Some Intriguing Charts
Not much to add this morning but I wanted to pass along these charts. It's not much but it's a start!
On the previous post, I pointed out that both gold and silver were very close to breaking out of "pennant" formations on their daily charts. With today's action, they have! Now, again, take this for what it's worth:
- These are simply formations at the base of the long-term pattern.
- The primary ranges are still intact, namely 27-29 in silver and 1535-1635 in gold.
- However, these initial breakouts are a positive development and may be the initial signal that he next move higher has begun. Watch closely to see if the breakouts can be maintained.
And I thought I would give you this chart of crude, as well. How many times have you read me stating that "what was resistance becomes support and vice versa"? Well, the crude oil chart shows this about as clearly as possible. Recall that for the past few weeks, I was telling you that $88 and then $90 would be critical levels for crude to pass IF it was going to sustain a rally. Well, take a look at the chart below. The next target for crude is to exceed last week's highs. IF it can do so, $100 will be clearly within its sights.
As I type, gold is 1616 and silver is 27.65. Not too shabby, especially considering that it's August gold option expiration day. Let's see if we can hold these gains for the rest of the day and then sit back and see what tomorrow brings.
Have a great day!
TF
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Comments
Silver performance today
First comment on TF Metals Report for me ! Hello Turds , hope you are all well and that we will soon be having the explosion in price !
Silver / Gold Production ratio
I was curious about the ratio of the metals actually mined, so I plotted the following chart based on production statistics from the U.S. Geological Survey. Turns out that historically in terms of production, between about 6 and about 15 times more silver is mined then gold. Looking at the relative abundance of silver and gold in the Earth's crust (source: wikipedia) you get a ratio of about 18,5 times more silver than gold, which jives somewhat with the production ratio ... at least it's not an order of magnitude off.
Drought!
Whatever unknown force (el nino?) is causing this drought (and there is a cause...) it has not peaked yet. Remember the bell curve theory? That is the model this weather pattern will follow. This is not stockcharting like the silver peak of May 1, 2011, where we spike up and then go off the waterfall. It has become worse each week. At the peak, we will see 2-3 weeks of equal drought, then the chart will start getting better. We have not peaked yet. And time is against the crops. We needed to see improvement this week and it is not there yet. The soybeans are still at risk. Corn is toast (122 bu per acre instead of 200) and could fall a bit further. The drought is serious and could not come at a more inopportune moment, as far as the overall economy goes.
And there may be some chart painting and manipulation in the grains in spite of the drought. Can anyone confirm my suspicion?
murphy, tf, explosions, and the cftc
gata is the bomb. they were anti-bankster when being anti-bankster wasn't cool. (if there ever was such a time...)
i will bet bill murphy and tf have the same source regarding the august (or summer in tf's case) outbreak in the pm's. notice bill wouldn't divulge his source either. maybe bill is tf's source, i don't know. but murphy isn't usually this adamantly straight forward so there may be something to all this.
as far as what bill said about the cftc supposedly having the goods on the jpm manipulation part: i will believe it when i see it. (though there is a scenario in which i do see this happening...)
IF it looks to the cftc that the cat is peeking its whole head and half its body out of the manipulation scandal bag and IF goldman sachs smells enough blood in the water from a flailing jpm who is just about to go down for the third time - maybe just maybe they try taking her down to davey jones' locker. as most know gary gensler is another goldmanite turned "regulator". if he sees his own junk on the chopping block and facing possible jail time for gross negligence and/or abetting fraud he will most likely do whatever it takes to keep his lily white out of the pokey. by offering the burnt offering of jpm to the open jaws of goldman so much the better for them not to mention the future prospects of his own colon.
* for the life of me i cannot foresee this event happening as soon as even the end of august (if it does at all). the mullet has been saying that the investigation would be over by year's end but who knows.
