Updated Gold and Silver Charts

As you might imagine, yesterday's action has changed the complexion of the charts just a bit so I figured we should spend some time today trying to figure where we are going from here.

First of all, the FB/Ag contest is already over. I know of at least one winner, "thesandbox". Did anyone else have 6/1/12? At any rate, Mr. SandBox needs to email me his shipping info so that I can send off his new, genuine and authentic TF hat.

Next, if you haven't yet watched all or parts of "Rollover", I suggest you do it soon. The links are all contained within the "sticky" post at the top of the homepage. Santa expanded a little bit on this theme last night. Here's the email he sent out:

My Dear Extended Family,
QE to infinity is for certain. About that there is no question whatsoever. It cannot be avoided.
Operation twist is a damn joke stimulation wise. At this point in time it is a dark joke.
The Fed is playing with something worse than fire. That fire is posted in a video today on www.jsmineset.com. This video references a worldwide financial crisis that if it starts cannot be stopped by any power on the planet.
They are already easing up on the rhetoric. The Fed will downright panic as the world's economies go from slow to dropping out of sight. That is what is on the plate tonight, this night, right here and now.
Safety only exists in gold bullion and in the outrageously depressed good gold shares now shorted out of sight.

Love, Santa

Yikes! Sounds like everything really is as serious as it seems. Perhaps you should read this next: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2153324/Markets-facing-rerun-Great-Panic-2008-Head-World-Bank-warns-Europe-heading-danger-zone-bleakest-day-global-economy-year.html And this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/why-grexit-would-make-lehman-look-childs-play

Regardless, it looks like next week is going to be quite interesting. One item not getting a lot of national attention (yet) is the recall election in Wisconsin on Tuesday. Sort of like the French elections of last month, the vote on Tuesday will be framed as an American referendum on "austerity". Watch this one closely. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/01/us/politics/wisconsin-recall-vote-could-foretell-november-election.html

This week's CoT is even more bullish than I had hoped, particularly in gold. Here is a link to the report: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1338579201.php And here is a C&P of the comments I posted immediately following its release:

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on June 1, 2012 - 2:48pm.
MODERATOR
Granted, we've already worked off some of this. Regardless, nearly historic numbers.
In gold, the Cartel net short ratio fell to 1.76:1. The lowest I've ever seen it. Again, for the sake of comparison, the 4/5/11 net short ratio was 2.64:1 and the 2/28/12 net short ratio was 2.69:1, so the Gold Cartel net short position has now been cut in half from those peaks. Additionally, LargeSpecShorts added 5281 contracts (10%). This is exactly what I've been telling you for weeks and is, in large part, the cause of the explosive rally today.
In silver, the Cartel net short fell to 1.31:1 and a total, aggregate number of just 14,334. This likely means that JPM is now under 10,000 in net short. By far, the lowest I've ever seen. For the sake of comparison, the 4/5/11 ratio was 2.69:1 and the 2/28/12 ratio was 2.32:1. This means that the net short ratio of The Silver Cartel has been trimmed by 75% since 2/28/12. Additionally, the total long position of The Cartel is 45,817 contracts. On 4/5/11, it was 33,413 and on 2/28/12 it was 33,802. So, the total Cartel long position is up almost 36% in just 3 months. Large specs went short silver, too. Spec longs shed 1519 and spec shorts added 720. Ooops. Dummies.
All in all, another great CoT.

I want to draw your attention to the underlined part of the commentary as I have not heard anyone else mention this yet. Recall that on 2/28/12, silver was winning The Battle Royale and breaking out. Despite the announcement of LTRO2 the next day, the metals were smashed lower and the bottom to this latest manipulation has only recently been found. On the 2/28/12 CoT, the net short ratio of The Silver Cartel was 2.32:1. As of last Tuesday, their net short ratio was just 1.31:1. This is a reduction of over 75%!!! Claim what you want about fair and free markets and no manipulation. If you do so, you are a fool. This entire "episode" was manufactured to allow The Evil Empire to reduce their short position...and it worked!

