Hot and Explosive?

Tuesday, August 21, 2012 at 10:43 am

Yes, the past 24 hours have indeed been hot and explosive. Is it THE hot and explosive? Maybe.

As you know, I've been waiting for a "hot, explosive and historic" rally to begin. I'm sure most everyone is wondering whether or not this is the beginning of that move. In all honesty, I can only say "maybe". Let's talk about another option, first.

As you know, The Fed last met for an OMC meeting three weeks ago. At the conclusion of the meeting, the "Fedlines" were released, giving us all some idea of the things The Goon Squad discussed between steak dinners and trips to Cheetahs. Tomorrow, after a 3-week delay, we get the release of the official minutes of the meeting. As you also know, we have already had five or six occasions in 2012 where prices ran up ahead of a Fed/Bernank announcement, only to be summarily beaten back immediately following said Fedlines/press conference. This could be just another occurrence of the SpecSheep being led to the shearing barn. Could. It also might not be.

As we discussed last Friday and over the weekend, the CoT last week was very, very interesting. At 47,797, the gross commercial long position in silver is the highest I ever recall seeing it. Additionally, Uncle Ted suspected that the 4,752 increase in the gross commercial short position came almost entirely from JPM. From there, I began to wonder if we were about to witness a "civil war" in silver.

I used an analogy with Mister Hyde this morning that I think I'll use again here. Currently, the commercials in silver act collusively to crush the specs. In a way, this is similar to a pack of hyenas on the Serengeti. The pack works together to accomplish the kills but there is usually a leader, a bigger male dog that leads the pack. This is all well and good until and unless the the leader ages, becomes weaker and distracted, and becomes vulnerable. At that point, members of the pack may begin to collude to oust the leader. The remainder of the pack may begin to act collusively against the leader and, when the day comes that their confidence rises to the point where they are ready to attack, the pack turns on the leader for their own selfish, potential gain.

So, the question is: Is the silver "leader" vulnerable? Has "the pack" begun to sense the leader's vulnerability? Does the pack know something that you and I don't about the leader's health and viability and, sensing this weakness, have they turned upon the leader?

Here's that word again: Maybe. Though I am supremely confident that the metals, particularly silver, are about to charge off into uncharted territory, I cannot be certain that this is happening right now. This is coming, however, and it is coming very soon. Perhaps the leader will survive and even play along? Maybe. In the end, it doesn't mater. Prices are going much, much higher whether they like it or not.

The metals are almost certainly getting some support from crude. As we identified last week, once crude broke out of its latest consolidation spot, it was likely to head toward $98-99, perhaps as soon as late this week. Well, we're already there, all the Iran v Israel grumblings giving things another shove higher this morning. The next short-term top and consolidation looks to come in just below par, near $99 or so. Let's see what happens from there but anyone trading might ring the cash register a little if give the opportunity to take some off near $100.

Finally, our pal Ned was on with Max earlier today and he did an outstanding job of discussing unallocated/allocated and a number of other items. I strongly suggest that you take the time to watch this video. Perhaps an admin could embed it below so that you don't have to leave the site to watch.

http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/episode-330-max-keiser/

I also traded emails with Ned this morning and he asked me to alert everyone to the falling gold:silver. Ivars has been doing a great job of keeping us up-to-date on this and I hope he'll post another chart of the ratio soon. A drop below 55 would seem to be something for which you should keep a look out.

And one more thing...I am going to begin to actively remove political and other content that is posted to the main threads that doesn't promote the wider discussion. Everyone already knows that O'bomney is guaranteed to win in November so we don't need a daily barrage of left-wing and right-wing propaganda/marketing. If you want to start your own site and publish all of that stuff, go right ahead. (Be prepared, though, as it is way more expensive than you might think) This is my site and I decide what stays and what goes, what gets published and what does not. This site is not your personal political propagandizing tool. It is a site that I have built for all of us to discuss the precious metals and our personal preparations for the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment. The "Main Street" thread our primary "front door" and I will not allow personal political agendas to slow or otherwise harm the growth of this site. Any registered Turdite has the ability to begin a forum where he/she can discuss anything on their mind. That person can then invite everyone else to stop by and share their views. This is the way we shall conduct business here moving forward. The American election is less than 90 days away and if we don't correct this now, I fear our site will be destroyed by mindless, partisan infighting.

