Wrapping Up

Saturday, July 21, 2012 at 12:23 pm

The Turd is wrapping up his relaxation extravaganza this weekend and he'll be back at his post bright and early on Monday. Until then, here's some stuff for the weekend.

First of all, some charts. Let's start with the metals. Both have flat-lined, which is interesting because a flat-line usually precedes some type of dramatic move, either up or down. We see this sometimes on the short-term charts. We rarely see this play out over days on the hourly charts but here we are. My personal feeling is that we are very close to a significant break OUT and UP. We'll go into more detail on this on Monday.

And you should probably listen to this:

Crude broke through $90 on Thursday and, despite giving some back on Friday, has managed to hold that position over the weekend. It looks strong here and geo-political events are certainly poised to continue to support it.

And the grains are, quite literally, ON FIRE. Though they are susceptible to a sharp pullback here, the forecast isn't getting any better. And it's still July. Yikes. Here's the latest forecast for Kansas City, Missouri. Right in the middle of corn and soybean country.

And here are your weekly charts showing new all-time highs in both corn and beans. The DAG, which we first discussed here a few weeks ago near $9, is closing in on $15, too.

The latest CoT was kind of a bummer. For the reporting week, gold rose $9 and silver rose 44c. In the face of that, The Gold Cartel added over 6000 new net shorts and The Evil Empire added just over 1000 new net short in silver. Not a disaster but not real encouraging, either. The only positive in the report is in the LargeSpecShortSheep category for silver where the LSSS added another 1,123 gross shorts. This brings their total up to over 20,000 at 20,775 and lowers the LargeSpec net long ratio to just 1.37:1. Again, for perspective, on 4/5/11, the LargeSpec net long ratio was 4.04:1 based upon 48,890 longs and just 12,105 shorts.

Three items of reading material for you. First, this interesting piece from John Aziz. It's worth considering. http://azizonomics.com/2012/07/21/why-is-the-fed-not-printing-like-crazy/

Next, Detlev Schlichter has written another excellent article: http://papermoneycollapse.com/2012/07/happy-interventionists-the-economists-attack-on-your-property/

And, finally, some interesting perspective from KWN's "London Trader". Note that there are no price targets or forecasts. Just a simple and concise analysis of demand fundamentals. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/20_London_Trader_-_The_LBMA_Gold_Price_Fixing_Scheme_Is_Over.html

OK, that's all for now. I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing weekend and I look forward to getting back to "business as usual" on Monday.

TF

p.s. When I return, I expect the "Main St" thread comments to return to "normal", too. Main Street is where we discuss the metals, the economy and issues dealing with the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment. It is not the place for subjects like Zionist conspiracies and Chemtrails. All are certainly welcome to discuss those items here but it needs to be done in the forums. http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/conspiracy-theories. Thank you in advance for your cooperation.

Comments

Tabberto's picture

@ DAG

Submitted by Tabberto on July 23, 2012 - 5:37am.

Is Max Keiser a shill?  SURE....thats why he arranges exorcisms outside JPM headquarters in NYC

and why he is waking up people all over the planet with his ranting about why you should own Silver

his Global Warming stance is dictated by his Mrs, she is the fundamentalist Global Warming preacher

El Gordo's picture

She's bitter

Submitted by El Gordo on July 23, 2012 - 5:39am.

Cause Turd keeps withholding the anaconda.  Come on Turd, take one for the team.

SRSrocco's picture

SEND IN THE CLOWNS.....

Submitted by SRSrocco on July 23, 2012 - 5:55am.

Indians should reduce gold tributes to God - RBI Deputy Governor

In order to keep gold prices under check, the practice of giving gold as dowry or as an offering at religious places must be curbed, as should gold jewellery purchases, suggests a senior official at India's central bank.

MUMBAI (MINEWEB) -

Gold offerings at temples have come under the scanner of the Reserve Bank of India. Deputy Governor K C Chakrabarty has called for a reduction in demand for gold as an offering to the deities.

