Wrapping Up

Saturday, July 21, 2012 at 12:23 pm

The Turd is wrapping up his relaxation extravaganza this weekend and he'll be back at his post bright and early on Monday. Until then, here's some stuff for the weekend.

First of all, some charts. Let's start with the metals. Both have flat-lined, which is interesting because a flat-line usually precedes some type of dramatic move, either up or down. We see this sometimes on the short-term charts. We rarely see this play out over days on the hourly charts but here we are. My personal feeling is that we are very close to a significant break OUT and UP. We'll go into more detail on this on Monday.

And you should probably listen to this:

Crude broke through $90 on Thursday and, despite giving some back on Friday, has managed to hold that position over the weekend. It looks strong here and geo-political events are certainly poised to continue to support it.

And the grains are, quite literally, ON FIRE. Though they are susceptible to a sharp pullback here, the forecast isn't getting any better. And it's still July. Yikes. Here's the latest forecast for Kansas City, Missouri. Right in the middle of corn and soybean country.

And here are your weekly charts showing new all-time highs in both corn and beans. The DAG, which we first discussed here a few weeks ago near $9, is closing in on $15, too.

The latest CoT was kind of a bummer. For the reporting week, gold rose $9 and silver rose 44c. In the face of that, The Gold Cartel added over 6000 new net shorts and The Evil Empire added just over 1000 new net short in silver. Not a disaster but not real encouraging, either. The only positive in the report is in the LargeSpecShortSheep category for silver where the LSSS added another 1,123 gross shorts. This brings their total up to over 20,000 at 20,775 and lowers the LargeSpec net long ratio to just 1.37:1. Again, for perspective, on 4/5/11, the LargeSpec net long ratio was 4.04:1 based upon 48,890 longs and just 12,105 shorts.

Three items of reading material for you. First, this interesting piece from John Aziz. It's worth considering. http://azizonomics.com/2012/07/21/why-is-the-fed-not-printing-like-crazy/

Next, Detlev Schlichter has written another excellent article: http://papermoneycollapse.com/2012/07/happy-interventionists-the-economists-attack-on-your-property/

And, finally, some interesting perspective from KWN's "London Trader". Note that there are no price targets or forecasts. Just a simple and concise analysis of demand fundamentals. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/20_London_Trader_-_The_LBMA_Gold_Price_Fixing_Scheme_Is_Over.html

OK, that's all for now. I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing weekend and I look forward to getting back to "business as usual" on Monday.

p.s. When I return, I expect the "Main St" thread comments to return to "normal", too. Main Street is where we discuss the metals, the economy and issues dealing with the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment. It is not the place for subjects like Zionist conspiracies and Chemtrails. All are certainly welcome to discuss those items here but it needs to be done in the forums. http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/conspiracy-theories. Thank you in advance for your cooperation.

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Comments

@Mr.Fix

Submitted by Just A Regular Guy on July 22, 2012 - 9:59pm.

I have never been a stock trader until now The fundamentals seem so strong it's a joke: they have been pounded down, they have not been bought up so are VERY cheap, they ARE TURNING PROFIT, the unhedged companies, in theory, should profit BIG TIME if the price of gold goes up, so i'm happy to gamble-gamble on them. I mean where else am I going to put my cash? Housing prices here are insane, bank rates suck, utilities have been over-bought like crazy, financials are way too risky given the current environment (even though the "Big 4" banks here are rolling in cash) for the return you'll see in the next few years, BHP/Rio. etc. are big into Iron-Ore/Coal, and so will be continued to be beaten down in the next few years. etc. etc.....

So it's the lame-a$$ buy and hold strategy for me, if I go bust, I bust, but there just seems so much upside. I just hope some dumb politician doesn't do something stupid...... Buy-and-hold, ala Warren.B - just hope I didn't just buy GM

The miners here (mid-capped) have been doing okay over the last few weeks - today is a total bloodbath tho, but the price of gold has remained steady.... COMEX is a joke tho.... so forgetit. The gold-miners I hold are either debt-free or less then 10% debt and have good +ve cashflow/balances.

