I have a small position in the green, but I normally don't hold POT. Does in move up parallel with oil or ag stocks?
Pailin's Trading Corner
July 17, 2012 - 12:37pm
#25422
Got POT?
July 17, 2012 - 1:02pm
#25423
sold USLV
sold my USLV position, for a 3.79% gain.
Total return today 7.2%.
Seems quite profitable to play with USLV/DSLV. As long as you have enough $ to have 1-2% moves worth your while, it's quite easy to simply catch the bus on the way down or the way up on days you know there will be market movement. Like CoT report, Bernake speaking, etc.
Mind you, it's taken me a long time to develop this strategy. I first bought into silver on Nov 09. Saw a $5k account turn into $17k at $49.5 silver, and then lose 5k by staying long AGQ overnight. So I'm not advocating this strategy to anyone. And certainly not with your 'nest egg'. The strategy is still in it's youth, although it's starting to develop sea-legs. It certainly did feel like a casino for a long time, and I'm still learning a lot as a trader (it's be stupid to consider myself an 'investor'). A lot of my strategy has come from reading this thread and learning from the likes of the usual suspects here.
Will wait it out until tomorrow afternoon to take an overnight position in DSLV.
As a side note, it would be nice to ask (and get) some commentary about different strategies for playing the silver market. What other strategies do people use here? It would be nice to talk about this, compare notes and ideas.
July 17, 2012 - 1:25pm
#25424
OE
Imo, more than anything and well disguised, today was an OE shakeout on both sides going into Friday. True intent is higher and a close over 1354 makes 1388 a good probability.
Sweathogs and Pigmen blew out longs at top of the trade and shorts at bottom in ES and equities options, now its time for some settlement and clearer direction Watching 1354. Snorting,bristled and hooved, the players have released so much methane across the floor today that lower Manhattan has had to be temporarily evacuated until FEMA can reassess air quality later this evening.
July 17, 2012 - 1:41pm
#25425
Breakout
Breakout targets 1372 on smaller wave count, 1388-90 on larger wavecount imo. Clear straight up impulsive move recovering all the selling, reversing = strong. That said one can always re-evaluate at close but I think the Pigmen have left their Hog dung droppings all over the trading floor. Art Cashin was overwhelmed and taken to hospital. Santelli has needed a snow plow to maneuver thru the mountains of pig fece...
July 17, 2012 - 1:58pm
#25426
mje173 wrote:
As a side note,
As a side note, it would be nice to ask (and get) some commentary about different strategies for playing the silver market. What other strategies do people use here? It would be nice to talk about this, compare notes and ideas.
Titus has some really good stuff with time-of-day and Pailin has covered pivots pretty thoroughly. I would definitely recommend checking out their posts from the past. Lots of good stuff in this thread aside from them too..
July 17, 2012 - 2:10pm
#25428
Trend following Discussion
Rico has a forum running with an insightful method for trend trading:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/3288/trend-following-discussion
July 17, 2012 - 2:18pm
#25429
Pailin
Gdx still looks shortable on bounces imo and the metals are being pulled up by the ES. They will fall quickly should equities pull back. That said its best to be safe rather than sorry. I am pretty much out of the metals trade until I see demonstrated strength. A bit too low to short and not high enough to go long and that is fine with me.
Metals sector is hard money. Like trying to date a supermodel who is on crack and is sexually ambivalent and may prefer the girl next store.
July 17, 2012 - 2:35pm
#25430
FUBM?
Yea, I agree with Pailin. If gold doesn't close the Globex over yesterday's Comex close then it is a failed FUBM, as far as I'm concerned.
I think closing Globex over $1591.60 would be a big loss of face for Bernanke. "Everyone knows" that the gold bugs are supposed to crap their pants and hide under the bed whenever the Master of the Universe moves his lips.
There's still time for a burst up before 5:15pm EST, but I guess it won't make it.
If that's the case, it seems we're still range bound. (I think Trader Dan has had some good commentary about this. So refreshing that one of the KWN crowd has something different to say than "the cartel is trapped". I cannot even get myself to listen to anything on KWN anymore -- I glance at the headlines, but I can't read or listen anymore.)
