Feeling Good, Louis!

OK, now that we've got that FOMC nonsense out of the way, the rallies can continue. How much farther and how fast? Those are the questions.

In case you missed it, the FOMC minutes were QE-bullish. Essentially, The Fed stands ready for more "accommodation" if the economy fails to improve "substantially". You and I know that this is all bullshit, anyway, as The Fed is nearly out of ammo for additional Operation Twist measures and rates must be kept low permanently in order to sustain/protect The Great Ponzi. Again, review this if necessary: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4112/murmurs-10-year-note. However, nearly everyone should review that post because the CoT comments contained therein are also important for this current thread.

Anyway, from RanSquawk at ZH, here are three of the main headlines:

  • FOMC says many FOMC members supported extending the Fed late 2014 interest rate guidance, but agreed to defer decision to September meeting

  • FOMC says many FOMC members favored easing soon if no sustained growth pickup

  • FOMC says many FOMC participants saw new QE as bolstering US recovery

As you can see, these headlines speak for themselves. More QE is on the way, it's simply a matter of time. The only exception would be renewed, vigorous "growth". Does anyone rally see that happening anytime soon??

So where do we go from here? After bottoming in May and June, the metals are currently completing a 100-day consolidation and base. From here, we will rally back to the old all-time highs and beyond. Not that there won't be speedbumps and corrections along the way, there will be. However, prices are now headed higher.

Particularly silver. As mentioned in my CoT comments last week, it appears that the smaller "hyenas" are preparing to battle The Big Dog for silver supremacy. The hyenas correctly sense weakness and smell blood. The fat and lazy Big Dog continues on with business as usual, not knowing yet that it has been mortally wounded. As hyena confidence grows, they will up the pressure by forcing price higher and higher.

So here are your updated charts. At 1654, gold has clearly broken through the top end of its range and now looks to head toward its next battle, near 1675.

Silver is still battling to crawl above $30 but it is getting very close. With the FOMC behind us, I expect the hyenas to rage forward tomorrow and press their advantage. This should take silver to and through $30 and serve to draw in some momentum-chasing spec money to aid in the fight.

And here are two, additional charts for perspective:

I've mentioned how interesting last week's CoT was, well this week's should be a doozy, too. For the reporting week, gold rose every day, for a total of just over $40, and, prior to yesterday, total OI was down for the week. Again, prior to yesterday. I emphasize this because yesterday, while gold rose $20, total OI shot up by 12,000 contracts (over 3%!). This makes gold CoT data interesting because, clearly, some HOT money returned to gold yesterday in anticipation of today's breakout. But just who are these buyers? Cartel banks or specs? We'll get some answers on Friday.

The silver CoT will be even more interesting. After the big runup in the "hyena" long position last week, I've been looking forward all week to Friday's report. But now, consider this: For the reporting week, silver was UP $1.68 (6%!) but total OI fell by 1200 contracts. Clearly, to get a 6% move on declining OI, you've got quite a bit of short-covering going on. But, by whom? The SpecShortSheep? The Big Dog? Both? And how many contracts did the hyenas add at the same time? The CoT will shed some light on these questions and I can't wait to see it on Friday.

In random order, here's some stuff for you to read. First, this from Mark Grant via ZH: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gathering-storm

Next, this little ditty that some have posted already into the comments of the previous thread: http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=157430&sn=Detail&pid=102055

Here are your impending war and destruction updates for today: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/israels-iran-strike-routes & http://www.debka.com/article/22293/Iranian-leaders-in-Israel’s-sights-after-calling-for-its-destruction & http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/9490878/Irans-supreme-leader-orders-fresh-terror-attacks-on-West.html & http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-begins-construction-of-300-million-anti-aircraft-missile-base/

And here's a fun new piece from Mike Krieger where he discusses the greatness of Bitcoin: http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2012/08/22/bitcoin-a-way-to-fight-back-against-the-financial-terrorists/

Lastly, I need your help with something. I spoke with Andrew Maguire earlier today. He and his business partner Paul seem to really like the idea of an "OptionsTrades" service. Her are some random thoughts on the matter:

