Gone...For Good?
For weeks, I and others have been telling you about massive sovereign and central bank demand for physical metal at the current paper price. From this demand alone, we can infer quite a few things. Today, I can take it one step further.
First, some background. Members of "Turd's Army" become subscribers to Andrew Maguire's "DayTrades" and "MetalsTrades" service. This service allows traders to follow Andy's actions, thereby learning how and when Andy affects trades in the gold and silver markets. In it's own right, the service is very effective at producing consistent, monthly returns for his clients and the "Army". However, subscribers also have access to Andy's weekly "Market Commentary", which he posts every weekend. This commentary is always informative and provides subscribers with a sort "insider's perspective" which simply cannot be found anywhere else on the internet. No one has more experience, more wisdom and more contacts than Andy and, without question, subscribers benefit from the access he provides.
Similarly, I like to think that everyone here in Turdville benefits from the access that I am able to provide. I receive a lot of on-the-record and off-the-record information and I try to pass along as much of it as I can. Some of it is just speculation and some of it is the sort of "inside baseball" stuff that I attempt to further refine into nuggets that can help you plan for the future.
All of that said, what we now know is this. Beginning some time ago, but continuing today at an accelerating pace, physical metal is being purchased in London and then delivered out of the system. Under "normal" circumstances, this is not necessarily unusual. The bullion banks simply expect this metal to return to them at some point, where it can be re-leased, re-hypothecated and re-delivered in the future. This is how it has worked for decades. However, this time it's different.
What I have learned and have since been able to confirm via a second source is this: London Good Delivery bars are being delivered to Eastern buyers. Instead of being vaulted inside the LBMA system, these bars are being sent directly to refiners. The bars are then being melted and recast in 1 kilogram sizes. The new bars are then being stamped with official, government insignia and sent on to vaults outside of the LBMA system and points east, never to return again.
What does this mean and why is this important? Quite clearly this information, if accurate, has several significant ramifications:
- The Chinese and others are preparing for a new system. Whether it's simply a new gold pricing and delivery system to replace the LBMA/Comex or whether it's a new global trade settlement system that is guaranteed with gold is impossible to say, at this point.
- The physical gold supply of the LBMA and secondarily the Comex, much of which has been acquired/supplied through leasing, is being rapidly depleted and will not be coming back.
- The bullion banks, which have profited for years from leasing, trading, vaulting and the like, are about to feel the rather dramatic effects of this supply depletion.
As this pertains to the banks, last week I wrote this ( http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3893/still-pounding-away) and I think the auto dealer analogy is still a good one here. IF China and others are buying gold in London and IF the bullion banks are delivering to them leased and rehypothecated gold and IF the Chinese are taking this gold and melting it and IF they are then recasting it into non-LBMA, 1-kg bars, then the bullion banks have a serious problem on their hands. The delivered gold isn't coming back into "the system". It is no longer in "London Good Delivery" form. It's gone. For good.
My advice to you today is to ponder this information and its implications. Ask yourself these questions:
- If you vault gold within the current system, do you really own it?
- If the banks begin to scramble for physical metal, will paper price trade higher or lower?
- If the Chinese and others are planning for a new, international trade settlement system to supplant the U.S. dollar as reserve currency, what does that mean for the future value of the dollar? What would that mean for the future value of all fiat currency? What would that mean for the future value of gold and silver?
Perhaps now would be a good time to go back and review this post, too. (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3885/last-desperate-acts) At 34,000+ views, most of you have already read it. Maybe it's time to read it again.
Think. Look around. Trust your instincts. Prepare accordingly.
TF
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Comments
June 21, 2012 significance?
Turd has mentioned June 21, 2012 several times as an important date " I am still of the ardent belief that this summer (June 21 to Sept 21) is going to see some explosive moves in the metals, particularly silver."
Santa as well has referenced June 21, 2012 many times in the past but not much recently.
What is the significance of June 21, 2012?
