Not saying waterfalls won't come (we know they will) --- but I'm looking at this as a potential breakout of the zone & type of movement we've seen for months. A resolution of the descending triangle in silver happening?
Many of us figured a major move would approach us in late August/Sept based on the charts. Is this a headfake or the start of a major move we haven't seen in quite some time?
Another factor: Is a MAJOR event brewing? Jesse seems to think so based on some interesting numbers.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/08/net-asset-value-premium...
All of these fed fakes (head fakes) the cause of more migraines than any other source :)
If you stay at the keyboard long enough, like hours, you really get a feel for these algos. They're like rats sniffing out cheese all the while arrogantly prancing around the traps.
The only way to beat them is to be faster, more nimble and most importantly have better maps.
Not saying waterfalls won't come (we know they will) --- but I'm looking at this as a potential breakout of the zone & type of movement we've seen for months. A resolution of the descending triangle in silver happening?
Many of us figured a major move would approach us in late August/Sept based on the charts. Is this a headfake or the start of a major move we haven't seen in quite some time?
also not saying waterfalls wont happen, but technically on my system we are getting stronger and stronger.
the 29 day Bollinger squeeze on silver has finally fired off, Im glad it was upwards, but everything has been saying so for 2 weeks now. so Im also glad the technicals didnt betray me lol
interestingly the shorter gold one hasnt yet. gold is sitting right at previous highs and daily R3, with a squeeze in hand.. hmm.. not shorting at R3 here, even though I know statistically Pailins probably right yet again :)
the red line in top right is the final downtrend line, after that we're in breakout proper territory. might bounce off the 200ma (white) and or the trendline before pushing through. if we do, and we aren't beaten down lower again.
volume not looking very convincing, but who knows..?
Big reversal day in the making in equities. Very big bull trap at the top here if we have outside reversal day off a high pivot and then a close at the lows. Could be the ultimate distribution by SweatHoggery into the Bernank setup. The entire August runnup could be to set up HogMen for short opportunities.
do not know what this means for metals. It is not good if GDX fills its gap, shows lack of strength in the clinch and poor will. Once again the Market does not sleep, ever. Just when it demonstrates strength it can immediately reverse and a whole new psychological approach is needed. Most often that signals treachery.
Momentum players may well be looking to short baby longs that have strayed too far from the herd. Hunting season may begin again as a cycle of selling in equities resumes. Depends on close. Far,far too much complacency. Vix far too low. Constant and obsessive vigilance required and attention to defense. Very mixed signals for me and just really don't know in this position.
is difficult to distinguish, kind of like a legitimate rape to a congressman. (OT: I can't believe that stupid dickhead Akin is on the Congressional Science Subcommittee. We are doomed if he carries the science standard.)
I have no TA to add to the coiled descending wedge apparently breaking to the upside. It sure looks like that. But isn't it a certainty that the Bernank will NOT announce more QE tomorrow? Therefore, PM prices will be go down as he talks, if past performance is any prediction of future results. And, we all know that the easiest time to manipulate price is during low volume trading, before the Hamptons traffic returns.
So... when would there be a better opportunity to set a bull trap in the PM's than now? I have turned into an almost PM permabear during the so-called "consolidation". On the other hand (that would be the bull hand if a bull had hands), war is looking more likely in Israel's backyard and quite possibly, the central banks have acquired all the gold they wanted at the low sale price. It could be time for them to rip it good now to the upside.
Fron MO, we po' n dumm.
Sperm don't stick on good girls.
I still lurk here everyday but have become too dumb to post. Thanks to everyone still doing the heavy lifting.
It's on Thursday the announcement?
Hitting support on 20, 240, and daily charts. I don't think will hold, but I took off some profits, I've been layering in shorts since yesterday. If you're bullish may be good time to add.
20: http://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/ES/media/b2fc6304-8ade-4ec2-bfa7-74e657edbc30
240: http://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/ES/media/4c5eb1d9-4298-493a-b10c-1c7f3c418ec0
Daily: http://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/ES/media/b1633c2d-4333-4039-a467-203903d1dbf3
Hunting season is on again. Reversal in equities on good volume at key highs. A low close means momentum players will be looking for shorts tomorrow to put on as the entire psychology of the Market now reverses.