I'll give you one more. On 4/5/11, just prior to the beginning of The Great EE Panic which led to a near signal failure later that month, the cumulative net short position of the EE was 56,414 contracts, i.e. they were short 89,827 and long 33,413. As of last Tuesday, the cumulative position is just 14,434 contracts as they are currently short 60,151 and long 45,817. Do you see how significant this is? Do you understand now why silver has been mercilessly attacked over the past 13 months?

75% is a huge reduction but they're not net long yet, are they? Perhaps this is why silver is still rangebound between 27 and 29 while gold broke out yesterday? I don't know. We'll get some answers next Friday. Regardless, I think that silver is about to run away from them for reasons they aren't anticipating. If they were smart, The EE would BUY here, cover as many of their remaining shorts as possible and then get out and let silver run free. If they don't, they face disaster. This is your chance, Ms. Masters. I encourage you to act now, before it's too late.

Here are your charts. First, let's look at gold. Here's the long-term, weekly chart:

On the daily chart below, you can see the importance of maintaining a toe-hold above 1610. For the week ahead, let's hope that gold extends its gains on Monday and then survives some attempts to sell it back on Tuesday. After that, let's hope that gold can begin to solidify and base above 1650.

Here is your updated, long-term silver chart. It looks just fine.

As mentioned above, silver remains rangebound on the shorter-term charts. Perhaps The Forces of Darkness will attempt to keep it there while they continue cover and flatten their net position. Perhaps they may not be afforded that opportunity. The next few days will tell us a lot. For now, $29 is our target. After that, $30.

OK, that's all for today. Remember that London is closed on both Monday and Tuesday for Her Majesty's "Diamond Jubilee". Not having a physical trade will allow for greater level on shenanigans on the Comex so be prepared for some volatility. Now, go get some R&R. Next week promises to be crazy.

TF

240 Comments

proformatrillionaire's picture

First again!

Thanks Turd for the weekend post. Looks like things are swirling to the bottom of the toilet faster than many have thought.

RRJJ's picture

Great post Turd! Looking

Great post Turd! Looking forward to next week.

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

You are a classy guy, Turd

You have taken a whole mess of shit on the pages of your own blog, particularly over the last month-  posters openly questioning your honesty and mocking your sources, calling you a cult-leader, ridiculing your bottom call at the 1525 area in gold, people basically calling you an idiot for "not recognizing that the trend is down" when you said we are priming for a big move up...   you have taken a ton of crap, frankly.

And now, with a. the bottom you called holding perfectly, and b. a powerful upwards move, both in the face of the nay-sayers, YOU DON'T EVEN TAKE A VICTORY LAP? No waving to the crowd?  No preening?  No How you like me now, bitchez!!! ? 

You have more class than I do, my friend.  Great, great job.  

thesandbox's picture

HAT

so is my hat official? :)

....sent you an email with the address.

Thanks!!!

Eric Original's picture

Pining

your post was begging for this link

DBean's picture

Pining - I'll second that..

And, if my family gets through the approaching storm in any reasonably sound way, a lot of credit goes to Turd and to many of the people that post on this website. The good people here far outnumber the bad.

Byzantium's picture

Hmmm, a different perspective

"Do you see how significant this is? Do you understand now why silver has been mercilessly attacked over the past 13 months?"

​Hi Turd,

of course what you say is credible, and we all want to believe it, that the Cartel is preparing to go long.

But here is another perspective, and please show me the flaw in this reasoning.  

Using nefarious practices x y & z, the Cartel continues its merciless suppression of the silver price, technically more successful than ever before. They have achieved a lower silver price & a demolition of sentiment, while reducing their own net short position to the lowest for years. They even made money out of it, by skinning longs & shorts in turn. 

