Another Volatile Day Ahead?
As you go through the day today, keep in mind that the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting will be released at 2:00 pm EDT. Recently, they been releasing "headlines" at 12:30, too, so stay sharp. The pattern of 2012 has been to sell PM whenever anything gets posted by The Fed or The Bernank. Therefore, be cautious.
What I hope to do while I attempt to take some down time is to rehash some "Greatest Hits". I plan to re-post daily a blog/thread from the archives, both from TFMR and ATW. We'll get to that in a moment but first...
Following along on yesterday's theme, the USDA issued a crop report earlier this morning and it was a doozy.
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1046
If you don't want to pour through it, here's what ZH has to say:
And, of course, our own Grain Man "Art Lomax" is all over it, too. He's currently lurking in Pailin's Corner:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/188505#comment-188505
The weather in The Corn Belt is only forecast to deteriorate over the coming weeks and the heat wave is expected to begin anew next week. Yikes!
OK, so here is your re-post of the day. This one was originally filed at ATW back on 3/29/11. I must admit that the food price surge that I was writing about never quite materialized...yet. I was also incorrect in my theory that overt QE would continue past June. Regardless, it contains several points that are still relevant today. Namely:
- "Let's start with the grains because rising grain prices cause all sorts of inflation. Not only are grains the raw input to countless consumer goods, grains are also the primary foodstuff for cattle ranchers and hog finishers as they prepare their herds for slaughter."
- "OK, so how about corn? Corn is extremely important in food production as it is used not only as a primary ingredient but as a sweetener, as well."
- "Have you ever heard the term "corn-fed beef"? Most of the best steakhouses proudly champion corn-fed beef because, frankly, its tastes a helluva lot better than grass-fed. The high sugar content of the corn gets converted into fat. The fat makes its way into the muscle and you, Mr. Steakeater, get yourself a beautiful, marbled "prime" steak. Fat cows are also desirable at slaughter because, well, they weigh more and cattle are sold by the pound. OK, so now, pretend for a moment that you're a cattle rancher. As your cattle are growing and being prepared for market (the term is "finished"), you want to feed them as much corn as they'll eat and you can afford. Corn at $7.00/bushel really cramps your business plan. Your first reaction is to control costs by thinning your herd, i.e. you sell some prematurely, before they are "finished". You might also simply want to sell some of your herd to take advantage of today's high prices. Either way, this extra supply in the short term has actually worked to keep cattle prices from soaring at the same rate as the grains. But this is temporary. By this summer, supply will decrease as cattle that would have been coming to market just then have already been slaughtered."
Here's the full post. You'll likely enjoy reading the comments section, too:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/ag-commodities-and-coming-inflation.html
That's it for today. Have fun and stay alert.
TF
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Comments
For those who missed it...
I posted this yesterday from Jesse: Notice that the extreme left and the extreme right both lead to collectivism. That's right: The Obama supporters and the Romney supporters fundamentally and implicitly both want the same thing. Where do they fall on the spectrum? About 1 step away from the collectist pinnacle on opposite sides. How does this work out for the productive individual again? And why do people insist on lying to themselves regarding these observations?
Grass-Fed Organic Beef...
Is the only beef my family eats anymore, we buy it in bulk from a local farm (got our first quarter about a month ago).
All I can say is: It's all top notch, right up there with the best steaks I've ever had. The hamburger is quite lean, but, frankly, that's a good thing. I personally love the taste of it and think it's superior to the normal crud bought at the store... plus there's no pink slime in it.
I just put in an order for a whole beef today... will need a bigger freezer soon...
@Diegeiro
Rib Roast? Please PM me a recipe! That's the biggest hurdle I have now with this quarter beef is that I don't know how to cook all the different cuts, each time I defrost something, I have to look up a new recipe (so I don't make the mistake of putting a flank steak on the grill... ew, that wasn't so good... "But it said "steak"! LOL!).
Had rib steaks last night for dinner. Yummy!!!
Several roasts in the freezer waiting for a good recipe...
Convenient time for a FF/Black Swan too....
From Ron Walker.....
http://www.nclc.org/images/pd
http://www.nclc.org/images/pdf/foreclosure_mortgage/tax_issues/tax-lien-...
pot roast
pourty try a braised brisket or pot roast or braised short ribs works with most of the tougher cuts
in a dutch oven or similar brown the meat (salted) both sides for about 4 minutes add about 1/2 cup water some seasonings and onions and celery then slow cook about 2.5-3 hours either on the stove top or in the oven. then add some vegies like carrots broccoli whatever and cook another 30 minutes. if you like gravy add some corn starch or flour to the remaining water and cook a few more minutes (without the meat)
Makes event he toughest cuts melt off the fork.
Only grass fed beef for me too!
@Sprite
Great post bud!
@Mr Grey
This conversation is very enjoyable.
So.....if advertisement can change our beliefs and living in line with those beliefs gives us "Self" esteem, then following our belief of consumerism ought to provide us with self esteem?
