Getting Real Close

Monday, July 16, 2012 at 1:27 am

As we get set to begin a new week, I can't shake the feeling that we are getting real close. Close to finishing this basing pattern. Close to breaking higher. Close to an explosive move.

First, just a couple more items from FreedomFest. Friday morning I ran into Steve Moore of the Wall Street Journal. What a nice guy! I just walked up to him and struck up a conversation. Though he didn't know me from Sean Connery, we quickly hit it off and he has promised to come into Turdville for a podcast in August. Steve Forbes is an unbelievably nice guy, too. The guy's a billionaire yet he courteously took time to visit and pose with anyone who approached him. On the flip side...I'm walking out Friday, happy and relaxed. Not a cloud in the sky got the sun in my eye and then I see him...Prechter. Right in front of me, being interviewed by Reason TV. I wanted to freaking tackle him. Just bolt onto the "set" and barrel into him like I was a Free Safety. Lay him out like I was Jack Tatum and he was Darryl Stingley. Revenge for all the poor saps he's bilked out of subscription fees for all these years. I paused, considered my options and then moved on. He's not worth it. Not worth the trouble and not worth the hassle. That said, I really wanted to flatten the guy. Badly.

So, anyway, it's going to be a wild week. First of all, we've got the situation in Syria coming to a head. The next 48-72 hours look very volatile. Watch crude closely. Why, you ask? Remember that Syria and Iran are reasonably close allies. Any NATO move against Syria will likely generate some type of sympathy aggression from Iran. Maybe the mining of the Straits? We'll see. IF crude begins to move through $88 and then $90, then a move toward $100 will be imminent. Again, watch the headlines very closely.

And, boyohboy, is it hot as a firecracker in the U.S. heartland. Check out these two links. The first is a "drought monitor" from the University of Nebraska. Let the animation load and watch the progression. Yikes!

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/12_week.gif

And here's the next 8 days of computer weather models. The big circle that forms over the Midwest is a nasty, hot high pressure system that will bring scorching temperatures and dry weather to farm country. Got DAG?

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ready2-bin/javaanim.pl?id=GFS&mdl=grads/gfs&file=panel1&nplts=31&width=800&height=700

Which brings us to the metals. Last week's CoT reversed out nearly all of the Cartel shorting that was evident in the previous report. Though we remain mired in our 10-week consolidation bases, the time is rapidly approaching where price will catapult higher, break out and surge forward. First, read this from Trader Dan. As you know, I've gotten to know Dan quite well so I can assure you that he is NOT prone to KWN-type hyperbole. That said, please read and ponder this: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/14_An_Absolutely_Stunning_Development_In_The_Gold_Market.html.

It is simply a matter of time now before gold and silver break higher. Remain patient and please utilize this time to add to your physical stack. The ability of The Bullion Bank Cartel to manipulate price is being curtailed. The LIEbor scandal being simply the latest wound to their seeming invincibility. The Truth is on our side and we are winning.

Have a great Monday!

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Comments

Will keep you posted

Submitted by cpnscarlet on July 16, 2012 - 9:06am.

@Gramp - One of the interesting comparisons I will be commenting on during the summer is the difference between the B-Box and Mom&Pop. As part of my maintenance job, I deal with two primary "suppliers", the local True Value and Lowe's. We have a "house account" at True Value and a business charge card at Lowe's. As time goes on, I'll make some comments about the differences in dealing with each.

cpnscarlet re complaints and prepping

Submitted by Xty on July 16, 2012 - 9:09am.

I wish the people who complained would post something of significance instead. I could have posted that Gold is Money, but I think most have heard my mantra by now. I have always enjoyed the weekend break, and the chance it gives for us to get to know one another better.

I am aiming for 3 months for prepping, at the moment, outside of the PM question. I just don't do total disaster well, and that story of the guy who actually killed his family to save them should hit home for us all. We have our hippie van, and that will just have to do for the bug out. I think the picture of what will occur is so different according to where one lives that it is very difficult to compare strategies. I live in a 'city' but it is a peanut compared to most and we are surrounded by empty land all around, even in Ontario, theoretically the engine of Canada. I am sure I would feel very different if I lived in Detroit.

Gold and Silver action

Submitted by Big Buffalo on July 16, 2012 - 9:17am.

nice to see metals will start in the positive this morning.

What's even better is higher lows in G&S.

In reply to ChiHustler's attached article of 1477 being in the picture for gold; yes, the charts show bearish, but sometimes we have to look at charts then looks at current global events. Looks to me like more money printing in Europe, China, US.

@cpnscarlet: even in the desert, one could build a greenhouse and grow very effectively. Gardening is fun. If someone sees it as work, I would not encourage them to do so.

Close to staying up all

Submitted by recaptureamerica on July 16, 2012 - 9:34am.

Close to staying up all night...

Monedas is watching you .... yes YOU !

Submitted by Monedas on July 16, 2012 - 9:37am.

Don't cave in to the Cartel .... they will laugh their asses off if they can panick us "Bible Thumpin' Hicks" to sell our Gold at 2,3 or 4 times what we paid for it .... and forego the 3,000+ % increase that's coming soon ! Remember, they can buy all they want for free by printing .... so let 'em pay what it's really worth .... don't be cheap to yourself ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad To Thine Own Self Do Nottest Be Cheap !

katie rose

Submitted by jonoso on July 16, 2012 - 9:40am.

here in some of the farm fields i frequent here in north carolina have converted from tobacco to corn and the corn looks very healthy, we have had extremely hot weather but we hav also had strong storms and rain intermingled i haven't had a chance to ask them why the big conversion this year but i think it has to do with ethanol production regionally but they may end up using this crop for other reasons .............................

All this day to day heavy metal stuff

Submitted by Patrancus on July 16, 2012 - 9:40am.

All this day to day heavy metal stuff maybe a non-factor, and I admit my insanity when it come to stacking and stashing a hoarder of the highest order, though if something real big is in the works, like constructing a diabolical plan to try and take out the Iranian nukes by US carriers in the gulf could sink the west's economic boat immediately, then BO has it his way or the gulag for all the malcontented patriots, only an anti-colonialist which he is, would salivate at such an opportunity to consolidate his control and power over the millions of sheeple standing in the factory lunch line for a portion of bread and gruel.

I guess I must be just a conspiracy nut of the highest order, to think anything so dark could be in the offing.

Singularity

Submitted by tmosley on July 16, 2012 - 9:42am.

A while back, I compiled a list of few technologies that I belive will greatly contribute to singularity which are already known. The future of humanity is indeed bright, if only the government would get out of the way.

1. Liquid Fluorine Thorium Reactors--these are fission reactors that use ultra cheap, ultra abundant thorium as fuel, burns nearly 100% of its fuel, and burn nuclear waste, is intrinsically safe (as it runs at atmospheric pressure, and the fuel is already liquid). For more info, go to youtube and search "LFTR in 5 minutes". They also have 16 minute and 2 hour versions. Currently halted by nuclear regulation.

2. Carbon allotropes--these are things like carbon nanotubes, graphene, and most recently aero-graphite. These materials have radical properties that will allow us to make super-materials, super-electronics, and in the last case, might just allow us to build cities that float in the sky. Proceeding full pace, slowed only by some concerns about regulation of new classes of materials and worker safety rules.

3. Selenium bio-catalysts--this is my own work. Selenium is a catalyst that produces short lived oxygen radicals, allowing a surface to be coated such that it becomes permanently immune to colonization by micro-organisms. Attached to certain peptides, selenium becomes a drug, one that can be targeted toward any protein, which means that you can kill any type of cell that you want, so long as you can find a unique binding site. This means you can end all transmissible disease (except prions), as well as cancer. Surface coatings are finding a foothold in the market with limited regulatory hurdles, drugs are expected to be nearly blocked due to high cost involved with vetting each and every targeting molecule.

4. 3D printers and associated technologies--these will allow manufactured goods to take on the same quality of abundance as we have seen with information since the birth of the internet. These days, even the poorest of people have unlimited access to practically any type of information. Soon, they will have access to any type of good as well. This is on track to make poverty moot. May potentially be blocked by internet regulation, but has not been specifically targeted YET.

