and I think this is the most likely path for next week 
but WTFDIKnow? please nobody trade from anything I post, I'll tell you when I have cracked it reliably, as yet I have most definitely NOT :)
..have a good weekend everyone.
Pailin's Trading Corner
August 4, 2012 - 7:29am
#26062
Euro
August 4, 2012 - 8:59am
#26063
thats helpful...
@rtabit : I know 20-30 pips is a wide SL , but I havent used any up
til now - just exiting on fresh chart data. I have gone from 2-3 trades
a day to 18 yesterday...far too many . Really 1 or 2 excellent entry positions
better to pursue than 5 good ones. I am too prewired to go against the trend.
I've taken stupid long trades again a very bearish hourly chart - just because
the 5min gets waaay oversold. I'd like a secondary indicator that corroborated
RSI, but not sure which one. Will look a bit closer at some of the moving average options.
@Kevsta : I totally agree about WTI and Euro looking overbought. Might
even look at shorting Euro in Asian trade if it starts trending down. No
logic behind these 2 consecutive days of ridiculous strong Euro, and yes,
gold did look .....restrained.
Although I tend to avoid trading around big news events , GBP got caught
up in Thursdays events , and I caught the big reversal just after Draghi let
out the bad news. That was easily 'trade of the week' for me. I think that on
'big news days' the trick is to keep an open mind, try to pick up the trend and
go with it (usually starts 6 hours or so before meeting schedule), then be ready
to reverse course somewhere during the meeting if it disappoints. At the moment
I'm experimenting with all the major currency pairs, but will narrow this down to
3 or 4, to supplement gold and silver, which dont give enough buy/sell signals to
trade alone imo. Also am ok with some wti trades but extra caution with that baby !
August 4, 2012 - 9:48am
#26064
On a non silver note, why
On a non silver note, why have you all convicted this man already?
This man's chance of a fair trial is zero and another lone nut story wrapped up.
On a silver note, the stock market I am anticipating will fall again soon and I think I will get an opportunity to buy back into silver around that 26 dollar or sub 25 dollar area as a result. In the meantime around 28, is a sell signal to me, but I could be wrong.
August 4, 2012 - 10:08am
#26065
Looks to me like everything
Looks to me like everything is being well orchestrated as usual. We big "events" this week that could have crushed the metals and driven the dollar to the moon. Stocks holding their own quite well, despite a very degenerate economic picture.
Well its August. I would say get ready for metals to continue their climb, although as usual don't get too excited, it has to be well controlled. Stocks are ready to make their show for the grand gala in November. I say make your money now, in 3 months I think the show will be over.
N.B. Nugt processed approx. 19 million shares Thursday, about 8- 10 times its usual amount. The tape is speaking imo only.
August 4, 2012 - 11:23am
#26066
No conviction here. Just
No conviction here. Just stating with my interpretation of course what has been reported. This is why I say we need more facts and I guess it will take about a year perhaps to get it all. Yes, he deserves a fair trial like everyone else.
August 4, 2012 - 12:12pm
#26067
Pain Street Update (Public
Pain Street Update (Public Service Announcement):
1) Some happy fool from MN keeps posting about the incredibly good ag yields they're experiencing. Guess the high corn and bean prices are a mass delusion...
2) Big "discussion" on the silver content of Tomahawk missiles (!?!)--the government is supposedly shooting off as many as possible to "use up" all the silver...
3) Reading Ivar, their chief technician, is like experiencing Avi Gilburt flying on some circa '71 Windowpane...Art Linkletter rolling over in his grave...
August 4, 2012 - 12:41pm
#26068
@daveyboy
I agree that the silver chart looks precarious,
but using 100 day and 200 day sma's, silver
is sitting above these lines. These , I believe,
are the indicators bank traders etc use to
confirm bullishness, and indictes that
'professional' money could be looking to get
long...(please correct me if i'm wrong ...)
August 4, 2012 - 1:46pm
#26069
http://seekingalpha.com/artic
http://seekingalpha.com/article/780381-broad-stock-market-outlook-remain...
