Feeling Good, Louis!
OK, now that we've got that FOMC nonsense out of the way, the rallies can continue. How much farther and how fast? Those are the questions.
In case you missed it, the FOMC minutes were QE-bullish. Essentially, The Fed stands ready for more "accommodation" if the economy fails to improve "substantially". You and I know that this is all bullshit, anyway, as The Fed is nearly out of ammo for additional Operation Twist measures and rates must be kept low permanently in order to sustain/protect The Great Ponzi. Again, review this if necessary: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4112/murmurs-10-year-note. However, nearly everyone should review that post because the CoT comments contained therein are also important for this current thread.
Anyway, from RanSquawk at ZH, here are three of the main headlines:
-
FOMC says many FOMC members supported extending the Fed late 2014 interest rate guidance, but agreed to defer decision to September meeting
-
FOMC says many FOMC members favored easing soon if no sustained growth pickup
-
FOMC says many FOMC participants saw new QE as bolstering US recovery
As you can see, these headlines speak for themselves. More QE is on the way, it's simply a matter of time. The only exception would be renewed, vigorous "growth". Does anyone rally see that happening anytime soon??
So where do we go from here? After bottoming in May and June, the metals are currently completing a 100-day consolidation and base. From here, we will rally back to the old all-time highs and beyond. Not that there won't be speedbumps and corrections along the way, there will be. However, prices are now headed higher.
Particularly silver. As mentioned in my CoT comments last week, it appears that the smaller "hyenas" are preparing to battle The Big Dog for silver supremacy. The hyenas correctly sense weakness and smell blood. The fat and lazy Big Dog continues on with business as usual, not knowing yet that it has been mortally wounded. As hyena confidence grows, they will up the pressure by forcing price higher and higher.
So here are your updated charts. At 1654, gold has clearly broken through the top end of its range and now looks to head toward its next battle, near 1675.
Silver is still battling to crawl above $30 but it is getting very close. With the FOMC behind us, I expect the hyenas to rage forward tomorrow and press their advantage. This should take silver to and through $30 and serve to draw in some momentum-chasing spec money to aid in the fight.
And here are two, additional charts for perspective:
I've mentioned how interesting last week's CoT was, well this week's should be a doozy, too. For the reporting week, gold rose every day, for a total of just over $40, and, prior to yesterday, total OI was down for the week. Again, prior to yesterday. I emphasize this because yesterday, while gold rose $20, total OI shot up by 12,000 contracts (over 3%!). This makes gold CoT data interesting because, clearly, some HOT money returned to gold yesterday in anticipation of today's breakout. But just who are these buyers? Cartel banks or specs? We'll get some answers on Friday.
The silver CoT will be even more interesting. After the big runup in the "hyena" long position last week, I've been looking forward all week to Friday's report. But now, consider this: For the reporting week, silver was UP $1.68 (6%!) but total OI fell by 1200 contracts. Clearly, to get a 6% move on declining OI, you've got quite a bit of short-covering going on. But, by whom? The SpecShortSheep? The Big Dog? Both? And how many contracts did the hyenas add at the same time? The CoT will shed some light on these questions and I can't wait to see it on Friday.
In random order, here's some stuff for you to read. First, this from Mark Grant via ZH: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gathering-storm
Next, this little ditty that some have posted already into the comments of the previous thread: http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=157430&sn=Detail&pid=102055
Here are your impending war and destruction updates for today: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/israels-iran-strike-routes & http://www.debka.com/article/22293/Iranian-leaders-in-Israel’s-sights-after-calling-for-its-destruction & http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/9490878/Irans-supreme-leader-orders-fresh-terror-attacks-on-West.html & http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-begins-construction-of-300-million-anti-aircraft-missile-base/
And here's a fun new piece from Mike Krieger where he discusses the greatness of Bitcoin: http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2012/08/22/bitcoin-a-way-to-fight-back-against-the-financial-terrorists/
Lastly, I need your help with something. I spoke with Andrew Maguire earlier today. He and his business partner Paul seem to really like the idea of an "OptionsTrades" service. Her are some random thoughts on the matter:
- I'm quite uneasy at recommending options trading to anyone given the inherent risks involved and my oft-stated concerns for the viability of the current "system". After the MFG and PFG debacles, everyone should be wary of holding cash, or anything else for that matter, within the confines of a customer account. That said, I could be wrong. That Ann Barnhart gal could be wrong, too. Maybe MFG and PFG are simply one-offs and everything is fine. I recognize, too, that there are still literally thousands of people worldwide who are still actively trading. Therefore, I'm content to go forward but under the banner of "proceed at your own considerable risk".
