Another Volatile Day Ahead?
As you go through the day today, keep in mind that the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting will be released at 2:00 pm EDT. Recently, they been releasing "headlines" at 12:30, too, so stay sharp. The pattern of 2012 has been to sell PM whenever anything gets posted by The Fed or The Bernank. Therefore, be cautious.
What I hope to do while I attempt to take some down time is to rehash some "Greatest Hits". I plan to re-post daily a blog/thread from the archives, both from TFMR and ATW. We'll get to that in a moment but first...
Following along on yesterday's theme, the USDA issued a crop report earlier this morning and it was a doozy.
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1046
If you don't want to pour through it, here's what ZH has to say:
And, of course, our own Grain Man "Art Lomax" is all over it, too. He's currently lurking in Pailin's Corner:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/188505#comment-188505
The weather in The Corn Belt is only forecast to deteriorate over the coming weeks and the heat wave is expected to begin anew next week. Yikes!
OK, so here is your re-post of the day. This one was originally filed at ATW back on 3/29/11. I must admit that the food price surge that I was writing about never quite materialized...yet. I was also incorrect in my theory that overt QE would continue past June. Regardless, it contains several points that are still relevant today. Namely:
- "Let's start with the grains because rising grain prices cause all sorts of inflation. Not only are grains the raw input to countless consumer goods, grains are also the primary foodstuff for cattle ranchers and hog finishers as they prepare their herds for slaughter."
- "OK, so how about corn? Corn is extremely important in food production as it is used not only as a primary ingredient but as a sweetener, as well."
- "Have you ever heard the term "corn-fed beef"? Most of the best steakhouses proudly champion corn-fed beef because, frankly, its tastes a helluva lot better than grass-fed. The high sugar content of the corn gets converted into fat. The fat makes its way into the muscle and you, Mr. Steakeater, get yourself a beautiful, marbled "prime" steak. Fat cows are also desirable at slaughter because, well, they weigh more and cattle are sold by the pound. OK, so now, pretend for a moment that you're a cattle rancher. As your cattle are growing and being prepared for market (the term is "finished"), you want to feed them as much corn as they'll eat and you can afford. Corn at $7.00/bushel really cramps your business plan. Your first reaction is to control costs by thinning your herd, i.e. you sell some prematurely, before they are "finished". You might also simply want to sell some of your herd to take advantage of today's high prices. Either way, this extra supply in the short term has actually worked to keep cattle prices from soaring at the same rate as the grains. But this is temporary. By this summer, supply will decrease as cattle that would have been coming to market just then have already been slaughtered."
Here's the full post. You'll likely enjoy reading the comments section, too:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/ag-commodities-and-coming-inflation.html
That's it for today. Have fun and stay alert.
TF
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Comments
@murphy
Kyle Bass? I like his nickel story.
Yep
Thanks. Here's a surprise, from the WSJ. Hard to believe that they would let time run out before they bring them up on charges <sarc>
Clock Is Ticking on Crisis Charges
By JEAN EAGLESHAM, JEANNETTE NEUMANN and REED ALBERGOTTI
Time is running out for U.S. securities regulators to file civil charges for alleged wrongdoing during the financial crisis.
Federal laws under which the Securities and Exchange Commission usually goes after alleged fraud and other misdeeds have a five-year statute of limitations. The five-year limit is causing SEC officials to race to file lawsuits in some cases and ask lawyers representing the targets of certain investigations to give the agency more time, according to people close to the investigation.
@Murphy
Kyle Bass?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2011/04/17/university-of-texas-endowment-holds-1-billion-gold-5-of-its-portfolio/
Not quite on thread here, but
Not quite on thread here, but I'd like to see everyone, instead of referring to JP Morgan's or Goldman Sach's earnings, to substitute the terms "winnings" or "take". Much better and more realistic terms for the money they get in, and a nice reminder of just what they're doing.
Cliff
Thank you for your thoughts.
First off, I am not sure what the correct answers to these questions are.
