Summer Heats Up

And it has only just begun...

Comments

brokerk22's picture

@byzantium

It just means the price is going higher than you can imagine.  Believe it!

brokerk22's picture

Mania

All of these costs going up just means when the mania stage comes (most likely within the next 2-3 years)  Turd's site will be lit up like a Christmas tree and all the trolls will be gone.  The price will rise dramatically as no physical silver and gold can be secured.  They will then turn to the miners and none of this drivel will matter one bit a year or two from now.  I urge everyone sit tight and be right if you have the mental toughness.  If not then get out and quit bitching.

Byzantium's picture

EuroGold update

we seem to be in the foothills of a breakout here... compare and contrast to the dollar version. The highest goldprice in Euros was 1345 last summer, and we are just 28 Euro away from that.

Probably nothing will come of this in the short term, but if the Euro currency takes a sudden hit at current Eurogold prices, we could be in record Eurogold territory there and then. Then the entire gold market may take on a whole new dynamic.

If I were JPM, I'd be keen to do a quick smack-down in these circumstances, if FX moved against me.

Fat Willie's picture

Broker22

You need to go and look at srs's body of work. It is quite exceptional. If you think that is bashing, we would all LOVE to see your contributions.

Steve/srs - please keep up the great work. Many h/t's to you.

FW

exiledbear's picture

Not only the euro/gold

Bitcoins are back at the $11 handle and look like it wants the $12 handle.

You can fool some of the people all of the time, all of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all of the time.

Just goes to show you that they're more interested in suppressing headlines than anything else. Nobody's watching bitcoins or eurogold, so no suppression.

How many fingers do they have? The dike is springing leaks...

SRSrocco's picture

REPLY @ SRSROCCO.... THE MINING BASHER

LARRY & BROKERK22....  I always appreciate the comments.  That being said, the reason why I put this information out is not to BASH the miners, but to reveal what is taking place in the industry as a whole.  I use individual companies to show what is taking place on a global scale.

FIRST... I like the gold and silver miners a great deal.  I believe they are really the only companies out their producing REAL MONEY fer pete sakes instead of the morons from the central banks who think adding digits or printing money is creating money.

SECOND.... Mining companies are a more risky investment than bullion.  I believe we are in different times today and it is best to be in physical metal.  Now if you have extra money laying around or if a close relative just kicked the bucket and you have wads of cash, then by all means... miners are a good place to put that extra money.

THIRD...  The future energy situation is more dire than what the present oil industry is putting out.  There has been a great deal of HYPE about shale oil and the United States becoming energy independent.  These folks propagating this nonsense are completely FOS... full of sheet.

I am going to reproduce these two charts from my previous article to prove my point:

Those who don't believe in peak oil... just have to open their eyes and look at the facts presented above.  Numbers don't lie, just braindead industry leaders and the MSM.  The annual growth of oil is declining right along with the global GDP.  When we go negative, so will the global GDP.  Why on earth would the world grow their base metal production in this sort of environment?

It's not just the global supply of oil that matters, but how much that can be exported.  Oil exporting countries suffer from two problems:

1) declining domestic oil production

2) increasing domestic oil consumption by their economy

This has a compounding effect that is shown in that chart above.  If we have a conservative 1% annual decline rate of oil until 2020, AVAILABLE NET EXPORTS OF OIL for all the 157 importing countries minus CHINA & INDIA will fall from 32 mbd to approximately 16 mbd by 2020. 

S0, even if mining companies wanted to grown production.....how will they do so, if oil exports are declining in this fashion?  I am simply amazed at the amount of STUPIDITY & IGNORANCE in the mining industry.

LASTLY....the information I am providing on the gold and silver miners is revealing that they need much higher prices to keep up with costs.  This is good for the precious metals and for the miners once the real price of gold and silver are hit.

I am not ANTI-MINERS....  I am anti-stupidty & ignorance.

ClinkinKY's picture

Yeah, way OT but...

...this is what passes for "validation" for passing new laws regarding "hate crimes".

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Before the resident "chicken littles" post their accusations that I'm anti-gay (see yesterday's accusation of "racism" against other's posts) just know that I have family members who are homosexual and I love them the same as any other member of my family. (It's a damn shame that this disclaimer needs to be posted).