Comment by PompanoFrog is esp. important.
August 5, 2012 - 3:39am
#26070
@Rico,
I come by here at
@Rico,
I come by here at times to get a view on how things are going and take the best bits of advice I see here. You are certainly right to comment on the likes of Avi and Ivars work as I agree their predictions have not been that precise of late, I will say that Avi pulled me out of a few thousand ounces of silver when it was at $41! I applaud any of these people for having the balls to make a prediction based on their own methods but predicting anything in a heavily manipulated market is not going to be accurate. Trading in a heavily manipulated market has caught out many longs and should only be left to the brave few who flip trades in short time.
However, I will say along with Turd and the many other metals sites and so called experts Morgan / Malone / Turk / Sprott to name but a few, that the fundamental cause of the 2008 crash has not changed and has only become worse, much worse. No one knows when the eye of the storm will pass and the turbulence of the returning storm will come exactly, but I value all predictions and suggestions to increase my own case of DYODD and I stack accordingly. Turds calls on the short coverings, COT reports and massive things to come in the metals gives me reason to increase my readiness for this possible move. Avi and Ivars both also have called for this coming move, Ivars said he thinks his charts are 2 months out and Avi called for the Bull to be let loose a couple on months ago. Only that famous saying of time will tell will let us know.
Prices might go down, don't forget they might also go up. Trade accordingly of course but, there are many people with much more knowledge than I who are saying now is a good time to buy in when prices are on sale. It's crazy how the sheeple only jump on the train once it has left the station. There are drums being beaten across the valleys and something appears to be warming up for a battle and for me it is time to start to replenish my stock and keep an eye on intelligence from the troops and see how things will play out.
Regards to all
Abe
August 5, 2012 - 7:14am
#26071
Equities
http://seekingalpha.com/article/780381-broad-stock-market-outlook-remain...
Comment by PompanoFrog is esp. important.
I get that markets can continue to run up when they should be going down for much longer than most can imagine, however IMO US equities have to have that Wile Coyote moment somepoint soon. Good article on ZH yesterday regarding the markets continual front-running of potential aid, thereby ensuring it wont happen.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/order-be-saved-spain-and-italy-must-first-be-destroyed
as I said yesterday, Im not comfortable shorting gold or silver from the top of their trading ranges because both can violently blow out on fundamentals or hot money flows at any point, but I feel much more confident shorting this at the top of this range, because IMO it belongs a minimum 2000 points lower based on non-QE fundamentals
decent divergence in play on the 4hr, check. stupid headfake short-covering rally on Euro driving everything up? check.
I'm not just hating on the Dow, I think there's a fundamental reversion due here
so unless we think Europe is solved and the Euro is going to trend upwards not downwards from here (and I dont) the probability is weighted towards a reality moment in US stocks. is everybody aware that some European stock markets have been down lower than their worst crisis lows of 08/09 these last few weeks?
With the Dow basically loitering around just under previous highs on the expectation of QE, I wonder how much more upside there actually is there, even if they do announce it? If gold was loitering just under the top of it's previous all time highs, instead of banging along support at the bottom of it's range, I'd be less confident in Dow direction, but it looks to me that over the intermediate term, the only realistic way is down
I will be looking for likely entries here this week if setups appear. if I try and get in on every decent looking rollover and down, one day I might just catch the big one. 
or most likely get stopped out and then watch it run without me lol
August 5, 2012 - 7:33am
#26072
nice
I will be looking for likely entries here this week if setups appear. if I try and get in on every decent looking rollover and down, one day I might just catch the big one.
or most likely get stopped out and then watch it run without me lol
Ha ha... Gotta laugh at that one! :)
@Abe - thanks for stopping by, always appreciate your input.
August 5, 2012 - 7:40am
#26073
sixdollarsilver wrote:
kevsta
I will be looking for likely entries here this week if setups appear. if I try and get in on every decent looking rollover and down, one day I might just catch the big one.
or most likely get stopped out and then watch it run without me lol
Ha ha... Gotta laugh at that one! :)
if I didn't laugh I'd have to cry, the amount of times this has happened :)
trend software also agrees with me, this is right more often than it's wrong, but if we pushed up to a new high it just moves the bloody arrow to the new high so can only be used in conjunction with other strategies.
