Not Rested But Ready
After 48 hours of too many beers and not enough sleep, Turd is back in the saddle and ready for another wild and wacky, BLSBS Friday.
Let's keep this brief this afternoon. There are a few things we could cover but really, at this point, it's all about tomorrow. Today, a surprising ADP employment survey was the impetus to claw back the gains of Tuesday. Because of the significance of tomorrow, I had expected today and Tuesday to be about unchanged in total price. That's about how things worked out. We just got a little more volatility than I'd expected.
For the week so far, gold is up a grand total of $5.20. Silver is up a scant 6 cents. The action has always been planned for Friday, everything else has just been noise.
One interesting tidbit from the OI numbers, though. Back on Tuesday, when gold was up $24, the total OI surged by 9,200 contracts. As Ruprecht would say: That's a lot. At the same time, while silver was up 78c on the day, the silver total OI was down 500. So, we can safely assume that gold was surging on new buying while silver was climbing because of short covering. Hmmmm.
What's nice is that these numbers will be included in the CoT that is due out tomorrow so we'll get a chance to speculate a bit on just who was buying and/or covering. For the reporting week, gold was UP about $47 and the total OI was also up by over 14,000 contracts. For silver, though, the picture was different. Price rose by $1.19 but total OI fell by 3,400 contracts. The questions for the CoT are:
- In gold, who was buying?
- In silver, who was covering?
So, anyway, there's not much more to say at this point. It seems the entire world is "easing" today yet the metals were sold off because of the ADP. Rrrrright. The metals backed off because they were gamed all week ahead of the only data point that truly seems to matter anymore, the BLSBS. I'll be at my station tomorrow, watching The Shill, The Coug and LIESman discuss the data. Soon thereafter I'll report back to you with a new thread. Until then, I'm off to take a nap and prepare for what will surely be an interesting Friday.
TF
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Comments
tyberious
The marketplace of ideas is the most manipulated market there is...
Gonzalo Lira Humph. This is
Gonzalo Lira
Humph. This is easy. It's what my ex-Italian girlfriend used to scream when Bloomingdales was having a sale: "Gonzo Lira!".
(Hey! I thought it was funny. I'll shut-up now and wait for the conspiracy theories to root, grow, be argued, denied, die, resurrect, and ultimately be properly buried).
Hey Jeanne
Maybe you should get back to stacking instead of your "crack" attempts at being a keyboard jockey. No one cares. No one can convince me that Turd is anything but a righteous man, and your innuendo is baseless and a waste of everyone's time-- who cares? No one is forcing anyone to sign up for anything, and Turd gives us his time and observations free of charge. Personally the idea of a paid podcast is not for me, but it doesn't take away from the fact that I still visit TFMetals every day, and click on advertisements which I find relevant and interesting. Show some respect for the big man when you are using his website & his resources.
-Bernank
Wow - somebody 'behind' somebody 'behind' Turd…
Pick one…
A) Who cares.
B) Nobody cares.
C) Why should you care?
D) It's a waste of bandwidth discussing this 'scandal'.
E) All of the above.
Underground utilities
was code in my subdivision when it was built in the 70's. It sure makes cleaning up after storms easier, and we have our share in Dallas. Maybe developers should re-think that. It is also nice to not have phone poles everywhere.
Answer is E
My vote is for 'E'
@jeanne - so who is behind Screwtape files?
Jeanne, you're skating on thin ice here, especially because you've devoted a good portion of webspace on your competing blog towards bashing Turd. And the thing is, we don't know who the hell you are. What's your real name? Who's behind you? You've got a blog, on Blogspot, so it's not easy to track your domain, written by the following contributors, none of whom are real people:
Jeanne d'Arc
Louis Cypher
GM Jenkins
Warren James
Slow Loris Larry
Now, "Turd Ferguson" is also a pseudonym, but at least Turd does videos where you can see he's a real person. And I actually know his real name and have worked with him for a while, so I know he's a good guy.