My only other thought is, like everyone says, TPTB are just trying to get all the weak-hands out. I don't need to sell for financial reasons, I'm doing fine, so I can wait for a good opportunity to sell into strength. I don't have options/warrants/CFDs or any of that because I really don't want to go busto within a few months, and I don't have enough experience to be doing that crazy sh!t yet - if anything I'd only buy some options in the future, but we'll see.

Peace

@Roark - Great (and

Submitted by cpnscarlet on July 22, 2012 - 10:06pm.

@Roark - Great (and troubling) post. Nice to be shaken out of a comfortable "net presence" with that type of lesson. But are you saying that there really is "no drought" or that it's just a "normal drought", or what?

I may be many things, but a farmer is not one of them. So educate me. What are you saying? Even if this is the normal ebb and flow of things, are you saying the price of corn shouldn't being going as high as it is, or at all? I look at the drought maps and things look scary enough to me (in historical context). And I just stocked up on $400 worth of freezer stores preparing for the fall-out.

don't underestimate politicians ability to do something stupid

Submitted by Mr. Fix on July 22, 2012 - 10:08pm.

@ Just A Regular Guy,

Interesting conversation,

very best of luck,

Just keep stacking!

cpn

Submitted by El Gordo on July 22, 2012 - 10:08pm.

One of the knocks on PM's is that they don't earn any interest. Well, neither does a Treasury any more. At 0% yield there is only one way it can go, and we all know that if rates go up, principle value goes down. My symbolic protest consists simply of trading my FRN's for PM's and watching to see what happens.

S Roche guilty as charged

Submitted by maravich44 on July 22, 2012 - 10:18pm.

you have been doing fine work and I always read your posts and appreciate the effort involved, anyway Thank You. I will do my part on the Hat Tips. Best.

New contest? But not funny.

Submitted by Mr. Fix on July 22, 2012 - 10:21pm.

@cpnscarlet:

I personally am running my own private revolt,

for the past four years, I have withdrawn all of my savings,

and purchased gold and silver bullion coins.

Admittedly, I am not making much of a dent in public perception,

but it does seem to be working for me personally.

CPN--corn

Submitted by stealthbear on July 22, 2012 - 10:25pm.

I'll let Roark answer for himself, but let me give you a little perspective. Roark is from TX--what part I do not know. Crops are planted earlier and harvested earlier than in most of the US. I wonder if the picture Roark provided showed how tall the corn plants were and that they had matured ears on them already and the respondents knew where he lived. I live in Kansas. If the corn plants here are brown (as they are), they are short and have not produced mature ears yet--if they have ears at all. Our corn plants do not mature with developed ears until late August, or September. Corn here is not harvested until October. Corn in Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, etc. should not be brown this early in the growing season. It's all relative. The problems with the corn crop are not hyperbole. I will state, however, that the top price in the market will happen at the peak of the bad news, whenever that is. I certainly wouldn't want to be buying in at this level.

@hey roark

Submitted by BlackHawk on July 22, 2012 - 10:29pm.

The failed corn crop is related to drought: lack of rainfall coupled with record breaking high temperatures. The drought may be related to longer term global climate change. If it is, we will never react in time to change it. We will shortly be importing corn from Brazil because of a shortage of corn available for animal feed in the US. In MO where I live, the corn crop has totally failed. No ears have formed and the stalks are brown and dried at the base and curled still green at the tops. No ears have formed and they won't. The crop is failed. Dead. It's over for this year. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/41ce586c-d29d-11e1-abe7-00144feabdc0.html

@blackhawk

Submitted by opticsguy on July 22, 2012 - 10:35pm.

I see thousands of acres of corn like that near Dallas. It grows like crazy until late May or June, then turns brown and it gets cut down. I can see how letting it dry out thoroughly would be important if it was going to be baled.

I wouldn't call this stuff corn as much as a fast-growing grass.

As above, so below.

Submitted by knavechild on July 22, 2012 - 10:38pm.

There is a lot more at work here than just economics, politics, and religion.