Respect: this suggests that others need to respect you. Yet we cannot have everyone respecting us, or require everyone to. Take this forum, some folk respect others of like mind and some folk have no respect for them at all.
Did the Nazi respect the Jew for example? Take Copernicus for another. Socrates was put to death etc.
What if, say you are on a deserted island, there is no one to respect you, can you still have self esteem?
Perhaps self esteem is respect for self, regardless of the slings and arrows of outrageous misfortune?
Folk respect different things in others. I strive for truth, often with logistical brutality, some folk dislike it immensely while others applaud.
Yes, I agree, one needs to look inside, not outside.
Thanks again for your input.
B
I've been reading this guy's
I've been reading this guy's blog as it is very interesting and has some interesting point of views that have me contemplating various issues.
As I have been reviewing various acts of Congress that effected coinage and the constitutionally bi metalism, it seems that his ascertion is factually correct regarding a lone gold standard.
Case in point the Coin Act of 1873 which eliminated free silver through the use of Greshams law. Good money chases bad money out of the market. It is how the elite has been able to eventually push out silver and gold as money. The return to the gold standard created awful deflationary conditions until the end of the century because of the lack of supply, and hoarding. If you also study the Panic of 1873, you will find that there are very similar circumstances of market conditions as exist now. Failure of the banking system in Europe which came to the United States. Germany and other European countries also followed suit by eliminating silver as money forcing a global depression. And reading free market economist Milton Friedman, he seems to agree the end of bi metalism created a long depression.
I have often wondered what exactly would happen to the economy if Ron Paul become president and he put an end to Kensyian stimulus. I thought It would take the economy years to reach some sort of equilibrium and deflation would certainly be the order until a balance was found. Any such transition would undoubtedly be difficult. This is not bad but probably the reality of such a transition. Second, I'd seriously think about dumping my gold if he became president. For it would no longer be valued at it's investment worth but now would valued for it's monetary worth?? I've given it much thought but without inflation, why would I want to hold gold??
Anyway, being a supporter of Ron Paul, I had to read this article a few times to understand what he was saying about the gold standard and his ascertion that he thinks that both Ron Paul and Rand Paul call for a gold standard is based on support from the elite??? It goes against everything the most of the precious metals media talks but I haven't done enough research to substantiate this ascertion to say for sure. I could see this being true in 1873 if the elite wanted to get rid of silver but in a time when neither metal is used as legal tender, it's a bit hard to swallow but worth at least sharing it for other thoughts.
This guy isn't an easy read especially with all his different labels for different political thought. However, much of what I read seems reasonable, and well thought out. I often had to research what he is saying to see if it was true. So far haven't found any factual errors. But if anybody finds any glaring errors in analysis, would love to hear them. Do not read with your emotions. he is pro-liberty and pro-metals. Just anti-gold standard. Pro-bi metalism as I read it.
http://libertyrevival.wordpress.com/documents/economic-conspiracy/
We learn from history that the gold standard was the currency of choice by tyrants and the currency of disaster throughout history. It was the currency of choice for the Federal Reserve when it was created in 1913 and when we entered the Great Depression. We learn that soft currencies, such as the Tally Stick, was used for hundreds of years, building the wealth of the British empire. We learn that King George favored gold. We learn that Europe was on a gold standard during the American Revolution. We learn of banking panics almost every ten years when America was on a gold standard. We learn that the Roman Empire was built with cheap money, copper and bronze coinage, and fell under expensive money, gold coinage.
If one does have the abstract thinking skills to understand monetary issues, one realizes that deflation, like inflation, is theft. One understands that the current system is not public paper, but rather a private debt paper, created and destroyed by private banks through the fractional reserve banking system. One would also understand that replacing the Federal Reserve and fractional reserve banking system with a public debt-free paper would create the need for a monetary expansion to prevent deflation that could pay off the national debt and end income taxation.
