TFMR Podcast #24 - Econ 101 with John Williams
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I asked John Williams to spend a few minutes with us and help us review some of the basics. We cover the BLSBS, the CPI, GDP and the potential for hyperinflation. No one knows more about government statistics (and how they're manipulated) than John and I am very grateful that he took the time to help educate us.
John Williams

Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.
John is currently the proprietor of Shadow Government Statistics. "Shadow Stats" is an electronic newsletter service that exposes and analyzes flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers, and provides an assessment of underlying economic and financial conditions, net of financial-market and political hype. John's work can be found at:
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Friday, June 29, 2012
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Friday, February 3, 2012
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Comments
Squeek
Oil that chair!
John Williams theme meme
Theme from Jaws.
Do you guys ever feel like Roy Scheider yelling "get out of the water!"???
well, seems like some of us are really saying "you're gonna need a bigger boat".
Americathon
Might be good viewing for the weekend.
Comedy set in 1998 was released in 1979. A broke America holds a telethon to raise money to pay back a debt owed to it's richest man. Harvey Korman and John Ritter head the cast in this sometimes very funny and prescient look at our alternate future. Philip Procter and Peter Bergman of the Firesign Theatre wrote and adapted the play of this interesting, dated, curiosity.
Also stars Fred Willard. Just looking at him makes me laugh.
Duplicate
How the hell did that happen?
Excerpt from latest LEAP/GEAB
Europropaganda, of course, but GEAB uses to be quite spot on with their prognostications in global developments, so I advice to read their latest announcement:
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http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-66-is-available-Red-alert-Global-systemic-...
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excerpt:
(...)
''All the other components of the global situation are in fact pointed in a negative, even catastrophic, direction. Here again, the main media are starting to echo a long-standing situation anticipated by our team for summer 2012. Indeed, in one form or another, more often on the inside pages than in big headlines (monopolized for months by Greece and the Euro (4)), one now finds the following 13 topics:
1. Global recession (no engine of growth anywhere / end of the myth of the “US recovery”) (5)
2. Growing insolvency of the Western banking and financial system and henceforth partially recognized as such
3. Growing frailty of key financial assets such as sovereign debts, real estate and CDSs underpinning the world’s major banks’ balance sheets
4. Fall off in international trade (6)
5. Geopolitical tensions (in particular in the Middle East) approaching the point of a regional explosion
6. Lasting global geopolitical blockage at the UN
7. Rapid collapse of the whole of the Western asset-backed retirement system (7)
8. Growing political divisions within the world’s “monolithic” powers (USA, China, Russia)
9. Lack of “miracle” solutions as in 2008 /2009, because of the growing impotence of many of the major Western central banks (Fed, BoE, BoJ) and States’ indebtedness
10. Credibility in freefall for all countries having to assume the double load of public and excessive private debt (8)
11. Inability to control/slow down the advance of mass and long-term unemployment
12. Failure of monetarist and financial stimulus policies such as “pure” austerity policies
13. Quasi-systematic ineffectiveness henceforth of the alternative or recent international closed groups, G20, G8, Rio+20, WTO,… on all the key topics of what is no longer in fact a world agenda absent any consensus: economy, finances, environment, conflict resolution, fight against poverty…''
(...)
Music to my ears.............
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=8Y-u0UnKZ_U#!
@Airgead
What an incredibly powerful vid that was. This is the older version of Nigel Farrage. I never heard of this mister Sanders, being the dumb European i am ( ;), but he is exactly the kind of guy your country needs.
Banks are busy with the greatest heist in history, stealing everything they can grab and not caring one bit about the wreckage they create.
I often wonder when we stop being spectators, recorders, endlessly telling each other how bad things have become, and start to act and throw this den of thieves out.
@ Dagney re: $50K Accessory
I think most of us knew you were playing around with that thing (pun partly intended). After all, what woman in her right mind would actually cut one in half?
That said, while I am not disappointed at your news (that it's not real), it could be that Number 47 is greatly relieved.
;)
An overdue welcome to Turdville, BTW.
You are another positive addition to the discussion here.
(P.S. this post also migrated from previous thread)
speaking of a bigger boat
It isn't so much that I need a bigger boat.
