picture

Maybe this will help slap silver into shape...

swampgas's picture

3 Reasons China promotes silver

This is from Dr. Jeffrey Lewis of 'Silver-Coin-Investor'. This is his take on the Chinese government's promotion of it's citizens owning silver. A bit over 3 minutes long. 

"Not only has the Chinese government been moving toward holding precious metals in reserve as an alternative to paper currencies like the U.S. Dollar, but it has recently also encouraged its citizens to own precious metals as a way to store their wealth in a valuable physical asset."

​The Chinese are, at some point, going to become much more wealthy than us, with the U.S. government DISCOURAGING PM ownership.

Bollocks's picture

@Byzantium

I will get back to you about your post, just can't do it now, I need to get my head around a few things.

Byzantium's picture

just to add....

I painted a scenario where China and Russia drew a line in MENA, that the US has purposely crossed, and is probing their resolve.

I moot that a deadline or ultimatum was given, for the US to back off, else face consequences. These would not be military in nature, but financial, and most likely, an attack on the weak link, the JPM derivatives.

The US gambles that such measures would rebound on the protagonists anyway, and that they would not dare in the first place. However, with a clear deadline and clearish view of the threatened actions, the western banks are told to ready themselves for summer turbulence as a precaution. It is impossible to put your major banks into a red alert state in total secret; so the fact, and the expected SHTF timing, leaks out to us in the blogosphere via Bill Murphy, Jim Willie and others, who know that something big is on the horizon, with a known timeline.

The JPM edifice has been rotten for years, but danger cannot come from within the western camp, it has to come from the outside. If something has triggered its enemies to find the motivation to finally move against it, then it has to be geopolitical.

If the US & its poodles suddenly tone down their anti-Assad rhetoric, and publicly put Israel back in its box, then get out of any speculative PM positions, because in that scenario, JPM is back in business.

Admiral Ag Bar's picture

A million hat tips to Turd

It matters not the exact date of the HEH explosion.  The fundamentals will win.  We are right. 

Keep stacking while it is on sale!

Turd Ferguson's picture

Not necessarily delayed, doc

MODERATOR

It could start tomorrow. I was simply expecting it to have begun by now.

Response to: HEH summer
Battle Beagle's picture

Ned And Andy Silver Exchange

Turd,

Sounds like you're alluding to Ned and Andy's physical silver exchange being delayed?

Just my attempt to read the "Turds" thoughts......

Byzantium's picture

To Turd

I explained above my own uninformed deductions of how the HEH might play out.

In my musings, I can imagine waking up one morning, and finding that PM prices have gone up by an order of magnitude overnight, in a fashion that we have never seen before.

Does your perspective also accommodate, or even suggest, for such a move?

Thanks  

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

If I were Chinese...

I would probably have someone in Hong Kong stand for delivery of a massive order of silver and when it's not deliverable I would have that person/entity make a loud and very public display/noise about it.

Right around that time would be a great time to make the silver/gold trade in HK highly publicized and known that they're in business and taking orders if London can't fulfill their deliveries.

At what point the Chinese Govt. seizes the initiative is unknown. Hong Kong will first have to blossom after the London debacle and become the go to place for PM's and build a reputation from there. It might not take long for it to establish one as it's already a major hub. I meant in relation to it's newly enhanced status as compared to London's embarrassment or scandal. The spike in PM prices will also garner the worlds attention while at the same time also providing perfect marketing of the HK product and reliability.

If I were Chinese I would know that I have time on my side while my sovereign gold reserves grow even larger and I would wait until I knew that most of the big western gold/silver ETF's were low on phyz and I would go after them as well when the timing seemed right and take as much as I could without any hesitation at all. ( I have to use up all of that foreign reserve USD I have somewhere) And I would make a big deal and some noise about delivery not being met or that it was out of phyz GLD/SLV. Whatever it takes all the while I'm spending USD like wild on PM's in a highly visible manner. Building my reputation the whole time as having a lot of gold/silver. 

It would be sometime after that point when the Euro is in tatters or really wobbly and when the US has hit some other major negative economic milestone that I would offer up the yuan as a viable alternative based on the premise that it is gold/silver backed. I would show the world a picture or video of the most massive gold hoard that has ever been seen or known to mankind  to implant the thought and image in everyone's mind. (It merely needs to be believable and accepted as a viable alternative at that time. The gold in the picture being real is secondary to the actual audacity of the picture/video itself.)

If I were Chinese I would do this within 3-5 years (2016-ish). I think the large Asian buyer who is intent on taking delivery  happens within years end (2012) and gets the ball rolling.

WWIII naturally voids any and all above scenarios as does an out of control and spreading  MENA incident. A major conflict accomplishes many things if  your a weak USD and worried about the gold/yuan scenario challenging your monetary hegemony eventually. A major US banking meltdown would also throw a giant wrench into things for the US but that would be to China's advantage enlightened

I'm not Chinese obviously, but I do expect just about anything to happen and I see something extreme as very likely to be part of the equation from either side.