As above, so below:

http://www.goroadachi.com/etemenanki/auroracode2012.html

Keep your senses sharp, and learn the rules of the game we're playing, because that's exactly what it is.......a cosmic game.

"From experience I can say that foresight is not something easily attained. Our reality is not static, it's dynamic. The future is fluid and influenced by what we do, see, and are aware of in the present. The future reacts to our actions and perception so as not to "reward" the unworthy with the gift of foresight. The more purely you align with truth, the more you are "worthy", that is to say, the more you resonate with the future (unrealized possibilities). "

No doubt.

-Knavechild

@El Gordo, Mr. Fix - that is

Submitted by cpnscarlet on July 22, 2012 - 10:40pm.

@El Gordo, Mr. Fix - that is about as "un-symbolic" as you can get, since it is the epitome of a sane, practical response to the situation which most of was are doing to some extent. Carry on. I'm trying to think of something to do on a street corner short of self-immolation or spending large $ to make a scene/statement/point about financial repression. Simply using the old shtick of wearing a barrel with "Courtesy of the Federal Reserve" on it is a thought.

Yen

Submitted by AinT on July 22, 2012 - 10:46pm.

Yen's having a bad morning. No doubt the BOJ will be stepping in soon to save the day! Look for a spike up to 81-82....

had enough

Submitted by cheekco on July 22, 2012 - 10:50pm.

Our pastures are dryed up, our milk production is dropping like a f..cking rock.

Feeding up our winter hay supply at 80.00 a bale. Corn withered. Grain just un afordable.

My farmer buddy;s are talking of selling off stock , can;t feed them......

Then to top it all off, I spend the little time I have catching up on what was posted on KWN blog this week!!!!!!!!!

MAN O MAN.....WTF

We decided we are packing up all our shit moving to another planet..................

Sorry,,,,,, just thinking out loud and dreaming................... does make me feel better

cheekco

Submitted by Prize Fighter on July 22, 2012 - 11:13pm.

I booked my extra-planetary ticket long ago and am still holding the few gold pandas for payment. I hear aliens like gold so I think we'll be in luck. I'll save you a seat.

@cheeko

Submitted by NW VIEW on July 22, 2012 - 11:43pm.

It appears that our area of the USA is one of the best for crops this year. My brother-in-law was selling 1200# bales for $55 but raised his prices with the new cutting. There are hundreds of acres of hay all around his farms and he is cutting it ASAP. Semi trucks are coming across the pass into Western Washington and loading up on inexpensive hay.

I met a farmer in Northern Idaho who cuts 650 acres of organic hay and is making big fiat. Moving to another planet will not solve the problems but moving to an area that has a better weather environment may work.

Katie Rose has had her problems with gardens, crops, bugs, and even wolves but we have just planted our second crop of peas in our garden. There are areas where the food supplies from crops are normal. jmo

Reminder

Submitted by El Gordo on July 22, 2012 - 11:59pm.

There is a finite amount of water available on planet Earth, some solid, some liquid, and some gas. The average annual rainfall never varies much, however, it may not always fall in the same places. Ocean currents control the weather over the USA. Typically during the summertime, we get large high pressure areas forming over the great plains (high pressure means higher temperatures for those of you who don't handle air compressors). Crop yields vary from farm to farm annually due to weather events such as rain, hail, tornados, hurricanes, hot weather, cold weather, floods, and so forth. It's happened since the beginning of time, and probably will continue to happen in the future. I feel for the farmers who are being hurt by this, but they know that it goes with the territory. I predict the heat will go away as soon as the Earth moves a little further along in it's trip around the sun.

Is Max Keiser a Shill??

Submitted by Dagney Taggart on July 23, 2012 - 12:06am.

He has a happy harry hard-on for AGW deniers. We know the world was warmer in times when homo sapien wasn't even on the evolutionary radar. The earth has a precessionary wobble to explain this. It's not even hard to understand.

Makes me wonder if he's even a true believer in Silver as well?!? Hmmm.....

Thanks rocoach...