I just need one that still floats.
Max & Stacy talk gold and paper
Looks like the Italians don't have many boats either.
It must be hard to find a good boat in Switzerland and in Euroland.
Trans Pacific Partnership
Summary:
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"What we see is a confluence of forces that has the potential to solidify a shift towards corporate fascism and encase it in international law. Governments will merely be the tools of the corporations to provide a degree of separation from the inevitable police state that will accompany this corporate global governance. Sovereign governments even with all their failings still have at least some concern for the general welfare of their citizens. Corporations by their very nature have only one purpose and that is to generate profits. If an individual whose sole purpose was to blindly enhance profits, without any regard to the standards of what is wrong and what is right in society, would likely be considered a sociopath by mental health experts."
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taken from:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35265.html
still think i'm crazy?
remember that i have theorized that the cash for gold craze is really a stealth confiscation of gold from the american population. i believe that the PTB need to restock Fort Knox, as much of that gold was consumed supporting the dollar. i believe that the nations of the world are preparing for a return to hard money. the can kicking will continue until all the gold is where it needs to be, or there will be a "black swan" that causes the ultimate crash and burn of the paper hoax. interesting to note - Germany finally is supporting the ESM. Spain and Italy are responsible for over 30% of the funding for the ESM. The ESM is what will be used to bail out Spain and Italy. Spain and Italy can't print themselves the money to bail themelves out. but Spain and Italy both got nice stacks of gold. gold will be revalued to a level that it can back one of the base money aggregates (worldwide). I think this is what Turd is hinting at too.
Atlas Shrugged
haven't read it in years. so i've been slow to pick up on some of the references, and monikers. but by pure luck, i already locked in the peckerwood character's name :-)
as to silver
you may ask then, if they remonetize gold, why should silver go up even more percentage wise? for one thing, they needed to suppress silver much more than gold. silver remained in circulation much longer than gold did. plenty of people still living remember the ringing sound of silver coin in hand. imagine the shock to the American public in the late 70's, as a silver quarter aproached 5 dollars in value - not so much today. the other thing is that when the silver suppression really got underway (after 1987) i don't think the monetary powers foresaw the explosion in high tech and medical demand of silver. suppression results in shortage, so expect silver to overshoot past its historic 16-1 ratio to gold. also from a geological perspective, silver is always found close to the surface. so more than any of the other natural resource commodities, with silver all the good stuff really has already been found.
Hey Sense -- Re Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders is a proud socialist. We don't need any more of those. All the 'great' socialist programs are the reason the western economies are in the fix they are in.
Swifty
.925 sterling silver
Got an email from Apmex saying they had sterling silver in stock at .09 cents over spot.
Lots of people buy junk silver coins, and they are .90 silver. I never see sterling advertised or talked about, only in reference to garage sales and whatnot. Is there a reason for this? Do people not hold sterling as an "investment"? I understand that most sterling is in jewlery/flatware form.
I like to get the most bang for my buck and this seems like a possibility.
Eau Contra Mon Ami - Bernie Sanders
As with anything ~ in moderation.
Yes, the socialist programs are a small part of the whole, but far from the entirety.
Greed, avarice and hubris are the main reasons the western economies are in the fix they are in.
Plain and simple.
And just who are these greedy, avaricial, hubristic people? Listen to what Bernie says in the video - you did listen to the video, did you not?
Could it be the bottom 40% of the population who get to share 3/10's of 1% of the nations wealth?
Or could it just may be the top 1% of the population who get to divvy up 40% of the nations wealth?
Use your head for more than a hat rack!
@ Senseosensie
Thnx!
I am European too, and just stumbled on this vid.
You mean with "exactly the kind of guy your country needs" of course an honest man who is understanding what is going on.
Turd... if you'll let me donate about $1.50, I'll buy...
... you a can of WD-40 for the damn chair! ;)
@Peckerwood
I think you're absolutely spot on, and the 'cash for gold' scam is all over Europe too.
What puzzles me is that people like Turd, JW, etc seem excited about this, which possibly means that they think it's a good thing?