@ Signularity ...

Submitted by Cottonbelt21 on July 16, 2012 - 9:52am.

... works by Kurzweil worthwhile (loosely what I would call a futurist) - a draft of his 'Age of Spiritual Machines' mid-90's reinforced the rise of the Internet 'pick & shovel' investment meme for me ... his more recent 'Fantastic Voyage' (named after old movie by same title) peers into where 'biotech' might be heading

@tmosley Re: Supressed Technologies

Submitted by Dagney Taggart on July 16, 2012 - 9:54am.

That is what should be talked about more. Things like Prepping are well-covered if one looks around hard enough. It's how to rebuild in the wake of all this that will determine if we learned anything at all.

I'm not allowed to use many superior, cheap, abundant materials in my work because of, if nothing else, the political fallout and the gravy-trains that would be disrupted.

Great list.

I don't think there's

Submitted by Patriot Family on July 16, 2012 - 9:57am.

I don't think there's anything wrong with storing one year of food. I think we can all agree there is very little chance of a total financial collapse. I've used an analogy in the past that's a little more realistic - the economy may go off the cliff, but it's going to hit a lot of small ledges on the way down that give us some sort of buffer against a worthless dollar. In that regard, storing a year of food away has it's benefits. You need to be prepared on multiple fronts.

Whoever in the government is responsible for signing off on inflation calculations ought to be taken out to the woodshed and shot for politicizing the process. We most certainly are seeing price increases in food at the finished product level. One of the trends my wife and I have been seeing is smaller quantities of food in the same size packaging. How can we tell? Well, we tend to buy the same off-the-shelf products for our own food preps, and there are several items that have had key ingredients (like chicken, for example) cut down markedly in the item and we have those items stored side by side on the same shelves. Either the package weight has been reduced, or the manufacturer has replaced "premium" ingredients it with less expensive filler ingredients. Otherwise, the price is just higher, by 10-15% over last year's prices. I would love to see food stores produce and average price comparison year-over-year for the same SKUs and push out that data at the same time the gov't reports inflation data...

Our first shipments of knives came in for our business (we started with stocking several models of Victorinox Swiss Army knives), and thankfully they seem to be selling well, so we are well on our way to diversifying our income stream and will be even better off if I can find full time employment. Anyone needs a good knife, get in touch and I'll send you a list!

Tmos

Submitted by murphy on July 16, 2012 - 9:59am.

Regarding 3D Tech. In this TED talk the guy talks of new technology assisting crime. He says they now have the ability to print 3D weapons and bullets. No need to smuggle them through the airport. Just go to your destination and print them.

Is this fear mongering? I don't know. But where there is smoke there is usually fire. So your statement about regulation is probably WAY understated.

http://www.ted.com/talks/marc_goodman_a_vision_of_crimes_in_the_future.h...

Meh, I don't see a reason why

Submitted by Dr G on July 16, 2012 - 10:05am.

Meh, I don't see a reason why anything should change near-term. We've been in a consolidating/downtrend pattern since Twist was announced last year. They recently said Twist will continue.

The only substantial and sustained moves I see in the metals will come a result of USD weakness. That's formal QE or a debt downgrade. USD is holding nicely above 83.

I'm expecting more of the same. It could go for a month or it could go for 6 months or a year.

Never underestimate their ability to manipulate the system and kick the can. It will only crush your hopes. And, let's face it, a STRONG move in silver at this point would take us to above $30. A measly $30. As in a full 40% lower than our highs of last year. No, I'm stacking but I'm also realistic.

Gold vs. Silver

Submitted by John Galt on July 16, 2012 - 10:05am.

Up until almost the middle of last year Silver was being touted by many as the "go to" investment for physical PM.

Max Keiser, for example, was shilling the "Buy Silver, Crash JPM" campaign and there were no shortage of people who were convinced that Silver prices were going to the moon. Today there are still Silver die hards who remain faithful to the cause, but more and more we are hearing of Gold as being the PM investment of choice.