Missiondweller's picture

So thats why they allowed gold as collateral

"The big banks also have major unresolvable problems with allocated gold taken, that the owners want back, including extremely powerful people."

Remember a few years ago they announced they would make loans with gold being held as collateral??

Maybe because they needed it!

Galearis's picture

6000 TONNES!!??

 Hey Turd, I don't suppose "they" could be "messing" with the COT data do you?
And BTW:
I know these banks are not using all central bank gold here, so some of it is theirs or "borrowed" from GLD, or the COMEX, or hypothecated from client accounts at the LBMA (allocated real bullion). BUT 6000 tonnes in six months is HUGE. To put this in perspective (and I KNOW you know this) 5 YEARS ago Bill Murphy was stating that the European central banks only had 10,000 tonnes left after leasing more than half their gold reserves to suppress the price over the past (then) 6 or seven years....So gold leaving at 1000 tonnes a month certainly suggests that this system is about to see some more collapse in the West...AND there probably is some additional central bank leasing going on...Sprott made that statement (opinion really) as the only way the demand deficit over supply of 2500 tonnes per year could be made up! (And incidentally that figure is somewhat north of the annual global gold production.) So if the demand is rising to show that deficit of demand and 6000 tonnes (12000 tonnes per year RATE) leaving the Western vaults as "initiated" by the bullion banks, and if we assume Jim Willie is correct, then this system has only months left before it implodes. We would seem to be watching the last reckless looting scramble of the crooks who have doomed us...
 
If most of that is theft of private gold,,,,or even if the central banks are in a panic and dumping their last gold reserves, it still means the same thing for the West...
 
Or Jim is mistaken, of course.
 
Time will tell. And, of course, FWIW.
 
Galearis
Silver Alert's picture

Turd, This "torture" is worse

Turd,

This "torture" is worse than being a kid at Christmas and dying to know what is in that present with your name on it.  At least then we could give it a bit of a shake and judge its weight and size to make a guess.  Here - nada, zip, zilch!

You said it's beyond your control.  Does that mean it's in the control of a person(s)/institution and we're waiting for them/it to act or is more like a cumulative series of events that has to run it's course?

Byzantium's picture

@DPH

For China to rock the PM market with intent, is to threaten the USD, and would be construed as an act of war. That is why I believe that nothing to date, came of the alleged 'new sheriff in town' that Jim Willie is always referring to.

So, the capability to disrupt the PM market and dollar, can only be used by China, as a war maneouvre, IMHO. Thus my thesis, that we are at the foothills of such a situation. And only in a war situation, can that sheriff actually use his guns.

In my mind's eye, the recent price action was a shot across the bows. Hence the lack of isolation of JPM; their fellow sharks are still loyal, they have not been given a choice. This current calm would logically be the 'consider your next move Gringo' moment.

RunRunRun's picture

@Byzantium

Interesting musings. Your hypothesis re an aggressive ultimatum from East to West would tie together the current geopolitical conflict and the potential banking meltdown quite neatly. It might also be complete bollocks, but I like the way you're thinking. 

Bugzy's picture

QE and Food

I read somewhere today that if QE is on at JH then the already high food price (read drought) could cause real problems - suggests no QE3.

B

Byzantium's picture

@RunRunRun

refer to my first post in this thread, I can talk bollocks as well as anybody else.

All the same, and all speculation apart, i do believe that it is an axiom that to attack the western banking cartel is an act of war. Therefore, a hostile attack cannot occur in peacetime, and notions of a PM moon-shot could therefore only come from self inflicted systemic implosion, or as a consequence of an actual war.  Other than that, business as usual, and is why the fundamentals do not work on the PM market.

Byzantium's picture

@Galearis

Re 6000 tonnes, it is rumoured that the Vatican has a truly vast amount of gold. If it is not within their tiny borders, then there might be a promissory note where it is supposed to be sitting.

swampgas's picture

It wouldn't surprise me

It wouldn't surprise me if the Chinese were trying to light the fuse on one of JPM's derivative bombs. If I was the Chinese I might even bait JPM into increasing their short position for a harder fall at the time of their choosing.

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

Byzantium

Yep, we'll see it as an act of war from our USD viewpoint. The Chinese only get one shot at this imho.

They'll need to be patient and wait for the right time to almost come to them but can force the issue and press soft buttons behind the scene elsewhere (Gold/Silver/US/EU Treasury markets). Whatever happens I can  say with certainty that the US will absolutely freak out and not take any of it lying down whether it's deserved or not. (None of this is an endorsement by myself either, just an observation)

They're current and historic predisposition to be violent/aggressive, unpredictable and having a proactive posture guarantees it. 'Extreme' will happen and I think they're headed in that direction slowly and surely and purposefully.

Be Prepared's picture

China is not done...

wringing every bit of juice from this situation.  They don't have everything lined up and, more importantly, they are facing a huge change in leadership and the next phase in their 10 year plan.  They are seeing a global economic slowdown that has already started to impact them.  Certainly, they have a substantial cash and resources cushion... but they haven't leveraged their USD holdings completely to their advantage yet.  The Chinese have a long culture of being patient and running multiple games at the same time while keeping each game in isolation of the others.  They are poising themselves to pounce on the multiple fronts that may open depending on which global scenario plays out first and, where they can, they are pushing the levers to make sure the scenario that gives them the greatest prize is out in front. 