  1. I'm quite uneasy at recommending options trading to anyone given the inherent risks involved and my oft-stated concerns for the viability of the current "system". After the MFG and PFG debacles, everyone should be wary of holding cash, or anything else for that matter, within the confines of a customer account. That said, I could be wrong. That Ann Barnhart gal could be wrong, too. Maybe MFG and PFG are simply one-offs and everything is fine. I recognize, too, that there are still literally thousands of people worldwide who are still actively trading. Therefore, I'm content to go forward but under the banner of "proceed at your own considerable risk".
  2. I've been trading options for over 25 years now. In my "career", I've always been forced to enter The Den of Thieves armed with nothing but my own experience, wisdom and charts. To think that I could enter again but, this time, have the experience of Andrew Maguire to guide me?...well that is pretty compelling.
  3. After 25 years, I do at least have some idea of what I'm doing. All trades established by Andy and I will only be placed if we are in agreement that the trade makes sense. This clearly doesn't guarantee success but I'd like to think it increases our chances a bit.
  4. It's not going to be cheap but it shouldn't be. First of all, we don't want totally inexperienced traders taking a stab at it simply because the subscription is just $20/month. Additionally, at $250/month, the service would be a bargain. Subscribers would need to maintain an account balance of $15,000-25,000 so we're only talking about a 1-2% monthly vig.
  5. For those that don't trade futures options but do trade equity options, we'll try to offer an alternative ETF option play whenever possible. For example, a Dec12 gold call trade might be matched with a DecGLD call.

So here's what I need you to do. If you think this sounds interesting and you think you'd be willing to give it a go, please hat tip the first comment below. Since currently only TFMR members can hat tip, any lurker who would like to indicate interest can send me a quick email at tfmetalsreport at gmail dot com. If enough folks show an interest, we'll likely go ahead and set up the system. Thanks in advance for your help.

As I head out, I see we're still looking good at $1655 and $29.90. Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings!

TF

Comments

agNau's picture

Lots of congestion in near overhead @ag....

Weekly 50ma & Daily 200ma fall in range between $30.50 & $31.00.
What happens in this resistance range, and the battle royal area close by, will IMO be telling on the real strength of this move. I am thinking the battle will NOT be large, or lengthy.

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

One Germany, one vote....no veto power

Time for Germany’s Bundesbank to Put Up or Shut Up

The future of the euro and maybe of the European Union itself will turn in the next few weeks on a disagreement between Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, and Jens Weidmann, head of the Bundesbank. Draghi wants the ECB to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the single currency. Weidmann doesn’t.

A question arises: How did the Bundesbank, representing just one nation among the 17 members of the euro area, ever acquire the veto over ECB policy it is apparently allowed to wield?

There are two main answers. First, when the Bundesbank ruled the roost as Germany’s central bank, its reputation was peerless. In some ways the ECB was modeled on it, and the habit of deference persists. But while the Bundesbank still calls itself a central bank, its role now is to serve as a regional office of the ECB.

Second, Germany is the biggest economy in the euro area. But so what? Votes on the ECB’s governing council are distributed not by shares of euro-area gross domestic product or ECB capital. The ECB was purposely designed so that every country in the system sends a member to the council; each of those members has one vote.

Germany doesn’t actually have a veto; it just talks as though it does, and the rest of the council usually goes along. Don’t be fooled; Germany understands the limit of its power. Some of its politicians have started complaining about it, saying it’s wrong that Malta has as much voting power as Germany and the rules should be changed...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-22/time-for-germany-s-bundesbank-to-put-up-or-shut-up.html

DavidSilverSwe's picture

saying

that a 2% vig / month isn't a lot sounds like a bankman selling a crap product tbh. it's a lot. maybe the absolute sum of money isn't a lot, but the % is sure high, used in the example(don't go on another "troll" rant Turd, deep breaths, people have opinions it's the internet calm down etc :)    )

Good luck to those that try it though, im feeling more and more uneasy about how much stuff is being sold here, and if I should

re-think the motives. but I might be overly critical/thinking here. Always good to stay on your toes though.

Also uneasy about the harsh tone any people with different opinions get on this forum. almost cult-like. Still lots of smart ppl on here though. So I'll keep on checking in. :) 

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

David

Thanks for your opinion...have a nice evening

Dyna mo hum's picture

Gov. Perry

Has probably already told the judge to chill out.

S Roche's picture

Fibonacci Fans...

The Feb 29 beat-down was on the 78.6% line...it was signaled by the price being capped for 2 days (at 1790/92).