August 5, 2012 - 9:04am
#26074
@Abe,
Thanks for your
@Abe,
Thanks for your comments. I don't disagree--at some point, prices will go up. That's the beauty of commodities, they never go to zero. I also want to make it clear that I believe that PM prices are manipulated--just like all other markets.
There is nothing intrinsically magical about PMs. God did not look down upon his creation, and pronounce them the proper repository for the wealth of the righteous, and declare all others an abomination.
After an adult lifetime in the markets, I have found that every dog has its day. Right now, for example, it's the grains. In Q1 of 2011, it was silver. Gold has had an incredible run--is it such a crazy thought that it might, finally, have a down year?
In trading/investing, all true believers get burned--every time, without exception. Bubbles pop, things fall apart. There is also an endless supply of frauds and grifters, eager to enrich themselves on the money of the naive. It is infinitely easier to get rich selling advice to the gullible than to actually put your own hard-come-by wealth on the line and make it pay, to extract profit from the chaos on your wits and your nerve.
I'm glad you sold your silver at $41. That's a winning trade. May you have many more. It would be a shame to attribute that good fortune to anyone but yourself, especially an opportunistic clown like Avi Gilburt who doesn't give a damn whether you live or die, so long as you pay your subscription first.
Anyhoo, there's another game starting in nine hours' time, so good luck to you, and GLTA.
August 5, 2012 - 9:27am
#26075
SW and Rico are the detox
SW and Rico are the detox after the addiction of main street, sprott and co or perhaps they are agents working for the EE :)
August 5, 2012 - 9:32am
#26076
Rico wrote:
@Abe,
Thanks for
@Abe,
Thanks for your comments. I don't disagree--at some point, prices will go up. That's the beauty of commodities, they never go to zero. I also want to make it clear that I believe that PM prices are manipulated--just like all other markets.
There is nothing intrinsically magical about PMs. God did not look down upon his creation, and pronounce them the proper repository for the wealth of the righteous, and declare all others an abomination.
After an adult lifetime in the markets, I have found that every dog has its day. Right now, for example, it's the grains. In Q1 of 2011, it was silver. Gold has had an incredible run--is it such a crazy thought that it might, finally, have a down year?
In trading/investing, all true believers get burned--every time, without exception. Bubbles pop, things fall apart. There is also an endless supply of frauds and grifters, eager to enrich themselves on the money of the naive. It is infinitely easier to get rich selling advice to the gullible than to actually put your own hard-come-by wealth on the line and make it pay, to extract profit from the chaos on your wits and your nerve.
I'm glad you sold your silver at $41. That's a winning trade. May you have many more. It would be a shame to attribute that good fortune to anyone but yourself, especially an opportunistic clown like Avi Gilburt who doesn't give a damn whether you live or die, so long as you pay your subscription first.
Anyhoo, there's another game starting in nine hours' time, so good luck to you, and GLTA.
always enjoy your posts Rico, what happened to the trend thread?
and re God not pronouncing PMs the correct repository, I agree, however I think nature (and especially so the human kind) may have, after all if it's the last resort and definitely won't be vaporizing in a tsunami of 1s and 0's with everything else in the paper ponzi in a meltdown, that is going to become the attractive option at some point IMO
humans always graduate towards gold and silver as money across centuries and regimes for very specific reasons, and in the great cycle, the original money may very well one day become the last (credible) money standing again. stranger things have happened. not this week or next though lol.
in the meantime whatever the price does this year, I am much more comfortable with my worth represented in Oz, than Euros Dollars or GBP going forwards, and the gains over having it in a bank account these last few years will more than offset a down year or 2 before the trend resumes.
long and strong, sitting tight, hoping I'm right :) FU Bernanke Draghi and co.
