Cranberries, heard of them, and that tune is somewhat familiar. British? Great piece too.
Pailin's Trading Corner
Redwood. I cant always choose the right stocks,
but ok with music most of the time. I was actually
engaged to a girl in Montreal while working in New York ;
I think about those times a lot : )
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cant quite decide if thats John Lennon in that Booker T vid ?
the dollar is now looking bearish or at least sideways for a bit... a flag pattern which is a continuation pattern looks like it is forming. All of the indicators are bearish and there is bearish divergence. It could break soon...
Vibrant, very French with great food and a certain joie de vivre that is somewhat lacking in English Canada. Apologies to all my non French compatriots. Booker T. Talk about memories.
Ok. Back to the metals.
This constant strong action up is not usual for gold and silver. Something is up.
I can't remember so many constant days of confident upwards movement.
Maybe the market gets the big let down from Bum Burnache, but maybe not.
Silver is a small step away from break up and out of it's very long term wedge. Mix that with the most bullish commercial net position since 2001, and I'm thinking that maybe this is really it.
Another reason I think this must be it, is that Leeb, Hathaway and Embry are all speaking in hyperbole on KWN -- when was the last time they were unanimous about such a thing? (I mean besides every day of the last countless years.)
Joking aside, it seems that something may seriously be brewing. On the other hand, I won't be shocked by a crash on Wednesday.
It really isn't that odd to think gold is going up since Aug. is gold month. Until I looked at the charts above, it again confirmed for me that there is an underlying mechanism not privy to us that is perpetually at play. It is not incompatible with manipulation because manipulation is part of the cyclicity of the market. It has its own rhythm and events like FOMC or the ECB, while exerting their own effect, are eventually woven into a more predetermined pattern imo. Its equivalent on a smaller scale to watching out for Borg times. They are part of the rhythmicity of the daily pattern.
Good question regarding grains going forward into 2013. I think we need to get a better handle on the size of this year's crop to answer that. Just guesses at this time. Pro Farmer does their tour in a couple of weeks. USDA report on 8/10 will be based on field surveys. If crop size is as small as some groups are saying these past few days, then even with reduced demand, we are in trouble, and prices need to continue higher to slow demand. I see a need to maintain this high corn price through the summer of 2013, because if the price drops very much, it will just kick in more demand that we cannot handle.
Several groups are petitioning the EPA to waive the renewable fuel mandate, and if they do, would put a lid on corn prices. But this would cause other shortages. The DDGs that would have to be replaced if ethanol production was scaled back are huge. Not sure where we would get the soymeal or other protein to replace the DDGs as we will be running on fumes with our soybean supply. So this is not a total solution.
I will also be watching planting progress this fall for South American soybeans. Some are expecting a 20% increase in acres. (watch your long positions here) If their crop starts off good, this would allow the US to plant huge corn acres again. The current corn to bean price ratio for 2013 favors corn right now. Hopefully SA has a good bean crop. The US will probably have to import beans next summer to make it to harvest as we are expecting a huge US export program this fall and winter. The SA harvest hits the market in March-April of 2013. China purchases will also be key, I think they will buy soybeans regardless of price. They have too many people to feed.
I'm just rambling here, not really answering your question. 2013 will be another volatile year in the grains. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Should give us all plenty of trading opportunities.
OK. I finally got around to doing this. It just seems like it is important.
Here's my COT graph for silver. Sorry it is not very clear. I can't seem to figure out how to compress and resize and upload a clear picture. But I can make my point.
The important things about the graph are:
1) Silver is in a wedge and there is not much room left before it breaks up or down. The rising trend line dates back to 2008 while the falling trend dates back to our favorite Sunday night back in May 2011. Both trend lines have been tested, but not violated, which is going to end within a week or two at the most.
2) The commercial position in the COT is very bullish. Not since 2001 has the net commercial position been so high. (This is the middle part of the chart with shades of red and green.)
The problem with COT analysis is that it is not very precise. This is especially true about timing. It is difficult at best to use the COT to time the market -- I don't even try anymore.
But the great thing about this wedge pattern is that there is no time left! It will almost certainly either break up or down. And with this bullish COT, I do not expect it to break down. (Or rather, break down and stay down.)
We definitely could get a drop in price which would certainly be accompanied by a rising (more bullish) commercial net position. This is definitely possible -- especially with the FOMC on Wednesday.
I'm actually not sure what is going to happen. I have my physical stash, but I don't hold trades for more than a day anymore -- so I'm not planning on trading this.
If we do get a drop, it should be a great buying opportunity. (No guarantees!)
The data, if charted in the frequency domain (instead of the traditional time domain) should reveal several prominent periodicities, i.e. spikes on the graph corresponding to variation that happens on short-term (high frequency) and long-term (low frequency) repeating patterns. The highest amplitude spikes account for the largest variations in the data set. Consequently, the highest amplitude spikes are the most predictable and indicate when one can make the highest probability bets as the pattern repeats in future. If only I weren't so lazy...a graph is long overdue.
since Jan, whenever silver hit the daily R3, it would get crushed within a few days - Pailin brought this to our attention numerous times. The interesting thing about silver's climb the past few days - the daily R3 has not been touched. Keep an eye on that.
First push through 28.50 I lighten up but do not come completely out. Then, on the ensuing pullback to 27.70 area, I reload.
I don't see any serious intervention until we approach 30. Just take the FOMC in stride and use it to your advantage.
what happens if we never get QE3? Not many are calling for it... We like it because we see rising metal prices. Investors like it because the stock market gets boosted. However, Bernanke has to know how dangerous politically and for the overall economy it will be. So I wonder what will happen if it doesnt happen? A deflationary depression and a decline in metal prices?
IMO, the QE question is not if but is it enough. Deflation; I think that is not going to be a problem for the pms with or without QE in whatever form.
Ben will not allow deflation and food prices will be rising regardless.
The fear in the pms is the ever present intervention raids. History shows were and when they are mostly to occur. Try to be in a position to use them to your advantage rather than be pillaged by them. It is hard because the manipulators are playing with a marked deck. But it is not impossible. PM prices are headed higher over the long term regardless of interventions.
PM prices are headed higher over the long term regardless of interventions.
Hi all. ..so its time to stop lurking and join in, I've been around since the previous site on and off, but lurking here (this thread) quite a lot, so I do feel like I know you all already. :)
I'm an amateur day and swing trader, past beginner now I suppose (9 months) but only a relatively small account until I'm confident I can be consistently profitable.
Fx - I trade EURUSD & Cable primarily, futures, mainly gold, oil (Brent & WTI) and the E-minis and although I do dabble in Silver when it comes alive. I also have a core of physical 65/35 Au/Ag since 2009.
so its probably a good time to thank everyone who's contributed here thus far for everything helpful I've ever read, and Pailin for taking the time to start and keep up with such a useful ongoing resource.
..greatly looking forward to intercourse with you all ; )
Welcome aboard kevsta. As a bilingual person myself I accept your generous offer to have "intercourse". But the literal translation would mean "let's all fuck".
lol. I'm English and aware of the implications to potty minds :) actually, it just means
[in-ter-kawrs, -kohrs] Show IPA
unless you add "sexual" to the front of it.. ;)