Pailin's Trading Corner

Looking forward to posting in the morning!

Maybe not useful to me personally, but still interesting news. It's been a terrible year for crops and if Bernanke turns on the printing press on full speed again this fall, a lot of people will start feeling the pain from the grocery bills. I just can't see any bright spots over the next 6 months.

I thought this was a good read:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/tales-unexpected-who-really-benefited-euro...

Interesting with respect to Rico's post on no good reason for PMs to advance in dollar terms as euro should not strengthen. PMs in euro terms look to be a different story however. Not sure one has to go "Gartman" and buy PMs in different currencies...looks like shorting euro v. dollar is most direct play...commodities are priced in dollars, so, as has been posted, weak euro/stronger dollar keeps lid on prices in US terms...with foodstuffs, stronger dollar often means marginal reduction in foreign purchases...this has limits though, as one can put off buying a car, but cannot put off eating very long. This comes in with yesterday's cotton spike (intraday up as much as platinum)...spike attributed to new Chinese buying program...hard to see how this will be, if demand is dropping...harder still if dollar goes up as well...anyway, talking my book a bit here, so we'll see next week...as to Yen, I hope I can get out without too much pain

Ive been reading some of this site, and thought this article was quite interesting

http://www.daytradingforexlive.com/forex-bank-trading-strategies/forex-for-dummies-simple-forex-trading-strategy/

their system seems to be based around identifying the bank manipulation events (Borg time?) and trading in the cycle around it.

you guys trying to crack cycles might find some useful ideas?  

I found them through the video here which was also interesting

http://www.thedisciplinedtrader.com/trading-discipline/stop-losses-in-trading-week-68

and I like the 4 min discipline videos on thedisciplinedtrader - Im supposed to play one to myself every morning before starting. thankfully thats not a 1 day trading ban in my plan for forgetting that, but maybe it ought to be at the moment lol

heres the intro video regarding the manipulation tactics from daytradingforexlive.com 

and another good one from the youtube channel.  makes a lot of sense

I sense metals could finally rally and surprise soon, who knows? Certainly there are some miners that have already broken out.

Reading this site I notice what the predominant theme is but I wonder if its going to help anyone make any money. All of the concentration is on prediction.Thats the fun,gaming aspect of trading. But what really in the end makes money is a concentration on position size and management while your in a trend and thats what really makes trading difficult. Everyone is gaming the time and trying to get it right but I know fromexperience that in the end that does not come close to the stuff generated by simple emphasis of how much am I going to buy or sell, how do I scale in if thats what I want, how long do I hold, how do I maximize a position, how do I hedge a position, how do I best trail stops, how do I best use stops,etc.

all the rest is minor league stuff to me anymore. Chart patterns,being right, getting emotional about the chart patterns. When I observe most other traders, the emphasis is always on patterns,signals and the like so I know that that can't possibly be how to make real money, its just the prelude at best but its what seduces most people I think.

Feel like I should also offer something of value, so:  reading the new book "Dark Pools", written by an accomplished WSJ reporter.  I highly recommend it as an overview of HFT.  

I'll bet not one in a thousand non-pro traders really know what is going on in that world, and even top pros, the guys that designed this stuff, are now having trouble with it.  I find it all extremely worrying, as it could easily set off a meltdown that would ripple across all asset classes.  The MSM, even the financial part, have absolutely no idea what extreme degree of risk this all represents.  This may be why we are now hearing new calls to get personal control of your share certificates.

Check it out.

as mentioned by TF also:

http://stocktwits.com/message/9172427

biggest concern would be would like to see more volume, but I think it may be on the way

Miners are beginning to go up because they have been down for so long and public perception is that they are toxic. They could stage a serious rally across the board soon since they are hated and despised and that's when the PigMen tip-hoove in and buy them. Just look at AEM. Used to be a big leader 2 years ago. Of course then it was raided and eviscerated, fish-gutted and left for dead in the gutter. It was the Death Star of 2011. Now its leading. Why? This kind of price action is controlled by SweatHogs who discount the price and then buy the bottom. Very large,smelly,hogmen with sharp,bristled grills. Classic,classic shakeout.

It is bullish that a few miners are now emerging as 'leaders' in front of this triangulated pattern in silver and gold. I think hot money will rotate soon into this sector, the same guys who have been buying Goog and AApl on the way up. But ultimately it is how you manage money in and out of these positions and how you ride a new trend that will make all the difference. Studies show that bottom pickers rarely make much on a trend change. They are concentrated on 'getting it right' and so are only short term.

Also I disagree with the estimate that only 5-10% of traders win. You have to break down what is actually being said. Scott Redler has taught me that what any decent trader looks for is the 4 month time window each year where even the mediocre trader can make money whether it be cash flow or real accumulation. The rest of the year is likely to be hard money trading where you need to take smaller positions, shorter time frames, tighter stops,etc. I contend that good,seasoned traders distinguish themselves by recognizing when this 3-4 month period of easy trading is in and how to maximize it. Then get the fuck out of Dodge after the bank has been robbed. Case in pt. if trading the equities would be you got easy trading in most leaders thru the 1st quarter this year then suddenly you had an outside reversal day as the 2nd quarter time window began, that was the warning to take the money and run.

I think even mediocre traders will find the markets profitable for at least 3 months out of most years. Its knowing how to spot the time window and how to really leverage it that makes all the difference and that does not have much to do with exact timing of tops and bottoms. An annual income can easily be made in 3 months of beneficit market conditions.  This is the great illusion of trading. Most can actually be winners if they adhere to this psychologically. Again I defer to Scott Reddog Redler over at T3live for pointing this out. There is a teacher over there who has leveraged in over the last 2 weeks in a tier system into 17 long positions in equities. He has already come close to making his nut for the year just doing that. Thats trading imo and it hasn't much to do with day to day market timing obsession.