The 78.6% line is now $1658/60 and I notice the price was run up to the trend line on light volume in order to touch the underside ($1656...how thick is the line?) on the daily changeover on the 24hr charts (GMT/UT).

fwiw, I have lightened up my trading long position and will be very happy to buy back slightly higher if gold pushes through.

murphy's picture

@ Tube- good to see you back

Puck T. Smith's picture

@DavidSilverSwe

Seriously, I'm trying not to sound like a cult member, but I have no idea what you just said.  Maybe it's some kind of secret trader talk, in which case, fine, I'm not a trader so it really doesn't matter, but it is somehow pertinent to stackers, please clarify yourself a little.  I'm always willing to learn.

Island Guy's picture

PSLV v. SLV

I would be interested in Turd's proposal of trading options, and in particular ETF options such as SLV.  However, before doing this kind of trading I have some questions regarding PSLV and SLV which I am hoping some of my fellow Turdites can answer. 

I've researched these funds on the internet.  As far as I can tell, both are legitimate ETF funds, yet SLV is constantly disparaged because it is "paper settling on the comex" to quote Harvey Organ, among others.

Frankly, this seems perfectly logical and harmless.  Every time SLV receives an investment it has to go out and purchase silver, according to the terms of its prospectus.  It is impractical to just buy physical in that kind of volume, so they purchase a contract for future delivery.  Then, at that future date, they stand for delivery.  Very simple, and very logical.  The only risk would seem to be that if everything falls apart in the couple of months prior to delivery of the physical, then the loss would be borne by either that particular investor, or spread among all of the investors.  It is unclear who would bear this loss.  So there is some risk.  Frankly, the amount of risk seems fairly small.  

In contrast, PSLV does not have this risk.  Sprott has gone out and purchased his silver in advance.     However, there is a considerable cost to avoiding this risk.  Sprott charges a very large premium to purchase shares of PSLV. 

So, the choice would seem to come down to accepting some risk, or paying a large premium to avoid that risk.

If it was as simple as that, it would be an easy decision for most people.  They would determine how risk averse they were, and then buy accordingly.  However, it is not as simple as that. 

There are rumors that SLV is not just holding paper contracts for the delivery of their latest purchases.  Instead, they are supposedly holding paper contracts for most of their silver, and are not really in possession of much physical at all.    If this is true, then the level of risk goes way up, and the premium for PSLV shares seems more reasonable.

I've tried to find some evidence of these rumors, however, and there does not seem to be anything concrete behind them.  Am I missing something?  Is there evidence, or are we Turdites so used to conspiracies that we see them everywhere?

Magpie's picture

@dyna mo hum

I think the judge has it ass-backwards.  It's the libs who will burn the house down if Zero isn't re-elected. 

S Roche's picture

@Island Guy

http://kiddynamitesworld.com/on-misinterpreting-pslvs-premium/ Kid and Screwtape http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com.au/ cut through the PSLV confusion. Don't expect it to make any difference when http://www.silvercirclemovie.com/ hits the screens.

There are even people on this site who still think coin (and small manufactured bar) shortages are a sign of silver shortages, despite good information being freely available: http://goldchat.blogspot.com.au/2012/07/expect-precious-metals-shortages-during.html

The metals are a very broad church...or large bowl, if you prefer, in Turdistan.

FleetFeet's picture

@ exiled bear

Give us a primer on buying Bitcoins, taking delivery or storing them, and later using them or selling them.  For example, if I download them to my computer (if that's possible), can I use them in commerce?  Or do they have to be stored in an internet "wallet?"  What sources do you use or recommend?  

I missed a chance to get in under $5 because I just didn't understand the system.  

thnx

paisan's picture

I think the best advice I've

I think the best advice I've seen for a newb such as myself is to "stay the hell out of the markets!"

However, my brother is taking some class on options trading, and insists on trying to make some money at it. I hope like hell I have the opportunity to convince him to listen to Turd and Andy and not just get himself wiped out. At least he isn't risking any of the physical he's stacked up until now. 

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

Are diamonds a sound investment?

How Diamonds Form

Kimberlite and Lamproites are carrot shaped deep-origin volcanic eruptions

  • 1 in 200 volcanic pipes contain gem-quality diamonds
  • Magma itself does not have diamonds, but acts as an elevator to bring up diamonds coming from depth
  • Diamonds coming to earth’s surface are old, ranging from 1-3.3 billion years old. 22%-73% age of Earth.
  • Formed at depths between 140 – 190km where exact conditions exist for diamond creation (temperature + pressure)
  • Meteorites
    • Microdiamonds can be found at meteorite impact craters. Some impact events create shock zones of high pressure and temperature suitable for diamond creation.

