Pailin's Trading Corner

Yes, I know, but "English" is a far more noble English than what is used in North America, hence it's another language.

Thanks, Art!

I see..   so you were translating for me what the Americans were going to think it meant? 

you are correct, it  is a different language.. hopefully you can tell I have the real stuff 

with asset prices rallying and stocks high there is little to support any mention of QE. Therefore this all is a' buy the rumor sell the news event'. This is the probability

totally feels that way, seems somehow just too easy for the Bernank to just go "Oh go on then" and gold head off to the races. 

Am short Dow from 13079, from the pullback to the 21/50 crossover, will take half off at S1 if we get there and stop to breakeven.

50 or 100 points is one thing, but would so love to catch one of these 1500 point swoons one day :)

7-30-12

From his perspective, given the number of important meetings taking place in September, it would seem that Draghi would probably like to wait to do something bold. On the other hand, as I noted, I'm not sure markets are going to grant him that time unless he does a pretty good job of stringing them along at this week's meeting. The bottom line is that there is a lot of potential to move markets in both directions. Given computer-driven trading and holiday schedules, the chance of head fakes and whipsaws is also quite large.

If you take a step back, the important fact is that the Fed is getting close to doing something big again, and the ECB is getting closer to emulating the Fed. That means that we might be approaching a shift in the psychological thought process away from deflation and toward inflation. That will be aided and abetted by higher food costs prospectively, and maybe for once instead of ignoring them, folks will realize it is not just the price of food that has been going steadily higher, it is the price of many things, ex homes.

If we finally get to the inflection point where the focus of fear turns from deflation to inflation, the investment world will be turned upside down. But of course that is not today's business.

The SToch in Spy for the last 4 peaks into the high range have signaled sell. We are now just entering that high zone again. Usually its not that simple but who knows? Declining momentum on the MACD Histogram on each high in this rising channel shows negative divergence since mid-June. We have much less buying momentum now yet price of Spy is considerably higher.

I smell a rat. Summer trading. Light volume. Tricky and not true. The Gnome may be carbo-loading on baked beans, roughage, bran and jalapenos to induce evacuation. Steve Liesman, Groom of the Stool, will be standing in wait, prepared as always beneath the trap door, full of brim and the deepest reverence....

Dow 12k hats out again on the nightshift. 

half out at 13019 for 60 pts and stop at breakeven on second tranche, looking good so far.

must not sabotage trade in any way must not sabotage trade in any way lol

edit, its not night there is it? its been a long day here

If the Fed even hints at QE, ag commodities, energy, and the PMs will go ballistic tomorrow.  Does that sound to you like the outcome the Fed is trying to achieve?  I didn't think so.

Trade accordingly.