Submitted by ClinkinKY on July 23, 2012 - 12:09am.

...you've saved me from using the IU button for the first time...if you really are going to confine your reading to Turd's posts. I thought "you guys" were the "tolerant" ones. And I'm not "religious" nor "gun-toting". But I am "right-wing" if, by that, you mean not being part of the "Borg". Thanks for your "open mind". Careful, there's something spilling out there. Wow.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Reference:

Submitted by rocoach on July 20, 2012 - 8:12pm.

You Americans will never learn. It's this obsession with guns and might and posturing that has gotten you into this mess in the first place. You really do believe that everything can be solved by killing and threatening people.

Too many whack jobs here

Submitted by rocoach on July 22, 2012 - 5:26pm.

It's becoming an increasing waste of time trying to find the useful posts on this forum. There's too many religious right-wing gun-toting whack-jobs here now. In order to preserve my sanity and my faith in my fellow-humans; from now on, I'm going to limit myself to reading Turd's commentary only.

Tired,so tired

Submitted by Beastly Stack on July 23, 2012 - 12:18am.

Gold sits here @1578.8 just after midnight and I have had enough already.

Friday it is Spain,all weekend it is Spain,now this evening it is Greece again,sorry but WTF!

Will gold and silver break this triangle to the downside,it does appear that way by looking at everything else,but do I really care at this point?Was the cartel able to hold the markets from breaking out because they now the equity markets could not keep going?A big crash is about to unfold?Holy F*$% I'm spent.

I do believe QE is coming and I also believe it won't do a damn thing to the real economy!

I remember 2008 when it all came down!

I also remember the day of the FLASH Crash,everything was crashing and the lone thing that stood above all was GOLD!

Now it is not just Greece-we've got Spain ,Italy and all of Europe for all we know!We have the US in a BIG LIE that is being exposed,the Middle East,and China-how do we really know WTF is going on there?

I guess when things look so bleak as they do know and I am actually questioning a downside break,it is time to tighten my stops in gold and just go to sleep and see what the world looks like in about 6 hours,and I guess that really just scares the crap out of me!

To all of you good night and to the big boys who control the markets-GO FUCK YOURSELVES!

Mining stocks etc

Submitted by sprite on July 23, 2012 - 12:29am.

Regarding bottom fishing the mining stocks

Just a Regular Guy has some good points but I'm still waiting for the XMM to bottom out, or at least make a higher low. The HUI still doesn't know if its Arthur or Martha at this point in time. I don't catch falling knives.

One scenario worth considering has been touched on by many members here, I hope I have this right:

1 Precious metals bottom, coinciding with an 'event', probably one that none of us have predicted.

2 PMs are stampeded into by the herd until it gets to the point there is no physical left, thanks to the central bank buying, within a reasonable delivery timeframe (being 10 weeks)

3 So people look around for something else to park their money into - PM mining stocks, hard commodity stocks, soft commodities. 10 and 30 year treasuries suffer a collapse (some would argue they are already there). Note: I don't understand parking any money in something which offers a negative return on investment and carries risk of sovereign default.... am I missing something?

4 Only then will we see a recovery pattern in mining/commodity stocks

5 People will then become focused on earnings and production and the juniors will suffer M&A or fall by the wayside if we enter into a period of soaring oil prices, which I think is more likely than not. Only bigger players will remain as viable options to invest in the medium-long term.

Just my perspective.....please DYOR

Serenity Now--(Festivus is right around the corner...

Submitted by ClinkinKY on July 23, 2012 - 12:43am.

...right?)

("Your" people rocoach). Glad you're only reading Turd's posts. /s

Jesus! (oh, I'm sorry rocoach, just a figure of speech:)

--------------------------------------------------------------

George Costanza Hits Tea Partiers After Colorado Movie Shooting: “These People” Are Okay With The Government “Enslaving Liberals, Homosexuals, And Democrats”…

Via Jason Alexander:

I’d like to preface this long tweet by saying that my passion comes from my deepest sympathy and shared sorrow with yesterday’s victims and with the utmost respect for the people and the police/fire/medical/political forces of Aurora and all who seek to comfort and aid these victims.