That is all for now. As I go to publish, I see that the metals are hanging in there. This is good. One step at a time. Today's goal should be to close above $29 in silver and above $1635 in gold. Let's worry about tomorrow tomorrow. Have a fun day.

12:35 pm EDT UPDATE:

On the heels of he very impressive action this week, I am ready to declare that Battle Royale I has now finally been won by the good guys. Any attempts to raid price and dip it lower will now find support at the descending line. The next major battle will now be at Battle Royale II, the line connecting the 4/11, 9/11 and 2/12 peaks. This line currently resides near 30.50, which is the area where we also find the 200-day moving average.

I plan to write up a new post later this afternoon or early evening so please be sure to check back.

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Comments

What kind of right little b*tch

Submitted by Dagney Taggart on August 21, 2012 - 12:43pm.

receives a salary with borrowed money? Yes I'm talking to you, Chlorine Smith.

Chloe Smith

Submitted by Bollocks on August 21, 2012 - 12:44pm.

is an idiot...

"What these figures show is the importance of sticking to the government's plan"

Yes, it should stick to it's plan shouldn't it?

These gov't officials are absolute morons.

Oh, and for anyone who hasn't seen it, check this out - it's an absolute classic, courtesy of Jeremy Paxman:

skip to 6.18

Two things.

Submitted by Puck T. Smith on August 21, 2012 - 12:45pm.

1) "Any registered Turdite has the ability to begin a forum where he/she can discuss anything on their mind. That person can then invite everyone else to stop by and share their views. This is the way we shall conduct business here moving forward. The American election is less than 90 days away and if we don't correct this now, I fear our site will be destroyed by mindless, partisan infighting."

I feel compelled to hat tip DrkPurpleHaze for his tireless efforts the past couple of days on this front. He has been doing his best to get people into the forums where they can rant away. Keep up the good work.

2) I like the way metals have flattened out a little. Here's hoping the spend a few days consolidating. I'm afraid if they keep shooting up it means the bait and switch is on. I, for one, am ready for a few boring days.

Are All Betting That Financial Disaster Is Coming

Submitted by Nana on August 21, 2012 - 12:49pm.

http://www.blacklistednews.com/Jacob_Rothschild%2C_John_Paulson_And_Geor...

Jacob Rothschild, John Paulson And George Soros Are All Betting That Financial Disaster Is Coming

...........The amount of money that these men are investing in gold is staggering….

There was also news last week in an SEC filing that both George Soros and John Paulson had increased their investment in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest publicly traded physical gold exchange traded fund (ETF).

Mr Soros upped his stake in the ETF to 884,400 shares from 319,550 and Mr Paulson bought 4.53m shares, bringing his stake to 21.3m.

At the current price of about $156 a share, these are new investments of about $88m of Mr Soros’ cash and more than $700m from Mr Paulson’s funds. These are significant positions.

And the central banks of the world are certainly buying gold at an unprecedented rate as well. According to the World Gold Council, the central banks of the world added 157.5 metric tons of gold last quarter. That was the biggest move into gold by the central banks of the globe that we have seen in modern financial history.

But that might just be the beginning.........

Turd; Silver Support lines?

Submitted by Big Buffalo on August 21, 2012 - 12:50pm.

So, looking at your charts, would you say we're looking at a short consolidation period in the range of $29.25 and $29.92, with a strong support at $28.50?

@Mickey Options

Submitted by SteveW on August 21, 2012 - 12:57pm.

If you like equity options consider SLW rather than SLV. It is more volatile, with the ratio SLW:SLV moving from a recent 0.975 to 1.18. The company also receives and sells real silver.

