The farm blog you linked is particularly telling.
Pailin's Trading Corner
I must say I'm shocked lomax doesn't have more ht's for that....even got me interested
Art, thank you--you are a tremendous help to a grain newbie like myself.
In my chart work tonight on the grains, I was struck by the extremely wide ranges, primarily in the RSI, but also the MACD--and this is on the hourly and above. I mean, those suckers rock and roll! Is this typical, or is this more a recent development?
Normally, I use these oscillators a lot, but perhaps they are of less value in the grains? Thanks!
Dirk, I hope you're joking. Because if our microscopic efforts to make a buck in the futures markets are somehow sleazy, then I really don't know where to start...
Could be ominous though as I usually like to take on a bit more if price has been driven down into the open. Took on a bit more anyway back around 1600. I'm looking for 1625-30/28.50-29 today and 1.2675 for the alternative reserve currency which seems to have somewhat disassociated itself from silver.
Would love to sell some long bonds but 148-150 is too tight a range to be bothered with and they could break up fast if the peeps on the levers give 'em a good yank. Looks to me like the masters of the universe are just milling around waiting for the grand high wizard to give them the okay to drive interest rates NOMINALLY negative. If 6 were 9 aye Jimi...
A bit of a soften for first 15 min candle in the city. I'm now looking for strength to build around 7am EST, hitting my targets in the NY afternoon. Most know, but everything is fine if the above is slightly off, off, or waaay off. This is a trader's corner and I'm sharing.
BTW can someone remind me of the relationship between LIBOR and PM lease rates. I remember reading a good explanation once, but I can't for the life of me remember where I put it. Probably next to my mother-in-law's birthday. It's just with this whole LIEbor scandal I wonder what would have been the effect (if any) on the lease rates that were so portentous for the big smashdowns this last year...
Was an interesting re-living of the last 5 or so years. Had to laugh though when I heard this characterisation:
"I'm a bank and generally speaking I don't take risks"
NYSE closes early today at 1 pm ET and is closed all day tomorrow.
Loving the steady rise. Need to sleep soon so taking a little profit now. The rest can ride till Tipperary.
You non-non-Americans do know that the world doesn't stop when you do, right?
options on gold and silver and ES + some stock and option purchases on AAPL, AMZN, ACE, WPI - PMs looking good
Charts are usually fine in the grains, like last year we had a more normal supply/demand type rally, but what we have now is a weather market, extremely volatile 20c up/down. These suckers are trading the chance of a rain in a 10 day forecast. Also, OI down from a year ago, less liquidity due to MFG fallout and 21 hour trading. HFT making it hard on the small trader, getting stopped out in the overnights on thin volume. Hard to get a gap in the charts with the 21 hour trading, Sunday nights the only real chance. I don't try to trade every day, but look for obvious overbought/oversold situation to scalp. You've got to watch the weather reports. Like I've said before, weather is the trump card, charts, the dollar, macros, all take a back seat. Risky holding a position overnight, much less a weekend.
We are seeing a drought in the corn belt that is being compared to 1988 or 1980.
Crop size is getting smaller. Huge acres this year was expected to be a year for US to rebuild our corn stocks. Not going to happen with yields now expected to be around 146 bpa, USDA was using 166. Based on emails I get and other sources, this crop is getting smaller, with the heat now starting to move north into areas that had been looking good. Demand will suffer with these higher flat prices.
Dirk, the market's job is to ration a limited supply of grain. Higher prices will slow the demand from certain sectors, ethanol plants may sell out their inventory to a feeder, feeders will look for off grade wheat and other alternative grains to feed. The job of the market is also to encourage the farmer to increase his acres next year, to change his crop mix.
I'm leaving early today and will spend tomorrow with my grandkids on the lake.
Ya'll have a good holiday tomorrow.
Grain markets close at noon today, reopen 9:30AM Thursday. No electronic trade Wednesday night.
True. But the volume disappears :)
Butting up close to R3 on gold and silver again. Selling those numbers has been a winning trade (assuming you know how to manage trailing stops) since 02/29. Just sayin'.... :)
Fortunately for me though, I don't need to fill grotesquely large orders (not right now anyway ;) and I also find that thin markets aid my cause.
Yep, I'm definitely still with you on that R3 selling, down to a holding position now. What do they say... 'Get out of the way or be trampled'.
My gout tells me my mindset is in need of altering shortly, but the last time I listened to it we ground down for months and then dipped even further LOL :)
Ah, life. Enjoy the holiday you fine revolutionaries you, I'm outskis.
you can thank the speculators for the affordable cup of coffee in your avatar.
Yet the truth of the matter is that, far from causing starvation and famines, it is the speculator who prevents them. And far from safeguarding the lives of the people, it is the dictator who must bear the prime responsibility for causing the famine in the first place. Thus, the popular hatred for the speculator is as great a perversion of justice as can be imagined. We can best see this by realizing that the speculator is a person who buys and sells commodities in the hope of making a profit. He is the one who, in the time-honored phrase, tries to "buy low and sell high."
But, what does buying low, selling high, and making large profits have to do with saving people from starvation?
Thanks, Art--the lake sounds just about right for this heat. Enjoy!
Thank you for that post.