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If there were no video, would this have been a teachable moment?

 

Posted by William A. Jacobson    Thursday, August 9, 2012 at 9:49am

30

 

20

 

Another fabricated hate crime, this time by a gay man who claimed to have been beaten outside a bar.

Via NY Daily News:

A 22-year-old Montana man who told cops he was beaten up by gay-bashing thugs  while club-hopping on his birthday — igniting calls online for protest against  homophobic violence — made the whole thing up and actually injured himself, he  admitted.

Joseph Baken, of Billings, suffered the bruises and cuts to his face when he  smashed it against a curb while attempting to stick an Olympic-style backflip in  the street, he said….

Photos of Baken’s battered face were posted on Facebook, Tumblr and other  social media sites, prompting an outcry against homophobic violence and calls  for protest.

However, a tipster sent a video to the Independent that showed Baker trying  to impress his pals by doing a backflip off a curb sometime around 2:30 a.m. on  Sunday.

Baker flubbed the stunt and landed on his face.

The newspaper passed the video on to police, and Baken quickly copped to  lying about getting jumped.

Missoula police said they decided to file charges in-part because Baken’s  story caused so much outrage.

The fact that the fake hate crime was gay bashing isn’t what is important — there is a deep history of fake hate crimes based on race, sex, religion, and so on.

If there had been no video to expose the fraud, would this have been another teachable moment in which we were told to look inward to examine who we are as a nation and culture?

(language warning on video)

I Run Bartertown's picture

Clink

I won't make assumptions about you, but that sidewalk was homophobic, for sure.

ratioarbitrage's picture

Thanks @xian ren - more thoughts from the Chinese govt

Thanks so much! I was tempted to try translating the whole thing but my mandarin is not up to it! A service to Turdville indeed.

I could not resist posting some more Google translated bits for those who found themselves unable to plough through the Googletreacle or who could not access the site:

Language barrier notwithstanding, it is obvious enough what the leaders of 1.33 billion people are thinking about this.

Actively build and implementation of the national gold strategy

  Gold because of its inherent value, both the national credit money and the cornerstone of global strategic resources. 

  In fact, since the discovery of gold, it is because of its good stability and the scarcity of people exchange labor measure of value and an important means of wealth reserves. With the deepening of global economic integration as an important international reserve asset, gold in the stable socio-economic, to protect against inflation, the national credit, stabilize the exchange rate, but also have the special status of other financial assets can not be replaced. 

In particular, the international financial crisis since the gold hedge against inflation function is to highlight the growing, the strategic position of the reserves of their wealth to regain the world's attention, central banks began to net purchases of gold. Currently, there are more and more people recognize the "golden useless" contains too many lies, in fact, have 74% of the world official gold reserves, the United States, to suppress the other currencies in order to maintain dollar hegemony design a "smoke." 

Sharp contrast with the U.S. dollar depreciated, the international price of gold continued to rise in 2011 exceeded 1900 U.S. dollars / ounce of gold assets should be preserved function and hedge the risk of depreciation of credit assets was. Naturally, the more devalued, the price of gold rose more, America's huge gold reserves, hedging is more obvious.

  Since gold is a monetary nature, whether it is a departure from the protection of national economic security, or accelerating the process of internationalization of the RMB to increase its gold reserves should become one of the core pillars of our development strategy. 

Of course, due to the large scale of China's foreign exchange reserves, the short term, like the United States and Europe so much as gold reserves to become the main channel of foreign exchange reserves. The current international price of gold record high, also increased the difficulty of increasing the gold reserve.Always advisable to wait the amount we need to develop a clearer strategy of the national gold from the long-term interests, and make full use of the two markets and two resources, continuing the bigger the scale of gold reserves, and gradually become a gold reserves of the country commensurate with its economic strength . Current conditions, in addition to choose the international market to increase reserves of gold, the main channel for the implementation of the national gold strategy is to increase domestic gold resources integration efforts, increase gold production and its rational use to do a large reserve capacity, and build a strong all-round.