I'm just overjoyed that my 3 month old Sep 30/33 calls are moving into profit. Worried a little about the RSI indicating overbought but if silver keeps moving up all should be well.

Monopoly

Submitted by ReachWest on August 21, 2012 - 12:57pm.

My 30 year old nephew just sent me the following photo and said, "Apparently, the US government has been turning to monopoly for help making rules".

Now, he was a fellow with a severe case of "normally bias", and he know's what Uncle ReachWest thinks about the ponzi economy and sound money. But recently, I've noticed a wee change in attitude.

Nice to see. Only a few hundred Million others, left to clue in.

RE: Dollar is diving

Submitted by Silver Alert on August 21, 2012 - 12:58pm.

I don't like that picture Nana. They appear to be shooting back.

No QE

Submitted by balz on August 21, 2012 - 1:04pm.

QE is impossible right now. Oil would go too high before the elections. It looks like a trap, but I hope I'm wrong.

The only thing I am sure is that when it looked like a perfect TA breakout on February 29, we know what happened.

TA is how they kill a sheep. Yes, they kill it too.

Alright, Im turning a bit bullish now

Submitted by tobydaniel on August 21, 2012 - 1:11pm.

Check out this guy on one of Americas information management machines yahoo finance.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/gold-silver-copper-heading-lower...

When they bash gold and silver without even mentioning that its two day pop, we are on to something. I still very much dislike this pansy action in silver with its pretty ruler straight chart, but this is good news. This guy totally ignores fundamentals and goes off of what? One last thing, watch the guys eyes when he is being interviewed. His eyes are going everywhere. Thats the face of a man who knows he is lying. I cant stand these crooks.

Please don't misunderstand

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on August 21, 2012 - 1:12pm.

MODERATOR

So I'll repeat it here:

The hot, explosive and historic summer is NOT based upon my analysis of TA and charts.

Response to: No QE

No offense

Submitted by balz on August 21, 2012 - 1:17pm.

I am not attacking your analysis, Turd. Simply, I thing it is convenient that a TA breakout happen before FOMC and it sure looks like February 29 again. Of course, I hope I am wrong.

@tobydaniel

Submitted by Bollocks on August 21, 2012 - 1:22pm.

"Thats the face of a man who knows he is lying"

Yes, and he's constantly closing his eyes. A sure sign of deception. It's like his body is trying to cut-off his projecting of the lies outwards into the world. His unconcious is screaming out "STOP".

Fed Court Rules Banksters Can Steal Pensions

Submitted by Nana on August 21, 2012 - 1:23pm.

http://www.infowars.com/fed-court-rules-banksters-can-steal-pensions/

Fed Court Rules Banksters Can Steal Pensions

In a court case glossed over by the corporate media earlier this month, the U.S. Court of Appeals, Seventh Circuit has ruled that individual segregated bank accounts may be turned into the property of a third-party under circumstances of duress.

“In other words, if a financial institution fails, clients, depositors and pension funds may not get some or all of their money back in a bankruptcy,” writes Dominique de Leveling de Bailleul for Beacon Equity Research.

The Sentinel ruling has legalized the theft of segregated customer funds and pensions by large banks and financial institutions.

Moreover, the ruling overrides protection afforded by Federal Deposit Insurance and other government insurance programs and leaves “millions of investors, depositors and retirees unaware that they are no longer account holders of their own funds, per se, but, instead, have suddenly become stockholders of the institution with which they have deposited their money,” de Leveling de Bailleu writes.

Ann Barnhardt points out that the ruling sets the stage for bankster consolidation ahead of an economic collapse.

Barnhardt writes on her blog that “all customer funds in the United States are now the legal property of JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs” and other mega-banks and financial institutions.

Ann Barnhardt points out that the ruling sets the stage for bankster consolidation ahead of an economic collapse.

Barnhardt writes on her blog that “all customer funds in the United States are now the legal property of JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs” and other mega-banks and financial institutions.............