July 17, 2012 - 2:35pm
#25431
SilverWealth wrote:Like
Like trying to date a supermodel who is on crack and is sexually ambivalent and may prefer the girl next store.
The only thing worse than dating a supermodel is marrying one. Tom Brady should have rung up Richard Gere, Billy Joel or Johnny Depp before buying the ring :)
July 17, 2012 - 2:40pm
#25432
strange market today
I am not making any precipitous moves. I did close out my GME at the lows today to take some short profit but keeping the others. I also started a long in CMA and it has gone up very nicely today. Other positions not doing well with longs going down and shorts going up.
July 17, 2012 - 2:52pm
#25433
@Blackhawk,
I love that
@Blackhawk,
I love that story--talk about historic! The movie is going to be Death Cross 2012, starring Al Pacino as Rick Santelli.
Finally got myself positioned long NG. The free frack is over--time to start payin' fo' dat shit, now...
July 17, 2012 - 3:15pm
#25434
pailin wrote:
CNBS will now
CNBS will now repeat their story of today for the rest of the summer...QE3 has been 'hinted' for September. Ugh. The short game may be soon over, if not already. I speak not of reality but rather artificial market floor. I'm shifting gears back toward accumulation again in silver all S levels and selling same back all R levels.
I didn't get to watch all of the testimony/Q&A, but from what I did watch, it seemed like he was very specific about his words in terms of NOT mentioning any sort of stimulus or "expansion of the Fed's balance sheet."
July 17, 2012 - 3:36pm
#25435
Reeks of 2010
July 17, 2012 - 3:50pm
#25436
Deluxe186 wrote:
This whole
This whole thing reeks of 2010 all over again. http://marketmontage.com/2012/07/17/this-sums-it-up-david-tepper-attitude-reigns-supreme/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+marketmontage%2Fxyz+%28Market+Montage%29
Cue SW!
July 17, 2012 - 3:51pm
#25437
a lot of GLD selling by HFTs
July 17, 2012 - 3:52pm
#25438
ho hum
Where are we sitting in the PMs... round a bout or just below yesterday's open? *Yawn*
The last handful of utterances from on high have brought about a jiggeldy-piggeldy at the time, followed in the next day or so by heavy selling. I still maintain that if the selling comes and the PMs don't break and hold below the lows, the bulls are gaining strength. Stating the obvious really.
Hey Rico, who's Charlie Brown?
July 17, 2012 - 4:02pm
#25439
Bought tiny 1581.6 a few
Bought tiny 1581.6 a few seconds before NYSE close. Couldn't help myself :)
July 17, 2012 - 4:03pm
#25440
csquared13 wrote:
pailin
CNBS will now repeat their story of today for the rest of the summer...QE3 has been 'hinted' for September. Ugh. The short game may be soon over, if not already. I speak not of reality but rather artificial market floor. I'm shifting gears back toward accumulation again in silver all S levels and selling same back all R levels.
I didn't get to watch all of the testimony/Q&A, but from what I did watch, it seemed like he was very specific about his words in terms of NOT mentioning any sort of stimulus or "expansion of the Fed's balance sheet."
That's correct. He said nothing. CNBS is speculating that he said a lot. All hype to "explain" the mid-day ramp back up.
July 17, 2012 - 4:07pm
#25441
snap
Bought tiny 1581.6 a few seconds before NYSE close. Couldn't help myself :)
Also got a little 27.26 silver.
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CNBS will now repeat their story of today for the rest of the summer...QE3 has been 'hinted' for September. Ugh. The short game may be soon over, if not already. I speak not of reality but rather artificial market floor. I'm shifting gears back toward accumulation again in silver all S levels and selling same back all R levels.
Two other thoughts - I would not call today a FUBM for gold and silver, more like a weak limp back to test overnight highs (and fail). I'm sure there's buying going on in there but the shorts aren't even close to being on the run like 2011. Much caution is still warranted. Second thought -- what will happen the next time a daily R3 is crossed? If it's all given given up the next 18-36 hours...then everything bullish I just wrote is moot.
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