They are looking for Josie Wales. The bounty hunters. Just when Josie thought he was free and clear. Long riders spotted off a ridge maybe a day's ride away. A big dust cloud scattered behind their galloping horses, one that blinds a dying sun. Nightfall approaches. Chief Dan George and the kid will be waiting by the falls up the canyon. But no stories tonight and no fires. Just hollow sleep with one eye cracked for trouble and a loaded peacemaker slipped beneath the pine.
Miners unable to hold a gap up, not great at all but not bad yet. I simply cannot imagine if a cycle of selling now begins in equities how miners and silver continue to go up. Hope I am wrong but at the verry least they have needed help from momentum players all year now.
No tomorrow at 1400 hrs.
I think the most important thing today is that miners held well against ES. Is that a good prognosis?
(even though this might be the prudent course of action ),
and my head going a bit further into the lions mouth , a netdania
1hr overlay of gold and eurusd shows that even the most hopeless
romantics among us need to be cautious, & should be building gradual
positions only imo.
http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html
Any way you slice it, either as a floor or as a cap silver @ 29.24 is continuing the rally. The FOMC will probably not be that significant. I could be wrong.
"On another hand it might be a precursor to a dramatic market decline in equities, with a safe haven move into gold ahead of time."
Given the performance of miners wrt to ES today I am beginning to wonder the same. It's early but there already is surmising about DOW not doing well today, suggesting a possible downdraft over next few days. Yet metals and miners (less so) remain strong. Something I'll be watching tomorrow for sure.
I got myself confused about the Jackson Hole date and mentioned a few times here that it was this Friday (instead of next Friday). Sorry for posting this again, but I wanted to make sure I didn't infect anyone else with my confusion.
• Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Thursday, August 30th through Saturday, Sept 1st.
• Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on Friday, August 31st at 10 AM ET.
• ECB President Mario Draghi speaks on Saturday, September 1st at 10 AM.
And the FOMC minutes: 2pm August 22nd (Wednesday)
Equity markets need a rest, nothing more probably. I was over reacting and overly emotional today, its my old training. Yeah I made some today but I fell asleep at the wheel and into old bad habits .
It would be good for them to pull down and it will create tradeable opportunities.
Rotation will happen as well probably but you can't predict it, its just the zen of the Markets. Maybe there is rotation now into miners and they diverge from equities and maybe not. One day does not make a market imo. I disagree with Bill Murphy who takes the move today as a sign we are blasting off. That is a typically wild guess and it lacks accountability. If he has the crystal ball, how much can I fuckin pay for it and when?
Lets be fair. From now on for every wild call Murphy or any other metal head honcho makes that goes awry, I get one gold tooth extracted from his mouth on a penalty call.
GSR continues to break down. This along with today's action in both metals speaks to further spikes in silver. And it will soon be silver month, September. I agree with everyone here. Let's see what the next few days bring but if this continues I will not be waiting for FOMC in mid Sept. to position my miners. It will continue to be a day to day play but with a stronger sense of the horizon.
SW, no worries. I think there will be ample opportunity for all of us days ahead. Patience is a nice, kind word but the turmoil characteristic of Metallica neutralizes patience.
I wouldn't be too quick to discard your earlier take on the market.
We've been through so many false moves that it's pretty stupid to not have both scenarios close in your mind.
But I agree with your earlier posts that the breakouts in gold and silver are starting to look pretty convincing. Not just to us, but to a lot of speculators and hedge funds. (I basically agree with Turd's first post today.)
My impression is that it is now going to take some stiff "we see no risk of deflation and we're probably never going to try to print more money to save the bankrupt banks and governments" propaganda from Burnache before we see a strong reversal of the upward momentum. Even tomorrow, I don't think there can be anything in the Fed minutes which does more than set us back a day or two.
This is just my impression.
Of course, the propaganda could easily be released at Jackson Hole. I'm expecting such kind of talk come next Friday.
I think a big goal was achieved in the market pull back: most of the speculators have withdrawn from the market, giving the banks a chance to get a lot of their crappy bets off the table.
Moving forward, I think we're going to see a rear guard propaganda campaign from the banks and the Fed: using MOPE and paper to create nasty volatility as gold and silver creep up. But I think we have seen the bottom. (No guarantees, of course.)
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Heh heh. Pailin isn't shorting R3 either!
Just flat.
__________________
I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild
Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell