Eric O's Favorite Gold Miners

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padme
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Nice chart

Thanks.

I am subscriber of "super force signals" now, Habert is a big bull for gold miners. He says his midterm target for GDX is 53.50-55,

looks like it is going to coincide with 200 dma. that would be awesome!

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200 MA GDX

53 area sounds about right to me . 200 MA. then get OUT.

if it could be as simple to calculate as this.... the  last bottom around  38  to the  current top at 48 in the first wave (A)  would see a similar size move in wave C... the wave B pullback in the coming week or so  could target 43 area and then the wave C would go to 53. if it could be as simple as this.and   Individual  miner charts should show a corresponding look. and target area.

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aurcana done well

Aurcana has done well  lately. 

firstsilver
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Evolving (Dissolving) Gold

Long, long ago, this one had been discussed here. Play taps for it after Agnico Eagle backed out of a JV deal in Wyoming Wednesday. Licking my wounds. Someday Evolving Gold could make a textbook study of how to screw up a promising junior. And so it goes.

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Bernanke and the gold price.

Yet another Bernanke moment taking the price for ride. And for the last 12 months, it's the only thing controlling the gold price.

Forget the charts, the fundamentals, the "experts" at KWN, perhaps one chart, which will be the most accurate, spot price vs. Bernanke moments, when either he's expected to comment and don't or when he's commenting.

What's going to happen on the 20th? will things deteriorate further to the point that he's forced to issue QE3? don't think so. 

And if there's not QE3, TWIST, TARP, where's gold heading - 1300, 1100? 

I agree that the fundamentals are there for a much higher gold price, but let's face it, QE1 & 2, was the primary driver for the rally that started in 2008 and ended in April 2011. 

Though now I'm sitting with a margin account, endured high losses, yes I know in hindsight..

But I joined in early 2008 and thought this is how is, piece of cake, 200% profit per year!

Good luck to all of you!

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U.S. Silver...

Just in on Yahoo:

U>S> Silver just announced the signing of a definite agreement to combine with RX Gold.

The new company is to be called "U.S. Silver & Gold".

U.S. Silver to receive 0.670 of the new company shares, resulting in the effective ownership of approximately 70% of the combined company.

RX Gold shareholders to receive 0.109 shares of the new company, resulting in about 30% ownership.

Combined production base will be 2.7 million oz. of silver and 26,500 oz of gold.

Sprott Asset Management had signed a lock-up agreement supporting this transaction. Sprott is the largest shareholder in both, and currently holds 14% of U.S. Silver and 8% of RX Gold.

A key objective of the new company will be to exceed production of 5 million oz of silver per year, at a significantly lower costs by 2014. ( a stretch IMHO)

The new company will have about 60 million shares and options/warrants for an additional 6.3 million shares.

Gordon Prigham will serve as a CEO of the new co.

Just some info, as I do own whares in USSIF.   

Audi.

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Great post by SRSrocco

SRSrocco has a great post, that Turd has just put up as a "Guest Post" as well.  

I found it interesting that Barrick runs afoul of all of my concerns, namely "Size Matters", "Location Risk", and "Royalty Deals", especially as they apply to the Pascua Lama boondoggle.

Given Barrick's history as a gold hedger, I think they deserve any and all evils that befall them.   Too funny... cheeky

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/176988#comment-176988

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See you in a couple of weeks

Going for a long overdue vacation away from the news cycle in general, and the blog in particular.  Go stick my toes in the sand somewhere.

Still looking at about 50 on GDX as a pretty important milepost in the recovery from the whipping we took this spring.  What was the low?  Like 39?  It was such a nightmare I think I've already blocked it out of my mind.   

Let's also keep our fingers crossed maybe for some buyout action to start to heat up again.  

Later,

EO  yes

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follow up on GDX chart data

Since EO's last post a few weeks ago, about GDX watching,

GDX has been correcting (as technical forecasting expected)

now fallen back to the 44/43 area where it hits the bottom bollinger band.   thats a support zone,but

To me it looks like the first wave down of an ABC  pattern , a wave A completed, with ongoing pause as wave B, happening now, maybe going up a little and then to be followed by the next down wave in the ABC correction ,wave C to target 42/41 area. 

IF GDX holds support anywhere above the  mid -May low, it can still be called an 'uptrending' wave structure  and this  correction ,IF it reverses ,makaing a higher low, and makes a higher move to target the 50 area that Eric was looking at, ....BUT, IF it fails to reverse  uptrend again, and whithers on the vine,sliding on down ,or sliding sideways  in the 42/41 area, that would start looking like a wave 4 of 5 going down to target the 39 bottom,and risk a lower low still. A lower low,below 39, would be decidedly crushing and bearish  as downtrend collapse of miners  would be continuing. 

Right now, its crunch time for miners if they're going to be bullish with follow through , as the ongoing pullback has hit the target area currently can still be called a ' bullish' wave structure....but only IF   it reverses back upside soon,at this current level. or One more plunge down can still be ok, but it must reverse and bounce  back uptrend  in a strong way. after the completion of an ABC correction.  we are in wave B portion now. I wouldnt be surprized to see more down flow to miners  falling in the coming week or so.