From 2007 to 2011, China's gold production for five consecutive years, ranking first in the world, and build a complete gold industry to support the implementation of the national gold strategy.

To fundamentally solve these problems, the need for national gold upgraded to a strategic resource as important as petroleum energy height from the whole industry chain to develop the industry's development planning and resource strategy. 

  In addition, as an important component of the national gold reserve system, China should also encourage individual investment demand for gold. Practice has proved that private gold reserves is an effective complement to national reserves, is very important for maintaining the country's financial security.World Gold Council statistics show that our civil per capita of less than 5 grams of gold, compared with more than 20 grams of global per capita gap significantly.This shows that China's gold private reserve space and great potential.

Current, important is the full use of the country nearly 1,600 "China Gold" stores, expand marketing channels and improve the marketing network, and strengthen the brand promotion measures effectively to achieve "the gold in China", "possession of wealth to the people," the Gold strategic goal.

Wizard's picture

Regarding Rocco's Posts

I never took away from his analysis of the Mining sector that he was bashing them. I always looked at it from the perspective that the current low prices of precious metals is completely unsustainable. With some very in-depth analysis to support that position. With degrading levels of ore samples being now counted in the Grams Per Ton of ore extracted. And the ever increasing price of energy it takes to extract the metals

With increasing demand for precious metals especially Silver in it's Numerous Strategically Important industrial uses. And all of the new medical applications that is ever increasing with no real recycling of the silver taking place. It is either being destroyed completely in military applications or being put into land fills in electronic and medical applications.

I for one GREATLY APPRECIATE the great amount of effort that goes into these reports that Rocco so graciously shares with our community for Free.

W

brokerk22's picture

SRS

Your information is very informative and well researched no doubt.   The tone of your earlier posts were very negative and dampening to metal holders.   I for one am very confident a mania stage is coming that will make the tech bubble look mild.  Your research confirms to me that when the price is released it will be more than enough to load the coffers of miners with fiat.  By the way I am a broker and well aware of these costs.  I appreciate your research but would rather you not have such a negative conotation to mining equity holders as to prevent them from realizing the final prize.  Peace.

SRSrocco's picture

SOMETHING HAS BEEN ON MY MIND LATELY...

PEOPLE DON'T WANT THE TRUTH.... THEY WANT THE DELUSION

I have been writing articles for several years now.  One of my most read articles is THE COMING PARADIGM SHIFT IN SILVER.  It is ranked in the top 15 of most read articles of all time on FINANCIAL SENSE:

That article was PRO-SILVER.  I have been writing articles on silver and the mining industry and have been noticing the amount of reads.  People want to be told that their SILVER & GOLD are going to the moon, but they don't want to deal with the future energy situation.

My peak silver articles and articles on explaining the fuel consumption in the mining industry get a fraction of the reads compared to articles PUMPING SILVER AND GOLD PRICES. 

I see what is happening in the analysts community.  They put out these stupid PUFF PIECES and hope they get more reads, so they can sell their subscription to poor slobs for information that I believe is completely useless (overall... there are exceptions such as Jim Willie, Turds podcasts and etc).

So, if I want to be more successful online as in writing on the gold and silver markets, I should just keep writing about how gold and silver are going to the moon (and they are)... but I want to focus on the FRICKEN TRUTH as I see it, no matter if I get less readership.  Sometimes you have to do what's right... even though most do not believe so.

This is even true in the gold and silver community.  The want to be delusional about the future energy situation.  It seems as if they just want to get rich on their investments and the hell with the future... seems pretty shallow to me.

Anyhow, this has been on my mind for some time now.  I did not put up that table to brag about how many reads I got on that article, but rather to prove a point.  The gold and silver investment community wants to be delusional about the future energy situation as it would impact their mining stocks and their lives in general.  However, I can't be apart of that bunch because, as I see it, we are entering into a world very few have a clue.

HAS THIS CLEARED UP THINGS ABOUT ME BEING A MINING BASHER???

worldend666's picture

@broker22

There is every reason to believe that if Gold does do a moonshot that gold/silver miners will become nationalized or taxed to the eyeballs as they would effectively be printing money. I don't see miners as a leveraged bet on gold (and they have not performed that way at all since 2008). I own the real thing because it is much less likely to be taxed than producers.

