ES follows USD index one shot up one plunge down, both in a straight line. There are reports stating that USD index is at all time high, higher than 2009 which often correlated to USD medium term correction. I am guessing than Ben is going to disappoint everyone providing more volatility to both USD and ES tomorrow morning.
Pailin's Trading Corner
July 17, 2012 - 1:48am
#25402
SW as expected
July 17, 2012 - 1:49am
#25403
SW as expected
correction .. USD sentiment index is higher than 2009, the index itself is of course lower.
July 17, 2012 - 2:17am
#25404
Ain't that the truth
Like redwood says, Bernanke is testifying before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow.
It will probably slam up and down no matter what the final direction, so get ready for a scary ride either way.
I'll be in a very small long with a relatively wide stop for the fun and games. If the heat comes on (down) and we don't break the bottoms, it will be one more feather in the cap of the bulls.
July 17, 2012 - 7:58am
#25405
Today's economic
Today's economic calendar:
7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales
8:30 Real Earnings
8:30 Consumer Price Index
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 Treasury International Capital
9:15 Industrial Production
10:00 Hearing: 'The Semiannual Monetary Policy' (Bernanke)
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
So the gnome actually speaks at 10:00.
July 17, 2012 - 8:24am
#25407
I like S3 on each for longs
I like S3 on each for longs today. Did not bite on the short when I should have. SWEET move for those that did :)
July 17, 2012 - 10:14am
#25408
Being long gold ahead of the
Being long gold ahead of the Fed reminds me of Charlie Brown trying to kick the football with Lucy...
July 17, 2012 - 10:47am
#25409
Corn crop failure
I got a call from a friend this morning who is riding from Harrisburg, PA to Sedalia, MO for a BMW rally. He's just east of St, Louis this morning. Looking from bike level on many back roads and stopping occasionally to check out the crop, he said it is dried up and curling, worse at the bottom than at the top. It was in that condition all the way from VA to MO. We have had no rain here and daily highs 95 to 105 in the forecast. No rain. I have to go to Iowa this weekend to a wedding and will walk around some in the real corn belt.
Rain won't help much here at this point, although it may affect trader sentiment. If it rains, I will buy the dip. For me the issue is this market is irrational price action, the battle of greed and fear. I suppose the price action may parallel what happened in the last really bad year, 1988.
July 17, 2012 - 10:55am
#25410
Thank you bernak
bought some DSLV right before the Fed started yappin'.
Decided to check what was up in my accounts less than an hour later, saw 3.35% gains, already sold.
Damn, it's gonna be a good day. :P
Already have those USLV orders at the ready, in case they hit S3
July 17, 2012 - 10:58am
#25411
Morning Spin - The Ultimate Death Cross
The S&P 500 is nearing the ultimate death cross, he (Albert Edwards) said, not just any death cross, where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average, a technical indicator oft-watched by chartists for its ability to herald further declines in an asset price.
No, this is the ultimate death cross, where the 50-month moving average, presently at 1,152, drops through the 200-month moving average, currently 1,145.
.... he also says: “Japan suffered a monthly death cross in 1998 and 14 years later we are still in the firm embrace of the bear.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/64796426-cfe4-11e1-bcaa-00144feabdc0.html#axzz20tFOwVVW
July 17, 2012 - 10:58am
#25412
Santelli v. The Bernank
Santelli says The Bernanke testimony is the smoking gun proving liebor manipulation and the Fed's tacit approval of the banks reporting lower numbers. The Bernanke apparently feels its no big deal. Sen. Menendez seems to get it now, and is grilling the gnome pretty well.
July 17, 2012 - 11:10am
#25413
Gold Opium
here is a classic subscription series linked by a friend
the only thing he has to sell is Hope.
http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/2012/07/this-major-fed-move-is-abou...
if your trading against the government and also hoping the government is going to help you out with QE or whatever and your trade is entirely dependent on that, you have serious psychological flaws in trading approach imo which are best addressed in that context. Hopium is highly addictive and just as dangerous as crack imo.
July 17, 2012 - 11:16am
#25414
Do we get to $24.25?
61.8 retrace of the 2008 low? Sounds nice if the 26 stops get flashed. Below there is where I get worried.
July 17, 2012 - 11:25am
#25415
@SW
You are absolutely correct. Look at the power it has over Obama's supporters and is now being sucked up by Romney's supporters. Nothing will change. Don't get in between a junkie and his crack.
July 17, 2012 - 11:37am
#25416
Banality of Evil
The ugly little gnome is classic example of what Hannah Arendt I believe called the 'banality of evil'. When it comes it comes in packages that are so pedestrian that the general mass misses the event,the criminal and the heist all at once. The innocuous figure remains in fact endlessly free in his pursuit of high crime even to the extent of believing that his crimes are acts beneficence.
In any other life the Bernank would at best be managing a Burger King and counting receipts over a greasy bag of fries and a cancer soda.
July 17, 2012 - 11:46am
#25417
Silver Premiums
Silver premiums (based on Tulving) definitely seem low.
I haven't seen the JM bars or maples this cheap for a very long time!
The one exception is the 90% coins which went from below spot a few months ago to 55c over spot.
- JM 100 oz bars: spot + 49c
- ASE monster box: spot + $2.39
- 90% "junk": spot + 55c
- Maple monster box (opened): spot + $1.49
(This is not a Tulving commercial, this is just meant as a market indicator.)
July 17, 2012 - 11:53am
#25418
anyone buy LNG today? just
anyone buy LNG today? just curious. i am not holding any at the moment.
July 17, 2012 - 11:59am
#25419
AN FUBM today would be pretty interesting.
I'm not sure of the last time that we got a big FUBM on a Bernanke testimony day. These down moves on testimony days usually last into the Globex close.
That would be interesting if we got one today.
We got a pretty strong FUBM last Thursday.
To me, it would be an interesting indicator of a lessoning of fear of Bernanke on the part of gold/silver longs.
We'll have to see what happens. It's starting to look like an FUBM.
July 17, 2012 - 12:17pm
#25420
LNG buy order
at 12.20 limit. prolly wishful thinking.
July 17, 2012 - 12:20pm
#25421
Titus Andronicus wrote:
To
To me, it would be an interesting indicator of a lessoning of fear of Bernanke on the part of gold/silver longs.
I was thinking the same thing...
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