Feeling Good, Louis!

To piggyback on Murphy's post:

Here's a good David Stockman interview from earlier in the year:

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/13278

Also, Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistant Secretary of Treasury under Reagan.  Former Editor of the Wall Street Journal.  Top notch credentials.  His blog is phenomenal (although a bit scary, seeing as this guy has been inside the machine).

Seminal Piece:

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2012/06/05/collapse-at-hand/

Here's a couple good interviews with PCR:

http://usawatchdog.com/one-on-one-with-paul-craig-roberts/

http://usawatchdog.com/one-on-one-with-paul-craig-roberts-2/

He does a lot of writing on political as well as economic issues--due to their inherently intertwined nature.  Good piece to knock around people's political thinking:

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2012/08/08/the-dispossessed-majority/

I posted this on Monday morning when the rally first began,  it had come in a very brief thought to me that man is coming to realize that silver is his most important precious on the planet.

Jim Willie Hat Trick Letter AUG 18 2012

## BANKER SCANDALS ERUPT

◄$$$ CONNECTION BETWEEN THE USFED AND THE U.S. SECURITY AGENCIES IS BEING ESTABLISHED. THE MILITARY NEED FOR SILVER IS COMING TO THE FORE, OR ELSE A BUST OF JPMORGAN OVER ITS SILVER SHORT POSITIONS WOULD REVEAL VAST MONEY LAUNDERING AT THE GIANT SYNDICATE BANK THAT EXPOSES A VERTICALLY INTEGRATED NARCOTICS INDUSTRY RUN BY THE SECURITY AGENCIES, A NEAR GLOBAL MONOPOLY. IN TIME THE SECURE ARENA OF C.O.M.E.X. WILL BE BARREN AS THE INTERNAL MECHANISMS ARE BREAKING DOWN. $$$

The complete loop is realized for the JPMorgan for its primary hub role in financial criminal activity related to several key arenas. Consider that JPMorgan runs the Iraqi Export Bank in Baghdad. It is the narcotics clearing house for sales of Aghan heroin produced by the US security organizations. It includes growing fields, production facilities, chemical factories, processing plants, distribution chains, NATO base abuse, and vast money laundering to the British and New York banks. Each soldier coffin contains 100 lbs of narcotics, never inspected, an insult to soldiers who made the ultimate sacrifice. The Jackass never holds detailed information, as generalities suffice, safer too. The monopoly protects American freedom and way of life. Without the money flows through New York City banks, the banks would collapse from lack of liquidity quickly. The big US banks are badly insolvent. JPMorgan is the active agent for US Federal Reserve operations, the expression done through the New York Fed and its many cable lines into the USTreasury Bond market, the FOREX currency market, the COMEX market, the stock market, and the sprawling derivative market.

JPMorgan is a principal operator of the Interest Rate Swap contracts in their Chief Investment Office, which control the USTreasury Bond yields. They fabricate the false flight to safety in USTBonds, at a time when foreign creditors are long gone, domestic savings has vanished, and chronic USGovt deficits are outsized. The connections for criminality all run through JPMorgan, thus the required protection by the US security agencies. The involvement of intelligence and security agencies confirms the urgency of the matter, as they stepped forward close from out of the shadows. Any breakdown and bust for a primary JPMorgan function would reveal vast criminality in several other arenas. Thus the footprint from the intelligence agencies. The hidden story is the gold dust trade out of the Congo, which has grown huge. Military deaths among US soldiers is becoming well known in many circles, like where the soldiers are treated for wounds suffered on African battlefields.

The expected revelations by JPMorgan whistle blowers was halted. The men in black probably threatened death to any JPMorgan employee acting to publicize criminal activity. They act to serve the Syndicate, to make America strong and to protect our freedom. Of course, the murder would be in the name of national security, all perfectly legal. The supposed miscreants would put the nation at risk by exposing criminality at the national leadership level, sure to destabilize the nation and disrupt our way of life. The Fascist Business Model is being shaken in a powerful manner, enough where leading figures will fall from the toxic trees and putrid branches.

