Happy or Terrible?

Let's hope for a "Happy Tuesday".

Just a few items for you to review. First, this great article from Alisdair Macleod which covers some of the same territory that Trader Dan plowed over the weekend. http://alasdairmacleod.blogspot.com/2012/07/managed-money-positions-on-us-futures.html

Speaking of Trader Dan, he was talking about the grains today: http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/07/grain-index-approaching-2008-peak.html. And so was ZeroHedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/putting-corn-harvest-drought-and-flood-context

Santa's pal Eric has written an interesting piece where he discusses several of the CoT trends that we've been covering ad nauseam here. http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.ca/2012/07/this-major-fed-move-is-about-to-create.html

And the LIEbor scandal continues to grow. HEEHEEHAHA! Just for fun, here are two articles which mention two of the primary forces behind The Evil Empire, JPM and HBSC. 

Lastly, one final bit of fun from FreedomFest. While I was strolling the floor on Thursday, I ran into Kerry Lutz of the Financial Survival Network. He asked if I could spare a few minutes and I gladly obliged. Here's the link to the 5-6 minute interview. http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2012/07/turd-ferguson-everyone-should-be-buying-precious-metals/

That's it for now. Regardless of paper price shenanigans, I hope you personally have a Happy Tuesday!

TF

Comments

Keg's picture

Lack of outrage over LIBOR scandal

There seems to be a lack of outrage over LIBOR scandal.  Why?  This is huge.  It involved central banks.  For me, I think it is one of two things or maybe a combination:

- My anger over Obama's comments about people that create businesses did not do it themselves is so great that I don't have any left over for the LIBOR scandal at the moment.

- The LIBOR scandal is really no big deal, just business as usual.  I have become immune to getting upset at being screwed by the bankers since it is constant. 

NancyDrew's picture

Oh, and Speaking of Chickens...

I REALLY want to own some again. Unfortunately they are against zoning here (although it wouldn't stop me) if I had the time to care for the chicks before they're grown enough to put outside. Should I no longer be employed in the future I would get some & put them at my rural property near here (my kids live there). We ordered some chicks from McMurray Hatchery back in 1979 (unfortunately roosters were included - sure learned from that mistake). Built a corral in the basement with  heat light. Have to care for them, cleaning the pasting from their little butts, keeping water clean & watching for the stronger ones pecking the weaker. We put pine tar on the bleeding areas that were pecked at & it seemed to help.

But something happened to the chickens that remains a mystery still today. One night they did not come back to the coop to roost. The next morning we noticed chicken feet sticking out of the ground inside the fenced area. The rest of the birds were attached & buried with feet sticking out!! No signs of animals getting in, no signs of struggles, no feathers around, no anything. It was awful & I still wonder what could possibly have happened.

SIlverbee's picture

The first of Many

This is off topic which I apologize for but way back when discussing prepping someone suggested a device for boiling water outside, like a camping stove. It was metallic, with a conical bottom and had legs that twigs etc could be put under to create the heat. Does anyone have a link, I did really try to find it on google images. 

exiledbear's picture

Guess they're not yet scared enough to print

I find it absolutely criminal that bitcoins would hit the $9 handle overnight (and finally we see a correction) but manages to stay above the $8 handle today.

And gold? What does it do? It goes down. I suspect it'll end the day close to unch, but this active suppression is disgusting.

Well, my warning to the cartel is this - Let gold float or watch bitcoin gain even more traction. And bitcoin is all kinds of worse from your perspective than gold could ever be. You're going from the frying pan into the fire and you don't even know it.

SaratogaPrepper's picture

SIlverbee

Was it possibly a Kelly Kettle?

https://kellykettle.com/

I have one of these (actually both the large and small) and they are great.

NancyDrew's picture

@ Keg

Those comments by obama angered me, too. How dare he! We started our business with nothing but the ability to do manual labor & a manual typewriter at our kitchen table.

OK, I'm done. Sorry to be OT.