Additionally SRS makes a good point that miners are subject to the same rising costs as the rest of the world and they can only benefit if the price of gold/silver rises faster than their input costs AND their minable ore does not degrade.

paperempire's picture

Not looking good for anyone who still believes in Rand Paul

Mickey's picture

Ben Davies at (Sush) KNN

talks about asian buyers now upped to 1600 and he will comment on costs at miners in that its positive.

Really-'s picture

@SRS

HAS THIS CLEARED UP THINGS ABOUT ME BEING A MINING BASHER?    No, not really.  Anyone of us can go to the quarterly mining reports and pull out information that can be put forth one way or another.  Also, "most popular content" on that site, is that akin to hat tip leaderboard here?

silver foil hat's picture

@IRB... Complying with Taxachusetts Law

I'm sure Fauxcahontas is pro-compliance with Taxachusetts Laws, including:

An old ordinance declares goatees illegal unless you first pay a special license fee for the privilege of wearing one in public.
Taxi drivers are prohibited from making love in the front seat of their taxi during their shifts.
All men must carry a rifle to church on Sunday.
Hunting on Sundays is prohibited.
It is illegal to go to bed without first having a full bath.
A woman can not be on top in sexual activities.
No gorilla is allowed in the back seat of any car.
Tattooing and body piercing is illegal. (Repealed in 2000)
Children may smoke, but they may not purchase cigarettes.
Tomatoes may not be used in the production of clam chowder.
Quakers and witches are banned.
Bullets may not be used as currency.
Massachusetts liquor stores can only open on Sundays if they are in Berkshire, Essex, Franklin, Middlesex or Worcester counties and are within 10 miles of the Vermont or New Hampshire borders.
Alcoholic drink specials are illegal.
Public boxing matches are outlawed.
 
http://www.dumblaws.com/laws/united-states/massachusetts
 
 
 
 
 
proformatrillionaire's picture

I would much rather read SRSrocco than KWN

any day. I appreciate your analysis here and would prefer to hear the truth rather than a bunch of campaigning for one's personal interest. I am long SLW, EXK, CZICF, physical silver & physical gold. Thanks SRSrocco for presenting analysis with the proof behind what you write. That is far too rare these days. I wish I had time to do research as completely as you.

Istack's picture

I think

i think SRSrocco is a basher of continuous cheap energy

keep the truth comin.  it tastes terrible, but it's good for my health

ReachWest's picture

Thanks SRS!

@SRS:

Thank-you for your well researched and thoughtful articles on both "the miners" and the coming cheap petroleum availability crunch. I think the vast majority of Turdites appreciate what you have to say and your efforts. Sometimes the truth can be painful.

I wish the world was awash in cheap abundant energy. I don't see it, though and (as a professional who spent 30 years in the oil patch) I believe we are on the "cusp" of an energy paradigm shift. To date, much of that has been masked by the ponzi fiat economy. But, your reports on miners and energy consumed per oz of product help to reveal what is really happening.

We certainly do need higher Au and Ag prices for the miners to continue and to turn their profitability around. And - I believe we will see those higher prices over the next while. The real issue is what happens going out further in time?  I also concur with your assessment that the energy cost for the miners to pull those oz's from the earth are going to go higher and higher. Perhaps there will come a point in time (someday) where the Gold and Silver we have already mined, is most of what we can economically expect to ever have. If that's the case, then it's a good thing that most Turdites have been and are stacking now.

Be Prepared's picture

SRS Articles - Keep Them Coming...

Steve does a fantastic job at putting together thought provoking and interesting original articles.  They take a great deal of time and research and, most certainly, are a great service to this community.  I don't think you have to with agree with any position one bit, but I don't we should call a positive community contributor... a "basher"..... The exchange of ideas is not personal and is not meant to be an attack, but these ideas are meant to make all of us think... critically.

I, for one, am glad to have SRS as a contributor here in Turdville...  I hope that we can support the exploration of different aspects of our changing world from many different view points.... it will only help us prepare more effectively and keep us all on our toes.  I don't want gold and silver to the moon.  I need to see the worms and bugs that are eating away at the foundation underneath my feet....our feet.