- I've been trading options for over 25 years now. In my "career", I've always been forced to enter The Den of Thieves armed with nothing but my own experience, wisdom and charts. To think that I could enter again but, this time, have the experience of Andrew Maguire to guide me?...well that is pretty compelling.
- After 25 years, I do at least have some idea of what I'm doing. All trades established by Andy and I will only be placed if we are in agreement that the trade makes sense. This clearly doesn't guarantee success but I'd like to think it increases our chances a bit.
- It's not going to be cheap but it shouldn't be. First of all, we don't want totally inexperienced traders taking a stab at it simply because the subscription is just $20/month. Additionally, at $250/month, the service would be a bargain. Subscribers would need to maintain an account balance of $15,000-25,000 so we're only talking about a 1-2% monthly vig.
- For those that don't trade futures options but do trade equity options, we'll try to offer an alternative ETF option play whenever possible. For example, a Dec12 gold call trade might be matched with a DecGLD call.
So here's what I need you to do. If you think this sounds interesting and you think you'd be willing to give it a go, please hat tip the first comment below. Since currently only TFMR members can hat tip, any lurker who would like to indicate interest can send me a quick email at tfmetalsreport at gmail dot com. If enough folks show an interest, we'll likely go ahead and set up the system. Thanks in advance for your help.
As I head out, I see we're still looking good at $1655 and $29.90. Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings!
TF
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Comments
Chinese gold ETFs and gold's rise
http://www.arabianmoney.net/gold-silver/2012/08/17/chinese-gold-etfs-the...
One ball Johnny...
... has been wrong so many times that he may one day be right but its likely to be only for one day.
I'm ready to jump - need advice on large silver purchase
Hi good folks of Turdsville!
I'm looking for some advice on making a large silver purchase. I've been a stacker since discovering Turd's wisdom when the old site launched... I'm not a big-time metal owner, but I always bought a roll of eagles or maple leafs whenever I could. Sadly, I had to sell a lot of my stack to cover living costs (we had a baby 10 months ago) and a new company startup (decided to go self-employed and be around all day for my wife and son - which was the best decision I think I ever made). Things are looking up again and I want to purchase maybe 1000-1500 ounces of silver to add to my very depleted stack. I think my preference is Maple Leaf 1oz coins.
What is the best thing for me to do? Doing my own research, it looks to me like something like Tulving might be a good place to go, but if anyone has any advice, or guidance, it would be greatly appreciated.
So if anyone wants to throw something at me here... I'd accept it gratefully!
Thanks,
H
Back when 1k bought you 4 krugs
tyberious posted this last night if you missed it
on a tangent from that article...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48758752
Chinese acquisitions of US assets and businesses are running at record levels this year, bucking the trend of a generally tough mergers and acquisitions market and a sign that it is easier than many think for Chinese companies to attain approval for deals in America....MORE
Re: Well this sucks
Syria, Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Hamas all need to be naturalized prior to the attack on Iran. I could care less if Iran has nukes. It wouldn't be an issue if we didn't have such as a shitty foreign policy.
@paisan
I missed the LCS story, but I remember the Toxie series.
What I find so frustrating about Marketplace is they make a show of looking more deeply than the typical financial news reporting, but still manage to stay on a very superficial surface level. It is sophistry at its finest, albeit entertaining.
H - original
Hey H
With the benefits of my screw ups over the years, here is my 2 cents .....
1. Get maybe a monster box of 1 oz coins (Maples are my favourite, followed by Perth Mint), which you keep for all those possible future SHTF scenarios where you may need to barter with smaller easily recognisable physical.
2. Get maybe a 10 x 100 oz bars to advance your stack by doing future GSR swops. This size allows you to minimise premiums/oz.
suggestions for reading material
(regular lurker, irregular poster)
I was hoping some here could suggest some materials like articles, info graphics, videos, that I could send to friends to bring them up to speed. Here's the catch - ideally they would be as mainstream as possible so as not to be dismissed based on production value, source, or whatever (baby steps). I will be honest, some of what I read on here seems out there to me, and I am reading pretty regularly. Zerohedge as well, regular great info, but some indigestible to the mainstream.
A couple of examples I have found are:
http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/overdose-next-financial-crisis/
http://world.time.com/2012/08/10/how-long-can-spain-take-the-financial-h...
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/08/05/standard-poors-us-credi...
Thanks for any suggestions!
Acquiring bitcoins
There's several ways into BTC from fiat. None of them are terribly convenient. I'll start with cheap and go to expensive.