DayStar's picture

Berneke

Berneke is supposed to speak at 10.  The markets have been treading water this morning, but when he speaks they always hit the markets.  I wonder if they will use Berneke's speech to try to take it below 26 and take out the stops waiting there.  We will see if the buyers of size are up to the challenge.

DayStar

Beastly Stack's picture

All in....

POSX looks terrible and I say we are in for a big selloff and lift in the metals as the DOC speaks!

Dr G's picture

Terrible is the verdict. Just

Terrible is the verdict.

Just another day of nobody buying the metals in Comex and everybody selling metal that doesn't even exist.

I'm starting to get peeved now, because if they are going to lower the prices they should just go balls to the wall and do it--none of this prancing around $27 for weeks on end. Let's see some $25 action. Sheesh.

EDIT: I like Beastly's comment above mine. The question is, what is a lift in the metals? I don't want a 40 cent rise in silver. It doesn't mean anything. I think this is all noise until something major happens.

MrSteed's picture

Silverbee: Wood burning stove

Is this the one?: http://stovetec.net/us/

I think it's the same one I ordered.   I'm not sure because I just stored it away in its box when I got it, but basically it sounds the same.

SIlverbee's picture

No but nice bit of kit! It

No but nice bit of kit! It had a conical base I guess for increasing surface area and a more basic construction. The kindling would be just around the base rather than inside you could probably just stand it on the fire. 

Beastly Stack's picture

Oh My

An initial slap,that's all!

Love listening to his voice crack with nerves.He is shitting in his pants bc he knows what we are in for.

Dr G's picture

Link for Bernanke testimony,

Link for watching the Bernanke report, happening right now: 

http://www.c-span.org/Events/Fed-Chairman-Goes-Before-Senate-Cmte-for-Mo...

Dr G's picture

Chairman Johnson is a

Chairman Johnson is a frickin' retard. A complete bumbling idiot. Fire his ass out of office.

WHO ELECTS THESE IDIOTS!?!?!

Dr Jerome's picture

Speaking of chickens

We had a similar experience with chickens. We ordred tw dozen from McMurray. Most lived. most were hens. they had just started laying when my daughter, one day, spent time in the coop and forgot to latch the gate. the next morning, our beloved dachound mix (sweet dog) had show his true nature by massacring 17 of the hens. chickens, blood and feathers all over the back yard with our proud dog grinning at us and wagging his tail.

My explanation for buried chickens with feet sticking out of the ground?

Edit:

AU lower highs and lower lows since the Bernanks' event at 10am. Support at 1580-ish so far.

Dagney Taggart's picture

@Nancy

What is the difference between a bank that pays you nothing to hold your money and you holding your money and paying yourself nothing? I hope that helps. They need you. Remember that. Make them earn your business.

They knew exactly what they were doing. They understood that they were systemic necessities so they stopped making decisions as a free-standing business like you and I must. And even now, they are still wearing puppy-dog eyes and trying to look like the victims of unintended consequences. Humanity has seen it before.

I personally will not have another cent held more than 24 hours in any bank until at least 10 executives are publicly prosecuted for the 2008 crisis. Real people have been hurt. Real families have been wrecked. Real people have lost their real businesses and houses. Real people have committed suicide. And either by conquest or consent, this will have real consequences for banks.

Groaner's picture

Criminals at work again

Nothing to see here, keep moving

Beastly Stack's picture

Turn It Off

I just may walk away from my screen for the day.This is all just so flat out stupid!

The markets except the metals all have been acting like QE is coming and I think we all know the groundwork has been laid for it.

All the jibberish that the fed members have spit out over the past couple of months and the economic # have been putrid as of late and getting worse!

If the metals get whaled today,it just proves what a fools game I am in!

I'm confident today will be a very positive development in both gold and silver!

Number 47's picture

A word of warning on credit unions.

Been real busy of late, no time to update. Needless to say, Ulsterbank is still not working. Balances are slowly going back to normal and I have had fees refunded but transactions are still hit and miss and my wife was paid late this week. We are up to date with our wages now though but it is impossible to keep track of payments and deposits.