Here's the funny thing. You guys don't put ads up or ask for donations for your blog, and claim you are doing this out of the goodness of your heart. How do we know that the source of your funding isn't actually the Cartel? I might actually trust you more if you had a PayPal button on your site.
Just sayin'...it's easy to throw around accusations and suspicions towards people. Now if you continue to abuse the comments of this site to promote your anti-Turd agenda we will set you to moderation. And then I'm sure you'll write on your blog about how much we "censor" here. Turd can't win with you, no matter what he does, that much is obvious.
Jeanne.....You're Outta Your League Here
Just go away. Nobody cares about Screws
Re: OrangeAlert
Do you know the difference between advertisement, personal interests because of generating income and objective information?
Endzeit
No, I'm dumb. Please enlighten me and the rest of us on the subject.
Gonzalo Lira
Never heard of him / them / this organization. I went here,
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/p/books-worth-reading.html
The Brothers Karamazov, Fyodor Dostoyevsky, 1880.
Screwtape Losers
Yes, those nice folks at "screwtape" are simply looking out for the little guy and trying to protect them from the evil silver conspiracy nuts. What a crock of shit. Also, anyone that comes on TFMR and talks about how great the screwtape site is and how wonderful and helpful they are should be classified as a potential agent of disinformation. Either that or that person is simply clueless. I'll leave it up to the individual Turdite to decide.
Whatever. Since this is apparently important...(why, I have no idea)
As everyone knows, my initial plan was to add a monthly subscription component to TFMR. I wanted to monetize the 25,000+ unique visitors per day and that seemed a logical course of action. As I thought about it in greater depth, however, I began to fear that hiding things behind a "paywall" would hurt TFMR and its stated goal of "helping everyone to prepare for the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment".
At about that time, Gonzalo approached me with a business idea he had. He thought he could build a subscription podcast site for me and then use his contacts to help promote it. I agreed because I felt this accomplished three important things:
So, what's the big deal, you ask? Why would Mr Screwtape show up here and try to stir up some kind of controversy? Ulterior motives, perhaps? Jealousy? Hoping to drive traffic to their site? Who knows? Who cares?
I suppose their next move will be to "unmask" The Great Turd Ferguson. Again...whatever. The only reason I keep the name is because it has become a sort of "brand". It's also nice to keep some level of anonymity. I mean, I appreciate the fact that so many people read what I write every day...really, I do...but I don't necessarily want people camped out in front of my house, either. You know?
Anyway, without talking it over with Gonz, I suppose I can make this offer: If there's anyone out there who is so disgusted by the thought of me having this new business partnership with Gonzalo Lira, we'll be glad to refund your subscription. Seriously. Just email the support people at TTM and they'll gladly take care of it. Here's an idea, though. We've signed up about 130 subscribers in the first week. Maybe my friends and Turdites could push an overnight surge to double total subscriptions, simply so that we can collectively stick it up that JdA character's patooty!
VeteransForPeace.org
A few of their fine members were out spreading the word yesterday here in Seattle...
Later we hit Gasworks Park to enjoy people watching, beer, good music (Pickwick) and amazing fireworks...
I'm surprised Jim Willie's latest hasn't got more ink here today, it's the best comprehensive summation of all the puzzle pieces I've seen yet... http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1341518400.php
Please do not moderate
This is good comedy! I personally find it highly entertaining to watch such a sad, petty attempt to discredit our host die an embarrassing and public death.
Plus, you have to cut those guys some slack because it's very hard to create lucid, substantive attack posts when you are having to shout "Shaddup Ma!" up the basement stairs every five minutes.
LOL
Too funny Pining.
Re: Moderator Jane
Are you working for free for Turd and is all the generated income for him alone, or does he pay you?
I became suspicious, when Turd suddenly claimed, the blogspot was not sufficient. Soon the DONATE - DONATE- DONATE propaganda began, because the new site costs money. Very clever. Usually, if someone wants to build up a business, he has to invest his own money. Not so Turd. He suggested he was doing this all selfless and so the stupid sheeple were donating. Wasn't it for a good reason? The fight against the evil cartel? LOL!