@ brad_pitts_bett & Mr. Romney
It may not really matter if Mr. Romney withdraws before the convention. Can we handle a different NW VIEW ? Are we prepared for another four years of Mr. Obama?? (Better get ready). Mr. Romney is just to clean cut to be president. He has a great family, loving wife of his youth, success in America without corruption and he just does not fit the current lifestyles of America. How will he attract the open support of Ellen Degeneres, Tom Cruise, Anderson Cooper, Barney & Harry, Oprah, Jane Fonda, The N.O.W. gang, The Black Caucus, the gay right agenda, and the millions on entitlement programs who may be on a permanent vacation from work??
We have a representative democracy: (A form of government where the powers of the sovereignty are delegated to a body of people, elected from time to time, who exercise them for the benefit of the whole nation.) I scratch my old worn out head and think "how will anyone, like the great moral presidents of the past, ever be elected again in this degenerate culture"? Yes, we think it would be a good time to prepare for the new four year term that is coming upon our land.
The majority are hoping for a return of Mr. Obama, the Muslims and the people of color are also hopeful and some Christians are praying for Mr. Romney. This NW VIEW has been the same for decades. Romans 9:17 says it all- "For the Scripture says to Pharaoh, I (the Lord) have raised you up for this very purpose of displaying My power in dealing with you (America), so that My name may be proclaimed the whole world over." ( my inserts)!!
Yes Mr. Obama represents the "lost culture that America has become" and we will be given the leadership that we deserve but not the one we had hoped for as a nation which was to be "a light unto the world". The French may want their statue back. jmo
Drought
It's so dry, the trees are whistlin' for the dogs...and the catfish are all carryin' canteens!
Locked and Loaded
All geared up for a big silver purchase tomorrow at 12:05 pm EST....followed by a white-water rafting excursion of course. Thanks for all the guidance Turd and Turdville!
@MrGuboci
Since no one else has said it, I will. Welcome.
May your metals know only purity.
May your silver always shine.
As to metal contents of mobile phones ...
I found an interesting document that lists the metal content of a "typical" mobile phone, see link.
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2006/3097/fs2006-3097.pdf
According to this document, a 113 g cell phone typically contains about 0.35 g silver and 0.034 g gold. If you would consider a pile of cell phones to be "ore", this would work out to a grade of about 3100 g / metric ton and 300 g / metric ton, respectively. Pretty good ore, I think.
I believe that recycling (along with cell phone prices) will certainly pick up as the PM prices increase. There are certainly applications for silver where it is diluted to the point where it can't be recycled, but in general, it doesn't look to me like electronics is one of them.
@ Brad Pitt's bro... Goldman pulling a "Godfather" on JPM
Would explain some things. I notice it is not Goldman in the news for a multi-billion dollar trading loss, nor is Goldman the subject of an ongoing Federal probe into price fixing... One must wonder why JPM is? Do they not control the media and Gov as well? The Tatalias and Corleones cooperated... right up until they didn't.
My opinion only: Goldman knows just where JPM is vulnerable, just which levers must be pulled to blow up Blythe's fancy derivatives, and where the bodies are buried. Goldman could force an audit of SLV and all those ounces secretly sold to protect their short and derivative paper positions if they wanted.
So to paraphrase the great Kenny Powers, "Huge banks are like highlanders: There can be only one."
SRSrocco & ColdCorp
I don't dispute the higher mining costs, but it looks like they're holding onto their gold; produced 578k, sold 532k, keeping about 45k ounces in their vaults. I wonder what this says about their expectation of future gold price. It would have been nice to see how much silver they actually sold. They produced 1.5m ounces more and I guess they may be keeping more silver in their vaults too.
Also curious as to insider trading; think the principals are buying here?
I never post, but appreciate all your contributions, both here and other sites.
re: pining's godfather
So to paraphrase the great Kenny Powers, "Huge banks are like highlanders: There can be only one."
yeah, if goldman's micheal corleone does take jpm's fredo out fishing, that would result in one gynormous highlander.
no wonder timmah was mum when asked about sandy weill's new and improved stance concerning tbtf banks.
It may be a bit early to post this for gold
After all, it's not obvious yet.