What comes in the following weeks is likely a grand metal shortage within the COMEX, which has gradually been abandoned by legitimate players. Raising hope, then dashing it, and doing so repeatedly has a very detrimental effect on the metals market. The players will simply go away, steeped in distrust, seeking other honest venues. Members will remove their inventory and cause great pressures toward a default, all in time. What comes is likely a massive assault on other JPMorgan desks, as their vulnerability is enormous. Look for the internal works for Interest Rate Swap reckless management, or Credit Default Swap mutual vulnerability, or money laundering routes, or mortgage bond lawsuit rulings, or SLV silver inventory raids, to be exposed at the most awkward inconvenient moments. The wild card is exposure of USTBond counterfeit, the data records for which were in the infamous Building #7 of the World Trade Center. It contained damaging Enron records also, which would implicate JPMorgan for fraud. Multiple sources inform that two dozen dead bodies littered the lobby in a grand shootout on that terrible morning, between USGovt legal authorities and the Syndicate security cops, before the building was demolished without aircraft impact. The enemies of JPMorgan are legion. See the ETF Daily article (CLICK HERE).

◄$$$ NUMEROUS SUBPOENAS DIRECTED AGAINST JPMORGAN CHASE OVER L.I.B.O.R. ARE COMING FROM AGGRIEVED PARTIES ACROSS THE WORLD. THE JPMORGAN FORTRESS IS UNDER SIEGE. POWERFUL BANKS ARE SEEKING REDRESS OF SERIOUS LOSSES. THE LAWSUITS WILL MOUNT, BUT THE BIGGEST TARGET IS THE BIGGEST BANK, JPMORGAN CHASE, THE SYNDICATE CENTER AND CORE OF CRIMINAL OPERATIONS. $$$

Since a publicly owned firm, JPMorgan must supply information on court actions. In early August, the giant criminal syndicate bank revealed actions taken against it to the SEC. The bank made a similar disclosure in its previous quarterly filing in May. Regulators from the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Switzerland, and other nations had formally requested information. JPMorgan Chase has received subpoenas and requests for documents (even interviews) from the the USDept Justice, the CFTC, the SEC, the European Commission, the UK Financial Services Authority, the Canadian Competition Bureau, the Swiss Competition Commission, and other regulatory authorities and banking associations around the world. That is a whole lot of subpoenas. The JPMorgue dead asset lab must open new offices. At issue are deep losses from price rigging allegations linked to the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). The device sets borrowing costs for homeowners, companies, and borrowers throughout the world. It also sets swap rates for $350 trillion in credit derivatives. This nightmare for the big banks will not go away.

The scandal is being called the grandest financial sector criminal event in history. Not really true though. The LIBOR case merely has raised awareness with ugly revelations of what have been going on for a half century. Stealing Fort Knox gold by the Clinton-Rubin gang surely qualifies as a huge banker crime, along with lacing gold bars with tungsten and distributing 100,000 fake gold bars across the world, mainly to Hong Kong where resentment is acute. Sales of $trillions in fraud-ridden mortgage bonds across the world surely qualifies also. It is a real debate as to which $trillion crime is the worst or biggest within the banking sector in the last couple decades. Together, they paint a picture of profound Western bank depravity.

JPMorgan is cooperating with the investigations. They do not wish to add obstruction of justice to the laundry list of violations. The bank must respond to numerous requests for information about its involvement in setting EURIBOR and TIBOR, the European and Japanese versions of LIBOR, respectively. JPMorgan has been identified as one of 16 banks in the US, the UK, and Europe under investigation for manipulating LIBOR. The key to LIBOR is that the price is set by a group process, where collusion is therefore obvious. One should keep a very important factor in mind. Since collusion is charged, the big Western banks are not communicating with each other any longer, since legal counsel advises a cutoff. Therefore, the big banks are poised to attack each other, to use local immunity in turning evidence against the other banks. The LIBOR case has resulted in the big banks setting out to attack and kill each other in self-defense. Other big banks besides Barclays in  London will be forced to admit guilt and pay huge fines. Barclays has already agreed to pay $450 million in fines in the case. Other banks will likely soon follow, and regulators are building criminal cases against individual traders and maybe banks as well.

Previously, Bank of America and Citigroup have said that they have been served with subpoenas in the LIBOR case. These two banks have mentioned fewer regulatory agencies have knocked on their office doors than JPMorgan did. JPMorgan has disclosed being the subject of a large and growing number of lawsuits emerging from the LIBOR scandal. State and local governments, along with numerous official agencies, are suing banks for keeping LIBOR artificially low, rendering harm to the value of various swaps they purchased as protection against rising rates. See the Huffington Post article (CLICK HERE).

