Open Season on Turd
Every once in a while, someone will stop by to declare that all I ever do is "beg for donations". Up until today, that simply wasn't true. Unfortunately, now I'm left with no other choice.
This "Turd" stuff is a lot of fun and I have certainly benefited from it, both financially and personally. However it has, over time, turned into a business and to stay afloat, businesses have to bring in more money than they spend. To that end, I've undertaken four initiatives this year:
- Affiliation with a bullion, coin and storage service.
- Marketing of homepage advertisements.
- "Turd's Army" partnership with Andrew Maguire and Coghlan Capital.
- Development of TurdTalksMetals.
It was my hope that these initiatives, when combined with Google Adsense revenue growth, would allow TFMR to not only be profitable but grow and expand. Unfortunately, this hasn't gone according to plan (hopes).
- The affiliation with HardAssetsAlliance only just began last Friday.
- I've been able to "sell" just two homepage ads. These ads currently generate $650/month in revenue but are, of course, subject to cancellation and renewal.
- General lack of interest in trading has led to only a handful of Turdites joining "The Army".
- Delays, technical issues and merchant provider/processing problems have left TTM with less than 200 subscribers so far.
And, after 15 months of a brutal silver market and 12 months of pain in gold, overall site traffic is down quite a bit. From a peak of 30,000+ unique visitors per day last summer, traffic has been nearly cut in half. Because of that, Google ad revenue has been cut by more than 50%, too.


But expenses for running such a popular site continue unabated. Each month, I pay almost $1000 for servers that allow all of us to post nearly anything we feel is relevant. I also pay nearly $2000/month for tech and moderation support.
And then there are issues like the bot/DDOS attack last February that exposed holes in our platform and brought down the entire site for 36 hours. To fix this and to implement changes that would prevent a recurrence cost me $3675. Other unforeseen issues invariably spring up each month, adding $500-$1000 in additional expenses.
Anyway, my point in sharing this with you is this:
TFMR, in its current form, isn't working. The plus side of the ledger only includes the Google and direct ads as well as the affiliation revenue. The minus side includes all of the server and tech costs as well as anything else that might crop up. In total, this site is either losing money or barely scraping by so, from a personal standpoint, I have to make some decisions.
- First, I need some more donations. The TFMR bank account only has about $1,500 in it and I am past due with Ron to the tune of about $8,000. My plan/hope is to pay this down with TTM revenue but, with only 200 subscribers at about $7/month profit, it's going to take a while. Therefore, I'm asking for some help.
- The last time I asked (begged) for donations, a number of folks signed up for $5 or $10 recurring monthly donations. This was very nice and much appreciated. Unfortunately, once TTM went live, many of these same folks apparently decided that TFMR must not need cash anymore because they subsequently discontinued their payments.
- IF you feel that this is a beneficial site and worthwhile endeavor, please help support it. Contrary to myth and legend, The Turd is not some kind of independently wealthy, semi-retired ex-trader. If TFMR and TTM cannot be made into profitable enterprises, I will be forced to make some hard choices.
Possibilities going forward include:
- My plan was, and still is, to keep TFMR as a completely free-of-charge, educational and community-oriented website. If site traffic can get back to where it was (a hot, explosive and historic summer would certainly help), ad revenue will increase sequentially. Perhaps the assorted affiliations will grow, too. And, if I can make TTM grow, the revenue there will help to compensate for the shortfalls of revenue here at TFMR.
- But I have to consider whether, perhaps, this entire TFMR idea was a mistake. One possible solution would be to migrate back to blogspot where there are no server or tech fees each month. In theory this sounds nice but we'd also lose all of the things that we've come to take for granted here such as podcasts, forums and moderation.
- Unfortunately, I also have to consider shuttering TFMR and the blogspot sites entirely and moving everything to the subscription-only platform at TTM. This is the advice I consistently receive from folks who only see all of this as a business. Look at all of the newsletter and subscription sites that are out there...from Prechter, to Ackerman, to Maund, to Butler...I could go on and on. They all make money. Lots of it. And none of them have to deal with the day-to-day issues that we have here.