``Ninety percent of the gold demand is jewellery or to offer to God. Both have to stop,'' said the official of the apex bank. The deputy Governor noted that Indian society's obsession with gold was an archaic idea of pre-historic times when India was a rich society of abundance.

``Wearing gold as an ornament was a culture when you were a rich society, when you were contributing to 30% of the GDP of the world. Today, we have become a poor country, we need to change our culture,'' he added.

Going even further to drive in his point, Chakrabarty claimed there was no `intrinsic value' in the `speculative' investment of gold. He urged those in the financial world like chartered accountants to explain to the people the non-productivity of investing in gold.

Hitting another nail, he added the precious metal cannot be used for anything productive and gains in value only because of a ``mad rush'' for the commodity among speculators. The day this will end, the price will fall sharply, he said

------------------------------------------------

These are the sort of TRICKS those in high places in govt have to resort to in the GREAT BAMBOOZLE.  We can also see how Chakrabarty has taken the WARREN BUFFET GOLD PLAYBOOK.... HOOK, LINE AND SINKER.

I find it simply amazing that these clowns have nothing better to do than try and resist the natural forces of gravity.... complete folly in my book.  I believe the Indian public is probably a great deal more aware of the merits of REAL MONEY, than the Royal Bank of India's Deputy Governor and his crew of orthodox accountant cronies. 

SIlverbee's picture

The first of Many

Submitted by SIlverbee on July 23, 2012 - 6:29am.

Someone recently wrote that the Euro is dead just they have not realized it yet. This is true.

I have always considered a currency to be a share in the prosperity of the nation printing it. If they are producing quality, desirable products and services then people will want to convert their currency to the successful nation's currency increasing demand and raising its value. The opposite being true. The scarcity of the currency will be in part related to the amount of volume of other currencies i.e. get more £ for $ when converting then relatively less $'s in existence this also increases the value.

The value is also linked to the reluctance of the nation to print more and the obvious trade surplus and probable government fiscal balance.

Anyway in Europe the nations can not operate like this since they have a common currency and thus the differential in success can not be represented. This is where the the bonds come in. If the debt of the nation is ultimately the liability of the government through business and bank bailouts the and if this is done by increasing the governments debt and therefore need more bonds to be sold then to make them attractive and cover the increased risk of defaulting because of the additional debt liabilities detailed above the interest charged increases. The higher increase represented a differential affect.

So when you look at the PIGS they have higher interest on their debt and the strong nations like Germany and Finland have negative rates. This is analogous to strong and weak currencies.

So in affect since currencies represents a share (in the debt) of a nation a bond ALSO represents and share in the debt of a nation.

Thus the new currencies of the individual nations in Europe have for trading purposes become their bonds.

If you take this one step further. If a nation offers to sell more bonds they are in affect creating more currency otherwise known as QE.

Excalibur's picture

@chinaussiedoll

Submitted by Excalibur on July 23, 2012 - 6:41am.

Hope you take no damage in the battering. Keep us updated from your hidey hole. It's great to get your reports from Hong Kong and from others around the globe. Sometimes it is the only way to know what is really going on - like what life is like in Latvia behind the stats and propaganda.

If there are any lurkers from countries that we never hear from, I would urge you to post. Don't worry about grammar if that is holding you back, who a shit gives about syntax and the like.

I wonder what the country count is the for site. Do the Mods have that info?

donduderino's picture

about lease rates and the effects of LIBOR on gold & silver

Submitted by donduderino on July 23, 2012 - 7:09am.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/486671-rising-gold-lease-rates-indicate-easing-price-manipulation

http://seekingalpha.com/article/733711-libor-scandal-and-its-effects-on-gold-and-silver-lease-rates

Number 47's picture

@clinkinky

Submitted by Number 47 on July 23, 2012 - 7:10am.

TBH. When rocoach posted that first post I thought he was quoting something I had said in the past. Sounds exactly like I would have said it.