We can look around our homes full of consumer stuff and feel esteemed.
Now then - you come home one day to find your home burgled and all your consumer stuff gone, have "they" stolen your self esteem?
Or is self esteem dependent on having good contents insurance?
I suspect the answer has more to do with a core belief system which has nothing at all to do with the external world or our place in it. One in which everything can be stripped away and all that is left your self esteem.
As for fear - I believe there are two types: the one that permeates background processing all the time. That little voice in our heads which - when you break it down is always attempting to protect one from rejection. (which if you break that down usually comes down to "I might as well be dead" as the bottom line. [try picking anything - a bad report at work - someone says something negative about you - ^ well if you got a bad report then..... my boss does not like me - and if my boss does not like me then.... I could lose my job.....and if I lose my job then.... I will have no money, and if I have no money then..... and on and on. Sounds a bit off the wall....but I can explain further if need be. (CBT often uses this approach to demonstrate why the little things (usually) invoke such fight or flight responses).
The other sort of fear is the immediate fear of death or attack by Grizzly say. I put this one in the NOW category - it happens, do what you need to do now! even if it curling up into a ball and hoping. This is usually momentary fear (hopefully).
What is wealth - wow, what a fantastic question. I really need to give this some thought - a few ideas come to mind but I need to play with them and see what holds up.
Facts: Those that cannot be dismantled by logical reasoning perhaps. Again - off to ponder.
Many thanks for engaging in what I believe, is the thinking which needs to happen before one embarks on other endeavors - Why are we stacking etc.
B
Tougher cuts
You can also just grind it up and make chili with it. Then again, you can make chili with anything. Pork, chicken, turkey, the venison you got from Uncle Bob, etc.
Fear is very high on this board...VERY HIGH
Have you noticed, the fear of an "imminent" drop in silver is ALL OVER this board, even Turd is exuding this fear, although he covers it with "Possibly's" and "could happens". What I have learned over about 9 years or so of trading futures and equities, is that when the retail voice of the common man (and that is what we are on this board, myself included) starts crying goin lower goin lower, it is time to buy. It usually signals a reversal. This is a coiled spring.
High fear level = opportunity to do the opposite of what the fear says to do and profit.
The Cartel has done such a good job of painting the tape down here, they have instilled much fears into anybody thinking of buying futures. THEY WANT TO BUY AS MUCH AS THEY CAN DOWN HERE!!! with out adding much I suspect, and the best way to do this is to make the chart look real scary. If this thing breaks below 26, you are going to have buyers of size coming in and popping this thing higher on a spike low. If they can just play ball in this little zone and finish covering their uber short position without much buying competition. Im trying top think like the cartel trader and suppose I have to get this position off without adding much more to it. A waterfall would be out of the question because too many more positions would have to be added, no?
Obviously I am speculating here, but I have heard no other take on why we haven't broken down yet...I say we move higher from here after a bit more consolidation. I feel the fear too, but that tells me to do the opposite of what the fear says, so I am a buyer of silver miners at these levels, with size (for me) as well.. a bit uncomfortable, but trading is not about being comfortable now is it...
@edge
Well said. Jeff Daniels approves.
@ Dagney Taggert
Looks like a rounded megaphone top to me...but these days who knows what value technical analysis has....might as well throw my McDonalds gherkin (pickle) up against the restaurant ceiling...if it falls, I'll go short on pork bellies.
Dyna mo hum Yellow Hat contest?
Dyna mo hum eats 400 kernels and will poop out how many?
My guess is 399 :)
Bugzey,self esteem
Would they have stolen my self-esteem? Yes, on the surface the reaction would be as being raped! But equally I may come home one day and conclude the Mothers raped me and I can't win with their rules so fuk em I'm making new rules ! They hate it when you make new rules! What I tell myself about the now in my life is all that matters, and my do they wish they could control it! Why do we stack? Some times for me it is to complete a 12 place setting of sterling that my aunt Grace started because I loved her and sometimes it is because I love a proof coin for its' excellence, sometimes it's just because I think more ozs make sense in terms of preps.
Mr Grey
First ponderings: Wealth is having what you want. Or rather wanting what you have.
Is the guy laying in his hammock, in Costa Rica sipping his coroner and reading his philosophy books, wealthy - content perhaps? Yet he may not have much money.
Is the mega rich pop star who needs to turn to drugs because he is addicted to the high (which he used to get from performing) and now finds in Cocaine, wealthy?
So...... lack of addictions is important. For one needs to keep feeding these or there is a feeling of lack/emptiness.
Back to Buddhists with an effort to lose attachment for all things. Then one loses the fear associated with being deprived from that to which one was attached.
So maybe wealth has to do with does our means match or exceed our wants.
Maybe we are conditioned to believe that being wealthy is having more (especially more than the next guy) [for everyone on this board is wealthy beyond the dreams of 80%+ of this planet/universe- yet we want (need) more]
Reducing ones wants must surely be the only real way to true wealth?