If necessary, and with Fed backing, they are ready to go as short as is necessary to kill any silver recovery. But first of course, in cahoots with the CME etc, they will set some bull traps that will haunt us silver bugs for years, and bankrupt many of us.

So, are they ready to go long, or are they more technically formidable and determined than ever?

I am a silver bug, but I do respect the enemy; JPM is at the heart of the current corrupt system, and I believe, will fight to the bitter end to defend it, and they will fight PMs always. Being long silver will not help them survive if the current system ends, they are the system.

Byzantium's picture

After such a day as yesterday...

I am euphoric as I am sure most of us are.

There seems to be less online material than usual about the PMs though, when I would have expected more (unless I am looking at the wrong places).

Maybe everybody is cautious; we have had so many false dawns. 

Don't stop hedging your bets people, be ready for disorderly price moves in either, or both directions!

Really-'s picture

Turd, I have to disagree when

....you say the vote on Tuesday (in the Wisconsin Governor Recall Election) will be an American referendum on "austerity" and compare it to the French election.  That's too much of a stretch.  The Wisconsin election is more a referendum on the popularity of unions in this country.  There is a reason why  membership in one of Wisconsin's major unions  has dropped by over 50% during the past year.  The Governor will be re-elected, what will that tell you as to how it relates to France's austerity measures?

Torpedo Fish's picture

@ivars

Ivars, are you going to add some new longs at this point or you gonna wait for $30+ ?

iceman321_2k2's picture

Einhorn Mocks Buffett

An amusing read...

Einhorn, founder of Greenlight Capital and board member of Hillel: The Foundation for Jewish Campus Life, is long gold and provided an analogy of his own. “The debate around currencies, cash, and cash equivalents continues. Over the last few years, we have come to doubt whether cash will serve as a good store of value. If you wrapped up all the $100 bills in circulation, it would form a cube about 74 feet per side. If you stacked the money seven feet high, you could store it in a warehouse roughly the size of a football field. The value of all that cash would be about a trillion dollars. In a hundred years, that money will have produced nothing. In a thousand years, it is likely that the cash will either be worthless or worth very little. It will not pay you interest or dividends and it won’t grow earnings, though you could burn it for heat...

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/david-einhorn-mocks-warren-buffetts-stance-on-gold.html/

recaptureamerica's picture

Argentine official denies

Argentine official denies devaluation planned
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/LT_ARGENTINA_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-06-01-16-46-16

First they deny it? Or is that second ?

ivars's picture

@Torpedo Fish-adding longs

I'll wait for it going up above 29-29,5 and then wait for a pullback/place a limit order 0,7 below peak or so . See, the USDx appreciating so fast there can be a pullback, e.g. if there is ECB rate cut. If that happens, I will go all in most likely. Especially, if it happens on Wednesday:). If limit is not caught, I may buy higher.

It was lucky to have USDx move down on Friday, -I was asking for it in the morning as the pressure on PMs from USDx were mounting- giving a breathing space for silver gold where to move up. The opposite may happen soon as USDx is getting "parabolic" to reach 87-88 very fast now (EUR moving further down being the main cause, perhaps Japanese intervention as well, perhaps Canada moving rates down, UK CB telling about more asset buys- USDx should go up next week rather fast, there has to be a moment silver will not catch up a bit).

http://www.centralbanknews.info/2012/06/monetary-policy-week-in-review-2-june.html

Looking at the central bank calendar, the week ahead is set to be a big one in terms of monetary policy meetings.  However the RBA is expected to hold fire at 3.75% this time, likewise the BOC is expected to hold at 1.00%, and the ECB and BoE are expected to hold at 1.00% and 0.50% respectively; and keep their asset purchase programs unchanged.  Of course this does not preclude them from taking action, as the economic and geopolitical backdrop arguably warrants action. Outside of the main central banks, the National Bank of Poland, Central Reserve Bank of Peru, and Banco de Mexico also meet to review monetary policy settings.