Individual charts  are at different places in this pullback. some like EGO are showing strength , like today.  and Majors are doing better than juniors. many of which have fallen down closer to the May lows. Its a pullback zone  to be watching here for the last two weeks , maybe two more.  Its a sorry time to be owning miners.for the last year and a half.

What looked like a nice bottom in mid May and a nice wave UP..... is being tested now with this pullback. Bullish buying needs to start entering   here,or in the next plunge (to GDX 42area) or we could be looking at a retest of the May bottom. 

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Just checking in

So what's been going on?

Carnival Barker Ville Gold says they have 10 million ounces.  Ya right.  No pass the smell test on that one.  I'm staying away.  Some poor bastard paid 1.60 for it today.

GDX looks like maybe it has held the pullback to 43 ish, and reclaimed the 50 day.  Still could go either way.

Yamana bought Extorre while I was away.  Good luck with that.  When do you think a new mine will get built in Argentina?  Better check your life expectancy tables to see if you'll live long enough to see it.  Though it might happen before Barkerville ever works out.

That's all for now.  Be careful out there.

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hi Eric The thinking on the

hi Eric

The thinking on the Extorre buy was, Yamana already has producing mines in Argentina and revenue from those mines has to stay in Argentina so the obvious thing to do was buy another Argentine mine.Under those circumstances, there shouldn't be any political roadblocks.

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Hey, good point kjm. Though,

Hey, good point kjm.

Though, I'm just happier not being in Argentina at all, rather than being handcuffed there, and forced to double down.

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Carnival Barker Ville Gold

Carnival Barker Ville Gold says they have 10 million ounces.  Ya right.  No pass the smell test on that one

I had the exact same reaction when I saw that. 10 million ounces at 5.3 g/t should get you a much higher valuation than $13/ounce.

Anyways, the deposit is in BC and I don't buy companies with deposits in BC.

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That's nothing......they

That's nothing......they claim to have a 43-101 compliant geological potential of 65-90 mil ozs.

What an irresponsible load of crap to put in a news release.

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nothing wrong with B.C.

nothing wrong with B.C. Mud.   There's lots of mines in that province and an up and comer, Spanish Mountain has some very savvy heavyweights behind it including Jim Rogers. As long as a company isn't going to f*ck up a lake or river, should be clear sailing. I wouldn't doubt all the gas companies in n.e. B.C. cause more enviro damage than all the mines put together.

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kjm wrote: That's

kjm wrote:

That's nothing......they claim to have a 43-101 compliant geological potential of 65-90 mil ozs.

What an irresponsible load of crap to put in a news release.

That "geological potential" crap was what really put me over the top.  I'm amazed anyone would put something like that in a news release.  If anyone with real money believed a single word of it, the stock would be $5-$10 already, instead of 1.21 and well off it's highs.

I've started a little file of my own.  The names of all the officers and directors.  The consultants and Qualified Persons.  The brokers who did the last financing.  I'm waiting to see which pundits and newsletters start pumping the stock.  This is going to be fun to watch.  cheeky

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I have lived in BC my entire

I have lived in BC my entire life. NDP will probably be in power soon. Natives, unions, environmentalists, socialists in power, housing bubble about to pop. No thanks, other provinces look much more attractive to me.

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Don't Cry For Me, Argentina

If any of you guys are still playing in Argentina, this should be a pretty good two by four upside the head.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pan-american-silver-comments-draft-1230002...

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Throwing in the towel on a couple of small fry

I'm just in a mindset right now, where the smaller the market cap, the more loathsome these companies get.

Golden Band Resources and Golden Predator both should have completed some important debt financings nearly two months ago.  So far...zippo, while the share prices continue to sag amidst a recovery in the miners overall.  I'm done.  The sector is moving, and I want stocks that are on board.

GBN is off the list. 

GPD never actually made it onto the list, and now it won't.

Impact Silver is on "double secret probation"  cheeky,  saved by some pretty snappy performance in recent days.

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Eric O's List of Favorite Miners

Before getting started, this would be a good time to review the parameters I've laid out as to where my biases lie.

Location Risk

Size Matters

Royalty Deals

Just a reminder that this List is just a window into what I'm thinking at any given moment.  Readers of this thread remain entirely responsible for their own due diligence, their own risk management, and their own trading decisions.

And with that, let's get going!

Atna Resources:  Atna has the Briggs Mine in California producing around 40,000 per year, but the big news is the recent consolidation of the Pinson property in Nevada.  This fully permitted 12 g/t underground project should be operational by YE 2012, and shooting for an annual rate of about 75,000 for next year.  They are funding it all through cash flows and a loan from Sprott.  Repayments to Sprott are pushed back to 2013.  No stock dilution.

Argonaut Gold:  Open pit operations in Mexico, with stellar operational success so far with their initial mine.  Start up of a second operation is underway.   Guidance for 2012 is 88,000 to 97,000, while 2013 looks more like 130,000, all at industry average costs.