All of you, my friends, are reason that I come here... there is not a day that goes by where I don't learn a little something different.

P.S.  I also have spent over 20 years in the oil and gas industry.  I have worked on both down hole and downstream projects in multiple countries.  If you haven't watched Albert Bartlett's lecture series, then you're missing a big piece of your understanding about the coming storm.  EROI is a real factor and the picture is looking bleak.  With 7 billion people increasingly needing more resources, the trend line towards an energy crunch based upon cheap oil is coming sooner than any of us are prepared for...imho.

opticsguy's picture

SRS, do you have such an analysis for corn/soybeans?

energy input is a good chunk of the cost of industrial farming

exiledbear's picture

People and truth

Mostly people just do whatever they're told. Like those people who were told to go into the city, even though it was obvious that there was a tsunami coming in that would make whatever they were told to do - IRRELEVANT.

More and more, you need to stop doing what you're told to do, look around you and make decisions for yourself based on critical thinking and analysis.

bob4001's picture

ENDEAVOUR MINING AND WEST AFRICA GOLD PRODUCERS

Endeavour just acquired AVion "Gold..   and said it was looking at two more acquisitions in West Africa.  They usually acquire producers!

Any ideas of smaller producers that NEED help / money and could be acquired cheaply by Endeavour?  Territory of  MALI, Bunkina Faso,  Cote D'IVOIRE, Ghana or other in West Africa?   thanks for ideas!, 

ratioarbitrage's picture

Treasuries

I posted some comments a while back about XAG resembling the US 10 year yield x a steadily rising multiple (currently around 20). Hence my current speculation over a rise from 150 to 250 - in the presence of the fabled 103% debt to GDP ratio - sparking an unheard-of rise out of the downtrend, or not.

There have been plenty of comments and speculations on the long-term fate of Treasuries, but I am beginning to wonder whether this time the time may at length have come.

- The pattern we see now resembles October 2010, after which the yield put on 100 bp (and you know what happened to the metals)

- The election spells uncertainty, and we all know what international bondholders think of uncertainty

- Maybe just maybe the cash-delimited zero bound holds, 1.4 percent represents the minimum tolerable upside on a fall of yields to zero, and this is the lower bound. They have not yet brought us the cashless society.

Which - failing the not impossible scenarios of a conveniently collapsing Eurozone or a conveniently distracting war - raises an important question in my mind.

How will bondholders respond to a rise in yields of 50bp (60% there already), 100 bp or 150 bp?

Answer: it depends who they are, why they are holding and how they are leveraged. I am no expert but I would guess that there is less leverage now than in the past. 

Perhaps fancifully I imagine the stereotypical marginal bondholder as someone who is afraid of risk and therefore seeking a "safe haven", avoidant of gold and other tangibles due to credulity / peer pressure, but now anxious about the vertiginous level of prices, the limited potential for upside and the possibility of being part of the next generation of bagholders. But perhaps holding during the last burst of momentum, again due to fear of being the first mover. "I will have plenty of time to sell in such a deep and liquid market". Another glass please.

How many bondholders are there with such feelings? How many basis points does it take for such a marginal bondholder (if he/she exists) to  see that the downside exceeds the upside by a sufficient margin to overcome normalcy bias? And how many of the upcoming US events in Q4 will it take to run through that number of basis points? And how many weeks ahead of such events will the fear of them appear in the headlights? How many indeed.

Orange's picture

@exiledbear

Interesting video. It shows that the people taking the video watch what is coming, not knowing how high the water will come and yet they film, rather than act and move up hill. A little like a deer looking at headlights. 

A little like the people who hold cash and invest in treasuries. Stack!!

Roark's picture

In Re SRSRocco, A "Miner" child. :)

CalifLawyer will get that pun. :)  Everyone else... well... it's funny to me.

Some folks have emotional attachments to the shiny stuff, and that's okay. Others have attachments to the miners. That's ok too. Some brave souls have emotional attachments to both. (Sorry, no 12 step programs for you folks). 

