A Significant Day For Silver
Just a few things before I take some time away.
Tomorrow is Independence Day here in America. The markets will all be closed. I will be traveling and out of action until mid-day on Thursday. With that, here are a few things to ponder.
Today's move in silver is potentially quite significant. On the surface, it's just a 3% short squeeze. However, take a look at these long-term charts. Silver has been following the downtrend line from the Leap Day highs for over 4 months. Today, it broke out. Do you recall a few days ago when I mentioned that you should beware of "descending triangles"? They are a bit of an optical illusion as the diagonal line always seems to look more powerful than the horizontal line. In this case, though, the horizontal line connects multiple bottoms and goes back over 9 months, or about twice the duration of the diagonal line. The idea that price would break UP and not down should NOT be surprising. Now, before we get excited, it's only one day. Silver needs to confirm the breakout by not only holding its gains but advancing further. A move through $29 would be great and set up a move back toward $29.50. Then, IF we can get a lousy NFP number on Friday, the stage will be set for a run at $30 and the buy stops set above there.


Of course, silver is getting a shove, too, from some powerful action in the grains and in crude. Keep an eye on crude, by the way. Tensions are heating up again in The Gulf and a move through 88 and then 90 would likely signal a run back toward 100.

The gold chart looks solid, too. I expected some Cartel capping above 1620 and we got it today. That's OK. It is what it is. Let's see what we can do tomorrow without Comex interference. Thursday will be a setup day for Friday and Friday, IF THE BLSBS IS LOUSY, could be a tremendously significant day.

A couple more things. First, if you haven't yet done so, take some time over the holiday to listen to this BBC radio piece regarding a return to "the gold standard". A very interesting discussion.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01k9qd8
I did an interview yesterday with The Doc at SilverDoctors. He hasn't posted it yet but I suppose he will over the next few hours. You'll be able to find it here: http://www.silverdoctors.com/ though I imagine someone will also post a link into the comments section of this thread.
Lastly, our good pal "Fortinbras" informed us today of the death of one of his good friends earlier this week in Afghanistan. As you celebrate and relax over the next 2 days, you might send out a prayer for "Dids" and his family. Below is a picture of him, relaxing with a cold one, taken about two years ago. We here at TFMR are always grateful to those willing to make the ultimate sacrifice and, clearly, this one hits pretty close to home.

I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing, mid-week vacation. See you Thursday.
TF
TF Metals Report is supported by voluntary subscriptions and donations. DONATE TODAY!








Comments
I'm out
Everybody have a good one, I'm out. Going to watch colorful explosions.
It'll never match the shake and bake I saw in '04, but maybe I'm just jaded.
this one will make you laugh:
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/07/banking-regulators-drop-libor-ado...
this one made me puke up my hot dogs:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/07/04/obama-in-july-fourth-ceremony...
@rl999
Since you are intrigued, a few more details for you.
individuals are not taxed on what they make so much as what they spend. This places a penalty on rampant consumerism and encourages saving.
Corporations are taxed based on what they make. They avoid completely the tax on buying. This encourages the company to spend and to be competitive in pricing goods and services.
A spouse can transfer an unlimited amount of money to and from their spouse. Corporations may do the same to a fully-owned entity.
A parent can transfer an unlimited amount to a child paying only a small tax. A child may fund a parent in the same way.
There is no ability to be overdrawn. The accounts of DigiBucks act like a wallet. When it is gone, its gone. You can borrow from a lender, but such money is always taxed going into or coming out of your account, depending on type.
More later. I am scaring myself. :)
50% diluted? No, I appreciate
50% diluted? No, I appreciate Turd allowing people to express themselves even though I often disagree with his opinions.
That's the mark of a healthy forum, nothing diluted about that.
