Feeling Good, Louis!
OK, now that we've got that FOMC nonsense out of the way, the rallies can continue. How much farther and how fast? Those are the questions.
In case you missed it, the FOMC minutes were QE-bullish. Essentially, The Fed stands ready for more "accommodation" if the economy fails to improve "substantially". You and I know that this is all bullshit, anyway, as The Fed is nearly out of ammo for additional Operation Twist measures and rates must be kept low permanently in order to sustain/protect The Great Ponzi. Again, review this if necessary: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4112/murmurs-10-year-note. However, nearly everyone should review that post because the CoT comments contained therein are also important for this current thread.
Anyway, from RanSquawk at ZH, here are three of the main headlines:
-
FOMC says many FOMC members supported extending the Fed late 2014 interest rate guidance, but agreed to defer decision to September meeting
-
FOMC says many FOMC members favored easing soon if no sustained growth pickup
-
FOMC says many FOMC participants saw new QE as bolstering US recovery
As you can see, these headlines speak for themselves. More QE is on the way, it's simply a matter of time. The only exception would be renewed, vigorous "growth". Does anyone rally see that happening anytime soon??
So where do we go from here? After bottoming in May and June, the metals are currently completing a 100-day consolidation and base. From here, we will rally back to the old all-time highs and beyond. Not that there won't be speedbumps and corrections along the way, there will be. However, prices are now headed higher.
Particularly silver. As mentioned in my CoT comments last week, it appears that the smaller "hyenas" are preparing to battle The Big Dog for silver supremacy. The hyenas correctly sense weakness and smell blood. The fat and lazy Big Dog continues on with business as usual, not knowing yet that it has been mortally wounded. As hyena confidence grows, they will up the pressure by forcing price higher and higher.
So here are your updated charts. At 1654, gold has clearly broken through the top end of its range and now looks to head toward its next battle, near 1675.


Silver is still battling to crawl above $30 but it is getting very close. With the FOMC behind us, I expect the hyenas to rage forward tomorrow and press their advantage. This should take silver to and through $30 and serve to draw in some momentum-chasing spec money to aid in the fight.


And here are two, additional charts for perspective:


I've mentioned how interesting last week's CoT was, well this week's should be a doozy, too. For the reporting week, gold rose every day, for a total of just over $40, and, prior to yesterday, total OI was down for the week. Again, prior to yesterday. I emphasize this because yesterday, while gold rose $20, total OI shot up by 12,000 contracts (over 3%!). This makes gold CoT data interesting because, clearly, some HOT money returned to gold yesterday in anticipation of today's breakout. But just who are these buyers? Cartel banks or specs? We'll get some answers on Friday.
The silver CoT will be even more interesting. After the big runup in the "hyena" long position last week, I've been looking forward all week to Friday's report. But now, consider this: For the reporting week, silver was UP $1.68 (6%!) but total OI fell by 1200 contracts. Clearly, to get a 6% move on declining OI, you've got quite a bit of short-covering going on. But, by whom? The SpecShortSheep? The Big Dog? Both? And how many contracts did the hyenas add at the same time? The CoT will shed some light on these questions and I can't wait to see it on Friday.
In random order, here's some stuff for you to read. First, this from Mark Grant via ZH: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gathering-storm
Next, this little ditty that some have posted already into the comments of the previous thread: http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=157430&sn=Detail&pid=102055
Here are your impending war and destruction updates for today: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/israels-iran-strike-routes & http://www.debka.com/article/22293/Iranian-leaders-in-Israel’s-sights-after-calling-for-its-destruction & http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/9490878/Irans-supreme-leader-orders-fresh-terror-attacks-on-West.html & http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-begins-construction-of-300-million-anti-aircraft-missile-base/
And here's a fun new piece from Mike Krieger where he discusses the greatness of Bitcoin: http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2012/08/22/bitcoin-a-way-to-fight-back-against-the-financial-terrorists/
Lastly, I need your help with something. I spoke with Andrew Maguire earlier today. He and his business partner Paul seem to really like the idea of an "OptionsTrades" service. Her are some random thoughts on the matter:
- I'm quite uneasy at recommending options trading to anyone given the inherent risks involved and my oft-stated concerns for the viability of the current "system". After the MFG and PFG debacles, everyone should be wary of holding cash, or anything else for that matter, within the confines of a customer account. That said, I could be wrong. That Ann Barnhart gal could be wrong, too. Maybe MFG and PFG are simply one-offs and everything is fine. I recognize, too, that there are still literally thousands of people worldwide who are still actively trading. Therefore, I'm content to go forward but under the banner of "proceed at your own considerable risk".