The right wing, religious nut jobbery is well entrenched here and anyone who posts anything not agreed with by some members is hounded, harangued and abused until they give up. The same posters braying like donkeys are quite happy to indulge in off topic discussions, as long as the content is not against their agenda.

Just this weekend I dared to say that returning fire in a crowded theater would have been counter productive. I had harm wished upon me, I was called an elitist ass licker and a troll.

I believe I won that argument, just on the emotional responses alone.

People who respond to logic with emotions should not have firearms available to them.

I Run Bartertown's picture

I am the only Right Wing here

Submitted by I Run Bartertown on July 23, 2012 - 7:34am.

We have some staunch Conservative, Inc. And some religious folk.

But that's not Right Wing. GOP and churches went Left a long time ago. Neocons and egalitarians...In actual practice, the Churches have moved the nation further left than the radical leftists have.

“Enslaving Liberals, Homosexuals, And Democrats”…"

​Why would anyone want to do that? OK, well maybe some homosexuals work and your house would look nice, but those others? Who the hell would want them?

Excalibur's picture

Simple Question on Guns

Submitted by Excalibur on July 23, 2012 - 7:35am.

This question has been asked several times, but with no conclusion:

Why cannot gun related issues go to a forum?

It took several attempts to get one dogged enthusiast to go to a forum with his chemtrails, so I guess it is a lot harder to get the many people with interest in guns to take their conversations off Main St.

In fact, without the Mods it just ain't gonna happen. So there needs to be a policy decision taken by TF and the Mods.

recaptureamerica's picture

Has drought put the U.S. food

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 23, 2012 - 7:39am.

Has drought put the U.S. food supply at risk?
One third of the nation's counties are affected by the largest dry spell since 1956, which will likely raise the prices of dairy, grain, produce, and meat
http://theweek.com/article/index/230831/has-drought-put-the-us-food-supp...

Not good.. is in the forecast

recaptureamerica's picture

COWPOCALYPSE: Prepare For The

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 23, 2012 - 7:42am.

COWPOCALYPSE: Prepare For The Largest-Ever Drop In Livestock Herds

http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-livestock-herds-2012-7

Saddened that many farmers will lose their farms, etc

recaptureamerica's picture

US poverty on track to rise

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 23, 2012 - 7:45am.

US poverty on track to rise to highest since 1960s
http://news.yahoo.com/us-poverty-track-rise-highest-since-1960s-11294654...

Stack! Food, water, ammo, pms, etc..

recaptureamerica's picture

Theres so much geopolitical manure!

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 23, 2012 - 7:47am.

Will there be war over the Tiaoyutais?
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/the-china-post/joe-hung/2012/07/2...

This may be bigger than most think...

recaptureamerica's picture

Beijing to investigate US, S.

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 23, 2012 - 7:49am.

Beijing to investigate US, S. Korean solar material imports

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/asia-china/2012/07/22/348405/Beijin...

Silver used in solar, no?

recaptureamerica's picture

Global economy in worst shape

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 23, 2012 - 7:50am.

Global economy in worst shape since 2009
http://www.ocala.com/article/20120722/WIRE/120729896/1005/sports01?Title...

Thats why i " water and feed" my stack... So it keeps growing!

treefrog's picture

s roche re: US firearm homicide data...

Submitted by treefrog on July 23, 2012 - 7:52am.

does the 8,775 gun homicide deaths for 2010 include suicides?  that's a favorite way of the antigunners to inflate statistics.

I Run Bartertown's picture

47

Submitted by I Run Bartertown on July 23, 2012 - 7:52am.

"..should not have firearms available to them"

​If you're a true believer in that, take them away.

Something tells me even Bloomberg would lose his true belief when the rubber hit the road. 

​Laws are just words on paper, but a genuine confiscation attempt would change this nation forever. People haven't resisted the degradation of every aspect of their society. They've given up on fixing what has been corroded. They move further away and hope for  the occasional fairness at the margins (like school vouchers for example).