Real Estate prices in the future
during inflation and a sinking dollar: who can tell us where prices will go? Will people will put their cash in hard assets like real estate and drive the price up, will foreign buyers do the same (usually in most desirable locations, or will prices collapse along with the dollar and prime properties purchased by foreign investors for super cheap?
Any good references on predictions would be helpful.
TFMR coins
I would buy them.
Just don't call them a Turd Dollar. Wouldn't want to see our aromatic leader charged with counterfeiting like the Liberty dollar guy.
re: Real Estate prices during inflation
One inevitable consequence of inflation is a rise in interest rates. And one inevitable consequence of rising interest rates is falling real estate values. This linkage is fairly straightforward. Rarely (nowadays) does anyone buy a house outright, almost always you get a mortgage. Which means that the amount of house you can afford is directly related to what the interest rate on the mortgage is. You can map out the implications to real estate prices for each 1% increase in interest pretty easily.
The 'natural' interest rate is between 6% and 10% (my opinion, based on reading). If the market were unmanipulated, we'd probably all be paying something like that, rather than 3.75% on a 30-year fixed loan. Do the math on your own mortgage, if you have one, on how much more you would need to make per month to afford a doubling of the interest rate.
I've read in a few places that once interest rates begin to rise, which they inevitably will, real estate values in nominal terms will drop 40%-60%.
Hold your gold until that happens, and buy back in during the deflationary bottom. It's the only chance of coming out of this 'well'.
*edit*
Two books I thought were good were Aftershock (http://www.amazon.com/Aftershock-Protect-Yourself-Financial-Meltdown/dp/0470918144/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1341446969&sr=1-1) and The New Great Depression (http://www.amazon.com/The-New-Depression-Breakdown-ebook/dp/B007GZOYI6/ref=dp_kinw_strp_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2).
corn and wheat prices in the future
As anyone in Illinois or Iowa can attest, it is hot and dry during critical weeks for ear formation in the corn. The forecasts have 100+ degree heat in the lower Midwest (Wisconsin and MN may escape) until Sunday. Pilots (not the MSM) are reporting flying over corn country of IL and seeing nothing but brown fields.
After a royal screwing by MF Global, having to scrape together seed money that MFG stole, then having your crops die in the field, how many farmers are going to say "fvck it" after this year? Of course, Obama will order some DHS agency to run the farms instead.
I think we now know what the 450,000,000 rounds of .40 cal are for.
cpnscarlet and Armstrong Conflicted
"All currency is fiat to varying degrees even in ancient times long before paper money."
In the above reference what I believe Armstrong is alluding to is this:
Fiat currency is by definition currency by government edict. So even if you have the proper amount of gold or silver to pay the taxes due, taxes are only payable in the form of the approved government currency. Converting your gold or silver has a transaction cost, since the government has to go to the trouble of assaying and coining. You lose metal in that transaction.
Even the farmer loses. Since taxes were typically due at harvest time, prices were depressed with everyone's harvest hitting the market. An individual farmer could not hold his crop back for sale when prices might be higher because the tax man waits for no one. This didn't stop the government from locking in prices of grain when they were at their lowest. And I'm sure it was just luck that taxes were due concurrently (perhaps one of the earliest banker scams?).
Peripheral economies as their name implies are not of the center. In today's world those would be economies that don't have a large industrial base and/or a large military power projection capability. These can also be looked at as the non-hard currency countries. Where Europe gets confusing is they have a "hard currency" as a group but individual countries can't print unlimited Euro's. That's supposed to be the job of the European Central Bank, which would expand the money supply only as much as the overall economy grew (in theory anyway). The peripheral's have been getting by, not by printing like the Fed does, but by issuing bonds for currency. That means those countries had to convince the open market that the loaned money would be paid back, with interest. The ECB is not supposed to buy individual government debt directly.