- I've been trading options for over 25 years now. In my "career", I've always been forced to enter The Den of Thieves armed with nothing but my own experience, wisdom and charts. To think that I could enter again but, this time, have the experience of Andrew Maguire to guide me?...well that is pretty compelling.
- After 25 years, I do at least have some idea of what I'm doing. All trades established by Andy and I will only be placed if we are in agreement that the trade makes sense. This clearly doesn't guarantee success but I'd like to think it increases our chances a bit.
- It's not going to be cheap but it shouldn't be. First of all, we don't want totally inexperienced traders taking a stab at it simply because the subscription is just $20/month. Additionally, at $250/month, the service would be a bargain. Subscribers would need to maintain an account balance of $15,000-25,000 so we're only talking about a 1-2% monthly vig.
- For those that don't trade futures options but do trade equity options, we'll try to offer an alternative ETF option play whenever possible. For example, a Dec12 gold call trade might be matched with a DecGLD call.
So here's what I need you to do. If you think this sounds interesting and you think you'd be willing to give it a go, please hat tip the first comment below. Since currently only TFMR members can hat tip, any lurker who would like to indicate interest can send me a quick email at tfmetalsreport at gmail dot com. If enough folks show an interest, we'll likely go ahead and set up the system. Thanks in advance for your help.
As I head out, I see we're still looking good at $1655 and $29.90. Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings!
TF
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Comments
Sterling gold
GBP gold showing a breakout from a long-term flag pattern on the daily closing chart:
I'll leave options trading to the pros
I'm just a noob. It's easier trading as a noob anyway. You pros do pwn, but you work for your pwnage too.
Crude
WTI Crude still holding above $97. and the USDX has leveled off again. Going to be an interesting day tomorrow.
@treefrog
I guess I look at it differently. I'm hoping for a tropical storm that left wing protestors will have to stand in outside while the conventioneers sit inside dry and warm.
Options Vs Gold coins
Remember folks, options often expire worthless
which is pretty much the exact opposite as holding physical gold.
Determine how much of your money is "safe" money and how much is "speculative".
@missiondweller
I hat-tipped that !
Now, where the dikkens is my Big-boy raincoat ?
Who is selling
http://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?or=-10&tv=100000&tc=7&o=-transacti...
@missiondweller,
"I'm hoping for a tropical storm that left wing protestors will have to stand in outside while the conventioneers sit inside dry and warm.
not only that, the delegates will have hotel rooms. many of the protesters will be sleeping in their cars or "occupy" style encampments. august in tampa is warm - very warm. humid too - very humid. add a hurricane, and it's fubar. all may go well unless the electricity fails (as it often does in hurricanes). then it will begin to resemble a chinese firedrill.
airline access to and from tampa will be a whole 'nother question! fubar!
Everything touching the year long resistance channel top lines
Once these a broken, it could go fast, however, this would be a perfect place for JPM to naked short and crash everything, reaffirming that PM's are not the place to be for the masses!
The next few weeks are going to be a turning point!
Personally, if I had real shorts on PM's right now, I would be pooping my pants! Up has more probability than down!
Astute new observations from Sprott
This is a MUST READ:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eric-sprott-financial-system’s-death-knell
TITS index must be honkin' lately and I like .....
What's Wrong With This Picture
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/atf-official-also-...
ATF official also holding private-sector job, Congress members say
In an unusual arrangement, a senior official of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives involved in the controversial gun operation Fast and Furious is receiving his government salary while working full time for the investment bank J.P. Morgan, according to two Republican lawmakers.
In a letter Tuesday to B. Todd Jones, the acting ATF director, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) and Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) said that Deputy Assistant ATF Director William McMahon, who oversaw the agency’s Western region during the Fast and Furious operation, has been receiving two salaries simultaneously.
The lawmakers said the ATF apparently approved allowing McMahon to remain on paid leave for four or five months while working for the investment bank in order to reach retirement eligibility.
