On The Lookout, Part II
When you eat, breathe and sleep your work, sometimes inspiration strikes you at the most odd of hours. Last night, I'm tossing and turning, trying to relax when the following pattern came to mind.
First, let's review a few things to insure that we are all on the same page. In Comex silver futures, there are five "delivery" months. These are the contracts that are the most actively traded because they are the contracts with the most volume and open interest (liquidity). These five contracts are considered "delivery" contracts because they are the ones through which holders most often take actual physical delivery of metal. Yes, the other months do see some delivery action but it is the months of March, May, July, September and December where the bulk of the physical settlement takes place.
If one desires to take delivery through The Comex, one must first buy a futures contract. Let's say you wanted your 5000 ounces of silver in March so you purchase a March12 contract. When you buy the contract, you only have to put up part of the money, this is your initial margin requirement. However, once the contract expires, The Comex will ask you to put up all of the money needed to purchase the silver. The date where "100% margin" is required is known as First Notice Day. It's a sort of put-up-or-shut-up type of thing. By late February, trading in the March contract will have ceased so The Comex wants you out of the contract. Only those with intent to take delivery are allowed to continue to hold it and all of them must have 100% of the cost of delivery in their respective brokerage accounts by First Notice Day.
It is on First Notice Day that we get some idea of how many contracts are standing for delivery. Recently, this number has been coming in anywhere between 2,000 and 4,000 contracts, or roughly 10,000,000 to 20,000,000 ounces of silver. OK, are you with me so far??
Here's the rather alarming trend that hit me late last night:
For the December11 contract, first notice day was November 30, 2011. Closing price that day of the March12 contract was 32.87. BY 12/29/11, the MARCH12 TRADED AS LOW AS 26.50. DOWN 19.38%.
For the March12 contract, first notice day was February 29, 2012. Closing price that day of the May12 contract was 34.70. (It was even higher at 37.26 on 2/28.) BY 3/22/12, THE MAY12 TRADED AS LOW AS 31.18. DOWN 16.32%.
For the May12 contract, first notice day was April 30, 2012. Closing price that day of the July12 contract was 31.01. BY 5/16/12, THE JULY12 TRADED AS LOW AS 26.73. DOWN 13.8%.
Graphically, it looks like this:

Uh-oh. Maybe now would be an excellent time to go back and read this post from last Saturday:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3940/lookout
As you know, yesterday was option expiration and the final trading day for the July12 contract. The action now shifts to the September12 contract. First Notice Day for the July12 contract is this Friday, the 29th. If things get a little dicey next week and into mid-July, don't say you weren't warned. That said, I firmly believe everything I put into the Saturday post referenced above. IF a washout through $26 materializes, please do not panic. Recognize it for what it is: The Closing Acts of The Silver Cartel. Once they are net flat or even net long, things are going to get very exciting around here.
Be patient. Think clearly. Be rational. Prepare accordingly.
TF
p.s. My intention is to update TurdTalksMetals with a new podcast, every day by 4:00 EDT. Today, there will likely be a bit of a delay, however. Thanks for your patience and thanks to all who are supporting the new venture.
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Comments
So now we know why so many thousands more I.R.S. ...
...agents were required.
Someone's going to need to be available to "hunt us down and nail us" for not paying the Obamacare tax:)
http://nation.foxnews.com/business/2010/03/22/irs-hiring-thousands-armed-tax-agents-enforce-obamacare
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2009/09/obama-mandate-is-not-a-tax/
Imagine that, he/they lied again. Or Chief Justice Roberts is a Trojan Horse, or both.
So the politicians lie and
So the politicians lie and call it a "health insurance mandate" because they know that if they call it a "tax", it will never pass.
In front of the court, however, the lawyers call it a "tax".
As a "tax", the "mandate" is ruled constitutional.
Therefore, political lying is now constitutional.
Today's action brought to you by . . .
Susan Powter
WATCH OUT!!
Very close to tripping those sell stops in silver.
Wow, so that was a shocker.
Wow, so that was a shocker. Initial reports that individual mandate slapped down, now we see it has all been upheld.
We are completely and utter in the crapper on this. Here comes a more deficit!
Oh, and by the way, for anybody who doesn't understand or doesn't want to think about it: the US Constitution is hereby dead and does not matter one iota from this point going forward.
Just a fair warning.
I think Texas will be leaving us shortly.
@ TF
touched 26.26, so when/if it breaks this, what are your next levels?