1. (cheap and complicated) Open a MtGox account. Fund it with a cash deposit at Wells Fargo using Aurumxchange to create a MtGox cash voucher code, which you then redeem with MtGox. Place a limit order or a market order to buy. Withdraw your BTC to your wallet.
2. (cheap and super complicated) Open a Silk Road seller's account (need some BTC for this already). List cash for sale.
3. (not-so-cheap, simpler, risky) Use Bitinstant funded via Wal-Mart money order to coin-a-pult BTC to your email. Bitinstant is not exactly reliable and their customer help line is manned by 12 year olds. There are a lot of exchangers that are like Bitinstant - be careful as most of them are not run by the most mature or experienced people around.
4. (painfully expensive, simple) Use Virwox. Buy SLL with your credit card. Buy BTC with your newly acquired SLL. Withdraw BTC to your personal address. The exchange rates on VirWox are very bad, you will get raped if you go this route. Limit of $52 per day. Limit of 3 BTC withdrawls per day.
I've used Wells Fargo -> Aurumxchange -> MtGox method many times now, they are reliable, have never had any problems with them at all. That's what I recommend to people I like. To people I don't like, I recommend Bitinstant or VirWox. The Silk Road option has it's own set of issues, and if you have an SR seller's account well, I don't want to be a material witness for anything.
1660+ and 30+
after market. better than tv.
Tulving will get you the best
Tulving will get you the best premiums, but it is NEVER good to buy on a spike. If your stack is so depleted that you feel vulnerable, and you don't mind losing 20% if this move isn't permanent, then by all means, go ahead and buy. I, however, would cost average into my position. You won't get the great premiums you would get from Tulving, but you won't feel so bad if the price falls, and you won't miss out on the current low prices if it continues to advance.
The time to buy is always, but if you have a big stack of fiat, the time to buy is when it isn't really moving in any direction, ie sometime in the last few weeks. Waiting for a breakout is a bad idea, as it violates the "buy low, sell high" mandate.
Oct12 crude high for the night is
98.05
Now let's see if we can extend toward 99 and maybe even 100 before consolidating again.
H original
With regard to the GSR swop here is an example...
1. GSR MOVES TO SAY 25
Swop the 1000 ozs silver for 40 ozs gold.
2. Anywhere above 50, swop back to silver.
Ie. 2000 ozs silver.
I believe you will get both swop opportunities within the next 12 months.
You can also swop in 2 tranches of 500 ozs to ensure you get an average of at least doubling your physical.
Swop premiums can get as low as 1.3% each way on physical in the US (reported by Turd posters).
To cover premium loss, consider waiting for a GSR of 105%, or in the above example, GSR 55 average.
Many different possibilities......
Hotel GDX
Getting ready for DUST. This one goes out to all the owners of under water mining shares AKA Bagholders. You are supposed to use stop losses instead of a magical unicorn story. Talk soon.
The Algos keep you from selling along with TF magical story.
Gut feeling about the markets tonight
Something is up.....big time.
Superduper
Here's some David Stockman interviews. He was Reagan's former budget director. He may have done a Frontline interview with Bill Moyers as well.. I can't remember which ones are better than another.
http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/david-stockman-austerity-not-discretionary
http://play.goldmail.com/brvqd25g27y3
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-emperor-is-naked-david-stockman-2012-5
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/03/david-stockman-on-crony-capitalism/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
thanks TM and Donno
Thanks for your thoughts! Much appreciated
My thinking was that I'm more than happy buying back in at $30.
I started around $22 and bought all the way up to the high last year and back down again - made my big sale at $37 and right now, what I have left is averaged just north of $32, so wouldn't that mean that even buying on the uptick, I'm still averaging lower?
I have the cash sitting in my bank account with nowhere for it to go, and no urgent need for it either. So if I did want to buy now, it Tulving a good place?
Another question I have - am I obliged to report a purchase that large? (let's say I went ahead and dropped $60K on silver)
Thanks again!
H
H original
And finally, if you look at the purchase in terms of GSR, ie. buy silver when the GSR is high or buy gold when the GSR is low.
SINCE the GSRis very high now (56) but showing signs of heading down (hopefully a multi decade low?), then consider buying on the ratio, and not purely on price of silver.
You may not get the absolute low, but if you believe the GSR is heading down, then don't muck around as we have been in a silver holding pattern for quite a while.
Keep a close eye on Ivar's analysis..........
Dominos: Headed Northeast
I believe Iran (after Syria) is just a stepping stone towards the tip of the spear that's being pointed towards China/Russia like a wedge just south of them that has been the intent all along.
Egypt eventually will be brought back into the fold because there is no way they are letting the Sinai or the Suez canal be put in jeopardy. No way.