One would understand going onto a pure 100% reserve gold standard would further complicate the deflationary effect of coming off fractional reserve banking and massively destroy wealth and economic production. One would understand gold would increase in value to the net economic production of the nation when used as a currency, rather than the intrinsic value of gold, causing deflation. One would understand that 30-year mortgages would be very risky with a high threat of deflation. Most of money paid on a 30-year mortgage is not even for the value of the property, it is for interest, which is a form of usury and monetary theft, which deflation would make worse. Gold and silver are best left in the free market, where people can choose to store their wealth in whatever commodity they deem of value, including gold and silver, free of the corruption of the government.
We should end the Federal Reserve, end fractional reserve banking, have the U.S. government print debt-free money to replace the fractional reserves with real reserves as private debt is paid. The U.S. government can use the debt-free money to pay off the national debt and issue significant tax refunds to every citizen. We can do this without causing inflation with a public debt-free paper if we end the Federal Reserve and fractional reserve banking.
On the horns of a dilemma
There's a Mexico 50 Peso sitting in the case of my local coin shop. 1.2057 troy ounces of shiny gold. Bigger than a Double Eagle. A truly awesome coin. Hefty. Jingleworthy. I have a couple of them already, so I know. And they hardly ever show up at my local shops.
The problem is, I don't have the scratch available right now to just go out and buy it. So that leaves me with two options, both of which are stupid.
1) Swap other gold for it. Stupid. There's always some "slippage" in some premium lost on any exchange. Why swap gold for gold? And in this case, especially when my focus lately has been smaller size coins, not bigger ones. Except for those darn 50 pesos...
2) Swap some silver for it. At a GSR of 58, that seems pretty stupid too.
Oh, what to do...what to do...
EO
An anniversary present for the Mrs?
Eric King, the porno King?
Look, I like Eric's site as much as anyone...but why, in God's name, does he stoop to posting near naked women tackling each other, to reinforce to us....that gold's going higher?
What does he honestly think of his audience? We are not sheep. We are not pervs. We are not adolescents discovering our own sexuality and giggling like little 5 year olds.
This guy has serious money that visits his site, what pray tell, does he seek to gain from full contact women's wrestling photos?
I know we live in an Idiocracy, but WE are his readers. Us. Not TMZ addicts.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/11_All_Hell_is_Going_to_Break_Loose_on_the_Upside_in_Gold.html
Can anyone tell me what he hopes to get in these displays?
@EO
"Oh, what to do...what to do...
"
Sell (or barter) some Celebrity ham cans...?
I'd swap...
One of your less desirable 1oz coins and some cash for the difference?
Or, 2oz less desirable coins and take your change in silver?
@ edge
The time to buy is when the fear is greatest and the blood is flowing in the streets. If you can scale into some quality miners with cash (no margin) and are prepared for slightly lower prices and can be patient there is no doubt you will be handsomely rewarded over the next few years, almost, almost guaranteed. Those worried about the day to day noise will worry, those making a longer term "investment" will be rewarded and likely rewarded very nicely.
Beautiful Coin
@EricO
Lovely Coin. Since it is a must have, put it on plastic. Just this once!
Makes sense to me?
On the horns of a dilemma
Eric, if you don't mind, may I ask what the LCS is asking for it?
I have one I picked up some years back and they are interesting. For some reason I like the coppery color as well and as they carry little premium are great values for storing liquid wealth.
Kawa
RE: Beautiful Coin
"Lovely Coin. Since it is a must have, put it on plastic. Just this once! Makes sense to me?"
Well, Donno, you don't know Eric. He has several of these coins already. If he buys another one with plastic, it wouldn't be the last one. :-)
Ot but its on my mind...