So, anyway, I've got a lot of thinking to do. First and foremost, though, I need some help. Every donation I've ever received has been met with a sincere and personal thank you and this shall be no different. Please help if you can.
I suppose I could post this as "read only" so that I don't have to see all of the "Turd is a greedy SOB" comments that will most assuredly follow. I'm not going to, though. As always, the comments section is yours to say and post whatever you'd like (as long as it's civil). Call me what you want, post your condolences and/or subject me to scorn and ridicule, I don't care. I'm fair game and it's open season. Have at it.
Thanks to everyone who has made this possible for the past 2 years. We'll see where we go from here and, as always, I'll keep you posted.
TF
TF Metals Report is supported by voluntary subscriptions and donations. DONATE TODAY!








Comments
Turd
I followed you from ZH to the blogspot website. But I wanted to let you know you sound like a politician trying to raise "revenue." Just kidding... well maybe not ;) You should slash costs, not raise money to keep things going with bloated bills. I know you created the blogspot website as a way to discuss metals and the end of Keynesian experience on your own turf. The goal was to prepare people. You'll have to make that decision yourself on which path to take. Do you want to join the ranks of a sole subscription service like so many others to make cash or stay with your roots of a free community discussion? There's no wrong answer, its what makes you happy. We're all grown ups around here... if tfmetals ceased to exist we'll find new roads. Maybe some of the people here will make those roads.
I think the membership at this site is pretty cool, there's a wide variety of personalities which keeps me coming back. I would seriously think that if we all met together in person things might get out of hand! Probably best we stay behind our computers :)
But like I said, its what makes you happy in the end. Don't worry about us, we'll be fine :)
Thoughts....
(1) Turd... my hat's off to you always. I appreciate everything you have done and respect your honesty in putting these issues out into the community.
(2) If this is a business for you, then treat it that way behind the scenes. You are paying too much for your servers and for your support team. If tough decisions are required, then you need to step forward and make them. I think you have become too dependent on your "consultants" and need to learn more about the tech and administration of your site on a first hand basis. I do believe a vetted volunteer moderation team would be very effective and cost you nothing. Save the consulting fees for site add ons and programming only, but that should be the exception not the rule.
(3) Consolidate your brand. I think it was a mistake breaking your focus into TFMR and TTM. It distracts your ability to grow the business.
(4) In consolidating your brand, make TFMR membership a flat $10 per month or $100 per year subscription. For that fee, the member gets to post comments and is given access to special podcasts for members only. Anyone can view your post and should be able to hat tip comments. I think you are missing a vital conversion element that you previously had by allowing anonymous hat tips by lurkers. In order to get lurkers converted to members, you need to increase the "stickiness" of their participation and the hat tips were your pathway.
(5) Get rid of the "Leaderboard".... have the information about a member show up on main street, like you have it displayed in the forums.... Just a thought.
(6) Keep Google Adsense and paid Banners on the new consolidated TFMR site for both members and non-members.
(7) Create a Quarterly or Monthly Newsletter under the subscription model. The pricing could be $80 for Turdville members and $120 for non-members. This letter should be a meaty and well researched encapsulation of your future thoughts about important issues on the horizon.
(8) Develop Silver Rounds and sell them by the tube. Do this quickly based upon your own explosive thoughts. (Note: Downside - upfront costs and inventory. Upside - you will be able to profit from selling your custom rounds as the price of silver increases).
P&L Statement
(A) Existing Business Model
Revenue
TTM Subscriptions = 200 * $15 = $3,000 per month
TFMR Google Adsense = $1,500 per month (average)
Banner Ads = $1,300 per month
Other Revenue = $200 per month (?)
Total = $6,000 per month
Expenses
Server Costs = $1,000 per month
Admin, Mod Consults = $2,000 per month
Site Development Amort = $1,100 per month
Other Expenses = $600 per month
Total = $4,700 per month
(B) New Business Model
Revenue
TFMR Subscriptions = 600 * $10 = $6,000 per month
TFMR Google Adsense = $1,500 per month (average)
Banner Ads = $1,300 per month
Other Revenue = $200 per month (?)