It's Not Bullions Banks With the Problem
If gold is being removed from the bullion banks, never to be returned again, it's not the bullion banks who have the problem - it's those who store their allocated or unallocated PMs with those bullion banks.
If push comes to shove and the vaults are one day empty of PMs, won't a force majeure be declared allowing the bullions banks to walk free of any and all claims?
Edit: 32nd!!
@Katie
I think the basis for the silver story is that silver started to be seriously consumed in the 90s, and all of the available stockpiles are now gone. With gold - it's not consumed.
Ultimately, silver consumption is going to drive prices higher at a pace faster than gold, because gold isn't consumed. Stories like this that emphasize the changing dynamics for gold are certainly cause for panic in those that stack a lot of ag - but Silver has been on it's way to being "gone for good" for almost 20 years now.
Now take that with the end of fiat and you have where we are now. AG was a story before the "end of fiat" was a story.
(No subject)
In regards to Santa and the June 21 date, did you all see his response yesterday to somebody who emailed him? Totally ridiculous response. From the website:
-------------------
Dear Jim,
Thank you for all you do! Your website is an important part of my day. I have been following you for 4 years now and remember back when you gave the date of June 21, 2012. I wondered if it still held some importance?
I have 9 children and have listened to you and tried to get as prepared as I can so again Thank You.
CIGA Brian
Dear Brian,
Has June not been exciting enough so far?
Jim
---------------------
Translation: I made that date up and hasn't it been so fun watching gold consolidate for the past 6 weeks!?
Why doesn't he simply say "yeah, that was a number of years ago and it is no longer valid..."
London Supply & GLD
Stress in the London gold inventory will likely show up in GLD inventory...which has risen the last few days, btw.
Victor has done a very good job explaining why: http://victorthecleaner.wordpress.com/2012/06/01/gld-the-central-bank-of-the-bullion-banks/ or if you prefer, FOFOA http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/gld-talk-continued.html
@Ivars: all fixed! On trading long & short, no, they alternate, usually by referring to Bollinger Bands in a ranging or choppy market. Most day traders lose money both ways.
@Dr G: The OTC spot market is many, many times the size of the Comex futures market. If any venue or type of trading would overwhelm the other I cannot see how futures would overwhelm spot, despite all the claims to the contrary. A thin market on Globex is a thin market on the OTC as well, they both correlate instantly on price but with the OTC trading many times the volume.
+1
"Gold and silver going DOWN today is a VERY GOOD SIGN for tomorrow!!!" (TF)
+1 I agree!
Was thinking of this scenario after the, "Will Tuesday be Terrible or Happy?," thread's comment: "What a great opportunity, once again, for The Cartels to allow a break out of these patterns." (TF)
(TF) - The Great Turd Ferguson himself!
The only other options would be flat (not gonna happen) and drop further (lower prices can't be sustained due to very high demand, futures internals, etc.,) IMHO.
Sofar i really didn't count
Sofar i really didn't count on any significant easing from the FED tomorrow, but
Copper...up
Oil...up
Dow...up
Nasdaq...up
S&P...up
USD...down
and
Gold/silver down? I'm starting to doubt myself.
Gone for Good
I am a long suffering silver stacker who believes that in the end the gold/silver ratio will eventually return to the mean of 1-12 or so. However, in the meantime I put faith in the fact that Japan is heavily investing in solar power along with the Chinese, Germany and others, silver has many other uses, oft discussed here, before one even begins factoring in the monetary/barter value. Joe Public is still not involved in precious metals to any great extent thanks to the MSM and governments are tied to fiat which means more printing & eventual inflation. (Until govts get to the fairytale stage of realising that debts need to be hugely written down, & banksters destroyed, then pgms remain a good hedge imho.) As Martin Armstrong indicated, gold (and therefore silver) remain a good hedge against what your GOVT may do.