“ATF has essentially facilitated McMahon’s early retirement and ability to double dip for nearly half a year by receiving two full-time paychecks — one from the taxpayer and one from the private sector,” Issa and Grassley wrote.
A history of exchange-rate regimes
A history of exchange-rate regimes
2012-AUG-22
It’s almost as if currencies are designed to confuse you. In fact, sometimes they even lie to you. Take the pound sterling for example; each 5, 10, 20 and 50 pound note assures you, the esteemed owner, the gracious right to redeem it for… 5, 10, 20 and 50 pounds respectively. Either there’s an awkward “I-give-it-to-you-so-that-you-can-give-it-back-to-me” manoeuvre involved here or somebody’s lying. Well, this quirk and much more is cleared up when recounting the evolution of currency systems over the past two centuries; and as it turns out this history is far more exciting than is usually let on (think political thriller as opposed to economic textbook!). So without further ado here we present a history of exchange-rate regimes from 1821 to the present day.
http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research-analysis.html
@ pforth ...
hey man, i'm gonna try to PM you to help you with a few of your questions - i'm no pro but would like to help if I may ...
Options service ...
Turd,
don't know if you've gotten that deep into it ... there shouldn't be as time sensitive an interface as the future's deal with Andy ... but is it going to be the same way? we are plugged into an interface or would we get emails or something - there's not as many moves each session as with futures ... And he's trading London while you're trading USA ... how are you guys going to make that happen?
BTW, are there are Turds on Andy's futures service? I need a primer. Saw the thread on GIM and that one dude is kickin' some serious ass.
Never A Bad Time For A Good Laugh
Options service
Made 500% on goldmine shares in the 70s - ready to go at it again. Sign me up!
fxmaxx
Hello Honky Tonks!
Missing Point
Not to disparage James Turk or GoldMoney but an important point was missed.
Countries accepted a peg to the dollar because Washington DC reached an agreement with OPEC where OPEC would sell oil only for dollars. Thus making the dollar the default currency reserve needed to buy oil and the dollar essentially backed by a consumable commodity and not real goods.
Oh, don't forget bullets. Military force protected and backed the oil for dollars agreement.
HUI
HUI has closed above the 144dma for the first time since early December. This has been a hard resistance since then. Once it clears 465, the HUI will have made a double bottom.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p56254631371
Lord of the Fed (Flies)
http://abstrusegoose.com/160
In My Time Of Dying - Live 1975
Classic 'Zep....I haven't heard this one in awhile.
Remember it?
@sprite
Thanks for that, although the purchasing power of sterling is definitely dropping, hence those hikes, particularly since 2006 I'm pretty certain are linked to those rises.
But point taken. Thanks.
A little more humor
New acronym.
Silver Criminal-Underground Manipulators = SCUM
News from the republic of Texas
http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2012/08/22/texas-judge-preparing-for-civil-war-i...
Bit of humor
"Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan"
is a perfect anagram of
"My Ultimate Ayn Rand Porn"
Adam Curtis documentary...
This is part one of a series of quite brilliant documentaries made in 2002 by Adam Curtis. Very VERY relevant to what we're seeing going on now.
From Wikipedia:
"The Century of the Self is an award winning British television documentary film. It focuses on how Sigmund Freud, Anna Freud, and Edward Bernays influenced the way corporations and governments have analyzed, dealt with, and controlled people."
The Century Of The Self
One: Happiness Machines
Do check out his other documentaries if you like this one. He really knows how to get to the bottom of things, and how to present what he finds.
A true truth-seeker.
@dynamo hum
"...The republican judge said that he himself will meet the enemy, “in front of their armored personnel carriers” to tell them they are not welcome, and has the county sheriff to back him up. “I don’t want U.N. troops in Lubbock County,” he said...."
Well, you cant fault him for having a brain. :) I am SURE his little speach to the guys in the APC's will leave them quaking in their boots.:)
Gotta love a Texan. One Man. One Riot. He has it handled. /sarc
Lubbock County can not be
Lubbock County can not be held by a force inferior to its native population. Everyone here is armed, and no-one likes the Feds. If there were more terrain here, it would be the ultimate redoubt.
Running out of gas
The QE hints from the FOMC sure didn't boost stocks today. Glad the metals are decoupling from the equities as we've seen lately. Getting excited about this rally - bring on the battle royale!