Total = $9,000 per month
Expenses
Move Server Costs = $600 per month
Volunteer Moderators = $0 per month
Programming Support = $200 per month
Site Development Amort = $1,100 per month
Other Expenses = $600 per month
Total = $2,500 per month
It might take 2-3 months to reach the 600 subscription level, but it will pull from a larger pool. There will be some one-time expenses to migrate to a new lower cost server and some programming costs to convert TFMR into a pay site with specific access rules.
______________________________________________________________
I hope my thoughts have been helpful. I agree with Pining... you need to think critically about both sides of the ledger, revenue and expenses. A small business man, like yourself, needs to vigilant about his costs and learn all aspect of their business so as to ensure costs are always manageable. :-)
hey Roark
I'm pretty sure that I am on *double secret probation* anyway so here goes, Mod Jane and donations do not mix well, the most confusing part to me is the timing.
@Mod Jane - Appreciate your input...
...but Turd did indeed ask the community for input. I don't think it's your position, as a paid consultant, to necessarily try to quell on open and honest discussion regardless of your personal thoughts. You and your company may have a vested interest in the current setup. Ultimately, I know that Turd will take the best suggestions from the members here and will talk it all out with his consulting team, of which you are a part of.... As a small businessman, though, he needs to look at both sides of the ledger in order to see how best to proceed.
@ Mod Jane
Sometimes I walk away from the personal computer for hours but leaving it logged in. Does Turd get dinged for that?
@TexasStacker
Re: How to email Turd.
Try "Contact" button on the top bar, hope it works, haven't tried it myself :)
Victim of your own success
In addition to what others have said, it occurs to me that you may be a victim of your own success. Like many of your readers, I have - over the past year or two - converted my meager IRA and stock holdings into physical metal. I still read your posts every day, but - basically - I've already followed your advice, so there's not much more I can do.
Your stated mission has always been to help people prepare for the end of the Keynesian experiment. I would venture to suggest that you've done just that for the first generation of your readers. Now, it's time to bring your message to a wider audience.
If I were you, I'd look at survivalblog.com. The owner of that site has other people write most the posts for him, has a ton of ads, and has no forums, comments or moderation. I agree that the comments are a big part of what makes Turdville so cool, but I think most of us could easily live without the forums and the moderation. If axing those two features are what it takes to get your overhead under control, then I say go for it.
Whatever you decide to do, I wish you the best success, and I'll keep following you!
great idea paladex
I was going to post something similar, the fact that perhaps the audience has maxed out. Of course, some fireworks in the commodities will generate more traffic, but how can Turd continuously offer more products, services to generate revenue? That's a big problem. I really like survivalblog.com setup. I wish Rawles posted more and the repetitiveness of the articles can get annoying, but the idea of user-generated content is why web 2.0 succeeded in the first place. That's why the comments here are great because Turdites are scouring the web digging up things to post. Anyways, I'm rambling... but good idea Paladex.
I have an interest in
I have an interest in trading, but cannot join the Army. There is no resource for the beginner, and as one of the rapidly disappearing middle class Americans, I can't risk losing what little I do have saved. I know trading is risky, blah blah, I think you know what I mean. So I resort to stacking only, which doesn't generate any revenue for the site. It also doesn't make me want to sign up for anyones newsletters, etc, since it really doesn't matter, I buy when I think its low, and that's it. The forums have been dead for a while, so if you went back to blogspot I don't think that's a huge deal. Anyways, I do like the daily commentary on the market, so I will feed the Turd.
Chime In
Check is on the way via the snail.These markets really have hurt alot of us this past year and a half,it sucks.For most of us we will not be deterred but for some it has certainly been a drain.I was a Commodity trading Advisor and am only trading for myself these days because of evrything going on and I got tired of explaining the markets to my clients.Quite frankly I am also scared to trade other peoples money,don't think I want any part of it right now.
Turd,I feel your passion and I know you mean well.We have spoken before and I told you my situation.I really have been wanting to feed the turd lately anyway,you deserve it for all the time you put into this stuff.When the markets start to cooperate I will keep feeding.I have not signed up for your podcast for personal reasons and trading purposes I guess,call me mental if you will.
I think you have a strong enough following that you could charge a small monthly fee to access your site without pissing too many people off.The ones that get pissed most likely don't belong here anyway.You provide a valuable service and I think you should be compensated.
