Pailin's Trading Corner

Long Au/Ag/Euro, short T Bond.

That's a very long spike/doji/dragon/whatever candle at the top of the 30 year (1M/1H) and it's been in an uptrend for 8-10 days, I'm short the Sep12 from 150.87.

It was Thursday last week that we dipped from 1575/27 to 1547/26.10 in the PMs and they are often hit hardest 12-36 hours after gnome speak.  Same again on both counts? I'm not feeling it, but that's what stops are for :)

Globex closed, 50 mins of respite before... yawn... the fun begins again.

But I'm happy with my little longs just now. Just waiting for resolution really, but I lose focus if I have no skin on it. Yep, Thursdays haven't been great, but Fridays have... except last week... and two weeks ago :)

I'm not knocking your system per se, I'm just more of a tide man myself.

glta

Blackhawk,

Great find. Just watched the video regarding US grain crops. This guy is spot on. He is not exaggerating about the crop losses, these yield reductions are unprecedented. We went from possibly of our biggest corn crop ever to one of the worst in just three weeks. I suspect the August crop report will reduce harvested acres as well as lower yields again. The information I have access to confirms what this man is saying.

The need to ration will continue to be the focus of the trade. I do not think many users, domestic or export, have that much new crop coverage on. So users should be there to buy the dips. Ethanol production is decreasing and corn exports are down. Other grains can be substituted for corn. But China wants our soybeans, not sure the price level where they slow down purchases. Not many alternatives for soybeans.

Maybe prices have done enough for now to slow down demand. May chop around hoping for rain. Without rain, this market should trade higher. Soybean market has the potential to be the biggest market ever.

Trade carefully. Everyone have a good weekend.

Thanks Pete.

thanks for that and sorry about Iowa and the corn Art.

Just bought the dip today and then sold at close. The big red candle at the top yesterday on high volume says a lot and is all I have to go by. Portends another strong leg down soon enough but I know nothing about trading this, just looking at the chart.

World getting increasingly wobbly.  PMs (particularly silver) are not a safe haven, but a risk asset, and their weakness is not so much manipulation, as a panic rush out of Euros into greenbacks.  Pretty much the exact opposite of the Pain Street fever dream.

The Fed cannot act with asset prices still so high--it is finally stuck between Scylla and Charybdis:  markets must first fall before they can be rescued, netting out to no gain.

The U.S. taxpayers' money burning a hole in the Great Satan's pocket will instead be thrown away on some hare-brained European "solution" (and soon...), which will have no real effect except to further poison the world economy.

Play defense! Protect your cash.

Oh, and buy them soybeans

My bean trades are limited to SOYB (an ETF) because I am trading my IRA. Maybe it's time to open an account that allows trades in options and futures. What would the strategy be. Bosse gave an idea about possible price moves to $17-18/bu, but what is the peak price month in our projection? if you look at the SOYB charts. you can see incredible price movement on report releases and sometimes a lot of price jockeying at the comex close. This makes some serious spikes (3pm July 9) and dips (3PM yesterday) on a minute to minute basis, enough to trip stop losses and/or sell limits. At a minimum, I need to get a better handle on max price movements and calendar/time of day events.

It might be easier to open a commodity brokerage with a dummied up PO box address. You couldn't get away with that on e-bay, but the crony commodities market security apparatus will allow that.

Rico/Blackhawk,

Good one Rico -  "the gun is always pointing at me!"

Hard to use the charts when the weather is involved. How can you trade a hint of rain in a 10 day forecast? 63c range in corn yesterday/ 70c in beans. Was that a key reversal yesterday off new contract highs and big volume?

I'm not smart enough to trade that, nor have the time a baby sit a position. Maybe a few quick day trades. Not sure how they get those topside price projections, maybe that's where the stats say price needs to be to ration the supply.

I'm not a big user of options, but read where some people are using the short term weekly puts as downside protection against long futures, keeping them rolled up on rallies.

You would really have to be focused to manage trading these markets.

I think users will be here to buy the dips, and USDA is likely to cut harvested acres on the next report. Yield is still trending lower.

Rico has a good recommendation:

"Play defense! Protect your cash."

Thank you Mr. Palin and everyone else who shares information and trading ideas.

I have learned a lot from everyone. This place is a wealth of information,

very little BS, and entertaining too. (thank you SW)

Will be leaving town for a few days next week with Mrs. Lomax. Will be lurking when I can.

Everyone have a great weekend.

I've been realizing over time that trading is like being a surgeon.  The decision to not act is harder than the decision to act.  For those who want to get in there and do something, just like traders, the exhaustion comes from inaction.  Sitting tight is painful for compulsive active types.

But when you make the decision to act it must clear headed, precise and timely, as they say with surgical precision.