Diamond Properties

  • Hardest natural substance on earth
  • Optical properties (brilliant, lustre, color)
  • Unique. Every diamond is different because they are crystals that form with different sizes, colours, and defects.

Diamond Type and Colour

Diamonds get color from their impurities or structural anomalies.

Type 1 diamonds:

  • 98% of gem diamonds have Nitrogen as a key impurity, which can make them white, light yellow, or light brown.
  • 0.1% have nitrogen impurities, but more diffuse, making an intense yellow or brown color.

Type 2 diamonds:

  • 1.8% are entirely devoid of impurities, but have structural anomalies that can give yellow, brown, orange, pink, red, or purple colour.
  • 0.1% have boron impurities, that make them blue or grey.
  • Green diamonds also can occur if a diamond is exposed to radiation

Diamond mining

  • Because each diamond is unique, unlike other commodities, there is another measurement that must be considered to prove an economic deposit: diamond value. Each diamond has a unique value based on size and characteristics. Companies must take a bulk sample of at least 2000 carats to give an “average” for diamond value.
  • Generally all diamonds from a similar volcanic pipe have similar characteristics

Market for diamonds

  • 130,000,000 carats (26,000kg) of diamonds mined annually, valued at $13B (US) – global diamond retail sales: $72B
  • 30% are gem quality, 70% industrial use. Industrial diamonds are valued for hardness and thermal conductivity.
  • Gem diamonds are valued for clarity, color, cut, and carat (4 C’s). Given all other factors remaining the same, more carats mean an exponential increase in value. Clarity is how pure each diamond is and the number, size, color, location, orientation and visibility of defects. Colourless diamonds (white) are graded on a scale from D to Z, with Z being light yellow. Rare and desirable colors are red, green, purple, blue, orange, and pink. Cut refers to quality of workmanship and angles to reflect maximum amount of light. Quality of cut is the most important of 4 C’s.

Demand: Economic growth and demographics

  • China/India to drive diamond demand through newly affluent population. In the world diamond retail market, Asia in 2005 made up 23% of purchases. In 2020, they will make up 57%!
  • By 2020, China’s GDP on a PPP (purchasing power parity) basis is forecast to grow 190% to 28 trillion! This would be the highest in the world.
  • Supply is to decline as mines go deeper and underground, with no significant new mines starting production.
  • 92% of world’s diamonds are cut and polished in India, mostly in the city of Surat
  • 85% of world’s rough diamonds, 50% of cut diamonds, and 40% of industrial diamonds are traded in Antwerp, Belgium, the diamond centre of the world.
  • 2-3% of diamonds traded today are conflict diamonds (from unstable West or central African countries where mines are controlled by rebels)
  • Highest ever auction price paid for diamond: $46m for Graff Pink, a rare 24.78 carat pink diamond by Laurence Graff (UK)
  • Cullinan the largest rough gem-quality diamond ever found at 3,106.75 carats (621.35g). Found in South Africa and divided into 9 polished stones. The largest stone, Cullinan I has an estimated value of $400m.

A Clear Look at Diamonds

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/portfolio/diamonds-clear-look-infographic

Dyna mo hum's picture

Magpie

I kinda think the judge might be really preparing for the eventuality you just described without saying such. Some of us men are shifty like that. 

The Watchman's picture

@David

No one is being forced into the deal.If it produces a positive return of more than 2% people will be happy-if not I don't think they would continue.

Low cost Hedge Funds provide win-win situation for Investors and Managers

Hedge funds typically charge two levels of fees. There is a management fee which typically ranges from 1.5% to 2.0% although there are funds that charge less, from 0.5% to 1.0%, and funds that charge as much as 5.0%. The fees are charged on the size of the capital invested, that is on the equity contribution of the investor or the gross asset value (GAV) of the shares owned by the investor.

There is also almost always a performance fee being a percentage of profits. The structuring of the management fee can vary, as can the proportion. Typically, hedge funds charge between 10% - 25% of gross returns in performance fees.

opticsguy's picture

Diamonds

lack two of Aristotle's criteria for money.