I don't buy this 'Eastern entities' thing, as if the cavalry are coming: a bit of research shows that the Big Four Chinese banks are owned/run/advised by the same old corrupt crowd. So what is there to be excited about? In the coming global bank crash, billions will possibly die.
Fortinbras
Funny about the chair.
I thought the exact same thing.
Z
[OT] The Age Of Inflation by Jacques Rueff
I've uploaded "The Age Of Inflation" [scribd] by Jacques Rueff. The French edition was published in 1964 and the English edition in 1967. It is out of print and unavailable in the physical, except in a few libraries. Rueff covers the resumption of the Gold Standard in 1922 after World War I - in his mind the seeds of the future inflation were set by adopting the Gold Exchange Standard instead of the classic Gold Standard, economising on the use of gold in the system. A similar system allowing foreign reserves was adopted later in the Bretton Woods agreements.
He also covers the "Hitlerite" economics, and credits Hilter with being the only person to conquer inflation. The 1948 German currency reforms are studied, and it provides in Rueff's view laboratory conditions for an experiment on planned vs unplanned economy.
Its 189 pages long, and quite a quick read.
From the inside cover:
I hope you enjoy it.
@ withoutwax
i can't answer for Turd or the others, but i can guess, and also share my views. i think that the return to hard money will force the metals many times higher. since this has been such a brutal process there is sure to be a certain " I told you so", feeling. Of course, it also will feel pretty good being on the "right" side of the trade - my financial position certainly will improve. but i think there is much more to it than that. i believe that the new system will be much more fair. i am solidly behind Ron Paul, and his views on real money. i also believe that the return to sound money will accompany a much larger paradigm shift worldwide, and one that favors us "good" guys. let me leave you hanging on that lest i get labeled one of the conspiracy nuts. at least i am posting this on the dead thread :-)
@Peckerwood
Thanks for that - but doesn't having a new gold-standard just increase centralisation? i.e. it will be the banks and very wealthy families who own most of the gold, so they are not going to suffer, whilst the poor have been hocking their family silver (literally!) to pay the bills? The ability of the gold-owning oligarchs to completely control the economy will mean death for those who get refused a credit card, as cash will disappear. I've just listened to this great interview, where CAF speaks against centralisation, whether it be in the money supply, the seed supply etc. Thoughts? Also, Webster Tarpley doesn't trust RP, and there are rumours of him being a Freemason - what are your thoughts?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=uFHuzf8li0k
Some stuff about recent stuff
Hi boys and girls - I'm I like others read, but do not post often.
I have seen some deterioration of late regarding mood/content replies. Please, remember a few golden rules (and also problems with typing over the internet - i.e. TONALITY is not inferred so sarcasm/facetiousness etc. cannot be readily picked up; p.s. I am not currently prescribed to any religion).
1. Treat others as you would like to be treated
2. Bite your tongue until it bleeds if you're going to flame the bejesus out of someone
3. Just be nice.... it helps..... everyone!
It is a minority, however, that are stirring the pot. I echo sentiments that I just want to have someone state an opinion, and then someone state a counterpoint in order to learn. There are many people here that do do that (i.e. facilitate learning - Mr.Fer-gus-son included obviously!!!). Without ranting on too much; getting bogged down in the negative mood both here, on ZH, in your local media outlet etc., can be very detrimental to your outlook in general. It can very much cloud judgment and jade your senses. Try to remain as impartial and objective (where needed) as possible! This is, in my opinion, the way to interpret data without confounding emotion, or separating your emotion from data, in order to get better outcomes - that is, you can make better/more profitable decisions.
I will say I saw a disgusting example of rampant (surely their age based on their tone???) 15-25 somethingish abuse on ZH about some guy who was a physicist (and from my science background) was completely correct when discussing what 6-sigma actually meant. He was commenting on the premise for the article or stats explaining how they worked with regards to normally distributed data and normal statistical error associated with 3-Standard deviations away from a fixed or "floating" mean. The physicist was being logical and rational in his tone (as could be interpreted thoughout his posts). Then some guy replies, "...I am an engineer" and proceeded to flame the absolute bejesus out this guy for questioning the context or how the move in (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/iran-oil-embargo-goes-effect-crude-8)... That's the kind of stuff that is really really detrimental to a discussion. So please, just be nice!!!!@@!#$!#
I'm too green to be getting involved with the Turd Army etc. so I just stack the phys..... bought some shares in some undervalued miners on the ASX too, dun care if I lose the small investment, there's just too much upside to not bother risking a few grand. I do however love the CoT stff and various chart porn
Interestingly I liked Peter Schiff's idea of valuing the DJIA/S&P in gold over time to give a "gauge" as to what the stocks are worth relative to gold - giving you another indicator as to the value of the share market, relative to the currency, relative to gold. Interesting!!!!! Look up the DJA/Gold ratio for further information.