This all means that ongoing demand will continue to put some sort of floor under the physical pgm price with plenty of upside. If you have been stacking then it is sensible imho to continue to accumulate physical on any price weakness as often advised by TF.
So the paper price may collapse in a dash for liquidity in any major market sell off, but regularly buying phyzz has to be the right call surely?
Some of you may know of Nadeem Walayat from http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/
This is an excerpt from his recent missive:
Fundamental Inflationary Background
The fundamental background is that of the world markets about to be exposed to another wave of highly inflationary central bank money printing liquidity. I have covered at length over the past few years to explain why deflationists are wrong in their mantra of debt deleveraging deflation that only really exists in their theoretical models, despite REAL and ongoing inflation, the usual suspects from the mainstream press right through to the BlogosFear still continue pounding away at the non existant Deflation argument, despite the fact that even countries such as Greece that have been in economic meltdown have suffered INFLATION (Greece 10% Inflation over the past 3 years).
Pause there for a moment and think about that. Greece has had 10% INFLATION Whilst its economy has collapsed by more than 16%, whilst average workers wages have collapsed by more than 20%. Greece illustrates the difference between the REAL world and THEORY!
I have explained this countless times that the destruction of Supply is greater than the destruction of demand because people who lose their jobs do not stop consuming, and this consumption is financed via debt, deficits and sale of assets which is why Greece has Inflation which is why There Won't be DEFLATION.
Deflationists Really Are Fools
Bluntly, they just don't get! This is the problem when people follow academia, follow theory of what should happen, for academics are good at only one thing which is to write reams and reams of text that drowns out market logic.
Deflationists such as Krugman and his disciples bang on and on about deflation, about destruction of demand, that will result in deflation, about debt deleveraging that will result in deflation. What the deflation fools remain blind to is the fact that the central banks such as the Fed, and the Bank of England have been stuffing every orifice of the deleveraging banks with free money which results in artificial profits as the banks risks / debts are being systematically transferred to the central banks balance sheets. Which is WHY FALLING DEMAND and FALLING WAGES are NOT resulting in Deflation! because in totality, there HAS BEEN NO DEBT DELEVERAGING, TOTAL DEBT IN FACT CONTINUES TO EXPAND as central banks MONETIZE GOVERNMENT DEBT and in some cases EXPOENENTIALLY. And not only that but money printing AKA QE is far worse for an economy than Debt money (bank created credit) because it REALLY has just been conjured out of thin air with no economic activity to justify its creation.
This is why asset prices WILL rise, ALL prices including assets because of central bank QE which should not just be seen as free money for the banks but direct deliberate debasement of the currency. Unlike bank credit It WILL NEVER be destroyed instead feeds the Inflation Mega-trend which I termed in March 2009 as QE really being Quantitative Inflation.
I know this may be getting rather complicated, so if you want to understand only one thing, know this that money printing by central banks is highly inflationary, highly corrosive to the purchasing power of a currency, which is why despite all of the academic reasons why we 'should' have deflation in reality we have INFLATION.
So I will leave the deflation fools to keep crying Deflation all the way to HYPERINFLATION, and even then they will say they were right because AFTER deflation supposedly comes Hyperinflation, despite the fact there never was ANY Deflation, not even for bankrupt Greece.
Hmmmm where will all those Hedge fund/Pension fund billions if more Queasy Money is announced tomorrow?
New EU rules will force pension funds to hold more Govt bonds
Millions will see pensions slashed by up to 20% as new EU rules are set to send annuities plummeting
Annuities, which set retirement income for life, have already fallen to historic lows because of the impact of quantitative easing.
At present, a pension annuity fund may invest 20 per cent in low-yield gilts and the rest in riskier corporate bonds which have a higher rate of return.
The return on government bonds has fallen in value because the Bank of England's quantitative easing programme has involved buying them up to inject an extra £325bn into the economy and investors are moving their funds from risky countries like Greece to Britain. This extra demand drives up their prices but consequently means that interest rate yields plunge.