Looking back is really quite an eyeopener:
Use ZeroHedge to build a base, use a free blogspot and TA and bitching against the cartel to grow it.
Then, when the hits indicate a success, make your own page - pure selflessness ofcourse! Only for you, not for Turd! Then make some games for the stupid sheeple with cheap yellow hats. Establish a trademark. And do not forget all the time to ask for DONATIONS because the evil empite has endless money...
Since the bull run has been broken and Turds TA sucks, change the topic more torwards discussing OI numbers. This is an eternal story and the sheeple don't understand hedging anyway. And they do everything that you will never understand it and you will always believe in manipulation - even when normal market forces are present!
Then generate even more traffic by presenting the usual suspects of the PM scene, e.g. Sprott, as objective analysts. Ofcourse they are not talking their own book, only the evil cartel, the evil Warren Buffet does so! The PM-scene is not profit oriented, not at all...
So good luck to all sheeple, who believe they will be informed by this scene obejctively what is really happening in the market. You will need it. Maybe not now, since the consolidations seems to end, but again, when these pushers will make you buy even more, when you should take profit. They will again and again make you greedy, when you should be careful. And don't forget to DONATE for that!
Screwtape
I quite like Screwtape. They provide a needed antidote to the generalthink normally associated with antiestablishment organisations such as the precious metals community has necessarily become.
The internet, however, has pitted newspeak against newspeak. The readers of zerohedge (and TF metals and Screwtape)by and large cannot understand the mainstream media and vice versa because all the information garnered by both and either party is self-selected and self-censoring. I tend to read the former (ie those bullish on PMs) and am therefore daily astonished by the way the MSM seems to misinterpret the flow of news. No doubt, as the recent 'druids' comment on that BBC piece demonstrated, this is a two way process.
Who has the monopoly on truth? No-one, obviously. But what the internet has done is to provide various competing truths, open to analysis and disproval, a little like the scientific method, which has done so much for us in the last 400 years, in which the fittest survive. It is a very brutal process, but one which has the appeal of rooting out idiocy. For an analysis to survive, it must be 'fit', not like my wife, but in the sense that it must work. TF Metals has done so and continues to do so, much like ZH. One can be sure, however, that the moment they cease to be 'fit' they will disappear. Such is the excellence of this brave new world.
Screwtape has good charts, a healthy scepticism, and a low readership, particularly when compared to this site and others. Is that because it refuses to join in with the kind of KWN pumping which leaves so many cold. Maybe. On the other hand, it is also humorless. The relatively recent parody of Dan Norcini and Eric King was truly disastrous. If they had wanted to make a skit of these two (particularly Eric King) they could have done so in a far more amusing and precise way. It also smacked of envy.
The pursual of Turd suggests something similar. They are trying to paint TF and others as religious weirdoes. I don't think that is useful or accurate or for that matter interesting. I was never a precious metal 'bug' until relatively recently in this bull market. I am now. Not for the love of metals but because of the fear of government. I am not odd, different, outside the system or anything else. Just a normal person seeing the way the wind is blowing and trying to take some preventative measures.
I am also English, paying more for my precious metals than I should be, but far less than were manipulation giving me low rates.
TR
Ya mean...
the campout we scheduled in your front yard is cancelled??? But there was gonna be smores and everything.
GREAT STUFF, TABBERTO
I just found this on the previous thread. So good I thought I'd re-print it here. Thanks, Tabberto!
Jeff Christian Interview
http://www.financialsense.com/node/8654
This interview on Financialsense was so interesting I transcribed part of it. The interviewer is ‘Erik Townsend’ – some joker who flamed Turd and plenty of others in Turdville on Chris Martenson's site. This interview was clearly set up to make the ‘conspiracy theorist' Goldbugs look dumb. Oh dear Erik, joke is now on you and Jeffrey......