This morning, I made a comment about how I do not understand people who support public ownership of assault style weapons like the AR-15 used in the Colorado massacre.

That comment, has of course, inspired a lot of feedback. There have been many tweets of agreement and sympathy but many, many more that have been challenging at the least, hostile and vitriolic at the worst.

Clearly, the angry, threatened and threatening, hostile comments are coming from gun owners and gun advocates. Despite these massacres recurring and despite the 100,000 Americans that die every year due to domestic gun violence – these people see no value to even considering some kind of control as to what kinds of weapons are put in civilian hands.

Many of them cite patriotism as their reason – true patriots support the Constitution adamantly and wholly. Constitution says citizens have the right to bear arms in order to maintain organized militias. [...]

These people believe that the US government is eventually going to go street by street and enslave our citizens. Now as long as that is only happening to liberals, homosexuals and democrats – no problem.

100,000 violent gun deaths each year

Submitted by El Gordo on July 23, 2012 - 12:52am.

I'd sure like to see a source for that number. Oh, I forgot about Chicago.

100K

Submitted by Dawg on July 23, 2012 - 12:56am.

It was apparently picked out of his ass.....

Or he is just a simple sole who is brain washed....

Dawg

Very good link about GSR

Submitted by ivars on July 23, 2012 - 2:19am.

Very good link about GSR dynamics, past and present:

http://www.zealllc.com/2012/silvund.htm

US 10 years yield 1.425, EUR 1,209, USDx (DXY) 83,83! Once it moves above 84, have to look at USDx prediction chart and move the time axis a bit, and think very carefully about maximum USDx will reach before flattening out ( as EUR/USD reaches parity). This chart is the basis:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/78039#comment-78039

EUR/USD Still following the prediction chart, so it seems that falling EUR has to be taken into account for at least the next part of this year (down to 1,10-1,125, another 10%) :

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/188710#comment-188710

So there are now 2-3 charts whose developments I may use to improve the last versions of silver and gold price prediction, GSR and EUR. Not easy, but the picture should become more clear soon. One aspect would be just to see GSR moving down convincingly enough (say to 55 or so).

In the meantime, silver just have to hang on >26 as GSR changes, until..

.stumble,you might fall

Submitted by maravich44 on July 23, 2012 - 2:39am.

tedious conversions happening. careful.have you changed? are you watching?

Two Typhoons hitting Hong Kong Today!

Submitted by chinaussiedoll on July 23, 2012 - 3:12am.

While we sit and wait for Typhoon Vincent to arrive the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is down over two percent in a day on fears that the Spanish crisis is much bigger than first feared and will have a major impact on exports from China and thus Hong Kong.
Surprisingly the metals and gold in particular are holding up well - usually they are smashed here when the Euro is descending - maybe more people are seeing it's appeal as a safe haven.
Anyway, back to checking for leaks and laying down sandbags along the French doors.

US firearm homicide data...

Submitted by S Roche on July 23, 2012 - 3:20am.

From The Guardian UK (no friend of gun owners) for 2010: 8,775 firearms homicides in the US, they note that the rate is reducing...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/jan/10/gun-crime-us-state using the FBI records http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded/expandhomicidemain.

and the rate for justifiable homicides by private citizens using firearms is trending up: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/10shrtbl15.xls

Oops, now down 3% in one day

Submitted by chinaussiedoll on July 23, 2012 - 3:32am.

What's going to happen in stock markets in the rest of the world today?

BTFD!?

Submitted by Boswell on July 23, 2012 - 4:54am.

Tonight's low?

$26.80/$1570

Tonight's low?

Submitted by Louie on July 23, 2012 - 5:34am.

Let's hope!

Of course this is proof positive that the Evil Empire reads this blog, and manipulates the market in the opposite direction! No sooner are we talking about the Tier 1 capital issue putting a floor under G&S, than Blythe says, "Floor, hu? I'll show you floor!"

Feed the Turd!