I know everyone is under certain circumstances,if 1000 readers gave $10 per month,I think the community would be a better place!
10 bucks is a pack of stoggies in some parts of this great land.
Turd,Thank YOU,Stress kills-you have done good,no worries!
Kitco ?
Down for maintenance for a very long time.
I leave TFMetalsReport open a TON...
And I'm certain it does not in any way require any additional server capacity to 'handle' my browser being open. Hell, I currently have TFMetalsReport.com open on 4 computers and 1 phone. Now, the fact that I press F5 about 30 times per hour on whichever computer I'm in front of whenever I'm not otherwise engaged... THAT consumes server resources.
But, as a 20+ year software engineer responsible for building solutions that support 20,000+ users, with 1,500+ simultaneous users requiring significant database access, dynamic page generation, and complex business logic executed server-side, I must say I find it crazy to pay that much for a server farm for a forum like this. We did all of what I just said on 2 fairly pathetic servers (though hooked to a pretty good SQL Server), and due to incredibly bad 'load balancing', 80% of the load always settled on one of the servers.
I'm going to have to support the 'you're getting hosed' side of this debate.
And I'll feed the Turd tomorrow.
Irk
Thanks, BP
For making the effort and taking the time to post that.
@mod jane
re your comment @10:35 pm:
ever heard of the concepts "conflict of interest" or "obvious bias?" ever think of how they might apply to your position on the question of which services turd should use/pay for?
i think i can understand your sentiment. i cannot approve of the abuse of your position at the "bully pulpit" to support your interests. shame!
Almost instant revenue suggestion
There are lots of posts tonight and I may have missed some of the many helpful and creative idea's.
My apologies if this has been suggested by someone else tonight. It's been a long day .
Is it possible to create a weekly 50/50 club type thing on here without it becoming a specific gambling issue or considered online gambling? I have no idea what is allowed in that regard and what the internet allows.
My idea for a long time has been for anyone who wants to gamble/donate to be able to submit $5 every week (or $20 a month) so that on a Friday you have a 50/50 draw after the market closes and some lucky Turdite gets the 50% (or less) of whatever was played towards it AND a yellow hat. I think you'll be able to create a substantial weekly inflow if you also include the hat in the winnings. They seem to be a popular draw also. Better yet, have a 50/50 draw that's not your typical kind and offer a hat and an ounce of silver or a free months subscription to the site (in lieu of the cash or silver. Some combo of those or seperately will work and it will provide a fun atmosphere to look forward to every week on a Friday. At some point when silver blasts off we might just have to settle for cash if an ounce becomes very expensive (Can't wait for that to happen!)
I myself can definitely shave $5 of B.S. spending elsewhere in my personal life to get in on the game (that provides a steady weekly revenue for TFMR) if I think I have a chance once a week to get $50 or an ounce of silver or whatever you decide on. Even if lots of people don't start to subscribe right away you'll at least have some other side attraction/promotion that's unique that you know many of us will periodically or routinely play the game weekly.
I suggest you make list of names of people that have donated for that specific reason(if this comes to be) and then make a corresponding number on a slip of paper and keep them handy to use when you draw each week and then let us know who won and what are number is so we know going forward with anticipation.
It seems you could have the equivalent and much more revenue on a weekly basis coming in as peoples gambling habits are reliable and were talking small peanuts on our end (some of us) but you'll be the beneficiary of most of the proceeds. 75% for the house would work fine also if one of us got something ....like an ounce of silver or two depending on the pot.
Get your pencil out and just figure that if only 50 of us played each week ( I see that easily happening) that $250 - 50% leaves you with at least $125. Personally, I could care less if I got the full $125. I think more people will play and it'll be closer to 100. But I'll use 50 people as the example....weekly.
I would prefer to see the site get most of the 50/50 donation but I would like an ounce of cheap silver (not a Kieser round, sorry/ugly) and/or a hat as the reward.
If you do it once a week you'll probably clear $800 a month @ 50 people per $5 'draw' once a week. I'm figuring on you keeping $200 and just giving up an ounce of silver and a hat maybe.