An update. JPMorgan Chase, Barclays, and UBS are among seven banks subpoenaed conducted by investigators in New York and Connecticut concerning alleged manipulation of LIBOR. New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman and Connecticut Attorney General George Jepsen are working together. One might wonder why Bank of America is not on the list targeted. As alert colleague Craig McC of California points out, Schneiderman rolled over earlier this year on the mortgage fraud settlement case, yielding to pressure from the Obama Admin. He might do the same and issue a hand slap for LIBOR price rigging. Rob Kirby adds that "The reason BofA was not included is that they merged with Merrill Lynch back in the relevant timeframe. Once their books were co-mingled, it becomes a tough task to untangle the constituents and then accurately place or lay the blame." See the Bloomberg article (CLICK HERE).

Please subscribe :)

... the psychopath greedy bankers and their owners want to kill millions of humans to avoid the masses being enlightened to their greed etc...

Make's me realize we are still only a few DNA mutations beyond aggressive selfish primal apes, and have a long way to go!

What a beautiful day. Spent it with the surveyor to firm up some measurements for a project going to construction next spring (assuming the world doesn't end). It's the end of August. Soon we'll have frost.

Some of you may remember when I showed up 2 months ago. Here's what I was seeing: comments from men "whining like little girls" and the "old guard" hiding in their backroom. Please remember what it was like and don't let it happen again. These aren't the actions of true believers and wise elders, something this world needs.

Yes, this long drawn out consolidation was difficult to endure. But looking back at the charts, it doesn't seem like it was any longer than usual. And it's still not over until the final breakout, which will not converge until roughly October. The witch isn't dead and will assuredly attack again. The next 24 hours and 10 or days are critical. I still have a big paper short to protect a rather large stack that I hope goes to zero. It's been said before: if you have a wad of paper you don't care if you lose, protect your stack with paper until the witch and the pig are dead.

When powerful psychopaths sense their demise, they go Nero on everything and everyone around them. They get hitleresque paranoid. America, I'm sorry to say, will see it since you are the home of the greatest concentration of them right now. Do not get between them and their herds of blind followers. They will be yoked against one another and finally toward the resilient and decent individuals. That's people commonly found here. There is little to anything you can do to awaken anyone anymore so waste little time and energy. The eye of the storm is closing up around us all. Sides are chosen and souls are being sold daily. As a matter of fact, if you try and do not succeed, they will remember you and assume you made preparations for said hardships and you will have put yourselves and families in danger.

I'll be fading back a little into the crowd into a semi-lurker but will not disappear. Summer is ending and with it, priorities change. But the ultimate goal is always the same and it needs no explanation and has no borders:

Spinning the immortal words of the traitor James Paul Warburg, "The globalist criminals are about to have their deserved place in history. The question is will they receive it by conquest or consent."

Below is a study of the gold COT data.  This data goes back to 2001.  (The first vertical dotted line on the left is Jan 1st, 2002.):

Gold Price (top graph): The long term upward trend starting around Nov 1st, 2008 failed last May.  The falling trend since September of last year looks to be failing right now, as I type this.  (Fingers crossed.)  (The silver chart is not shown, but it has very similar upward and downward trends.  Whereas gold broke down below it's rising trend, silver never broke down and the trend is still intact today.  Silver broke it's downward trend last week.  Fingers crossed there, too.)

Commercial Net Position (2nd from the top): A long standing downward trend in the commercial position started way back in Feb 2001 -- over 11 years ago!  Most everyone here knows about this.  But since around Jan 1st, 2010, the trend reversed and the commercial net position has started to be covered.  This change in trend is less well known and has only recently become obvious.

Open Interest (3rd from the top): Along with the growth in the commercial net position was growth in total open interest.  (OI = open interest = total number of shorts = total number of longs.)  Though I didn't draw the channel, you can see that there seems to be a trend change here as well -- the OI is breaking down below the channel.

Comments:

1) A long standing downward trend in the commercial position started way back in Feb 2001 -- over 11 years ago!  While gold has been going up year after year, the commercial net position was getting shorter and shorter.  But since around Jan 1st, 2010, the trend reversed and the commercial net position has started to be covered.

2) In May of 2001, the commercials were net long!  Hard to even imagine, isn't it?  But since May 2001, the commercials went net short and didn't look back for almost 9 years!

3) Between Jan 2010 and Sept 2011, you can see massive commercial short covering in the face of rising prices: an epic short squeeze.  Even with all the monkey business used to profit on the many created up and down swings in the market, this must have been very painful!  Since Sept 2011, of course, the price has been falling, and the commercials have been using the opportunity to continue to cover their massive short position.