 

Jun-05
AUD
Australia
Reserve Bank of Australia
Jun-05
CAD
Canada
Bank of Canada
Jun-06
PLN
Poland
National Bank of Poland
Jun-06
EUR
Eurozone
European Central Bank
Jun-07
GBP
United Kingdom
Bank of England
Jun-07
PEN
Peru
Central Reserve Bank of Peru
Jun-08
MXN
Mexico
Banco de Mexico
bam's picture

Martin Armstrong latest on Gold

Gold

The Monthly Bearish Reversal remains at 1493 so no broader-term sell signal was accomplished yet.Resistance during June begins at 1632 and scales upward to 1732 followed by 1752. Support lies at 1574. We need to see a monly close back above 1675 to suggest a summer rally is likely. But the major resistance remains at 1800. The closing today at 1624 was impressive, but this is the third attempt to break to the downside with a sharp rally back. That tends to imply that the forth time is usually the charm. Remember that before a market blasts to the upside, it must get the majority out of the market throwing in the towel with the fake move to the downside first. That implies we may have to just penetrate last year’s low to accomplish that before setting up the sling-shot move to the upside. That is how the energy is created to swing sharply in the opposite direction. Likewise, every investigation of a crash tried to find the short player conspiracy and never has since 1907. The crash comes ONLY when the majority are long. Scare them, and now you have the biggest selling force ever and no bid. That produces the flash-type crash.

.......

I follow Martin A and Jim Sinclair very closely.   They are often at odds on near term gold prices, as they are right now.  It will be interesting to see how things shake out.

I don't really care what gold does as long as it holds off from a major rise a bit longer.    I've got a few more big purchases to make before I can sit back and clay pidgeon the dips.

Turd Ferguson's picture

I'm not saying that I

MODERATOR

I'm not saying that I personally think it is a referendum on austerity, I'm predicting that the MSM will SPIN it that way, particularly if Gov Walker loses.

ivars's picture

I like that woman-she (or who

I like that woman-she (or who ever is behind) is playing strong hand hard and simple (obama found the scapegoat):

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-02/merkel-rejects-debt-sharing-as-obama-urges-end-to-crisis-cloud.html

bernard's picture

Oil vs. Gasoline Prices Decoupling

oil prices decoupling from gasoline

Swift Boat Vet's picture

Only for you Turd !!!

I watched the whole movie starring that treasonous bitch Jane Fonda.  Haven't watched anything of hers since Nam,  that is until now.  Hope you appreciate my sacrifice ol' buddy o' mine!  

Been buying a roll of '64 Kennedys every now and then since about $32 or so.   I think I'll buy one more (if he's not out yet) this weekend.   I have been feeling an urgency to build my food/misc supplies stores more lately though, and have been putting more FRNs into that than silver lately. 

I do need more brass and Pb though also, and will be rounding out and tuning up reloading equipment and supplies that have been dormant too long.  As an aside, my goal of long term supplies to feed 8 people breakfasts for a year is over 50% complete.  This separate goal is in addition to regular food supplies presently at about 3 maybe 4 months.  If need be,  I plan on helping a couple of elderly widow neighbors of mine too,  hence the extra breakfasts and bulk grains.  May the good Lord above help us all through the coming storm.  

Keep up the good work Turd.  You are a prince among men.

Swifty

33 and a turd's picture

It's Turd's day

Saturday, and the man is on fire.

I appreciate this oasis of sanity and civility in this crazy world

OrangeAlert's picture

My prediction...Just to throw it out there

I think Gold will go up next week, hit 1640-1650 right where Turd says it needs to base over, but won't.  Then the following week crashes back down to $1575 or so (red area), then rockets higher.  The timing of the Fed announcement coincides with this, and if an announcement of QE comes, it only makes sense.  If you look at this chart, 2008 happened similarly.  There was a huge up week, then a little higher, crash, then huge right back and never looked back.  So that's how I plan on playing this.  2012 has been such a similar re-play, it's almost eerie.  Almost like a set-up.  I hope it's not. 