It is significant that the BIS is looking to move Gold (not Silver) to being a tier 1 asset, and central banks everywhere seem to be now buying Gold (and not Silver, unless I'm missing something).

What are people's thoughts on this? Is Gold the true place to be? Is investment in Silver over hyped?

In the event of a major currency reset (which I believe is coming, although it will likely be a mostly digital currency IMHO with some token "gold backing" to give the illusion of credibility) it seems that Gold will be the primary PM that should get re-priced higher.

Silver, in theory, should tag along for the ride because based on historical record that is what it is supposed to do. However, history has also shown that when the Roman currency collapse happened that Silver disappeared from coinage for almost 300 years.

So maybe Gold blasts higher and leaves Silver behind.

Any thoughts?

what a nice morning here so far

Submitted by peckerwood on July 16, 2012 - 10:09am.

since the thread, unlike the metals, is not range bound...

no one person will ever remember everything, or live in a situation where they can prepare for all outcomes. so get with a group with a common goal, and varied skills, and varied preparations. lone wolves aren't going to make it. i suspect that relationships are being formed right here, right now in Turdville.

not all preparations reside in the physical realm. explore yourself and find yourself spiritually.

i am working on both. i am looking past the doom, looking forward to better days. one "hell" of a long cycle is coming to an end. but every end is a new beginning. that's all i got for now.

GLTA

Bitcoins keep making new highs in the meantime

Submitted by exiledbear on July 16, 2012 - 10:09am.

$7.70 and probably on its way to $8 soon.

I agree - at some point the primary trend will overrun their suppression of the gold and silver prices.

I finally caved and cashed

Submitted by Punk-Assets on July 16, 2012 - 10:09am.

I finally caved and cashed out our IRAs (wifey too) last week. We havent cont since 2005, instead buying metals. Fairly painless - we were with Morgan Stanley. Take a wild guess what im buying with the funds...lol

Crazy punk (if the friends and relatives thought I was nuts before theyre completely dumbfounded now) is now officially "all in".

Fugg em' I stopped warning them almost 2 years ago.

Riddle me this

Submitted by Senseosensei on July 16, 2012 - 10:20am.

We can be 120% informed and have all the dots connected...

And then what...

Being informed, knowing what will or can happen, will not solve it.

Preparing yourself and your family will not cut it when 20+ hungry guys with guns come for your food stack.

In other words, when do we stop being spectators and take the next step, to be activists.

Or are we all keep sitting in our little cozy homes waiting for Ron Paul or *cough* Romney to solve it all for us.

That's MY daily struggle.

More Nannyism!?!

Submitted by DaddyO on July 16, 2012 - 10:35am.

Here is an article on how the local .gov's are trying to fix a real problem with unreal solutions.

http://news.yahoo.com/calif-cities-eye-plan-seize-mortgages-190416716--f...

It just boggles the mind how wrongheaded the whole housing bubble was, is and will continue to be until things are allowed to correct without any .gov intervention.

Remember when you were young and your mom made you take some distasteful medicine?

If your reading this, it must have worked...

DaddyO

riddle me this

Submitted by Punk-Assets on July 16, 2012 - 10:36am.

I'm tired of worrying about it. So, I'm going fishing.

Big prep item completed!

Submitted by MrSteed on July 16, 2012 - 10:38am.

The Steed Manse, which we've been living in for about 15 years, can be a cold, drafty place. Built in the 20's, it has such wonderful conveniences as cabinets directly open to the outside air to keep our food cool. So, I finally looked into insulation. Discovering that the power company would subsidize around 35%, I finally pushed the green button. After a dusty week of the crew blowing in the insulation (it's basically recycled newspaper), the work is complete. The first good test is this morning. It's a cool 55 out and normally we'd wake up to the upper 60's in house and kick on some heat. The furnace usually would be going a good hour or so to hit 71-72. Today we woke up to a nice 75 deg house! No furnace at all. Not only will we be MUCH more comfortable, this looks to save us lots on our energy bills. I am very impressed with this particular prep....

UST10

Submitted by cpnscarlet on July 16, 2012 - 10:43am.