I think you'll find that this idea could potentially be a large promotional thing that will draw more and more people to the site and more importantly, consistent revenue on a weekly/monthly basis depending on how you set it up. Monthly donation for the entire next month seems right, and I can say right now...put me in for $20 a month if this potentially fun promo idea I have is feasible.
Make it feasible in some fashion and money will flow in.
Ka-ching!
I hope you seriously consider this potentially fun, rewarding and community building idea and let your pencil do the math. I see a revenue stream that could be established out of thin air and with the help of pieces of paper just like the Fed does. Except that you and all of us will benefit and any cheap silver you have will instantly become worth $200 bucks an ounce (your take at @50 people) if you look at it like that.
More people playing means your silver just spiked much higher per ounce. Surely an older oz. of silver you bought much cheaper can be sacrificed at a much higher price for this promo idea.
100 people playing means you'll have to cough up an ounce at a revenue benefit to yourself of about $400 dollars or so for that ounce (and hat).
Think it over and listen to your pencil.
Again...
...thank you all for your generosity in comments and financial aid. Much appreciated.
Whew, DPH
I'd have to check on the legality of that. Sounds sort of like an online bingo parlor.
And now we know why good
And now we know why good advice isn't free, because free is expensive! I can't remember the last time I saw a commercial giving me friendly advice without selling a product. Remember this real life economic example at TFMR the next time you hear someone disparage fee-based newsletters as snake-oil salesmen.
I once had the "brilliant idea" of marketing a campaign to encourage people to save and invest money in the actual companies which made the products instead of consuming them. Instead of a fancy $1000 purse, sell a generic purse emblazoned with just a ticker symbol. Or a tshirt with just AAPL on the front. Are tickers copyright protected? Then I got intellectually honest with myself. Anti-consumer investor? Duh, it just doesn't work that way. (I still wonder if a modern CEO would rather have customers or bagholders? Once you go public, all bets are on!)
Like others are saying, there just isn't a lot of money in advising people to save their money. Message received! I put all my money in silver. None for you! I kid personally, but philosophically, not really.
I know this isn't about making money riches from the internet for you but rather your time and that cost to your family. If it costs more to broadcast the message than the audience is willing to provide, then something must change and I very much doubt it will be the audience. Keep the free stuff free, on BOTH sides of the ledger, and make us pay for the advice/community. Payers will pay and other will do without. That's life and that's Austrian economics.
Good luck Turd, I'm with you whatever you decide to do.
Call it a donation / Rain Song
Just consider it another type of donation and don't call it gambling. It's just a unique donation method that you chose to refund in a small and unique way. It's all about the silver for us and getting revenues for TFMR. It's a win/win.
You give hats away for free. All you would be doing is giving an ounce or whatever away based on people's donations, not their so-called 'bet'. The manner how you choose to pick a winner is your call. You already allow us to pick the closing of silver or gold to determine the winner in those instances where a hat is involved. This way, you pick a number from a yellow hat for us instead of us guessing a price level.
You'll be the one picking the numbers once a week and we'll only need to know our number one time going forward. Please consider the idea of creating something from nothing onto little pieces of paper that you hold.
Like the Fed and Ben and his printing press
Goodnite Turdistan...tomorrows another day.
Do NOT force people to pay to
Do NOT force people to pay to comment. That is how you kill community based sites. These types of sites exploit content that is created by commenters. Most of the pageviews are by commenters. Cut the userbase to 600 (which is wildly optimistic, I will explain in a moment), and you will cut your ad revenue by some percentage, probably a large one.
While Turd was able to attract 200 users to TTM, I don't think he could get much more than that to pay to use this site. Maybe double. The reason is that there is a psychological barrier that must be overcome to get people to pay. The actual cost (when the cost is economical) is secondary. The trick is getting people to shell out. Whether the price is $1 a month or $10 doesn't much matter.
Assuming that really is the case, then perhaps you should examine raising the price of TTM and leaving everything else as is.
Also, here is a good article on the economics of the internet: http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/16-03/ff_free?currentPage=all
Two Gun Goes gold mining
Hey Mr. Turd, Last trip to the claim I panned about $50 dollars worth of flakes. That's just what I sent off to you!


The Sluice, the tools and the payoff.