So when the Euro was launched the sales pitch was a common currency plus strict guidelines on government debt/spending levels. With that assumption in place, Spanish bonds were almost as good as German bonds and the interest rates were correpondingly greatly reduced for Spain. In a complete surprise that no one could have forseen (heavy sarcasm here), all the governments lied. They lied across the board about their debt levels per GDP (many debts by the governments are not in the touted totals, see Mark Grant's articles at Zero Hedge), about the amount of gold that was backing their debt (Germany's gold being supposedly at the Fed in NY is very problematic, all the central banks of Europe took a page from the Fed and do not allow independent audits), about their tax plans to close gaps, and one of my real favorites, using derivatives (think Greece here but I'll bet it is wider) for financial planning to make it all better.
European math is very creative. Reality is the bitch they are dealing with today.
Core (hard currency) countries are not immune to hyperinflation of course. But being able to print the money buys (pun intended) time to go last in the hyperinflation conflaguration. All the world is fiat, all the time. All the governments are crooks since they create something for nothing and trade it for real goods. To paraphrase a song: Money from nothing and the goods for free.
Gold News & Nuggets
India Gold demand declines 29% in 2012; prices to be volatile in July: SMC
World's largest consumer of gold, India, has witnessed a decline in demand of 29% in 2012, when compared to 2011, giving way for China to emerge as the largest gold buyer in the running quarter, says the monthly research report of SMC Global.
http://www.commodityonline.com/commodities/bullion/gold.php
Green Manalishi
That bbc documentary on Greece was excellent. I watched all four parts, almost an hour. Please do post a link when the next episode (Ireland) is available.
Silver News / Ore
Silver
Pan American Silver appoints Neil de Gelder to its Board of Directors
Pan American Silver Corp (PAAS: NASDAQ; PAA:TSX), world's leading primary silver mining company, has appointed Neil de Gelder to the company's Board of Directors.
http://www.commodityonline.com/commodities/bullion/silver.php
opticsguy---hot, hot, hot
As anyone in Illinois or Iowa can attest, it is hot and dry during critical weeks for ear formation in the corn. The forecasts have 100+ degree heat in the lower Midwest (Wisconsin and MN may escape) until Sunday. Pilots (not the MSM) are reporting flying over corn country of IL and seeing nothing but brown fields.
No escape here in Wisconsin. 101 degrees here today. Forecast is the same for tomorrow.
Current temp at 7:35pm...97 degrees. An Excessive Heat Warning has been declared through Friday evening, 10:00 pm.
The corn around here is in dire straits. :(
EDIT: found this article. It says 104 for tomorrow. :(
http://host.madison.com/wsj/weather/temperatures-break--degree-mark-in-m...
And this article about the drought:
http://www.wisbusiness.com/index.iml?Article=273854
Turd rounds
I will contact to see what they can do for us.
http://www.goldenstatemint.com/index.html
U.S. Representative Ron Paul (R-TX), Republican candidate for U.S. president, holds up a Golden State Mint silver ounce as he questions Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke about monetary policy before the House Financial Services on Capitol Hill in Washington, February 29, 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7sFLcLD1vPM#!
higgs boson walks into a
higgs boson walks into a church.
the priest says, "you can't come in here, churches are only for people."
*Everything disperses*
WI
I saw the readings for Wisconsin today. I'm from the west coast of Michigan where the houses don't have A/C. Back in the 70's we would have one 90 degree day a summer (sometimes none), but now it can be 90+ for weeks at a time.
Even Door County couldn't escape the heat. We have A/C in our place there, but the idea is to escape TX-like heat in July and August.
This is just funny
There is a new article on Bloomberg called "Gold Poised to Drop as ECB Seen Cutting Interest Rates". However, if you really read the article, there is nothing about the drop there, on a contrary, quote: “Expectations are for a cut in the interest rate,” Alexandra Knight, an economist at National Australia Bank Ltd., said by phone from Melbourne. That “could give a bit of support to gold. Inflationary pressures are likely to increase, if anything, if there’s further monetary-policy easing.”