We all know that this economic collapse is a fluid situation and all of the players are not on the same side.  China has a lot to gain by being the swarm of termites to eat out the hull of the U.S. without firing a shot literally or figuratively.  The rise of China, as a new market maker for gold and silver, would be an absolute game changer and that's my guess for the impetus to Turd's announcement.  Ultimately, though, this game is still in play and many of the pieces haven't even been brought on top of the board.

Great discussion by the way!

Byzantium's picture

@DPH

Exactly!

If the US has been given an ultimatum, then I cannot see them backing down. Instead there will be counter-threat; commensurate financial warfare? the bombing of Iran? The funding of insurrections in China?

There is so much that is not reported, but I am pretty sure that everything is linked, in a grand game of chess.

But a stalemate in which JPM is first knocked off the board, would be a great outcome.

Be Prepared's picture

He did build that...

silver foil hat's picture

and a war would open the "Force Majeure" clause on all contracts

, futures and options.

Don't think that alone isn't tempting for the bankers to sit aside to let the shooting start.

California Lawyer's picture

Humble Request, Turd

Turd, I love this place, and have a special endearment towards you because you helped guide my thinking and get me to this mental state of readiness.  For that, I will always be grateful.

Let me just say a few things, and let others think what they want.

Jesus Christ told of fantastic things, there were true believers and there were skeptics. Some skeptics wanted proof that He was the Son of God.  None that was good enough was ever offered, and what was offered, was disbelieved.  Still Jesus spread the word of God to his last days.

I have publicly called for skepticism of the silver moon shot, because I have my doubts, based on lack of empirical proof.   Call me a skeptic.  I would love to have silver blast off, then my stacking will have proved correct.  

But until I get better, concrete proof, of something about to happen, then I feel like all the cheerleading is just making me anxious.  Is it too much to ask for you to provide something concrete instead of "just trust me" statements?

I mean look at the argument.  If I tell people to stack silver, they say why.  I tell them "trust me," and they look at me like a crazy lawyer.  Well, I am that, but anyway . . .

To support my argument, I can tell them all that I know:

(1) Some unknown writer that posts on an internet blog, using the name Turd, says to trust him;

(2) When pressed for details supporting this belief advocated by SKOAT (stranger known only as Turd), SKOAT gets angry and says he could not care less if he is not believed;

(3) Yet, SKOAT keeps asking for people to believe him and stack, but at the same time, SKOAT asks others to send money, sight unseen, to him for an exclusive trading service that trades paper, which is the antithesis of stacking;

(4) SKOAT expresses surprise that silver has not launched higher yet;

(5) SKOAT says but be patient, it will happen soon.

Based on this, I know I am not crazy to harbor at least some doubts.  I WANT to believe, damnit, so I do.  But, I could sure do without the cheerleading or the steady stream of "trust me," okay?

Do I need to mention that there is a severe lack of trust nowadays, say, for example, based on recent sensational frauds like Bernie Madoff, MFing Global, PFG Best, ad nauseum?  

Can you cut some of us a little slack if we have doubts, please?

I won't say another peep about this, and I will stack away like you say.  And if silver launches higher as you say, I will publicly take my 50 lashes while everyone laughs and scolds me for having some doubts.

Thanks.

[Edit: I changed the title upon request, as I do not mean to be offensive to anyone or to imply any ill thoughts at all.  Just trying to draw a little insightful comparisons].

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

silver foil hat

I have to agree on that and I hate saying it...but war solves many things on many different levels for reasons that will never be given as the real reason for some conflicts.

Economic hardship and growth via destruction and rebuilding of what needs replacing leads to new growth in a perverse way.

Bollocks's picture

Jeez, the 24hr silver chart..

..looks like how my stomach feels after eating a really dodgy curry after a night of debauchery and mayhem. Agh.

Yup Turd ...just...waiting...for...it...all...to...end.

Marblesonac's picture

Cal Law

Liked your post, but wished you had maybe changed the title.

Be Prepared's picture

Cal Lawyer - Doubts are good.. and positive....

First, we would never pull out the scourge for having doubts because all of us have them in different ways.  We gather here to learn, but also to bolster our immunity to weather the torrential doubts which smack us in the face from all those around us.  We wouldn't be human otherwise....  For as awake as we all are, we still are all holding out some hope and some doubt that this will end badly... even though we know it will.  We are forced to live in two worlds.....  one world requires to live as if everything is normal and go to work, pay bills and move as if nothing is different..... the other world is one where we see what the world will be and know that preparations must be made.  This duality is a killer because the required strength of faith to maintain and execute against your beliefs is overwhelming.  The worse part of it..... is that the worst hasn't even begun to start and not knowing when is a daily kick in the balls or cha cha, as the case may be.

California Lawyer's picture

Changed the Title for You

Marblesonac, I edited the title.

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