This video from yesterday is pretty interesting. 131 bu/a average corn yield. 140 bu/a is said to eb the tipping point for shutting down the corn to ethanol mandate. Where's the USDA report that came out at 8:30 today? So far, I can't find it. Can anyone post a link?
Pailin's Trading Corner
The guy in this video seems pretty credible. If he's correct on his price projections, we are about to see food price explode. Can you comment on the video when you have time?
Edit: I just want to say, two days of light rain was a nice break, but it doesn't change a thing. I am struggling to keep 100 chickens watered and cool. I thank God, if he exists, for farmers. I'm glad my life does not depend on growing enough food to feed myself. It is very difficult this year, to say the least. It's a good on-going goal to grow enough to feed yourself, but my grade so far is about D-.
Isn't it weird that drought/dustbowl coincides with economic depression? The weird part is that the drought does not lead into depression, but rather piles on to the bad economic times.
Wow--some report! I'm trying to get my head around strategy. Just seems to me that I can't make a case for a selloff until the weather changes, although I would say that the vol is going to be insane from this point on.
146 corn yield vs 166. Surprised they would make this 20 bpa adjustment in this report.
Bean yeild lower too at 40.5 down from 43.9
So this was a big miss. You expected the USDA would maybe fudge a higher yield number to avoid a big shock in the markets? If so, maybe the yield is even lower. The Cargill and ADM buyers must be going nuts trying to play this market.
No, I expected a lower yield number, just not the full 20 bpa. Remember, they have not made field surveys yet, so this is all based off condition reports. What this tells me is yield will be lower if this is just their first adjsutment. They are acknowledging a real problem.
Most traders now figuring sub-140.
But also note that they took usage down too. We will not run out of corn. High prices will ration demand.
Blackhawk, check out dtnprogressivefarmer.com
I have no idea what the floor open is going to look like...and the FOMC is today...
I think I'll sit this session out and work in the yard.
I enjoy reading the agricultural conversation. I live in corn country and talk to some farmer friends about it often... getting educated.
FOMC today? I checked the schedule and it said July 31-Aug 1. ???
The minutes, at 14:00 EST. They can have very, um, creative effects on PM prices...
can somebody refresh my mind, but historically what has been the pre-, during-, and post-FOMC minutes effect on PM prices?
that really doesn't help! :)
I would like to see a nice sharp spike down in gold and silver to cover my short calls. If it spikes the other way I will need to get out fast.
Possible 'headline' numbers released early at 12:30 p.m. This is done to create churn and uncertainty in Markets and make the Fed feel more important.
Usually when Ben is announcing he sits on the PM toilet. PMs tend to fall anytime he drops anchor.
Incidentally for longer term people GDX has been on sell when it crossed down below its 200 day in late April. Classical textbooks say if a stock crosses below its 200 and cannot retake it in 2 days or so, its a sell. GDXJ has been on sell since mid September 2011. This kind of removes all the drama from the painpage prognostications.
Memo to J. Hathaway: get a new job and shut it already. There are openings for sandwich sloppers at Subway.
On the daily Gld has been trading below its 200 since mid March. Slv since late February. No drama there. Those calling bottoms are laboring in the bush leagues. Playing for the Cedar Rapids Braves in the minors is a better gig.
Noting the painpage is talking alot about Ag prices now. Thats demand inflation. What happened to 'cost-push' inflation? Sinclair's trumpet call from Hades to join the faithful?
I have no clue how they calculate margin on them, but I guess I used too much, so covered for a net breakeven after transaction costs and now hope for an UP move :) I do have a nice ES Put so if the PMs dive the ES should too, I believe. We will see.
I also have a mix of long and short stocks now with stops - so any large move either way should be Ok. I am long SAVE, TGT, and WPI and short IBM, GME, PCAR, and ARG
It is not bullish - under 200 dma, under 50 dma, under the cloud - on the other hand, a break up back through cloud on heavy volume would be bullish - something like a move to say the 45-46 price area would interest me.
GLD is close to an official puke...do you guys have an opinion on that?