Aurcana:  Start up at Shafter (Texas) is scheduled for June.  If all goes well this should vault Aurcana up to a similar silver production size as compared to something like Endeavour, at a much cheaper price.

AuRico Gold:  Recent asset sales are designed to lower overall average costs and improve financial metrics.  The leaner, meaner AuRico now has two mines in Mexico, the start up of the Young-Davidson Mine in Ontario, and a significant cash hoard.  Current production is around 234,000 oz/yr.   2012 guidance is 323,000 to 363,000, as YD gets up and running.  If you look out to 2014, company guidance is 450,000 to 530,000.   AUQ is hoping that YD alone will be producing 250,000 by 2016.  These are some eye popping growth projections, though much depends on a successful YD start up, which is never a sure thing.  Silver fans should note that the Ocampo mine has a significant silver component added in to the totals as Au equivalents.

Aurizon Mines:  A favorite buyout candidate as far as I'm concerned.  A single top quality underground mine in Quebec, and lots of cash.  Still a great buy even if you value all their development projects at zero.   Casa Berardi should keep cranking out about 160,000 per year, for years and years to come, at below average costs.

Claude Resources:  This has been brutal.  The stock has been beaten to within an inch of it's life recently, largely on concerns about stagnant production and rising costs at the Seabee Mine in Saskatchewan.  Meanwhile, management has gone about it's business expanding the mill, deepening the shaft, and drilling up new, higher grade ounces.  All of this should mean rising production and lower costs going forward.  The other big thing is the Madsen Project, near Red Lake.  This former producer has the permits and the infrastructure to be a quick and cheap start up anytime that Claude wants to pull the trigger.  For now they are continuing to drill, in order to really start it up with good size.  

Detour Gold:  Gigantic open pit fully financed and well along in construction in Ontario.   Should average about 650,000 per year for 20+ years, with start up scheduled for Q1 2013.  Still trading at a discount to where it should be upon a successful start up.

Endeavour Silver:  Solid silver miner in Mexico.  The recent El Cubo acquisition from AuRico has gotten mixed reviews, but since El Cubo is only 10 km from their existing operations I'm fine with it.  If anybody can straighten things out at El Cubo, Endeavour can.  Current production is around 5.6 million oz AgEq.  When the El Cubo deal closes, they should be more like 7.6m AgEq, with about $50 million cash left over to work with.  Endeavour has long wanted to buy Great Panther's adjacent operations, but El Cubo is the next best thing.

First Majestic Silver:  Top shelf silver miner in Mexico.  They've been running around 8 million oz AgEq per year, with plans to double that by 2014, largely on the back of the steady start up and expansion of the Del Toro Mine.  They recently acquired Silvermex on the cheap, just days after SLX reported some terrific drill holes.  When the deal closes, SLX will be adding around 1 million oz Ag to First Majestic's annual totals, for starters.

Great Panther Silver:  GPL is running two operations in Mexico for a combined total of around 2 million ounces AgEq.  Plenty of cash flows for further development.  The thing I love about the Panther is the excellent trading liquidity and volatility of the stock.  When silver bullion moves, you can count on the Panther to move.  

Impact Silver:   Producing around 1.0 million ounces of Mexico silver.  Plans on the board for steady growth, funded from cash flows.   For so small a company, IPT seems to have excellent market action.  Similarly to my comments about Great Panther, when silver moves, Impact moves.  No doubt about it.

Kirkland Lake Gold:  Steady resurrection of an historic Ontario motherlode that logged past production in excess of 20 million ounces.  Currently producing around 100,000 per year, though at above average costs.  Mill expansions are underway that should vault KGI to 250,000 to 300,000 per year by 2014, with costs improving.

Rubicon Minerals:  Fully financed, permitted, and under construction, the PEA from last summer on the F2 Deposit, near Red Lake, Ontario, envisions 180,000/yr for 12 years, though high grade underground mines tend to outlive their initial life estimates by a large margin.  The economics look good, and they just hired a new operational guy who brings just the right experience from Goldcorp.  Target for start up is YE 2013.

San Gold:  San Gold is currently running at about an annual rate of 88,000 from the Rice Lake Mine in Manitoba.  Capacity expansions and recent good drilling bode well for the future.  Guidance is 120,000 for 2013.  The other nice thing about San Gold is that they are the big dog in their district.  All the penny juniors around them always come to San Gold looking for JV's.  That tells me that San Gold will be involved with anything big that comes along in their area.

Timmins Gold:  They've successfully restarted the former producing San Francisco open pit mine in Mexico, and are posting good growth in resources and production.   They're currently going at an annualized rate of around 86,000 per year, with expansion programs underway to hit a steady 130,000 per year by 2013.

Now, let's get out there and make some money!  cool

 
 

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Don't fight the Tape. Don't fight the Fed.
Buy Strength, Sell Weakness. Stay in Gear with the Tape.
Leave your Opinions at the Door. Sleep Better at Night.

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