Hi rtabit
you asked, "Seems to me that some of you guys over here in main street like to think everything new technology related is bad, so I'm thinking maybe one of you could let me know why HFT's are evil or point me to a link. Watch the video, I found it really interesting, but I write code for a living so maybe it's just the programming geekness in me. Thanks."
i'll take a shot at it, since i'm taking a break from dehydrating and canning a bumper crop of tomatoes, (and drinking a beer)...
1) HFT allows front running. this has been proven. so you (little guy) bid, come in under the current ask, trade goes through, none the wiser. except that an HFT firm (big guy) bought in between, sold to you, and skimmed some fraction of a cent. is that OK? would it be OK if you could, to steal a cent from everyone's car ashtray, across the entire US? you would be wildly rich, and no one would notice a thing. No, this is wrong! why? because when everybody thinks its OK to cheat a little, the honest guy ends up getting screwed in a big way. all those nickels and dimes add up. and in a nutshell, that is another reason the United States is going down the crapper.
carry on Turdites
Strike until.....
So, New York's mayor wants police across the country to go on strike until we all give up our guns !
Right ! (he said sarcastically)
Hey Bloomberg, I got one better. How's about every business in the country go on strike until every corrupt politician and Central Bankster is expelled from the country ! (and not allowed to return).
Hey Bloomberg, how's about every business goes on strike until fiat is replaced as gold and silver like the Constitution demands !
(One more time, with feeling !)
Hey Bloomer-butt ! How's about every person in the country carries on their person their own personal firearm for their own personal protection !
(cops ? badges ? We don't need no stinkin' cops with badges !!)
Sorry, guys. Couldn't resist.
Mario's big day
If Mario can goose equities worldwide by lying about the availability of all the money necessary "to protect the Euro", can you imagine what will happen when Bennie and the Jets tell us they are warming up the helicopters? I'd be surprised if the DOW doesn't have a 500 point UP day. Probably won't hurt PMs a bit either. The mental masterbation in play here is truly amazing. Europe is dead broke with no possibility of "earning" or taxing their way out of the debt pit they are in. More debt is the solution? I scoff! But, people believe this crap.
The United States? Another year, another $1.5 trillion(per year) deeper in debt. All the big banks holding their breath, trying not to fart and shit their pants. You know The Bernank is going to QE. What else has to got? NOTHING! Next week? September?
Congress doesn't have the collective spine to pull away the milk bowl. With an election coming, it would be unemployment for many of them. They know it. Nothing will change. This is a worldwide clusterfuck, trying to sustain the unsustainable.
Sorry for the rant. Days like today are just so bizarre it's hard fathom what the hell is really going on. I need a good coin show to help me reboot. Then, ................ a canoe trip.
wax off
Spread The Turd
Off topic, but I was trying to reduce my cell phone bill, which didn't work out, but I ended by saying look up Turd and zerohedge to this 30 year old. Felt good, we need to educate the masses to understand what is going on. They work hard at that age, as I did, and did not even know what Soros was doing when I worked in Europe at that age. Pass it on to the new upcoming generation. Don't tell them what to do, show them how to learn and use knowledge to form the new society. In other words, spread the Turd.
Thanks Turd.
@ Orange ^
I am spreading turds all over everybody
Jim Willie - and"flag waving morons" - - -
Only flag waving morons sporting red white and blue jockey shorts believe the official story, in addition to diehard types who hold scientific evidence in contempt, along with senile veterans well past the octagenarian mark. No disrespect is meant to veterans, who often seem incapable of sorting evidence or even identifying a financial fascist out of uniform. Even the 911 Commissioners admit they were coerced to omit widespread evidence, including testimony from the New York Police Dept captains. They could not voice their objection too loudly, or else lose their jobs and likely pensions too. Whereas in 2003 and 2004 the critics seemed like crackpots, no longer do they seem so wild-eyed and lunatic. Some very well informed people believe the 911 event was actually a bank heist. The odd new twist is the reports that many people at the World Trade Center who were eyewitnesses have died mysterious deaths. Harken back to the Grassy Knoll from that infamous November 1963 event in Dallas. By the 1990 decade, a few dozen people had died from mysterious deaths, many being violent deaths, to the point that no eyewitnesses had survived. A mission accomplished in the sordid history of the United States.http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/07.12/brushfires.html
my response to no hay
I, for one, am freaked out about the situation with grass and alfalfa hay. I just seem to not be able to get rid of my goats. Not because no one wants them, but because I
them. And now I have added a buckling to the mix. I am crazy!!!!!!!!!!!!