Consistency:  Diamonds are never the same, due to the color and clarity gradings.

Divisibility:  Cutting an AGE in half gives you two 1/2 oz pieces of Au.  Cutting a 2 karat diamond in half makes it worth about 1/8th as much.

Compactness:  over the top here.  I'm not using my binocular microscope and milligram scale to make change.

treefrog's picture

asian hours

metals catching a bid.  sidney? hong kong?  just guessing, i'd suspect hong kong.

netdania just printed thirty dollar silver!  just past 9:30

Bollocks's picture

"If the graphic is too big here just view it at the link maybe"

Why would it be too big?

LOL.

The Watchman's picture

SILVER About to TAKE OUT $30

  www.kitco.com

The World Spot Price - Asia/Europe/NY markets

light
  SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
( closes in 19 hrs. 46 mins.)
  Metals Date Time (EST) Bid Ask Change from NY Close
Gold Charts GOLD 08/22/2012 21:29 1658.60 1659.60

+4.50

+0.27%

Silver Charts SILVER 08/22/2012 21:29 29.99 30.09

+0.16

+0.54%

Platinum Charts

PLATINUM

08/22/2012 21:29 1545.00 1555.00

+13.00

+0.85%

Palladium Charts PALLADIUM 08/22/2012 21:29 634.00 639.00

+5.00

+0.79%

 

 

XAU and Gold Ratios

 

Aug 22, 2012 21:29 NY Time

 

XAU

168.05

+3.69  

Gold / XAU Ratio

9.87

 

Gold / Silver Ratio

55.31

-

 

Gold / Platinum Ratio

1.07

 

 
Torpedo Fish's picture

30.00

30.00 !!!

johnnydow's picture

It's a pump/dump trap today

Started getting short again.  Buying some Oct/Nov/Dec 130 on the cheap for some lottos. Moving back into GLL for real quick 1 week or so.  Moving out to Jan for some cash payoff puts

Turd stop being passive aggressive and just be a trader instead of a gold pumper.

Looking at the 75 chart.  They are almost perfect looking at the July-Sept time frame.  Amazing how the current news makes the same chart pattern.

Good luck Gamblers.

MrGuboci's picture

30$

Silver just touched the 30$ !

thesandbox's picture

$30

!!!!

The Watchman's picture

AND IT BREAKS $30

 

  www.kitco.com

The World Spot Price - Asia/Europe/NY markets

light
  SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
( closes in 19 hrs. 43 mins.)
  Metals Date Time (EST) Bid Ask Change from NY Close
Gold Charts GOLD 08/22/2012 21:32 1658.20 1659.50

+4.10

+0.25%

Silver Charts SILVER 08/22/2012 21:32 30.03 30.13

+0.20

+0.67%

Platinum Charts

PLATINUM

08/22/2012 21:31 1547.00 1557.00

+15.00

+0.98%

Palladium Charts PALLADIUM 08/22/2012 21:31 634.00 639.00

+5.00

+0.79%

El Gordo's picture

Is it time...

...to start thinking in terms of BTFD again?

paisan's picture

Re: diamonds

I was able to spend $20 on a test kit and a few bucks on a scale and I can validate and assay (not fire, but roughly gauge 10k, 14k, 18k, etc) almost any type of precious metal. Gold, silver, or platinum jewelry, coins, flatware, teeth, etc.

i looked into a $1300 gemology course From GIA in NYC that would have spanned a few months, and I'm not sure that had I taken it, I would be able to judge the intrinsic value of diamonds now. 

I've also been under the impression that De Beers had vaults full of diamonds they were withholding from the market in order toto inflate prices. I just did some quick reading on Wikipedia though, and it seems their monopoly was effectively ended 12 years ago.  

The Watchman's picture

Replay of 2010?

Back in 2010 the Cartel defended the silver price under $20 through late August-early September.When it broke over $20 it rose 50% to year end-

ag2010.gif

 

Bollocks's picture

Ok, here's more conditioning...

There's going to be more and more of this appearing, I'm sure of it.

"US man Anton Caluori in court over 'threat to Obama' "

"A man accused of threatening US President Barack Obama by email and showing a shotgun to officers at his door has appeared in court."

The first half of that sentence is the important bit. Get it in your head that you don't have the freedom to criticise those in power. Try it, and see what happens.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19349581

Bollocks's picture

Gold

is looking pretty tasty too smiley

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