How can they publish / get away with BS like that?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-05/gold-poised-to-drop-as-ecb-seen-cutting-interest-rates.html
because if you think about it
because if you think about it a lower Euro intrest rate means that they just devalued their currency making the USD look better. USD up GLD down
@ digiBucks
I was in a store yesterday and watched a man buy a $1.12 bag of chips with his CREDIT CARD! Started watching other people, and I was the only one in line who paid with cash. We are almost to digiBucks NOW.
The reason that all transactions will soon be electronic is because of taxes. Governments LOVE it when you pay with your card, because there is no way for the retailer to hide the transaction, so they collect the sales tax. Combine all those sales reports for the year, and you can easily know what the business is actually making, therefore easy to collect income tax.
Electronic payments are not your friend. The government will never allow the people to track the purchases and spending of public figures, but they will use this information to track us.
@The8thHabit
Read (from article):
The Dollar Index, a gauge against a six-currency basket that includes the euro, climbed as much as 0.6 percent. Gold usually trades counter to the dollar.
In other words Euro expected to drop on weakness and thus gold in dollar terms. I think this is what they were trying to get at.
@The8thHabit
nice catch...they obviously caught it as well, because they have corrected the article w/ out changing the headline (odd).
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-05/gold-poised-to-drop-as-ecb-seen-cutting-interest-rates.html
Gold Poised To Drop As ECB Seen Cutting Interest Rates
(Corrects direction of possible move in headline, first paragraph.)
Gold, trading near a two-week high, is poised to gain on speculation that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates to a record low today as policy makers take more action to spur growth and combat the debt crisis.
@The8thHabit
Yeah I read that article as well. There is some stuff in there about USD/Gold inverse correlation but the majority of the article, particularly towards the end, is talking about how gold is expected to rise on the interest rate cuts. Truly confusing headline.
@Bluefin
You mention about how Germany's gold is . . purported to be held at the Fed in New York. I suspect you agree with me that, at some point in the future, the disposition of Germany's gold will be finally resolved in a scene much like the one below. The role of Delta House pledge Kent Dorfman (nice teutonic sound to that!) will be played by the Bundesbank:
@Historiography
People will unload most of their excess property. This would be major deflationary for real estate. It already should be if the banks weren't scooping it all up and holding it on their books at precrisis values (fraud).
The real question is, are the banks/Fed paying the property taxes on said properties they are carrying? Doubt it (so f us property owners).
Gold
GSR looks good, yesterday
GSR looks good, yesterday again a small step to get out of uptrend channel. Quite critical, the next few days are.
What to make of this email
“So in your opinion we are better off with me trying to decide this without your help?” Masters asked.
After Dunleavy asked to speak directly to Masters, who wasn’t available, he said, “I will handle it but it may not be pretty.”
@Fred Hayek
Sorry but my bandwidth does not support the song/video portion of this blog. I haven't seen Animal House in awhile so I'm not sure about the scene referenced.
As to resolution of several countries gold being held by US authorities, well I'd have to ask exactly how many crooks give back the loot voluntarily? Who is going to demand their metal, and make the demand stick, when the demand is going to the largest nuclear power on the planet? Plus we have psycopaths, sociopaths, in fact many types of paths running things here. Ever try to convince a minor crazy person you might meet on the street of anything? Now imagine trying it with those in power.
look what roberts slipped into the obamatax decision!
"If no enumerated power authorizes Congress to pass a certain law, that law may not be enacted, even if it would not violate any of the express prohibitions in the Bill of Rights or elsewhere in the Constitution. . . ."
he's reviving the tenth amendment! this (the above statement) is now legal precedent, and laws can be challenged on this basis. subordinate courts must follow this precedent.
interesting article on the obamatax decision by a law prof:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/06/the_chief_justice_done_good.html
Ireland Lost and Leaving
@treefrog
Good. I don't see where in the 1791 constitution it says that congress can pass a tax as a penalty for not buying a product.
Not sure why I care.