Mitt was booed at the NAACP convention today as we all have heard by now. Its obvious to me that he has hired a bunch of old McCain operatives from the last election cycle or a new batch of geniuses or just plain piss poor advisors. The rank and file members are used to being courted by "thieves bearing gifts" The boos erupted when Mitt promised to do away with Obama care. Reform health care would have been a great choice of words. This guy Mitt is a friggin joke as far as I am concerned. Mitt will have to learn to handle the health care issue like a real fuck artist would. "Fundamentally change" would be a good term after all its working for Barry so far. Hey Mitt wont get any votes from that bunch by pulling the teat from their lips. Let it be written let it be said. BTW I am not trying to piss anyone off here with these facts as I see it. The week does not go by that I dont get a letter from the RNC begging me for money. I have nothing for that bunch of fools!!
@sprite - re: hard questions, nobody answering
Thanks for the response and good input. The questions I posed are tough to get the head around, because I think the scenario is not pleasant... and probably two or three phases ahead of where we are today. Right now we're hopefully preparing ourselves, each in our own way and from our own abilities and paradigm. $5 K+ gold is what we want as investors, but not what goes along with it.
My thoughts around what I believe is the future of gold and silver and those that buy them are with mixed emotions. Yet, every investment plan should have a short, mid and long term view and set of actions and an exit strategy. In the case of where we are in this Bizarro world, I'm trying to connect dots into each phase. There will be a point of departure for society that has planned and those that haven't. TPTB will stoke the ones who have nothing and nothing to lose. We'll have to contend with that individually and/or as a group.
Hopefully the larger community of pm investors will counteract the disinformation and propaganda with compelling information that exposes the real enemies of freedom and capitalism and explains, in common language, why metals, commodities, energies and most other consumer goods have been sacrificed at the alter of greed and corruption at the highest levels. But this coordinated effort will have to begin soon or it will never gain traction.
The way I see it is, as structures fall apart, we will either go into an 'every man for himself' underground phase or we will, beginning soon, forge a stronger pm/truth/freedom community and plan to have a voice heard on a broad scale throughout this land we call home country.
The assets and skills you speak of will become increasingly important for survival, health and comfort. We should be honing and pursuing those skill sets now. As part of that we're planning a week of self-imposed austerity... camping at home, without air conditioning, without leaving the home area, no TV, no net, no grocery store, minimal energy usage, no driving. Just us and our neighbors. We'll see how that goes. I'm certain we'll learn plenty.
Again, I'd really appreciate feedback... or a reference to an organization or group that is already forming a national crisis communications team to combat tyranny and anti-pm efforts in the media.
Clebourne.. He gets
Clebourne.. He gets attention. Skin sells
.Chemtrail Video for the Non-Believers,,
..please explain this to me, those from NASA
http://theintelhub.com/2012/06/30/chemtrail-tanker-up-close-with-on-and-...
@DaddyO re: Gheenoe
You are the rare person that has mentioned this fine little watercraft. Gheenoe is a great little boat. Goes wherever a canoe goes but, because of it's winged out, flat-bottom design, it is super stable. Try standing up in a canoe. With the Gheenoe, two grown men can stand up and fish. Very stable craft. Plus the flat transom back allows for an electric trolling motor or small HP gas motor to be installed. Not too heavy to portage a short distance.
I used to have a Gheenoe. Gave it to my bro-in-law. He sold it. I miss it. Great boat.
@Bugzy and Mr. Grey
Just back from a nice relaxing 6 mile run. Aahhh, almost time to eat dinner.
Great conversation and thoughts, thank you both for allowing me the chance to enjoy some deep thoughts.
As for self-esteem, great questions. What is wealth? Damn, home run right there.
As you may have expected, I do have some thoughts. First, I am a trial lawyer, and I deal with persuasion. I have studied persuasion, psychology, NLP, and have read every jury consultant book I could find. The whole subject is complex and dynamic. BUT, recently, science has confirmed some basics as to the thought process.
David Ball is a world renowned jury consultant. He developed the reptile theory. Basically, in order to persuade someone, the message has to relate to a basic survival instinct. Fail that, and the message will not persuade. Think of a lizard. It survives. We humans have that instinct, it is primal. It is still there. Only through time, we have developed other things, like reasoning and other emotions. But the survival instinct lurks, and controls, and we know not on the conscious level.