1.45 .... 1.45 ..... 1......4......5 ??????

Watching the start of the Isaiah 17 war?

Submitted by Jeremiah Jr on July 16, 2012 - 10:44am.

Your right Turd, with all the global attention on the Syrian situation, one wonders if we are not witnessing the start of an incredibly devastating war spoken of in the O.T.

Damascus, the Capital of Syria is one of the oldest, continuous, cities on the face of the earth. Damascus has never yet scene the destruction described in Isaiah 17. Which means this is yet future to us.

Isaiah 17 tells us several things;

1) Damascus is taken away from being city - completely destroyed and a "ruinous heap"

2) This destruction occurs in a single night - "And behold at eveningtide trouble; and before the morning he is not"

3) Israel is responsible for this destruction - "because of the children of Israel: and there shall be desolation"

It does take a Biblical scholar to see how this scenario could easily play out in the coming days. Assad gets back into a corner, uses conventional or chemical weapons against Israel trying to bring the rest of the Muslim countries into the fray on his side against a common enemy. Israel's response is to fulfill Isaiah 17.

I am not bashing Israel, just stating a scriptural fact that Isaiah 17 war is still in front of us and we may be watching it play out. You will find not bigger supporter of Israel than myself. I am also certain based on my knowledge of some of the posters here, their lurks a lot of anti-semitism within the ranks. Not trying to pick a fight with them, just stating the obvious.

This is not Armageddon, just another very bad war. Is Syria the 'trigger event' we have been looking for?

Full Text of Isaiah 17

    The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap.The cities of Aroer are forsaken: they shall be for flocks, which shall lie down, and none shall make them afraid. The fortress also shall cease from Ephraim, and the kingdom from Damascus, and the remnant of Syria: they shall be as the glory of the children of Israel, saith the Lord of hosts. And in that day it shall come to pass, that the glory of Jacob shall be made thin, and the fatness of his flesh shall wax lean. And it shall be as when the harvestman gathereth the corn, and reapeth the ears with his arm; and it shall be as he that gathereth ears in the valley of Rephaim.
   Yet gleaning grapes shall be left in it, as the shaking of an olive tree, two or three berries in the top of the uppermost bough, four or five in the outmost fruitful branches thereof, saith the Lord God of Israel. At that day shall a man look to his Maker, and his eyes shall have respect to the Holy One of Israel. And he shall not look to the altars, the work of his hands, neither shall respect that which his fingers have made, either the groves, or the images.
     In that day shall his strong cities be as a forsaken bough, and an uppermost branch, which they left because of the children of Israel: and there shall be desolation. Because thou hast forgotten the God of thy salvation, and hast not been mindful of the rock of thy strength, therefore shalt thou plant pleasant plants, and shalt set it with strange slips: In the day shalt thou make thy plant to grow, and in the morning shalt thou make thy seed to flourish: but the harvest shall be a heap in the day of grief and of desperate sorrow.
    Woe to the multitude of many people, which make a noise like the noise of the seas; and to the rushing of nations, that make a rushing like the rushing of mighty waters! The nations shall rush like the rushing of many waters: but God shall rebuke them, and they shall flee far off, and shall be chased as the chaff of the mountains before the wind, and like a rolling thing before the whirlwind. And behold at eveningtide trouble; and before the morning he is not. This is the portion of them that spoil us, and the lot of them that rob us. Isaiah 17:1-14

@Punk

Submitted by bam on July 16, 2012 - 10:51am.

>I'm tired of worrying about it. So, I'm going fishing.

Probably the best suggestion of the past 3 days or so.

Rooting for the Fed...

Submitted by Wallace Hartley on July 16, 2012 - 10:52am.

When it comes to a food crises, I have to admit that I'd be rooting for the Fed to be able to suppress the price (although they don't have a very good track record when it comes to compassion for humanity). So many correlations to the Great Depression happening today.

1) Financial crises rooted in Europe.

2) Stock market coming off "Bubbalicious" highs...confiscating 40%-50% of public's paper wealth and creating record returns for those with enough assets to weather the storm (check out the highest short-term return rates in stock market history. Hint: it was soon after the '29 crash).