So early next week I begin an experiment. I am driving over to a local farmer's field and having my pick up filled with barley. I hope to get a ton of it. It will be fun figuring out how to store it as our silo was destroyed by snow and not replaced.
Then, I hope to sprout the barley and feed the sprouts to my goats this winter. Seriously!
This business of no hay or very expensive hay is really a game changer for farmers. I need a ton per goat, and I have 10 goats. I'm hoping to find it at a reasonable price. The barley is option 2. The fear is that there will be no second cutting alfalfa available. Goats wouldn't eat first cutting hay.
I know I am not the only one around here freaking out, as there are lots of small hobby farmers like myself.
No hay means no animals. If we have a hard winter and not enough hay, animals are slaughtered. Everyone I know who has livestock is feeling very jittery. We love our animals and we want to keep them. But if there is not enough hay, we have no choice. It is better to harvest the animal than to watch it starve to death.
Just another thing to think about as you are preparing accordingly.
Got food stored???????????
Main stages in a bubble
Hi Guys,
I remember back when silver was hitting it´s highs back in 2011 the bubble graph of different phases was mentioned quite a bit.
The question is where are we now? Are we only in the awareness phase right now or is the graph worthless due to manipulation?
Nice...
Chart ^^^
@ Deaglan
This discussion from Trader Dan is probably more relevant, though we never made it to the signal failure stage and the commercials never had to fully cover their shorts. Regardless, the charts contained within sure look familiar.
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/what-is-commercial-signal-failure.html
For anyone still keeping track...
The short FB/long AG spread trade is still kickin ass.
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/fb
Speaking of Trader Dan
He's clearly looking at a lot of the same levels we are...
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/26_Norcini_-_If_This_Happens_It_Will_Devastate_The_Gold_Shorts.html
Also from KWN, this from Peter Schiff:
"I’m surprised that gold is not rallying even more considering what’s happening. Gold has now broken out of a channel. There was a very nice trendline and we just broke out of that today. Now that we have broken out of that channel, there is a lot of room to the upside. The next channel for resistance appears to be another $100 higher than current levels for gold.
If gold breaks above the $1,650 level with conviction, then I think we are looking at retest of the all-time highs from late summer of 2011. And nobody is really anticipating that because these gold stocks are priced for a collapse in the price of gold, not a return to the highs."
Ranting Andy
Turd, thanks for the link to the Ranting Andy read. I recall that some of our fine colleagues here doubted McGwire's motives. They may be interested to read what Andy says upon concluding:
That assures me.
I was also struck by the fact that even though Western economies are blind to the manipulation, the BRICS nations are not fooled and are stacking metals vigorously. The sale will not last forever. That in itself is good cause to stack, hold, and wait. Reality will trump the bankster's lies, eventually, maybe next month!
Keep stacking
@ Irksome...
We just did a loan modify to take our present loan from 16 years to 10 years and got 2.375%. It only cost $1k for a loan modify v. a refi and there was no appraisal.
Ask for a modify vs. a refi. I think most banks won't offer this up as an option unless you ask. They don't make as much money for the paper work.
I am not an expert on this subject but just throwing out another option. There might be the fine print that may not work for you.
GH
Agreed, Doc
I forwarded the link to Andy when I saw it. His reply was that "he was flattered".
He is a genuinely nice man with honest intentions. He, like the rest of us, is simply trying to make a difference.
COT
Turd-
Any early thoughts on the COTs?
Thanks for the quote tyberious
I really miss Bob, like some member of my extended family passed away. It was such a pleasure to hear him speak in his calm coolness about how this intel can be pieced together. To think of this wealth of information to stop flowing unrestricted. This snake oil salesman who advised him not to treat his health issues...who and where is this person? RIP Bob...