As for credit unions. I hear a few people recommending them as an alternative to banks. There is a fatal flaw in this premise. Credit unions keep your money on deposit at (you guessed it) a bank.

We have problems now with my wifes account at our local credit union because they bank with Ulsterbank. They have no idea about the balances available to them and were suffering the same issues as we were, deposits not showing, payments not being made. Luckily I have an account in a different credit union which banks with a different bank but just be wary, if the banks go, they are taking the credit unions deposits with them. crying

Hondo's picture

Silver bee

Check out the " rocket stove". Sorry no link but, someone posted it a good while back.

dudestacker's picture

Thanks Xty

Yup, that's the baby I've been using since we inherited from my wife's grandparents.

They called it a ricer, but when I looked for the image I learned it was called chinoise.

thurd aye's picture

Continuing the classroom

Continuing the classroom theme, how many here want hyperinflation? Hands up.

" The hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic during the years 1922 and 1923 is an

example of a possible endgame for a country that spends much more than it earns. The

German mark-U.S. (gold) dollar exchange rate rose from 430 in 1922 to about

433,000,000,000 by 1924. If such a hyperinflation unfolded in the U.S. today and if gold

moved with the inflation rate, then the price of gold would exceed $163 trillion U.S.

dollars."  surprisewink

http://theautomaticearth.org/Finance/report-qthe-golden-dilemmaq.html

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Disaggregated Gold COT

My thanks to Watcher, RL999, S Roche, and Rico for helping me to do some research on this-  you folks are really the best and your willingness to help a fellow Turdite was most appreciated! My man S Roche in particular was a great help, finding articles and sources to check out...  gracias amigo!

For background, this all started when I tried to analyze the significance of the Norcini article stating that Swap Dealers were now net long Gold, and that this unusual situation was a positive sign for PM prices.  I promised to share what I learned, so here it is:

First of all, the Alasdair McLeod article Turd lead with today summed it up better than I could-  this was basically the piece of research I wanted to do.  It is a great read, but I had some additional thoughts when I was checking this stuff out.  Check out this Disaggregated COT chart for gold over the last year...  first thing to notice is that the Swap Dealers were also briefly net long October (18th) 2011, and that didn't seem to indicate much of anything, price-wise:

Second, on the middle chart look at the positions for Small Specs- they have been more or less flat (at slightly net long) for essentially the entire time, meaning that while price has declined they lost money but nothing extraordinary...  the small fish may be considered dumb money, but they have not been crushed by any means.

So who has really had to puke their positions?  Managed money...  just prior to the top they were net long +220,000 contracts and after the drop from $1900 to $1550 they have been bled dry and are now long just 80,000 contracts... in other words, they have puked a 140k long contracts over the last year as price declined.  Ouch.

Who bought these?  The mysterious "Other Reporting" (and who exactly this is was very unclear... deliberately?) went from flat to net long by 40,ooo contracts, so they bought while Managed Money sold.  Swap dealers have gone from very short ( -100,ooo contracts at one point) to now basically net flat, so they have absorbed a large portion of the positions that Managed money puked out over the last year.  Additionally, the Producers who are supposedly hedging are still short, but are 50k less short than they were a year ago.

So what does this mean for price today?  No freaking clue.  The Swap Dealers seem to be the smart money here, while the Producers still control the bulk of the market through their shorts.  I will say this, though...  It looks to my untutored eye that there is, realistically, very little left to squeeze out of this market (if you are a big boy and control the market).  So that leaves us with 2 options:  Either they are getting ready to go long and let things rip to the upside, OR they are happy just to suppress price overall (hence serving their FED masters) and make money front-running the up and down churn.