3) Drought and food shortages. People seem to worry less about reforming the political landscape when they are too busy/pre-occupied with trying to feed their families and loved ones. By the way, the drought cycle is very predictable (every 7 years if memory serves) and therefore can be used as a policy tool for our corrupted gubmint. And yes, I do believe they are evil/desperate enough that they would be willing to exploit a food shortage in order to maintain the reigns of power and control..."You never want a serious crisis to go to waste!"---Rahm Emanuel

4) Unemployment at record levels. 20%-25% during the Great Depression and 20%-25% today according to SGS ( www.shadowstats.com ).

I'm sure there are many more...these are just off the top of my head. So nice to have this forum to discuss these topics and share ideas with like-minded, compassionate human beings. Believe me, this helps me to stay on track more than I otherwise would. Thanks Turd!

Murphey, That is harder to

Submitted by tmosley on July 16, 2012 - 10:53am.

Murphey,

That is harder to do. You can't make a gun out of all plastic. You could sinter it (maybe) and you would probably have to machine the barrel no matter what. Might be able to make a shotgun that way. You could even make the shells. But you would still have to insert the primer and powder manually.

Think of it as the T-1000. It can make knives, and stabbing weapons, but guns and bombs need chemicals and moving parts, and as such would require assembly to high spec. Like I said, it might be good enough for a shotgun, but not a pistol or rifle. And if you want to outlaw it on that premise, then you would have to outlaw machine shops as well, as you can certainly build a gun with a few simple tools there.

Exiled Bear,

I'm pretty sure that bitcoins were worth more than $20 a while back. As such, $8 is hardly a "new high".

Printing guns?

Submitted by Dr Jerome on July 16, 2012 - 10:55am.

Murphy,

I recently watched a TED video where a doctor showed how they are fabricating functioning kidneys and saving people's lives with this same technology. Seems like a workable gun would be easier.

Just to stay focused on metals, for some of our colleagues out there...

On AG, I would argue that the EE will not let AG rise above 28 before options expiration this Friday. There are a boatload of open call contracts waiting from 28.50 to 31. These calls will not be allowed to close in the money and let the little traders make some profit.

That's my copper penny (2 cents) for the day

"So if you want to keep

Submitted by Kid Salami on July 16, 2012 - 10:58am.

"So if you want to keep supporting those places.."

No Gramp, I don't "support" Tesco and Walmart - in fact, as it happens, pretty much every item of food I buy is from a local organic produce store and Tesco is only for Sunday night emergencies. And this costs me a fortune and I'm very happy with the situation. That wasn't the point of my post though, you obviously just saw "walmart" and your word-association rant mechanism kicked in.

Re: riddle me this

Submitted by Green Lantern on July 16, 2012 - 11:02am.

I might suggest the analogy of an out of control locomotive chugging around the tracks at 90mph. Gain more speed, heading right toward a immobilized tractor trailer on the tracks. What do you do? Get out of the way and preserve as many lifes as possible and stay clear of the inevitable. Same if somebody is drowning and your swimming skills are in question. Do you risk two lifes? You have to make the difficult calculations for yourself.

The conditions that are going to lead to high prices in the metals and a decline in our civilization, have been going on for years. The public has bought into the lies so pervasively that there is no stopping it. IMO. I don't see either goverment or the public waking until we've reach a critical juncture where there is no turning around.

It's doubtful (in my mind) that if Ron Paul was elected that he would be allowed or able to make all the changes necessary to change our course. To boot most of our collective investments are positioned in a way that bets on the inevitably of ever increasing stimulus, debasement of the dollar and the chance of a break down of our global economic systems. If Ron Paul gets elected and calls off all the stimulus, brings are troops home, rids us of the fed, I'll be at my local coin store selling my gold. I'd prefer that option but I'm not betting on that happening.

Now that you are prepped as much as you can be, the only thing you can do is go live your life and enjoy it. Make love, dance, sing, cook, write poetry, go fix a car, or make a tree house for your kids.