That would complete the meandering string that points southeast from Libya towards the Northeast and that China/Russia divide. In my opinion, US/NATO feel invincible at this point and they'll push that spear as far as they think they get away with it. I also believe at some point that US/NATO will repartition portions of certain countries in an effort to rebalance the ethnicity basket in the ME.
I'm not advocating any of this, but it's what I think is going happen. We've been at war over there for over 20 years solid (1st Iraq invasion) and we don't look like we're about to stop and ultimately I think most of this is born from the Iran situation (1979, early 1980's/revenge) and the collapse of the USSR later that decade where the West saw an opening and my guess is that the opening is where that spear tip is pointed towards. I hate writing this stuff, but that's what I think they're up to.
They have a plan and they're working it.
Snippet from this past weekend...
"...I also realize MENA is more then about oil. (I think it also has to do with driving a wedge ultimately from the Mediterranean through Syria (in progress) and Iraq (already did so) through Iran (will do so) while having Afghanistan (currently), Pakistan (tricky one) in the fold with an eye on Turkmenistan probably at some point. Being at Russia's and China's front door looks like the tip of a wedge between both of them if they make it that far)."
Random/Roaming Thought
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/202102#comment-202102
H
I am hard pressed in keeping up with the Aussie bullshit, so not really able to advise, although many posters here have previously discussed the reporting and future capital gains issues.
@H
Don't mean to step on anyone's toes, but if it were me I would be at the bank tomorrow getting cash out of the bank! I would go to all the local coin shops with cash and work some deals with them, not spending all the money in one place, and always for cash. I would buy a nice bag of 90% and some ASE's and Maples.
For me, it is about having my savings in real money. I consider it a miracle of God that with all that is going on, we can still exchange fake, debt based, paper bullshit for real money. I would skip dollar cost averaging because I would feel safer with real money whether it cost me 30 or 26.
I was at a LCS today, I could have easily dropped 60K right there. Plenty of inventory, and good inventory. Of course I didn't drop 60K, I just got $20 face of Franklin Halves and a couple of Pandas. When I handed over the cash, I was owed 9 FRN's which I in turn grabbed 4 merc dimes instead of the paper.
Anyway, I am sure we have reached the point where a large order with a paper trail is not your friend.
Holy S**t - real reporting in 1971
n August 1971, President Nixon unilaterally ended the Bretton Woods international monetary system of fixed exchange rates. In December 1971, the Smithsonian agreement was reached, establishing new fixed exchange rates with a devalued US dollar. Thirteen months later, the Smithsonian agreement began to collapse. Once Nixon ended Bretton Woods, the official role of gold in international monetary affairs was de facto ended. However, a kind of pretend relationship between the dollar and gold persisted on paper. Private gold holdings in the US has been banned in 1934 when President Roosevelt raised the official price of gold to $35/oz. With the Smithsonian collapse, whatever rationale there had been for banning private gold holding ended and the law was changed. The first clips shows the early collapse of the Smithsonian system and Congressional desire for flexible exchange rates. The second shows the failure of an attempt to stabilize the dollar in that period. And the third shows resumption of private gold ownership.
@Superduper
If you want your friends/family to have a basic understanding about why the system is falling apart, I suggest the Crash Course videos by Chris Martenson that are available on You Tube. Chris is very plain spoken, rational, and makes his points very understandable without jargon or hyperbole. After listening to him speak one gets the impression that the man knows what he is talking about and is sincere. This is a good place to start leading people in the right direction. Good luck!
@superduper
at this point in time, if you are reaching for videos to try and wake someone up who still doesn't sense something is really wrong, you might want try smacking them with a brick. Heavy sleepers can be a bitch to awaken.
@Dynamo
I am with you. Something big is about to go down. I just hope it is JPM.
Whoever goes down.........
will be the first patsy.....
@ag1969
That be a good plan too..
Just get some!
QE3 or 4 or 5 or whatever??
I don't post much at all but this has been on my mind this evening. I spend all day listening to a local sports talk station while I work. WEEI, New England. In general they act as if they couldn't give two hoots about what goes on in the financial sector but within the last 6 months or so have been doing an end of day report on the market activity. A 20 second bit at most and it's always capped off with the closing price of gold, although it seems odd they even mention gold. Today the segment was prefaced by the mention of big banks being concerned about the inevitability of QE3. (Sorry I do not have it verbatim)
Nothing odd about QE3 talk in Turdville of course. But, to be thrown out there in the world of careless , clueless , idiot sports fans like myself seemingly for the first time does seem very peculiar.....