That is my take, anyway. 

notmessenger's picture

blue bird: How much cash to have on hand and where to keep it

The amount to have on hand that I have always seen is between 3 and 6 months worth of living expenses.  This amount allows you to weather a span of unemployment.  It also allows you to weather a protracted bank holiday.  Now if we're talking about a situation worse than these, where there is a prolonged breakdown in the services normally provided by your municipality, etc then the math isn't quite as "clean" as at that point how much will you have to pay for some food or water that you didn't prep supplies adequately before an event happened?  It is hard to know what things will cost or what you will need so it's hard to know how much to save.  On the other hand, me personally in that situation, I am no longer concerned with making sure that my Netflix bill gets paid or my water bill (since we're without its service, right?).  This means that your dollar needs are fluid because even though it was part of your 3-6 months of living expenses, some expenses disappear while others crop up and/or increase in cost.  I have nothing concrete to point you to in this regard, just my thought process about the same situation.  I would aim for at least 3 months of living expenses as cash-on-hand and then creep upwards from there if you have the need and/or feel as if you should.

Regarding where to store the cash-on-hand there are two primary considerations.  The first is the "on-hand" part.  You need to be able to get access to these funds when a situation arises.  This means NOT storing it in a safety deposit box or any other mechanism associated with a bank.  This tends to then seem as if you should keep it on your premises or any other location you have control over.  This leads to the second consideration of safety.  Safety from theft and loss (due to fire, flooding, etc).  Put it in a safe if you have one.  Get a small, portable fireproof/resistant safe to put it in.  Bury it somewhere.  Hide it in your attic.  Baseboards.  Put it wherever you feel comfortable that it is safe and not likely to be walked off with.  Of course the number one thing to remember is a military terms: OPSEC - Operational Security.  Or maybe better from WWII: Loose Lips Sink Ships.  In other words, if no one knows you have something of worth to steal your chances of having someone intentionally targeting you to steal this worth should drop to virtually zero.  This does not mean you won't or can't be robbed (or lose it in a fire) it just means that it is likely you won't be specifically targeted for what you are storing in your house.

ClinkinKY's picture

"Yutes" (Apologies to Joe Pesci)

God, or someone, help us.

Further video. Check out the "reporter's" act at beginning of video.

http://www.news4jax.com/news/Flash-mob-causes-havoc-at-Walmart/-/475880/15568130/-/vt1vdlz/-/index.html

Dr G's picture

My wife and a bunch of her

My wife and a bunch of her friends got together and made rocket stoves one evening. Really cool little gizmos.

At this point I'm praying they hit all the stops and get us some $25 handle silver and $1525 gold. I don't think it will happen, though.

Keg's picture

Safe banks

I've moved most of my accounts to a credit union.  Might be a false sense of security but it just seems safer than commercial banks. 

Wallace Hartley's picture

@ Murphy

Nice piece from Rickards on Derivatives lie...

Derivatives Should Be Banned From Financial Markets

By James Rickards

July 16, 2012

The idea that the financial products known as derivatives pose a danger to the financial system is nothing new. Commentators have been pointing this out for years. Most famously, Warren Buffett referred to derivatives as "time bombs" and financial "weapons of mass destruction." Recently a complex derivatives trade caused over $5 billion in losses at J.P. Morgan.

Derivatives are bets between two parties that are made today with a payoff in the future based on the value of some stock, bond, or index. One party will profit if the reference security or index goes up in value and the other party will profit if it goes down. These bets usually settle up every three months based on value at that time, and then a new calculation period begins. There are many variations on this basic pattern, but almost all derivatives involve some form of a bet in which gains and losses are calculated and settled-up periodically.

If derivatives are as dangerous as the commentators suggest, why are they permitted? If they are such a threat to the financial system, why does the size of derivatives bets continue to grow? The answers have to do with several myths the big bank derivatives players have created. These myths are false and distract interested parties from doing what needs to be done to ban derivatives. It's time to demolish these myths once and for all.