29.50

Submitted by Bollocks on August 21, 2012 - 1:24pm.

wow

One Forum Entertaining Two Worlds

Submitted by Wizard on August 21, 2012 - 1:26pm.

We here on this forum are of two minds and subjects and many have not quite caught on to that yet. And they let that invade their thoughts and upset them to one degree or another.

1. On the one hand we have the daily investigations into movements in metals and commodities, which over the long term can become quite mind numbing to some. What with the manipulations taking the same paths over and over. But to others these actions provide clues to larger movements over time.

2. On the other hand we have the long term preparation for the End Of The Great Keynesian Experiment. Stacking and Preparations with not much interest in the day to day machinations and convulsions of the great house that is on the verge of falling.

These two worlds have come together quite nicely here in our little corner of the web and for the most part harmonize quite well. What I have come to understand is that these two worlds absolutely compliment each other and Number 1 gives us the information and insight to even be aware that we should be working diligently on Number 2

$29.50

Submitted by SIlverbee on August 21, 2012 - 1:28pm.

As previously mentioned!

Balz

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on August 21, 2012 - 1:28pm.

MODERATOR

I wasn't thinking that you were. I was just taking the opportunity to remind everyone of the main point.

And, yes, the last time we broke the BR1 line, it was only for a day on 2/28. The chart I posted is a weekly chart and it shows that the move off of 27.50 that began last Wednesday was the decisive action for BR1.

Response to: No offense

I hope you are right, Turd

Submitted by balz on August 21, 2012 - 1:32pm.

I hope you are right. After 15 months of correction, we are due for a breakout.

Anyway, silver been under 100$ is simply crazy.

In some years, one would laugh at that idea like today we are laughing at the idea that 8 years ago we could buy it under 7-8$...

Keep up the good work, Turd !

TITS Indicator

Submitted by keh10 on August 21, 2012 - 1:33pm.

Hey Turd, how's the TITS indicator looking? Maybe it can give us some much needed insight.

OK. Comex closed.

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on August 21, 2012 - 1:33pm.

MODERATOR

Let's all watch to see what JPM does this afternoon on the Globex. Now that this week's CoT numbers are set, will they come in and try to drive price back down? IF they do, will the other hyenas come in and meet their offers with commensurate bids?

Silver just went to 29.50

Submitted by Nana on August 21, 2012 - 1:35pm.

Crazy speculation

Submitted by Pining 4 the Fjords on August 21, 2012 - 1:39pm.

Point 1: So TF has made it clear that he has reason to believe that something big is around the corner. He has obviously given his word not to say anything further on this, other than to repeatedly tell us to stack, stack, stack... for the last month and a half. Some of us here at TFMR have speculated that it has to do with what Bill Murphy of GATA has mentioned at his site Le Metropole Cafe, namely that information is going to be made public regarding JPM's manipulation of the silver market. If true...

Point 2: Bill Murphy and Jim Willie have ALSO both heard from their sources that JPM still has a huge short position in silver, and possibly an even more gigantic derivatives bet on the price of silver... if this is the case, JPM would be currently occupying what potentially is an extremely dangerous position: needing badly to keep silver in check (maybe leading to defending 28.20 for 9 straight weeks like it was the Maginot line, perhaps...), while AT THE SAME TIME staring down the barrel of potentially serious public scrutiny for manipulation, at least if what Jim and Bill (and maybe Turd) have been saying is true... scrutiny which could clearly, if even for a short period of time, hamper their usual manipulative machinations through increased public and possibly regulatory attention?

So... in this case, don't you think it makes sense that some of the sharks in the market might hear some of these same rumors, smell blood in the water, and start going long silver? Wouldn't this explain what Turd is calling a potential "civil war" in silver as regards the COT data showing BOTH a big increase in shorts last week (JPM defending the 28.20 Maginot line) AND other big institutions taking out fresh longs on a large scale, as rumors of this stuff start to leak out and gain traction?

Finally, if all this is true, can you see why someone might refer to this as "explosive" and "historic" ?

I can.