Here's a little number that I picked up on sale. Dont see many 50oz bars around.
Keep the faith, no matter what path you end up on..
p.s. the fiat not the flakes
TTM difficulty
Hey Turd
Last week I tried to subscribe, but the form was rejected every time based on the requested contact phone number.
I tried every combination of Sydney based number, and still no luck.
Sent off an email to admin, but no response.
For me, probably wouldn't utilise TTM as much as here, but this was my way of you having a constant stream of income from me.
I will try again, but you should know that this is one glitch possibly holding back subscribers.
Further thoughts: You should
Further thoughts:
You should probably be targeting the top 1% for your income here, rather than scrambling for money from everyone. I would pay much more for an ultra-premium service where you reveal EVERYTHING, including all the information you are currently holding secret which points you to believe in this "hot, explosive summer". Clients of this service can sign confidentiality agreements, and get to participate in conference calls with your contacts, which are recorded, and made available for those subscribers that couldn't make it to the call. As time passes, and the contents become less sensitive, you could release them first on TTM, then on TFMR, IF you wanted to.
tmosely said: "Do NOT force
tmosely said: "Do NOT force people to pay to comment. That is how you kill community based sites."
I don't know if that was in reference to my suggestion of keeping free stuff free and make us pay for the community. If it was, I want to clarify that keeping free stuff free meant wordpress or blogger style free still with the ability to post comments. Just without the $3k. The TTM 200 subscribers I'm sure pay for all the costs needed to maintain itself and in fact are subsidizing the "free" for all.
If it wasn't in reference to my comment, then forget about all that macho shit and learn to play guitar
@ PF
tmosley was probably referencing Dung Bug's suggestion: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/199309#comment-199309
Adding some Nonsense to the fray
@all let's rally/chip-in
,a bit. I complain way too much and take this fine place for granted, let's keep it rolling!
I wasn't talking about anyone
I wasn't talking about anyone in particular. I just noticed a lot of people saying that people should pay to comment, which sets off my "conflict with human nature" alarm bell. I used Prize Fighter's figures because they were convenient, not as a critique of his ideas, which I don't even remember at this point (it's WAYYYY past my bedtime).
Repeat question to site admin
To site admin:
What precisely are you doing for 1 hour a day on the website?
Is that hour the hour used to post comments and to edit or limit comments on the comment section?
Or, is it actually software engineering and software admin on the host servers and databases?
There is no disrespect here. The question is asked because TF is being charged a substantial hosting fee on servers that are unlikely to be solely hosting this website.
This website has become an international resource and now ranks highly on most search engines. The contents of the forum and discussions are also ranked when one searches for individual pseudonyms and topics.
I have asked during a prior posting to justify the 30 hrs per month. Please consider responding to this request. If you do not, I will feel very comfortable encouraging the host to move.
@Roark & IRB on server issues
Guys, excuse me for being a little grumpy on the server issue, but each and every time this stuff comes up, people go on and on about how Turd is being "raped" when the server costs are actually quite reasonable for the level of traffic this site gets, and the cost of support is MUCH LESS than the cost of a McDonald's employee!
Roark wrote: THE man just asked for our analysis. And as such, it was freely given. Genuine concern from folks who just might know a thing or two. If you dont like that analysis, then post one of your own. But honestly I wonder about your motivation here.
You are supposed to be the even hand here. Perhaps you should reconsider your remark about armchair web developers.
Yes, how about I BUILT this site from scratch and I would HATE to see it destroyed by cheap ass servers and crappy bottom of the barrel web development. And I just spent a good part of July getting Turd Talks Metals working after the NIGHTMARE of bad web development it had from the other designers. Normally I wouldn't be that blunt about it, but I take some pride in my work and would hate to see this site ruined by bad advice or people who are going to hire out to $5/hr developers from India.
But you are right, that makes me less objective.
If anything, I was already going to suggest to Turd maybe getting some really cheap administrative support for emails and stuff, but that stuff I really don't feel is good to discuss publicly. We've also discussed using a different type of hosting plan that would perhaps charge less when the traffic is less, but because this setup was finally stable, that plan was put on hold. So it's not like we don't think about saving money when appropriate.