Myth No. 1: Derivatives break up risk into parts and allow the pieces to be put into strong hands best able to absorb losses. Financial transactions do involve multiple risks. Even a simple loan can have interest rate risk, credit risk, and foreign exchange risk. The original idea behind derivatives was that these risks could be repackaged into separate financial instruments. In the simple loan example, one party could absorb the interest rate risk, another could absorb the credit risk, and still another could absorb the foreign exchange risk. Since each party specialized in a certain type of risk, it could offer the best prices so that the entire package would be cheaper to the customer than having a single bank absorb all of the risk on its books.

The problem with this simple view is that most derivatives do not derive from an original loan or investment, but are created exclusively to make new bets. Instead of moving risk into strong hands, derivatives actually create risk out of thin air. Risk is not being reduced by derivatives, it is growing exponentially.

Myth No. 2: Derivatives allow markets to get valuable price information about the underlying security or index on which the derivative is based. This process of getting market information from actual trading is called "price discovery." This rationale is heard frequently in the credit default swap market—basically bets on whether a company or country will go bankrupt. Supporters say that prices in the credit default swap market provide good information about the financial health of countries in distress such as Greece or Spain.

This explanation ignores the fact that such price information has always been available from the underlying bonds themselves. The market doesn't need credit default swaps to tell it Greece is in trouble. The market in Greek bonds shows directly that prices are falling and borrowing costs are going up and that Greece is in financial distress.

In fact, the actual bond market is a much better indicator of financial health than the swap market because bonds are widely held by a large number of investors, while the credit default swap market is tightly controlled by a small number of major bank dealers who set prices in a nontransparent way. The credit default swap market is much easier to manipulate than the underlying bond market and therefore it's easier to create a sense of panic which often benefits the dealers in this kind of credit insurance. Derivatives to not improve price discovery, they make it easier to manipulate markets.

Myth No. 3: Bank management has derivatives risks under control using mathematical models that capture the complex interaction of factors embedded in derivatives trades. This view is laughable on its face given the continual series of notorious derivatives fiascoes from Long-Term Capital Management to AIG to J.P. Morgan and many others.

Yet, this myth is pernicious at a deeper level because many bank managers actually believe it. They have constructed elaborate management tools based on empirically false assumptions about the frequency and severity of bad events and the correlations among them. Risk managers sometimes acknowledge these limitations but then say their tools are "better than nothing." This is false too. Bad tools are not better than nothing. They lead to bad investments with the taxpayers picking up the losses every time things go wrong. It would be more honest to admit what we don't know and limit derivatives until the state of the art improves.

The next time some derivatives proponent says that derivatives reduce risk, increase transparency, and are well hedged, stop them in their tracks and ask if they believe in tooth fairies, Easter bunnies and leprechauns. Actually, it's safer betting on the leprechauns than in the soundness of modern derivatives finance. Since markets seem not to have learned from past disasters, one should expect worse to come.

http://97.65.137.90/244901/derivatives-should-be-banned-from-financial-markets-by-james-rickards

Dr G's picture

@Clinkin, amazing video.

@Clinkin, amazing video. Super depressing. I don't care what color they are, they are trash. I'm tired of trash in my life. I want them to leave me alone. I don't want to support them anymore.

And further, where the hell is AL SHARPTON or JESSE JACKSON!?! They know they can't control this trash either.

brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother's picture

couldn't be more clear

silly and manipulated markets.

bernanke has said it before (more cryptically, yes) that he has no problems with more "qe" if deemed necessary to offset either deflation or a too sluggish job recovery.  

again today he said the same - but even more clearly.  .   

"qe" is coming.   where i had nagging doubts before - i don't any longer.   anyone think the job recovery is going anywhere soon?    anyone think there aren't going to be more deflationary forces?   the bernanke even poo pooed inflation indicators at this time as being low and steady - meaning he thinks the economy could handle the rise in inflation if flooded with more $.

he alluded to the fed being split - but that he was on the side of the easers.

qe will come - and probably sooner than later..

* should add:  he said at the "suggestion of deflation" - not after deflation is evident.

so if one is to believe his words (i know, i know) it should be fairly soon.

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