Lets take the emotion out of it. Call gold "hay" instead, and use "farmers" instead of miners. When hay gets too cheap, the poor sodbuster driving the John Deere can't afford to plant and harvest a crop. So he sits on the sidelines going quietly broke (or he switches to a different crop). When the price of hay skyrockets due to demand exceeding production shortly thereafter, the market reacts with higher prices, and the farmer gets back on his tractor and tries to make hay while the season lasts.

With "hay" prices currently being manipulated, the natural process is short-circuited.  If you look at the balance sheets for the farmers, you'll see they're trying to produce the same crop, with less margin, while diesel prices are going up and the soil is getting poorer.

So are we now bashing farmers? No. Ain't bashing hay, either.  It's just a set of facts we have to deal with, and I appreciate SirRocco for pointing this stuff out.

Gotta jump. The Deere is outside idling, the bank is calling about an overdue payment on their note, and I promised Obama I'd keep farming until it's all gone.

Roark's picture

At Silver Foil Hat

"...No gorilla is allowed in the back seat of any car..."

Clearly you've met my mother-in-law... :)

Nick Elway's picture

Roark thanks for the great Hay Farmers = Gold Miners analogy

Excellent Roark!   I'll be borrowing this one.

Hay Farmers = Gold Miners   extends nicely too. 

The government keeps making it harder to produce and sell hay at a profit (even if energy costs were steady).

The government discourages 4H so the next generation is less likely to farm.

Eminent domain, crop quotas, "windfall profits tax" when Hay gets to $50 a bale.

Larry's picture

@SRS: Whoa now...

First off, thanks for responding to my post. Wow... took you only four minutes reply with two charts and a series of opines around my question... but you didn't answer any. Certainly that is your right, no worries. Perhaps there are no miners that you like. So be it. 

And it is good to hear from different perspectives, particularly juxtaposing oil and energy prices (and taxes and government tinkering and hedge fund interventions and paid serial bashers and trolls and bankster shenanigans) when we try to find good miners to invest in. It's hard. So much misinformation and manipulation on top of any due diligence that might be undertaken on the business fundamentals. That, and charts lie, statistics lie and yet we all are, to varying degrees, adhered to them. With gold and silver bullion being "managed" as they are for so long way below true value in a free market, it's not difficult to see (in addition to energy and other overhead items et al) why the miners are in the crapper.

But from there you seem to be playing the "I'm not a miner-basher" card. Was it something I said? If so, you should read my comment again. And as far as the very large wet blanket you've thrown over (alongside, in the midst of) the entire subject of mining share optimism with "delusional", "shallow", "very few have a clue" and so on... what's up with that? 

We all question each other, but not out of mistrust per se. Hopefully we do it with a civil tone. My comments/questions directed to you were made with the intention of simply finding out more about what miners you might like. The reason I wanted to know is because you have posted numerous negative comments on miners. A lot. It's like we see a daily, "don't buy mining shares" and "here, look! Another miner in the tank". That's all. No stuff.

I for one, get the point about energy costs. I also get that many mining CEO's are seemingly not capable of ridding themselves of naked shorts, engaging their attorneys, reporting this fraud to the SEC, and raising dividends. But I also understand that no single miner (or any small group of miners) offer a large enough sample size to toss all of the same numbers around and call it a global trend. With all of the illegal shorting and due to gold and silver being held under, it is no doubt that the mining sector is struggling. 

Now, while many are living on hopium and illusions of all miners to the moon (which is no doubt true on many forums on the web - much, much less so on this seasoned blog), what would that have to do with the little conversation here? Do you intend that anyone thinking that miners (not all miners obviously) have, as a sector, bottomed and will, once the chains come off with higher bullion prices and aforementioned feet off the throat of mining companies, rise to new highs... as delusional?

From all I've read and heard, and yes, some from a handful of the folks that appear on KWN, I'm betting that mining shares will once again have their day. And I'm hoping that day is near. Maybe I'm delusional. Certainly I'm hopeful. We'll soon find out.

Again, if you 'bowed up' because of my comments and questions, then I'll ask respectfully that you read my words again. Let me know the miners, if any, you might like. Wishing many hat tips to you from your band of loyal followers and such. Have a great day and thanks again for the reply earlier. 

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