4) While the total commercial short position in silver has been mostly covered by now (not shown here), only about 50% of the short position in gold has been covered --the commercials now sit at almost exactly a 50% net position relative to the Dec 2009 low.  (Silver sits today around 25% relative to its Dec 2004 low.)  They may have mostly escaped in silver, but in gold they are still trapped!  (I'm talking about the commercials as a whole here, not just JPM or someone else, who may or may not be trapped in a silver short position.)  By "trapped", I mean that we may get another opportunity at one of these monster commercial short squeezes.

5) We have recently broken down out of the rising OI channel.  There is some difference of opinion about whether a low OI is "bullish" or "bearish".  Larry Williams, whose COT book is where I learned most everything I know about OI analysis, claims that it is bullish.  To paraphrase him, low OI means that only the smart money is in the game (the commercials) while the dumb money is out (speculators).  I agree with him on this point, and the chart above seems to indicate that OI low or below the channel corresponds to subsequent bullish action.

6) My general conclusion is that the COT data is indicating a very bullish picture for gold.  (A similar, maybe even stronger case can be made for silver.)  What you are looking for is a relatively high commercial net position accompanied by a relatively low OI.  (Relatively could be translated as high or low within its channel.)  Look back over the last ten years and see if you can see (or not) how this has been true in the past.

7) The difficult thing about COT analysis is that it does not really provide timing information.  That is the weak aspect of COT anaylsis -- a bullish COT chart can always get more bullish as the price continues to drop.  So you really need to combine it with some fundamental or technical timing cues.  For me, that is the breaking of the downward trends in gold and silver.  I think we're there.

8) Will we get another short squeeze?  Will the commercial net position continue to rise in the face of rising prices?  My guess is not yet.  Probably the commercials will use their relatively high net position to sell into rising prices.  This is BY FAR the most usual case.  But it is a good idea to keep an eye on this.  A rising net position in the face of rising prices (short squeeze) is the holy grail of leveraged PM speculating -- I don't think many of us were aware what a rare and magical opportunity was sitting in our hands during 2010.  (I can speak for myself and say I didn't realize it at the time -- though, even in my ignorance, I did make a monster return in my commodity account.  Nor did I see it illustrated and explained as above.)  If it does come again, get leveraged and go as long as you can bear (keeping in mind your trading house may "go MF Global" on you).

9) I don't think it makes that much sense to try to follow COT on a weekly basis.  As far as I can tell, you really need to look at the big picture (as above) to make sense about it.  (At least I can't pull any sense out of the weekly changes in the COT.)  The one exception would be to watch for repeated rises in commercial net position during weeks when the price rise.

10) Expect volatility.  The banksters will use MOPE and paper to create strong swings up and down in an effort to scare speculators and screw them out of their money.  Careful with the leverage -- it will certainly be used against you!

11) Watch out for Jackson Hole next Friday!  Who knows what evil lurks there?

Happy Trading!  (Or happy stacking, as the case may be.)

(If Turd makes a new thread early, I'll probably repost this on the next thread.)

Just cast a quick look at Aus broker prices today.

For some peculiar reason, Perth Mint silver coins are trading today at a premium over Maple Leaf and Eagles.  This seems weird to me because usually they are all quoted at exactly the same price.  They have been identical for months.  Obviously Perth Mint coins are more common here...so I can't fathom the overnight jump in premium.

Can anyone shed some light on why this would occur...?

Cheers

Great analysis, good job buddy!

At 11 PM Pacific...

Gold up another $10.70 to $1665. 

Silver up another $0.60 to $30.53.

Not that I'm complaining, mind you...but man, something is up. $1670 is the next critical price point for gold, as is $31 for silver. We're blowing through resistance day by day. I'm long and strong and hoping this run will  be the big one that takes us to $2,100+ and $65+ to the next interim peak.

Great Post. Pure stacker here, but I think the type of information you are presenting here is definitely useful for stack acquisition decision making, where as most of the T/A is not, at least to me. Please do repost this tomorrow, everyone needs to see this. Thanks!

Bug

Blew past 30 during the Asian markets... Hold on to your hats boys... Turd, as always, good call on the momentum... Let's show the Big Dog what for this time, make them beg for the pace of early 2011... Here's to the Wicked Witch spitting out her coffee tomorrow morning when she sees this price action :-)

silver in pretty significant backwardation

I have SIU2 at 30.415/42, SIZ2 at 30.50/51 and Kitco at 31.49/59

Big Bro -- He Got Your Backside and remember, you didn't build it, McDonalds did. 
 
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2012/08/big-bro.html

Whistleblowers silenced.  Turd?....

Is it known how large (if any) JPM short positions are at present?

Would be grate if thay were forced to buy back massive position at a huge loss.