Yields have fallen to historic lows, and the situation could get worse.
FAO TF. - Paul Craig Roberts..poss future interviewee?
One on One with Paul Craig Roberts
There has been plenty of calamitous news surrounding the European debt crisis. Greece is insolvent. Spain just got a big bank bailout, and Ireland wants a new bailout deal. No matter how bad it looks in the EU, Paul Craig Roberts says the problems in Europe are “nowhere near as big as the ones here.” The U.S. is printing massive amounts of money to paper over the mess, but it won’t work. Roberts says a collapse of the U.S. dollar could happen at any moment. It could be triggered by any number of things such as war or a derivatives meltdown. When a former Assistant Treasury Secretary (under the Reagan Administration) and a PhD in economics sounds the alarm bell, people should take cover. Dr. Roberts says, “The cliff dive we are experiencing in housing isn’t over,” and precious metals prices are “being suppressed.” Roberts says, “Gold prices should be rising. Why? Because the debt is rising.” What is the reason why Dr. Roberts thinks the suppression game has gotten so intense? Dr. Roberts says, “The fact that they are driving the price down suggests to me the situation is getting more desperate.” Greg Hunter interviews Paul Craig Roberts one on one about these subjects and more.
Sell the rumor, sell the news
Ho hum- another day in PM shit-stained manipulation world. So, before it was buy the rumor, sell the news. Today feels like sell the rumor ( no QE ) and sell the news tomorrow (no QE). Hard to make sense of anything anymore. Print like crazy and everyone can see it, no impact. Supposedly FIVE THOUSAND TONS moved to the east, no impact. Greece, Spain, portugal, Italy and then France insolvent, no impact. 16 T in debt, no impact.
If those things haven't gotten the metals moving, please tell me what will? While I would love to believe Jim Willie and others like him, where are the facts we can check? Rather than just rumors and "sources" that can't be verified. I am sorry to be a bummer, but if all of the above can't get silver above 30, what on earth will do it?
Japanese Solar Market about to Boom
Last year, the Japanese government announced the creation of a national feed-in tariff (FiT) for solar, joining Germany and China in creating robust public policy to drive deployment of renewable energy. The program is set to launch on July 1, 2012 and solar is regarded as one of the brightest spots in the Japanese recovery from the tsunami.
http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/Japanese-Solar-Marke...
RETAIL INVESTORS ARE FICKLE...
THE RETAIL INVESTOR GETS BAMBOOZLED AGAIN
As we can see from many sources, the BIG PLAYERS have increased their gold and silver purchases lately, while the RETAIL INVESTOR cuts back. This is typical. I hate to say it... RETAIL INVESTORS are DUMB as a BOX OF ROCKS. What has happened is that the public has been put into a trance by MSM that this CHARADE will go on forever. They now believe that the FED and Central Banks can just keep kicking the can down the road until they retire or die.
Some think that the decline in SILVER EAGLE purchases are due to the downturn in the economy and that silver is now in SURPLUS. So, the rational is that silver will fall during a DEFLATION. While this is true when Gold and Silver are money, it is not true at the end of a FIAT MONETARY SYSTEM.
When I spoke with Harvey Organ on the phone, I found it very surprising that we both agreed that the big decline in gold and silver prices in 2008 were not due to DEFLATIONARY FORCES, but rather a complete manipulation and takedown by the FED and Central Govts. So, the reason Silver did not keep heading towards $50 in 2008 was due to a massive takedown. That is why when people say that the PARABOLIC move in silver in the beginning of 2011 was not sustainable... all I can do is LAUGH.
Why? Because the price of silver should already be past that level. It gets so tiresome to listen to the MORONS who should know better. I also can empathize with JIM WILLIE when he stated that he laughed at questions concerning "QE". I am so tired of the QE debate it is sickening.