Thank you
reason number one NOT to buy right now.. simple
there has not been capitulation yet.. whoever controls the silver market has done so with genius.. there was capitulation to the UPSIDE last year in that it went up so much so quickly..however, that hasnt happened to the downside... it will, the paper price will capitulate but there wont be a bottom until EVERYBODY throws in the towel.. I am not going to throw in the towel but I must admit, even I hate silver right now.. so maybe that is a sign we are hitting bottom?
@ Really re: No Crash Imminent?
So far I have yet to put anyone on IU. I try to keep an open mind and listen to as many ideas as possible, even when they contradict what I happen to believe.
You can mock those who are stacking/prepping, and maybe their timeline on when a crash will happen is off by days/weeks/months/years. Who knows...maybe you're right and no crash will happen at all.
However, to dismiss most of the above as living in bunkers and hoarding tin foil hats is "stupid and uninformed", to paraphrase your words.
For myself I have a range of preps that includes physical PMs and cash outside the system. No tin foil hats.
Some preppers may be too far off the tangent for your liking, but they're doing what seems right to them. At least show some respect.
You, OTOH feel more comfortable holding cash - and that too is your right. However, if the warning signs continue to move in the direction they are there could well be one morning we all wake up to a sudden paradigm shift....perhaps including an inability to access cash i.e. what's happening with Nat West right now. In that event the opportunity to shift into something else will be gone. You'll spend days/weeks waiting in lines at ATMs and banks, with millions of others, and opportunities to buy phyz at the LCS will be gone or, if available at all, be priced in the stratosphere.
Top that off with governments suddenly trying to deal with the crisis with capital controls and/or bank holidays and/or the intro of new currency to replace the old which is suddenly worthless.
At that point you might reassess your situation regarding the wisdom of holding cash but find it's too late to make the shift into something else.
In other words your faith in cash means that you will miss the chance to shift into phyz PM if and when a big move comes.
For preppers and stackers - if they are wrong about the collapse - they can at least sell their phyz back for your precious cash and likely come out with more cash than they purchased it with.
All in all I think their positions are far more prudent than yours.
Incidentally I only hold enough cash outside the system for shorter term needs. In the event of a Nat West type event I don't want to be wasting time in lines listening to calming words that the system glitch will be corrected shortly.
I say the above NOT because I have any prophetic vision about what is to come, but out of a sense of history - this is the path that debased currencies have always traveled.
So now that…
…Obamacare has been upheld (which I figured would happen) we can look forward to PM's soaring right?
Right?
Any second now…
Woops…
@unthought known, not even
@unthought known, not even close to a bottom yet. Have you seen any upside movement or any desire?
With this ruling, however, everybody (if they aren't already!!) had better be prepping like crazy. Stack it up. This should leave NO doubt in your mind as to where we are heading.
Wow
I agree with Turd I did not expect the SCOTUS decision and I did not expect a beat down with this decision.
Health "insurance"
is like buying car insurance that covers gas, oil, tires, etc., and having to buy it from GM or Exxon-Mobil. It is not insurance against catastrophe. It's the equivalent of paying $5000 to "insure" your car no matter how much you drive it or how bad a driver you are.
Well, in The UK we have had
Well, in The UK we have had National Health payments automatically deducted from salaries for decades (introduced after WWII I believe along with the national pension scheme. The truth of the matter with the pension scheme is that it was designed for those that fought and suffered during those war times (having lost years of working life to the war) to protect and help them. That generation are leaving us little by little and the service just wasn't designed to become this big and to provide ever larger amounts overseen by the government. that is the truth of the matter in the UK anyway.
Back to The US. Tough call. Not being American, I cannot really comment. Having the national health service in The UK has been a blessing to many over the decades even if the waiting lists are long and every has a good old moan about it all - a national past time in The UK :) (private insurance is way to expensive for the ordinary man in The UK).
This is not really my fight here so I shall withdraw and let you guy and gals across the ocean sort out the pros and cons. Good luck :)
thinking that the economy
thinking that the economy might soon be in desperate need of some benny clownbucks to counteract this monstrosity?
It's up to each of you
EVERY one here needs to contact your Representatives, and your Senator that's up for re-election, and tell them if they don't sign a pledge to repeal Obamacare that you will vote for their opponent.
***********
Harry Reid live on FBN live.......that little rat bastard is spiking the ball. He's my senator and I hate his f**king guts.
@treefrog - Absolutely SuperPac can be The People...