Health - that plays a pivotal role too. Without health enjoyment is limited.
These thoughts may well change: off for some more pondering.
B
playing now on HBO
Hard Times: Lost on Long Island
http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=37131
edit: just got done, depressing but very worthwhile. The final scene shows one guy finally getting a job after two years of looking.
Job was training workers in India.
Ca Broke
You're falling for another political trick. As I understand it, in order to qualify for federal grants, all the legislature had to do was to approve the project, not to actually work on it. So this was just a trick to get some federal money into the state to pay some bills - nothing more, nothing less. No one expects a spade to ever be turned on the actual bullet train project - it's just a vehicle to try to justify the feds bailing out California.
Little has changed since then...except Cuba is MENA today
I'm not making any left/right point here. It's just a sign of the times, then and now.
http://www.answers.com/topic/william-mckinley
Corn-fed vs grass-fed
I have to agree with ones who favor grass-fed, especially when it comes to toxicity of the meat. I find it very difficult to even find GMO-free corn in shops these days. Even when I go to the farmer's market they usually admit that the corn has been genetically modified. That combined with all the pesticides etc makes for a very lethal piece of steak.
With that said though, the majority of people are used to corn-fed steak so corn prices will still skyrocket.
http://www.miningstockvaluator.com
The End of the Beginning
Hey, how about that 10 yr?
Mr Grey
So.... you bought self esteem and someone can come and take it from you? Is that really then self esteem?
Thank you for playing.
Any more comments out there would be greatly appreciated. Lawyer, doc - anyone?
B
@TJeffson
We did the same... We had a small farm with a pub (I am renting out the farm land now). Nothing big, some 25 acres, but that was enough for us. We would make silage like everybody else, chopping up corn plants, adding sugar (or special feed) beet bulbs with their tops, cut up, and grass. We didn't feed cattle with corn, just "sweet" grass, hey, and silage. Corn itself, the ears, would be used only for poultry, some for pigs (we milled corn and mixed it with cooked potato, bread and milk). As for us, we didn't eat corn at all.
Balance
I believe they called George Harrison " old 33&1/3. Man is a 3 sided being! Whether we call it Parent Adult Child, Father, Son, Holy Ghost or Id, ego, super ego! Balace is required for smooth transition in life. What is wealth? That which is aquired because it has value and increases self-worth. In some communities it is the Ak-47 in others it is a water well!
Food prices
Forget watching the "markets" for prices relard to food. Look at what is on the shelves.
Example: beans (pinto). July of 2011 retail price on the shelf was 3.8 cents per oz. long grain rice was 2.6 cents per ounce.
Today we are paying 8.4 cents per oz for that same bag of pinto beans and rice is 4.1 cents per oz.
Do the math. These are staples of life in a food war. As such they will be the first numbers to to go up. Corn takes a close second along with wheat.
if you are not stacking basic raw foodstuffs, you wont need your precious metals after the SHTF. Why? Because you will have starved to death.
Sorry for typos. Big fingers for an iPad. :)
Obama beats the war drums
Obama beats the war drums exactly as loud as Romney. There is NO difference. If you are going to "throw your vote away", at least vote for a third party. Preferably Libertarian.
Full Disclosure
A couple threads back someone had a quiz you could take and it would rate you with current world leaders! I was just a couple kliks south of the Dalai Lama
South Carolina Proviso 89.145
In the rather innocuous-sounding Proviso 89.145, the South Carolina State Treasurer’s office is advising the South Carolina General Assembly on whether or not to invest public funds in gold and silver. The short answer is the treasurer’s office thinks gold is in a bubble, but that’s not what’s interesting about Proviso 89.145. What’s interesting is the short paragraph that starts at the bottom of page 1.
Similar to other commodities, the value of gold and silver is determined by supply and demand, as well as speculation. The Federal Reserve, The London Bullion Market Association, JP Morgan Chase, and HSBC Holdings have practiced fractional-reserve banking and engaged in naked short selling causing artificial price suppression.
http://www.treasurer.sc.gov/Documents/Proviso%2089%20145.pdf
GL
Nice catch. Whatever happened to the investment guy from Texas that took delivery of all the University's gold investment? I haven't seen him lately, what's his name
Bugzy
In my view, respect is an earned commodity.
I View self esteem a parallel agent of respect. Can't have one without the other kind of thing.
A person without self esteem by definition does not know what respect is or how to bestow it.
The person without self esteem has to look inside to find the cure.
The person who is not respected needs to view the same source.
The person who respects nobody needs to look there also.
cliff
@tmosley
Democrats and republicans seem to be two sides of the same collectivist coin. So it should be collectivist vs. libertarian, right? Most people have no idea what libertarian really means much less have even heard of them. Jesse's diagram explains it well: libertarians below, collectivists above.
Fundamentally you're still right.