Anyhow, for all of those who think SILVER may be in trouble due to the downturn in Silver Eagle sales... Here are some charts to "SET THINGS STRAIGHT":
As you can see, RETAIL INVESTORS have bought a heck of a lot less Gold than Silver Eagles. You would think if silver was in jeopardy, than Gold sales would be much higher than silver sales. Here we can see that AMERICANS are still inept when it comes to understanding the value of REAL MONEY.
Don't take this too harshly.... CANADIAN RETAIL INVESTORS are just as dense as their American Counterparts. If we look at the graph below, we can see that both OFFICIAL GOVT COINS have declined about the same percentage:
I know... some of you are saying it may be a GRAND CONSPIRACY that these sales are down so much. Why couldn't these organizations be manipulating their figures... some may say? While that may be true in theory, I have had conversations with several of the top bullion dealers. APMEX told me that their sales were down about the same percentage as the OFFICIAL COIN SALES. Now unless APMEX is part of the grand Conspiracy... then we just have to realize that RETAIL INVESTORS are dumb as a box of rocks.
This is why I believe one day the WHOLE WORLD WILL CHANGE. Sure it will get worse as time goes by and there will be several attempts and bailouts before-hand... but one day the DOOR WILL LOCK and it will be over for the GRAND FACADE.
That is why it is best to buy PHYSICAL NOW and not try to time the market. Because, you may have more FIAT MONEY to buy gold and silver, but it may come at a time when there is NO OFFER for anyone holding FIAT. In the END, the BIG PLAYERS may have beat the public to the punch.
GOOD LUCK..
What will do it?
2 things:
1. central banks all over the world, especially our Fed, and
2. time.
We just need be patient and keep stacking on dips.
At this point, we should also be stacking miners (their prices have been stretched far below historic norms relative to PM prices, especially silver).
@York Rite
What Sinclair has tried to do over the last years is warn people of the increasing levels of corruption - in politics, finance, the economy, etc. - and counsel them to prepare for difficult times ahead.
I could give a sh*t that he didn't precisely call $1,900 gold in 2010 (or whatever), or that gold has been pushed down and range-bound for the last months. He and his colleagues, e.g., Dan Norcini, have provided us with excellent service over the years and they're not asking to be paid a single penny for it.
There are so many variables at play that TPTB can pick and choose how they're going to play the market next in the short term. Anybody remember how Enron basically rewrote the book and broke business theory back in the day? They looked invincible. Nobody could figure out how they did it. Until, that is, Enron itself broke and everybody saw that it was nothing more than a ponzi scheme of sorts. We're seeing a similar situation here. For the time being, TPTB can stave off economic collapse and it looks like they've rewritten the book too. But, it's a ponzi scheme at heart and it will break - in fact, it's in the process of breaking as we speak.
I give Sinclair huge credit for unveiling this corruption to the general public. If you want to quibble over minor details, go right ahead. But, if you'd started PM investing when he first began writing about the situation, you'd be sitting pretty right now and thanking him instead of bleating about a few months difference here or there.
!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47868321
spin
(;
"CIGA Brian" is wrong
The BIG DAY is June 28, not June 21.
June 28 is when trading with Iran is excluded from the SWIFT system and Santa has consistently said that this date will mark the beginning of the end for dollar supremacy.
Look at Facebook. On an
Look at Facebook. On an absolute tear the past week. Up like 5% yesterday or something crazy like that. What a side show.
@Turd, thanks for the confirmation of the SWIFT date.
@SRSRocco
Great work and sage advice. Thanks again!
re/Armstrong
He makes some good points but misses some important distinctions. First, the fact that gold competes against fiat currency means it is in the interest of both government and industry to manipulate prices. This is not true of wheat, for example, where the government will look to crack down on any corruption it finds, rather than encourage it either overtly or covertly.