.... the problem, though, is that most of the PACs are funded by corporations utilizing the ruling that they are now people.... that's my problem with this.... Corporations should not be viewed as People, because they are merely legal constructs. They are abusing the system to drown out the true voice of The People. Like everything, there are examples that can be made for either side of the issue. The driver is that Corporations are able to leverage their vast sums of money leaving little to no room for doing what may be right for the many and to their detriment.....
@ opticsguy
Health "insurance"
is like buying car insurance that covers gas, oil, tires, etc., and having to buy it from GM or Exxon-Mobil. It is not insurance against catastrophe. It's the equivalent of paying $5000 to "insure" your car no matter how much you drive it or how bad a driver you are.
--------------------------------------------------------
Yeah, I'm old enough to remember when health insurance was called "catastrophic" medical coverage...in other words, to be used for hospitalization, not doctor visits. And doctor visits averaged $15-$20 per visit because of same.
SCOTUS on Obamacare
Cows on a dairy farm don't pay for or control their healthcare They get what the farmer decides they get based on his best interest. Why should tax-cows on the tax farm expect any different?
Pools
The big deal is that there will be health insurance pools right? The prices won't rise drastically (LMFAO) because those of use that run marathons will help offset the morbidly obese, those with cancer, etc. The penalty is 700$, starting in 2016. So...If I am in excellent health, and my minimum health care cost is more than 700$, doesn't it make more sense for me to pay the TAX, then pay for others?
What about my VA healthcare?
What about seniors with SSA healthcare?
What about the many states that haven't even started setting up the pools yet?
What about all the work left to be done?
I am very surprised by this, but not the beatdown in Ag.
"The Internal Revenue Service wants to add about 4,000 agents to hunt down tax cheats and still plans to spend $303 million building a system to oversee Obamacare even though its future looks bleak in the U.S. Supreme Court."
http://washingtonexaminer.com/article/416051
Another PM Power Dive
It wasn't that many years ago when a $0.10 move in silver IN A DAY was considered HUGE.
Today it happens in less time than it takes to refill my coffee.
All we can do is sit back and watch yet again as the PM prices get dialed down. And up. And down. And up. Again, and again, and again.
And somewhere in the bowels of Wall Street (or should I say the bowel that is Wall Street) there are traders making another killing, while the rest of us wait and wonder how much longer these *ssholes can keep this crap going.
In protest I would boycott anything made by Wall Street, if they actually made anything.
USD is going to soar based on
USD is going to soar based on this ruling. The biggest tax in our history has just been passed.
Penalty for no insurance
penalty for no insurance, in $, via the income tax system. (according to fox news live broadcast)
2014*285
2015*975
2016*1875
All we can do is sit back and
All we can do is sit back and watch yet again as the PM prices get dialed down. And up. And down. And up. Again, and again, and again.
Good post, but you mean down. And down. And down. Again, and again, and again.
Wake me up when they get dialed up. ;)
FLUX CAPACITOR FACTORY
It looks like we will have to relocate our time traveling flux capacitor factory to Mexico or South America. If we slowly lay off the American workers and build a new factory by next year, we will avoid the new TAX and our stock will rocket higher. The key to the market for manufacturing now will be to diversify (that means move asap).
TURD! or ANYONE! Can You Explain to Me Why ...
The Cartel would ever have to cover their short metal positions. If 'they' are 'making the market' (or in bed with the market maker) why can't they just 'sell' their short position the guy in the office 'next door'. Its essentially a wash, but, very effective in making the price sink on the tape?
Silver Get's Weaker
Each time it hit's this level so Turd's prediction looking correct so far. I thought we might get one more squeeze to the upside first but oh well. Harvey stated yesterday that;
"I think we will lose around 5,000 contracts each for the next two days which may leave us with around 6,000 contracts standing or 30 million oz. That may be very difficult for our bankers to handle."
I think if Obamacare had been
I think if Obamacare had been declared unconstitutional, we would have had the same market effect.
I think everyone knows why.
I'm ready to do some more stacking if these stops are tripped.
B.O. Denies That It Is A Tax
Ha ha. "Falling into a pile of sh*t and coming out...smelling like a bouquet of roses". Smartest president ever /s
So what happens to the thousands of "Obamacare" waivers issued by this administration? Are these people/organizations in danger of "tax evasion"?
Really_
Why bother coming on here except to be sandpaper?
You're earning a quick reputation on here imho as being abrasive and anti TF and anti-TFMR community in case you didn't realize it or care. Keep it up and see how far it gets you.
I don't think a obvious burr will last long on here.
JMHO...Have a nice day.
This metals smackdown is
This metals smackdown is clearly a reaction to Snoop Dogg getting busted.