Thankyou to whoever posted that clip of the Stradivarius being used to play Bach's Ciaccona.... It's a wonderful piece of music the Partita No.2 in D-Minor, all parts (I started learning how to play it when I was younger, very hard - the intonation is intense!!!)
A few vids:
If people want some Acoustic Guitar goodness checkout these guys solo work - Paco de Lucia, Al di Meola, John McLaughlin - here is all 3 playing Mediterranean Sundance.
It's funny I have lots of Al di Meola's stuff, but Paco and John are sooooooooooooooo good too, some of Paco's other stuff on YouTube makes this clip look like childs play tho :)
As usual,
Peace guys....
@withoutwax
under a true gold standard, gold circulates as money. this is actually decentralizing. remember the saying that gold is no one elses liability. under a true gold standard, also interest rates are market set, making the banking system passive to the free market. i'm going to have a hard time explaining this, so i'd like to put this out there to the board. a key point to remember is that the USA left the gold standard in several steps. the American public never was STOOOPID enough to allow the Federal Reserve complete control in one fell swoop.
As to RP - he is too old now to ever run again. whether or not he is a freemason doesn't matter to me. i don't know one way or another if the freemasons are good or bad. i do know what is factual as to the European banking families, and that is ALL BAD. the Federal Reserve Act was the retaking of the colonies by Great Britain (the City of London). The USA was most free when we were on a true gold standard, and had no central bank.
you may want to migrate your questions to the newest thread.
@ John Williams
I feel bad that your podcast got so little commentary. I am very familiar with your website, and frequent it often. You also must be the most quoted number cruncher of the hard money crowd, and also a champion of limited and accountable government.
I think that the lack of excitement here mostly was due to all the fireworks on the newer Saturday thread. Also it does not help that most of the country is dealing with seriously bad weather. And finally, from one geek to another, most of the readership apparently doesn't get a much of a thrill playing with numbers.
To anyone who hasn't watched the video yet, it really is a good foundation to build upon.
Hope this post wasn't needed.
peckerwood
@Peckerwood / JonWill
As much as stats can be/is pretty bland to most people, having someone who knows what is what is very informative and interesting to listen too. Demystifying the lies, damn lies and statistics is great! I thoroughly enjoyed it. Similar crap goes in Australia with regard to manipulating government methods in order to make the statistics look more appealing to the masses, the most obvious one being the employment figure, which if some1 does as much as 1hr's work in a fortnight I think it is, they are not counted as unemployed. There is no "grey zone" where you have say of the total "employed" workforce, a statistic stating less than say 12-20hrs a fortnight employment (which is really not enough to live off) which is also weighted against say age. The most commonly dropped statistic is the total/gross unemployed, which due to the stats here, is @ the "theoretical minimum" bs that gets trotted out of about 5% or so, but yet there are still lots of ads in the papers :)
Got to love political manipulation of key metrics so they look good..... Keep the masses under control. That is the name of the game.
I try do what Turd/John talk about, look around at the society I live in and attempt to put pieces together as to whether "things" (whatever they may be) are getting better/worse with regards to some kind of public interest context (i.e. what the media may be talking about). Try and read as widely (political spectrum wise) and as much as possible, this will help too make a good judgement.
Peace
Great interview,
Great interview, John Williams is top notch in my book. Would CNBS ever let Williams give them his information in a interview? I doubt it.
as Bob Dylan so eloquently said
you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows :-)
that said, i need to go do something outside, and get off this computer. its so hot here again today that i think my outdoor activity will be beer drinking possibly accompanied by even more beer drinking.
thank you all...
peckerwood