Second, free gold is about allowing the free market in physical gold, not the fact that price is suppressed. I don't believe it is that suppressed right now, at least not to a great order of magnitude. However, once its true value as a store of wealth/savings rises to what it should be, after paper is seen not to be a store of value, and this happens in the WEST, that will drive the value of gold up beyond normal inflation or commodity pricing. In fact, that is what makes gold unique - it really is only a commodity in a function as money - not on the transaction sense, but the store of value sense. That has been supplanted for a very long time and moved into financial instruments. These are now vastly over-extended and over-priced, as the systemic risk is not priced in, and gold's lack of risk is vastly undervalued. So it is a perception change that will happen - not a price suppression scheme. That is only a temporary measure to control gold spiking and getting too much attention, and a delaying tactic, just like QE is a delaying tactic. These things will keep working until one day, much more suddenly than we think, the whole rotten edifice will collapse.
I suppose Mr. Armstrong has
I suppose Mr. Armstrong has never heard of a naked short, and as such, he really isn't fit to comment on anything related to paper markets of any type.
Where there's Smoke there's...
I smell smoke! Something rotten is burning!
Why would the LBMA share holders sell out? After some 100+ years of very profitable business.
Why did the Rothchild's shed their LBMA shares in 1994, ending their 100+ years of membership?
Could it be that the Chinese and the Hong Kong Exchange have bought an almost empty vault?
MF Global had a 4.3% stake in the LBMA JP Morgan bought those shares for $34 million, while acting as a trustee in the MFG bankruptcy! They said the auction was open and fair! Yah. Right.
That same 4.3% of the LBMA is now worth $104 million to the 'Morgue', at the sale of the LBMA!
Nice eh? Over a 100%+ profit for the 'Morgue' in not quite one year! Talk about rotten!
The Chinese are melting down the BIG, good for delivery London bars because of just that - they are to big for todays modern gold market. The far east gold market much prefers the one kilo bars. Besides, when the revaluation of gold comes about, and it will, the smaller size bars makes sense for todays global gold markets.
(No subject)
melting the gold
Question....are they melting the gold...........to make sure it does not contain tungsten ??
Tomorrow and Thursday May Be Good Buying Opportunities
I just do believe the Fed is going to announce anything suggesting more easing when the Dow and S&P are rocking northwards. I am convinced we will need to see markets significantly beaten downwards for them to have the 'justification' for more overt QE. I say gold and silver get rocked the next two days.
re: CIA and NSA infiltrating Microsoft?
A reply from another site about the story:
Of course, even the intel processors have undocumented features that allow code modification without causing an exception 13 or blue screen of death. There are features in the processors that were requested by our government which would give access to supervisory levels within the processor. I found one of them by accident and years later when I actually worked for Intel I found out about the modification/specification put in for the government and they were requested by the NSA, CIA and FBI. They can tap into our computers whenever they feel like it and there's not a thing you can do about it. There is even a hardware feature that will allow changes to the microcode so they can create their own instruction set separate from what regular programmers use. So since the hardware was designed for it, the software had to be written for it. Nice huh?
Well...
...that would certainly be a side benefit of melting the original bars, now wouldn't it?
More importantly, if you are setting up a new system, having your own bars with your own weights and markings would certainly add credibility to what you are doing.
Additionally, rather than a bar weighing roughly 400 troy ounces (using traditional, Anglo measurements), would you not want your new system to be based upon the more current, globally-recognized metric of 1 kilogram?
FWIW
Fed Will Ease Monetary Policy This Week: Goldman’s Hatzius
The U.S. central bank will most likely ease monetary policy when it meets this week as recent data point to a worsening labor market and the crisis in Europe intensifies, Goldman Sachs said.
Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/47868321
btw
be on the lookout for some pounding on the Globex this afternoon, consistent with recent "Terrible Tuesdays"...
And if this is correct, you
And if this is correct, you have your rationale for beating price down this afternoon and overnight, into early tomorrow.
Suck price down and draw in as many new spec shorts as possible before exploding price higher post-12:30 tomorrow.