Erik Townsend: It sounds to me like what you are describing in the OTC market includes a very big risk that at some point one of the major players could look at the market, and let’s suppose that of the 3 biggest banks in the world, the one in the middle ‘Bank B’ looks like it’s going down, so from a credit management standpoint everybody else is saying look, whoever’s got a lot of exposure to Bank B, we’re worried about them, we can’t extend credit to them, so anybody who’s got exposure to Bank B, lets unwind the credit we’re giving to those banks. Now everybody who has exposure to Bank B is losing credit and you potentially get a waterfall effect of everyone’s losing their credit lines and are forced to unwind their trades. Is that a realistic concern?
Jeff Christian: It is a realistic concern and it does happen and that’s when central bankers and banking regulators step in and say ‘ok we have to shore up this bank on a temporary basis at least in order to assure the financial integrity of the greater system’. I mean, this is at the heart of too big to fail.
Erik: Well this to me really sounds like you could have an extreme reverse effect in the market because in a situation where there’s all-out financial Armageddon going on, everybody ought to be fleeing into Gold as a safety trade. Potentially what’s happening is, the OTC market is unwinding itself as everybody loses their credit and everybody is forced to unwind their trade and everybody is forced to sell, the price of Gold potentially crashes at a moment when everybody should want it, because the mechanisms of the market are forcing an outcome that is the opposite of what the fundamentals should dictate.
Jeff: Well I think there are a couple of things there but yeah, to some extent that’s what you saw in late 2009 (??) but there’s a very key thing which as you said earlier, ok you have financial Armageddon and everybody should be fleeing into Gold, not everybody thinks that way and a lot of people flee into Dollars, so one of the things that you see is that a lot of people need Dollars to shore up parts of their financial empire as everything crumbles around them; so one of the things that you see is that you’ll see people selling Gold into a financial panic, not because they don’t think Gold serves well as a hedge against financial crises but because they see Gold as an excellent source of liquidity and so you’ll find people selling Gold into that crisis and its exactly the wrong time because the liquidity is drying up and so there’s nobody there who can buy it (contradict yourself much Jeff?!!) from you and immediately hedge it. So when they buy the Gold from you they have to mark it down, so let’s go back to 2008 and the price is 1200 Dollars, you go to your market making Bank and you say I want to sell this Gold and the price is $1200, he can’t find anybody to hedge this against (in a market that does turnover of x $Billion a day?) right now because the market’s in total chaos, so he says ok I’ll buy it from you but not at 1200, I’m going to buy it from you at 1100 or 1000, because I’m a bank and generally speaking I don’t take risk. (cue tumbleweeds) So if I cant hedge this at 1200 Ive gotta go off and find someone who’ll hedge this at 1100 and that’s exactly why the price spiralled down.
Erik: So we’ve covered the COMEX market where there’s a very mechanical performance bond or margin mechanism, we’ve covered the OTC market where there’s a fuzzier margin mechanism, that’s imposed on a discretionary basis, as circumstances dictate, let’s move on to allocated and unallocated in Bullion Banks...
NOW AT THIS POINT IT GETS REALLY INTERESTING
In particular please describe what reserve ratios has to do with the way these things are maintained.
Jeff: Some people don’t know they have unallocated Gold, they think they have allocated Gold but they don’t, there was a famous case a few years ago in the mid 2000s, we were actually the expert advisors to the plaintiffs against a major investment bank that had been charging storage fees as if the metal were allocated but in fact the metal was unallocated and some investors caught on that they were paying storage fees for allocated metal when they in fact had unallocated metal , so there was a settlement and we worked for the plaintiff explaining to them exactly what allocated versus unallocated was. It was a very interesting case (hahahaha) but i think other people know they have unallocated metal but they don’t know what it means to have unallocated metal. They think they have metal in the bank and that they can go and get it, that it’s their metal and that if something happens to that bank they can still get that metal, they don’t realise that unallocated metal is as good (or bad!) as money on deposit with the bank. It now is owned by the bank, the bank can hypothecate it, they can lend against it, they can use it as collateral for other lending and they have a liability to give it back to you or pay you the value of it but its ACTUALLY THEIR GOLD AT THAT POINT (yes you did read that).
