Turd Needs A Vacation
It's time for Turd to get away for a little while. Between dealing with the depressed metals, the login/registration issues of TTM and my personal, little band of trolls/stalkers...I'm more than a little worn out. Tomorrow, I'll begin a hiatus that will about 10 days. Though I'll still be posting content each day here at TFMR and at TTM, it just won't be as much.
Before that begins, though, we've got some regular business to attend to. First of all, you've likely seen by now that we have another MFingGlobal on our hands. In a stunning development, $220,000,000 in client, supposedly-segregated funds have once again been "vaporized" and...wouldn't you know it...the custodian of the funds is/was The Morgue. No! Really? I guess if you can steal 700MM from Chicago, you can just as easily steal 200MM from Iowa. What a freaking disaster.
ZeroHedge posted this morning a chart summary which shows some other futures/clearing firms which may soon be in the same boat. IF YOU ARE TRADING, you would be wise to check this post:
Against that happy backdrop, we've got to talk about the "DAG". Recall that DAG is an ETF which is comprised of 25% soybean futures, 25% corn futures, 25% wheat futures and 25% sugar futures. ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=DAG+Profile) When we last discussed it about 4 weeks ago ( http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3902/not-all-glitters-gold?page=1), it was about $9/share. Look at it now:
Holy cow! Got any other ETFs which have moved UP 40% in the past month? Me, neither. In fact, I don't even own DAG, though I wish I did. I'll give you this, though: Back in early May, I was looking at my RJObrien account and noticed that I had about $300 left in it. I called them up and bought a Nov12 $20 soybean call for 6c ($300 + comm.). I sold that sucker back on Friday for 19c ($950 - comm.) Yippee! Now, I'm waiting for a pullback. I do not think the drought/heat wave is over. In fact, I expect it to get a lot worse later this month and into August. Anyway, as you can see on the charts below, all four components of the DAG have had stellar performance lately. This could become a very dangerous situation.
- Input costs could send retail food prices soaring.
- Any kind of crop failure in the U.S. would have a catastrophic impact on global food supplies.
- Hungry people lead to civil unrest.
- Tyrannical despots often start wars when their populations are starving.
(Anyway, this is the kind of shit I worry about all day. Another reason why I need a vacation!)
The metals are higher again today...at least they were the last time I looked...though they are, once again, being capped just above 1600 and near the 50-day MA. The rally of yesterday and early today can once again be written off as "Happy Tuesday" CoT painting by The Cartels. (After the declines of Thursday and Friday, The Cartels are squaring some of their fresh shorts before the CoT survey later today.)
As stated yesterday, the latest CoT has me concerned that JPM will soon attempt to harvest the sell stops that almost certainly exist below $26 in silver. ( http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3940/lookout) & ( http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3963/lookout-part-ii) Again, I'm NOT saying that this WILL happen, only that it COULD happen and you must be prepared both mentally AND financially for this.
Also, I've noticed quite a few comments regarding my "Hot and Explosive Summer" thesis. Let's get this straight. I have NOT said:
- Silver will be at a certain price level by a certain date.
- That any one, single factor (like new QE) is the basis for this "forecast".
What I HAVE said is this:
- I expect a hot and explosive summer, particularly in silver.
- Northern hemisphere summer lasts from June 21 to September 21.
- I further expect an exciting and powerful autumn.
- I have no specific price forecast because, IF I am correct and events that I expect to come to pass actually come to pass, even I cannot predict just how high silver may soar.
So there you go. That's all for now. TTM is back up (for now) and subscribers should be able to go there and play yesterday's podcast. I'll be adding another podcast today, right on schedule.
Have a great day.
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