Pailin's Trading Corner

as mentioned, a little pig run in risk/on now into more news out of Europe, Holiday shortened week, trend into July 4 and the big reversal engulfing bar off the Thurs.-Friday bars.

Next event is nonfarm payrollia on Friday which could be a buy the good or bad news event as Market has changed to buying risk for a while.

all buy stops in Nugt and Slv fired off today and waiting for more Gold. GC key area to take out for real mojo is 1622-23. Once over that gold could run, who knows? Max bullish trigger for Silver in this cycle would be 28.65 for a daily signal up.

Of course caution is best guidepost so trailingstops as we go, we have seen failure in metals a few hundred times before. Will not switch to short until I see the air begin to come out of the tires. No indication yet.

Same feelings on oil and LNG. Oil clearly impulsed on the 'growth and pump' news out of Europe in anticipation of free Viagra being spilled across the streets of Italy,Greece,Portugal,etc. Air drops now underway from blue colored helicopters.  Mad citizens staging mob-like orgies more akin to the bull runs of a Spanish Spring, even Merkel is on a viagra drip, desperately hoping to kick-start a nonexistent sex life, the family wolfhound is being eyed greedily late into the evenings, communiques from Berlin will continue to update, over...

http://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/7487605302/

If everybody's corn looks like that, this year's crop is literally toast. That is so sad. The dirt doesn't even look like Illinois.

They say here in MO the first five feet of soil is completely dry. I've quit watering the garden because so much dirt is coming up out of the well. What a pile-on effect with the "Free Market" casino games in play lately.

Best of luck to you and your farmer buddies.

Big thanks to Gold Nugget for turning me on to 35-year trader Tim Morge's websites, and his webinars at IB.  This info, all free, is very well done and offers great examples of applications of Andrews lines.  I haven't seen any better teaching presentations.  Anybody wanting to learn geometric methods must go through this stuff.  All here would benefit.  Not to mention Shane's contributions in the teaching videos, etc.  There are paid services available as well (I've not tried them).

For IB go to:

http://individuals.interactivebrokers.com/en/main.php

select (at top bar): education-->webinars-->recorded webinars-->industry sponsored (tab); and look for his name in several places over the years.

If you watch the miner index than I think silver chart should be a confirmed breakout.  The other indicator is USD index which looks like breaking down. Anyway just one person's opinion and always use stops.

I like these as a way to get shorter term and faster signals when used in conjunction with another system.  It can give you good exit and enter signals.  If you are long and continue to get bullish candles, just stay in.  If you get a bearish candle or doji, either move up your stop or consider exiting.  You also don't need to let the entire candle finish, since by the latter part of the day it will already be 90% evident what the candle will be, barring some unexpected, and unusual, end of day action.

I am looking to see entry points that coincide with the bigger trend.  If something is in an uptrend, and pauses or drops, I look for the reversal to re-enter.  The opposite for a short.  Using daily timeframes, for the most part.  That, and watching for volume too as a way to try avoiding a fake move on low volume, or a major trend change down with high volume (i.e. something that is not just a retracement). That way I can narrow my options down and try to pick the best trade to take when I have several choices.

Global Macro. Tomorrow we are looking for the ECB to cut both the refi and the depo rate by 25bps each (to 0.75% and 0% respectively), while the BoE is widely expected to announce £50b more QE. In Asia we expect a 50bps RRR cut from China’s PBoC in the coming weeks. Brazil and India’s CBs have more room to ease (page 13). US data is going to be a key driver as on the one hand we feel the market is going to be more focussed on our out-of-consensus view that growth there decelerates sharply as the fiscal cliff looms (we see GDP growth decelerating to 1.3% in Q3 vs 2.3% consensus). On the other this is already starting to increase the probability that the Fed may implement QE3 in Aug. We currently ascribe up to a 30% chance to this outcome and see a 70% chance of it happening in Sep. 

BOE 50b more QE. China cut 31bp. ECB announcing (cut) in 10 mins.

My account got a surge a few minutes ago. The article below is very well written for having been released 17 min after the BOE spokesperson delivered the message.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-england-boosts-qe-ecb-up-next-2012-07-05

In short; UK QE, China eased, Europe easing, BRICs "have room", Bernank speak in less than a fortnight and shake the tail feather end of the month. Maybe that G20 statement about 'taking coordinated action' really was more than words.

No surprise here.   Gold and silver were precapped yesterday.  Expect the unexpected as usual in gold and silver.  I think I'll stick to playing this ridiculous volatility.