Erik: So we’ve covered the COMEX and OTC market, I want to talk about Bullion Bank account but I’m particularly interested in unallocated accounts. Let me just run a premise past you Jeff; a lot of people are very concerned about COMEX futures, because they see the risk that at some point the longs are going to stand for delivery, there’s not going to be enough inventory, there’s going to be a default on the COMEX, I don’t see the risk in that, but if I look at unallocated accounts there doesn’t seem to be any firm reserve ratio requirement, the Bullion Banks basically owe Gold to the unallocated account holders, they don’t have to hold any reserve against it, they don’t necessarily have to have a capital reserve in any currency against the gold they owe unallocated account holders, it seems to me that in a run on the banks scenario, what’s really at risk is unallocated accounts that are held by banks that are unequipped to make good on those obligations to their depositors. Would you agree with that or am I missing something?
Jeff: I think that the unallocated accounts is a greater risk than the COMEX futures, but you know, if you have a bank in the United States the Federal Reserve and the OCC regulate nationally chartered banks and they say a bank has to have 10% reserve to cover normal flow of business at the moment and the regulation for Gold and Silver is that the banks have to have reserves and they make the banks manage their reserves in a prudent fashion (stop it, this is too comic for words) and the bank is given discretion to decide what a prudent fashion is and a lot of nationally chartered banks tend to use 8-10% reserve requirements for their Gold. So if their using a 10% reserve requirement, they’ll lend out ten times as much Gold as they have on deposit. If it’s not a ‘bank’ there’s no such stricture against it (!) .......
WOW It seems like the worm is turning just at the moment the heavies turn up. Christian is such a weasel its no surprise but for me what is more amusing is how moron du jour Townsend gets his conspiracy theories shoved right up where the sun don’t shine. The unallocated market which supports the OTC SCAM is falling apart already and here is JC to confirm it all for us.
Asses
I frankly don't give a "Tarsiers-Ass" what the good folks at Screwtape files think. Their behavior, of late, is nothing short of childish.
PM's are great
(This post is dedicated to a parenthetical ad hominem towards a single, new poster on this Forum who is on my 'ignore' list.)
Look at the contradiction: Ayn Rand would have LOVED the rational use of PM's in the monetary role. Who was 'inserted' into the ranks just after Turd made it clear the attacks were coming to this website? Look at our bid tree. Then again, maybe if we are all aware of 'character', a contrarian could be mentally judo thrown to aid in our own personal studies....
(Sad truth is that I, too, would be on my own 'ignore' list. You guys are really super-awesome, almost all of you, and I just wish I had more concrete to contribute.)
Endzeit
Here's a novel idea- if you don't like it, leave. We won't mind. People who read here are fully capable of making up their own minds about who they listen to. They don't need a nanny to "warn" them of the "suspicious" things Turd is doing.
Can we get back to the metals now?
Jeff Christian's Moment In The Sun
Came in 2010 at the CFTC hearing when Bill Murphy from GATA out-foxed them by reading Andrew McGuire's testimony. Christian later tried to "pal up" with Gary Gensler by satellite hookup; referencing both their former Goldman Sachs pedigree. Gensler shut him right up and Christian proceeded to open up the "fractional-reserve" basis in bullion banking ON RECORD. Foot-In-Mouth, indeed.
Value Added?
A Turdite decides - I put the Screws in the same category with Celente: lots of big talk with little or no actionable data.
Yes, some of their parodies have been funny, but where's the real "value added" to the time I have spent there? A few chuckles? OK, but nothing more.
Over the last year, they have simply been a "more verbose Wynter Benton".
@endzeit
Thank You Endzeit!!
So when someone is providing you a product or service, you may have to pay for it? HOLY CRAP. They never taught me that in elementary school, or high school or college economics classes before (probably because it was a public education).
And if you want to grow a business, you should start from the bottom and work your way up with trying to gain new clients that are willing to potentially pay for your product or services by offering it to them for free or at a discount at the beginning? And while you're at it, develop a brand name for that business?
I need to leave now, my worldview has just been shattered, and I need time to reflect on this grand wisdom.
Oh Goody!
So glad to see you're back off mod, Endzeit.
It's obvious from your posts that you sincerely believe that you are the only rational person who posts here. I don't know how we could ever get along without you guiding us thru the great con job being perpetrated, not just by Turd, but by the many Sheeple who blindly follow him as Shepherd and post here. I guess that I, for one, apparently revel in being misguided and misled as I am clearly unable to think for myself. Gratitude to you for opening my eyes. It's so hard to find truth on the internet. Stand up and take a bow my good man.
<sarc off> wax off
And I call myself a prepper
I had food, water, flashlights, cash and a place to go when the power went out. What I did not have was gasoline in my car. I set out Saturday morning to find an open station, a couple hours later I limped home on "E."
So rather than hanging out with friends all weekend, I sat in hundred plus heat cursing myself. My landlord finally found an open gas station. I filled up AND FILLED UP TWO 1 GAL CANS for the trunk of my car. They will always be there from now on. I am never going to let that happen again.
But, I still don't have power--since Friday night at 10:30 PM. I've been staying in a hotel. It's beginning to get expensive and at this point it may be Sunday before our power is restored.
TO DO:
1) Buy a generator that can run a refrigerator and an air conditioner. Even though I rent, I could have set one up if I had it.
2) Buy a bigger gas can for my car.
3) Disaster drills. I had to do way to much improvising for what should have been a relatively straight forward event.
The Great Outage of aught Twelve was a wakeup call for me.
This is such unbelievable bullshit that I HAVE TO REPLY
Anyone who was here at the beginning can back this up.
I was convinced by other ZH members to start a blogspot site. I would regularly comment on PM articles there and fellow readers would comment that they were tiring of constantly sifting through the threads, looking for my comments. The idea that I should start my own site seemed crazy. I first emailed "Tyler" and asked if I could become a ZH contributor. He declined.
Finally, one day over lunch, MrsF convinced me to set up a free site. She told me how easy it was to set up and, about a half an hour later, ATW was born.
After it's immediate success, I rather sheepishly pointed out to the readers that I was adding Google ads to the site as it seemed that I might at least make some gas money from my efforts. ( http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/very-encouraging-day.html) Instead of being ridiculed, many responded that not only were ads appropriate, I should also add a PayPal donate button because I'd "made" so many people so much money, undoubtedly many would freely give some to me. I thought this was crazy. Why on earth would anyone "donate" money to me. Again, though, I figured that, shit, if people were willing to give me money, I might as well take it.
So, now, here we are. The Evil Turd screams DONATE DONATE DONATE all day, every day while he conspires to screw everyone and line his pockets with their largesse. What a joke. Endzeit, I read the crap you posted on the previous thread and thought about kicking you out of here. Now I'm glad I didn't. You've shown your true colors today. Most here now see your real agenda.
BLSBS
Anyone care to comment on what kind of effect the BLSBS Report could have on PMs? Is everyone fearing a drop in PM prices tomorrow, or a gain in prices? Or do we have no clue?
@endzeit
>Then, when the hits indicate a success, make your own page - pure selflessness ofcourse! Only for you, not for Turd!
I would hope that Turd isn't a big enough idiot to work hard at something without trying to make a buck out of his efforts. Isn't that the point of doing work? The model you described (in a slightly biased fashion) in terms of promoting a business is not a bad thing. It's how the internet works.
>Since the bull run has been broken...
You've said this before (iirc), but you don't provide any data. I've posted this chart before, but I might as well again (see below). Almost all the long term things I look at do not support the hypothesis that "the bull is over". Heck, we've only had a 20% or so corretion in gold at this point. In the 1970s, we had a 50% correction in the middle of the bull. As Rick Rule likes to say of that time, for those holding gold on margin, it was a truly a "religious experience".
SOURCE: http://biiwii.blogspot.com/2012/06/rise-platform-blow-off-correction-au-is.html
.
EDIT: Wait a minute, are you also saying that this is a consolidation, implying that the bull really isn't over?? This appears to be a contradiction to your earlier 'point'.
>Maybe not now, since the consolidations seems to end, but again, when these pushers will make you buy even more, when you should take profit.