I firmly believe this with my whole being.
Sex sells, right? Why?
Survival of the species. No sex, no reproduction, extinction. Simple.
Self-esteem? It is a concept beyond survival, and hence, relative to it is all. What do I mean?
Does a lizard need self-esteem to survive? No. It needs food, water, shelter, and the ability to recognize danger and escape from it. Where does self-esteem fit in with that?
Is a lizard going to stand fast, in the middle of a sidewalk, as a giant human rapidly approaches, out of a desire to stand tall and be proud, in an effort to demonstrate self esteem, or is the lizard going to scamper off into the bushes? What function, then, does self esteem play in humans?
Self-esteem allows one to make better choices for survival. One with self esteem may be a better provider, thus able to survive better since a better provider will, well, provide better. Or, the one with self esteem may be better suited for raising off spring than one with major depression who engages in substance abuse or what not to deaden the pain. See?
That is my theory, anyway.
As for wealth, again, that is relative, no?
Wealth is but a means to survive. In a desert, the one who owns the oasis is wealthy, no matter what anyone else says.
So, since survival is relative depending upon one's environment, both near term and over time, so too is wealth, which is directly related to survival.
Thanks for allowing me to contribute. I look forward to reading the rest after dinner.
KIng World News picture
Cleaurne61 asks: "why, in God's name, does he stoop to posting near naked women tackling each other, to reinforce to us....that gold's going higher?"
Well to be honest, for some reason, I kind of like it.
Icarus
P.S. I read King World news for the articles.............
answers
murphy: Da Wife wants a '65 Mustang. Gold doesn't do much for her. I told her "When we have $3,000 gold, you get your Mustang". I'm afraid she's going to hold me to it.
Cleburne61: I'm with you. Eric King has been pushing it lately, and I don't see why. If I want porn, I have some much better websites for that...
Kawa: I didn't ask, but I know that shop pretty well. I expect he's asking close to melt value for it. Probably somewhere between melt and melt +3%. At $1,572 Au, melt is $1,895.
@Larry.......
You honestly believe that people are going to look up from their iPhones long enough to demonize a few clowns who collect a few coins? Come on......look around you, then answer your own question..
Dyna mo hum -how to lose a crowd and election
I have to agree with Mitt's handlers being so bad at their job. Much has been noted of late that the Repub. party will become extinct because they alienate so many different interest groups, and do it so obviously. Does Barack go out and specifically alienate the Christian right?, the gun owners?. It is stupid to make speeches in front of certain groups and denigrate those issues dear to them.
I'm sure some will be offended by my statement.
But I'm still waiting for all those jobs the "job creators" should have created AFTER 9-10 years 0f Bush tax cuts. Where are the jobs "job creators"???
Kingboo
Ha! Great point and the comic strip is a keeper. Maybe we're thinking on different issues and scales. Maybe you are correct about the distracted ones... until their iPhones don't work. OMG
Chemtrail Spraying
Chemtrail spraying goes on day after day and nobody even pays attention, to busy, to tired, to broke to care. I have tried to educate folks over the years, they look at you like your some kind of lunatic. That video I've seen before, folks don't care, they just move on to the next item. I was in DC recently and walked by a building with the sign EPA on it, I wanted to go inside and rattle the cages, get the goober monkeys excited and let them know that I won't take this take this sh-- any longer, my wife grabbed hold of me and told me to knock it off and don't make a scene. I listen to her, because she keeps me from getting arrested and carted off to the goober gulags. I am convinced it don't matter cause one day this whole pile of sh-- world is going to blow sky high.
E
I guess telling her she can't eat a Mustang wouldn't change her mind. Sweet ride btw.
Peter Grandich on Goldseek
http://radio.goldseek.com/nuggets/grandich07.11.12.mp3
@rl999 Another Goody
This guy did some more research on this topic.
Very deep digging. Inconclusive, but informative.
Read the comments ( Dated Mar 27, 2010).