​The only 'right-wing' issue of any kind that has made progress is CCW/ Castle Doctrine, Stand Your Ground. That's because people, in a dead society, are drawing the line at keeping a bare minimum of safety for their families. Leftists (the same people who soiled our entire society) screw with that at their own peril. Why would we fight the armored goons (like you want us to) when we can just hunt those who unleashed them on us?

recaptureamerica's picture

China approves military

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 23, 2012 - 7:53am.

China approves military garrison for disputed islands
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-18949941

As mention just b4, this can quickly accelerate into more serious crapola

recaptureamerica's picture

War On All

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 23, 2012 - 7:54am.

War On All Fronts

http://www.salem-news.com/articles/july212012/war-all-fronts-pcr.php

Hmmm, whats the definition of a WW?

Beastly Stack's picture

Let's Roll

Submitted by Beastly Stack on July 23, 2012 - 7:55am.

I guess I slept well.Not surprised to see the mkts where they are.Now the question is,are they able to smash the metals lower on the Crimex Open?

recaptureamerica's picture

Germany to support solar

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 23, 2012 - 7:57am.

Germany to support solar industry in anti-dumping action versus China
http://www.brecorder.com/fuel-a-energy/193/1219465/

S Roche's picture

@donduderino

Submitted by S Roche on July 23, 2012 - 7:57am.

Lease Rates and the effects on the market (or the market's effect on Lease Rates) is a very complex issue. It may not be as simple as the author suggests. Here is an alternative view with some added detail: http://www.pollitt.com/upfile/pdf/Oct_2011_Wrap.pdf

Edit: In case you are not confused, here is the Iza Kaminska FT article referred to in the link above: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09/14/677021/why-gold-forward-rate-inversion-is-important/

recaptureamerica's picture

Eurozone debt crisis makes

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 23, 2012 - 8:00am.

Eurozone debt crisis makes Germany richer
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/eurozone...

Hmmmm, another one of those things...
Never know what the end goal was is or will be until mission accomplished

recaptureamerica's picture

Debt crisis: Greek economy is

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 23, 2012 - 8:03am.

Debt crisis: Greek economy is in a 'Great Depression' says Samaras
Greece is in a "Great Depression" similar to the American one in the 1930s, the country's Prime Minister Antonis Samaras told former US President Bill Clinton on Sunday.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9418656/Debt-crisis-G...

Hindsight....
Seeing your ass as things spiral down the toilet bowl...

recaptureamerica's picture

Turkey Sends Surface-to-Air

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 23, 2012 - 8:06am.

Turkey Sends Surface-to-Air Missiles to Syrian Border
Missile Batteries Arrive as Rebels Seize Border Crossings

http://news.antiwar.com/2012/07/22/turkey-sends-surface-to-air-missiles-...

recaptureamerica's picture

Blast Rocks Egypt's Gas

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 23, 2012 - 8:10am.

Blast Rocks Egypt's Gas Pipeline To Israel, Jordan
http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v6/newsworld.php?id=682407

recaptureamerica's picture

What?? NYPD? Grasping at war straws?

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 23, 2012 - 8:13am.

New York police link Iran to nine plots against Jewish targets
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/0721/1224320530381.html

Beastly Stack's picture

Dollar

Submitted by Beastly Stack on July 23, 2012 - 8:14am.

I find it very interesting that the US dollar is not much stronger,find it very telling!

recaptureamerica's picture

Iran urges UN to stop

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 23, 2012 - 8:14am.

Iran urges UN to stop massacre of Muslims in Myanmar
Political Desk

http://www.tehrantimes.com/politics/99814-iran-urges-un-to-step-into-mas...

recaptureamerica's picture

Brazil's Economy May Grow

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 23, 2012 - 8:15am.

Brazil's Economy May Grow Only 1% in 2012 - Mendonca de Barros
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120720-708493.html

If the BRICS are weak, so is everything else above..

Syndicate content Comments for "Wrapping Up"