August 5, 2012 - 11:55am
#26077
Very good comments by
Very good comments by everyone here. Much appreciate it. Unlike Rico and many others here I have not been a long time trader. My angle has been from the start about understanding this complex devil called the market. Macro and micro factors are interwoven continuously. The masters wield control of the macro factors, the short term determinants are left to technology, interpretation of releases, pronouncements of biblical scope, etc.
As in most analytical matters one needs to have a good working model of the bigger picture. At this critical historical juncture economic war between US and China rules the day. ME war remains the trump card for the US. Obama will be reelected; Romney has been mediocre entertainment.
China has been hoarding gold and silver at lightening speed all the while developing a plethora of mines, both known and unknown. Central banks are trying to keep pace.
Yes, there has been an accelerating disinterest in miners and metals and as a short term decision has been to the advantage of the trader.
The momentum leading up to an event that will potentially crystallize global dominance is so encompassing that it appears to have created a quasi indifference, "la belle indifference" as French neurologists so famously coined at the end of the 19th century.
Trading requires bifocal lenses. Undue attention to one will compromise the other.
August 5, 2012 - 12:33pm
#26078
So Redwood, you see this as a
So Redwood, you see this as a run up in prices until November, a short term heavy fall which then signals QE3?
What if QE3 never comes? why does it need to come? there is no shortage of liquidity.
Denninger recently predicted (after his admittedly disastrous prediction of 3000 in the dow by now) that the stock market will go into a decade long decline, no collapse, just a prolonged slow incremental slide.
I would have to say that personally I concur with that prediction, or at least I think there is a strong likelihood of such.
August 5, 2012 - 12:46pm
#26079
Daveyboy
Yes, I also agree with Denninger and others. The market I believe is in a steady decline, some forecast till around 2020. As we all know this market has been supported with nothing but hot air. But they will keep doing that until November. They cannot risk doing otherwise. I expect quite a decline following.
However I do not include the metals in that picture. The miners go by the way of the equities, so I expect the same for them. That is why having physical is very important right now.
I also agree that QE3 won't come. It's been used as a carrot to sustain the market. It will be tossed once it is no longer of use.
There are times when an economics degree would help. So this is an assembly of ideas that I have surmised. But it is unfolding as I have expected. The only surprise for me is that I would have expected better performance by the miners this year, not as great as last 2 years, but better. I do think though that we are about to see a surge in those very soon. Just mo.
P.S. I just received an email by Celente who says he expects a market crash this year. This man whatever you may think of him is a big picture man and his forecasts have been impressive. We are always disappointed when someone who has garnered credibility fails to predict in a timely fashion. These people are giving probabilites, not certainties which is what everyone wants, and if people like Celente, Avi, Ivar, Sinclair have missed the mark in time, but not in direction, I would say they are doing stellar work. It just can't be used for short term trades.
August 5, 2012 - 3:15pm
#26080
gold bugs are unique creatures...
Because they lust over their condemning of the printing
presses....the same presses whose regular usage is the
principal driver of their beloved gold price... No printing
clearly equals stagnating gold price ...equals unhappy bugs.
I'm personally unhappy because of all the time I've spent
studying anticlinal folds, impermeable shear zones etc etc
which has been dead knowledge for 18 months during the
near death experience in the ventures market. Hence I now
find myself in forex/traders kindergarten...but I'll slowly
get there....Meanwhile QE is inevitable in Euroland to prevent
international confrontation imo and inevitable in the US to
keep the State coffers 'solvent'. Although I agree a crash in
2013 looks likely, what we all think likely will never come
about, so more post election qe leading to possible economic
'improvement' in 2013 is what no-one is predicting imo.
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PMs to the moon? All it takes is one 'respected' mainstream equities guy saying he's out of performance and into protection. Everything is dead, I'm out. Closing his fund, returning cash, and going all to physical bars. It would have to be a very well-reasoned individual though, somebody they couldn't pin nutty on. And that's assuming anybody would let the message out to begin with.
Otherwise it's probably a slow grind up with explosive moments of strength and weakness. Like a time lapse death of a sun.
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Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell