Historically Low Gold OI Levels

My thoughts also, but doesn't it seem sort of, well, "early" for there to be a collapse in the paper trade @ COMEX?  I agree the end game will leave the dealers standing around the crap tables at the casino with no customers to fleece, but I'd expect the exit of the willing masses to be somehow .... noiser.

Is anyone starting to notice that we get a commodity brokerage firm implosion whenever there is a large delivery month in Gold and/or Silver?



October 2011 Gold - MF Global



July 2012 Silver - Peregrine Financial Group



August 2012 Gold - Knight Capital



Just sayin...

PEACE

Obama deserves his GWB-after-911 moment too. Total whores who exploit tragedy and suffering for gain...

"the lowest total OI since The Great Financial Collapse of Autumn 2008"

So the charts look similar, the OI is similar and financial firms are failing left, right and center... Hello, 2008, how have you been? 

A lot of the goldbugs ALSO think that this time it will be different and that a deflation in asset prices will actually see a rise in PM prices. Well...it won't!

King World News has been cheerleading the goldbugs for nearly half a year now, with a continuous hype about "an imminent explosion in prices" and all of this is predicted by "veterans" and "legendary traders," narrated by a guy who sounds like he smoked half the year's production of Colombia's finest grass. Riiiight.....

I'm long gold/silver, but at the moment I have lot's of cash stuffed away in a private vault. I'll buy more PM's when they get thrown out with everything else when the stock markets take a nosedive.

I've been 'buying the dips" for years now, and I've NEVER seen a shortage or a lack of supply! Not today, not last year during the silver spike to $49,-, not during last year's gold spike to $1900,- and not during the major sell off in 2008.

Oh, but wait? Lemme guess: this time it's different right?

Bullion banks shedding shorts ahead of price explosion, Turd Ferguson says

Or has the number of shills, trolls and disinfo spewers gone up around here lately?

Could be this time is different, but if not, that point in time will arrive.  Better to be a year early than a minute late.

Well, yes and no. I don't see the reason to rush into PM's, instead steadily accumulate them and take advantage of the weak handed longs that sell their PM's at the first sign of trouble.

For months we've been hearing that 'some sort of system meltdown is imminent,' and although I'm definitely not denying that there are major systemic problems, I doubt that an all out collapse is in the cards.

I live in Berlin Germany and I recently watches a documentary on German TV about the first couple of weeks in May 1945 of life in Berlin after the surrender of Nazi Germany. This comes closest to a systemic collapse as one can think; the city has been reduced to a pile of rubble, no food supply, a currency that has collapsed, no infrastructure, NOTHING! Not even Gold or PM's weren't going to help you in those days, the best 'currencies' were food, cigarettes, fuel clothes etc. Cigarettes, vegetables, potatoes or a couple of kilos of meat would have probably bought you a shedload of Gold in those days!

A similar, but not as dramatic,  scenario unfolded in the early 1990's in the Soviet Union when communism collapsed.

Another interesting example is the unification of East and West Germany and the controlled systemic collapse of DDR.  In that case it actually paid off to keep your (relatively worthless) East German Marks in your bank account, as they were swapped 1:1 for the strong Deutsch Mark. Could such a controlled collapse happen again when Germany perhaps decides to leave the Euro and introduces a New Deutsch Mark? How will PM's fare in such a scenario?

There s a lotta ins, lotta outs, lotta what-have-you's (to quote The Big Lebowski) and PM's are not always the answer.

The reason why I like PM's is because they are a long term and portable store of wealth. Just like a Jew living in Germany in the 1930's, holding PM's allows you to leave/escape a political and economic system and start somewhere new, either way before, or a few months after a systemic collapse.

Fulgurite:

That is totally incorrect.  LAST TIME was different.  2008-9 saw some deflation and a crash in gold and silver.  However, in the past, 100% of deflationary phenomena have been in terms of gold, when on a true gold standard, and the price of gold has RISEN in the market when gold was not exchangeable at the Treasury window or at banks.  2008-9 was a very short term move, as we have seen.  Sell your silver now, and you might not be able to get it back.

Also, bullshit you didn't see a shortage in 2008.  LCSs everywhere were completely out, and all the online retailers had huge delays.  I had to wait THREE MONTHS to get delivery on the big order I placed after the crash.  Not only that, but I had to pay a 50% premium over spot!  Ever since that time, premiums have become a way of life.  prior to 2008, you paid maybe 50 cents over spot for a 1oz round, where today you are paying at least three dollars.  You used to be able to get junk silver for well UNDER spot.  I haven't been able to find it without a premium for a couple of years now, and was damn lucky to get it without premium when I did.

I'm just a simple stacker who also has pretty good handle on basic economics.  Perhaps I'm just thick, but everything I've read--haven't been to KWN for months--says silver is being consumed faster than it is being produced.  Heck, even the USGS says silver will be the first element to go extinct.  It doesn't matter if it goes to a $1.50 in the sort term.  Until someone comes up with some new engineered material that beats silver's electrical conductivity, heat transmission and reflective properties--at a price comparable to silver--silver is going up.  If that makes me a permabull or a cheerleader so be it.

I don't pay a lot of attention to the trader talk because it is not relevant to me except as an interesting sideshow.  

I’m not too bright when it comes to technical analysis – which is why I come here for my advice from Turd and the Turdites.  I admit I did not thoroughly read every post so I’m sorry if someone already mentioned this.  Just a thought – is it possible that this lengthy stretch of gold and silver trading in a tight range and basically going nowhere for months has frustrated many small speculators to the point that they are out of the market waiting for a trend… and TPTB know this and the insiders – banks, funds, etc – are going to jump in all at once and position themselves Long at these lows?  The little guys will miss the boat initially, and possibly prompt margin hikes will prevent some from getting onboard.

I’m still thinking that a breakout can only be up from here, and the atmosphere seems like this sideways trading is coming to an end soon.

I suppose another possibility is that TPTB will keep the small speculators out by making it look like gold and silver are going nowhere… but slowly inch the price up a few dollars/cents at a time. 

Mostly wishful thinking, I admit.

I bet it thoroughly irritates TPTB that people like us will be fine when they bring down the currency.

Hmm...yeah right!

10 year at 1.63%, yields were just under 1.4% a few weeks ago.

Brent oil now over $111, this is before any major QE, what happens after the ECB and Fed crank it up?

YOU implied that I am currently paying a 50% premium, when I said I paid a 50% premium in 2008.  You keep talking about 2011 and other times when the time in question is 2008.

Keep this up and I will put you on my ignore list.