Eman Laer's picture

Jim Rogers from May 31

For all you stackers who want a little encouragement (long term):

"Gold has gone up eleven years in a row and it is consolidating right now. I have not sold any gold, I still own my gold," Rogers tells Newsmax.TV in an exclusive interview.

"If it goes down, I hope I am smart enough to buy more, and I hope I am smart enough to buy more silver, because precious metals are going to make a lot of money for a lot of people in the next decade." 

http://www.newsmax.com/StreetTalk/rogers-gold-prices-metal/2012/05/31/id/440756

OrangeAlert's picture

Pining

Agree with your comments above 100%.  Turd has taken a ton of crap for many months, just the worst in the past couple.  But I just don't get people questioning his honesty/integrity out of all of the things. 

Here's a guy who provides FREE thoughts from years of experience.  For his return, he knows that people are being warned of what's coming.  That's all he's ever claimed to do, and traders followed him here, but from Day 1 it was set up as a site to warn people, and still is. 

Has contacts now that even he can't believe, with people who know the deal and charge money to get their opinions, which he shares FREELY and gets his contacts to allow this FREE information.

When he announced that he was going to charge money people went off on him. What did he do? Worked harder to make this information FREE for the whiners.

I don't know the man.  Never talked to him.  But hanging around lurking at his old blogspot and here, you get a picture of what he's about.  A classy guy, a guy of integrity and honesty and a sincere concern for other people.  To not pick that up about him from reading day in and day out, and to question that is ridiculous.  Obviously they haven't been around long enough, or they are trolls.  Probably the later, sometimes the former.

R man J's picture

I don't know how many Wisconsin Turdites there are

...but I am a Wisconsinite.

I AVOID POLITICS but this has to be said,  sad to say outsiders frame Walker opponents as freedom-fighters. The recall as a Liberty movement? That's a delusion. It's really all about union politics here and rich labor contracts that benefit the union elite and their contributions to the state democrat party trough. 

The thing nobody talks about is that Walker's opponent (Barrett) has been a failing, idea-less mayor of a failed city Milwaukee. He has no jobs plan, no fresh ideas...he is a typical liberal apparatchik.  While Walker has made strides to balance our budget and strengthen our financial position. Things have actually improved here.

Sometimes being the more qualified candidate matters just a little bit.

gatortrader's picture

Gold backed Euro Bonds

Just read this, it seems as though it could start the process of Gold revaluation. Better start betting the farm kids.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/6/2_Don_Coxe_-_Emergency_Fed_Meeting_%26_Gold_Backed_Bonds.html

I_ate_the_crow's picture

R man J

Appreciate the boots on the ground report from Wisconsin but I don't think delusion is the best way to characterize it. Just ordinary people on both sides stuck in the past who can't see that they are pawns on the chess board yet.

They pit the producers and the union members against each other and then the pirates run off with a bunch of gold and count their loot once safely aboard their ships. It's the best reality show on TV. Gives us proles something to argue about, something to be passionate about, an election to think we have an actual vote that counts in......you know, the usual. Barrett had Clinton campaigning for him the other day so obviously he wouldn't do anything better for the people than Walker, i.e. absolutely nothing,  despite what either of their empty soundbytes say to the contrary.

So yeah, nevermind the fact that the entire financial system is a ponzi scheme with a fake currency, time for us ordinary folks to tighten our belts and make sacrifices. Austerity is the biggest farce in the world. I spit in its general direction. The idea of a jobs plan and balanced budget is great, but please forgive me if I don't jump at the chance to make a sacrifice to save mafioso fraud and lawlessness. These shill governors and candidates are there to manufacture drama productions like recall elections and make sure that the people hate each other so much as a result that they wouldn't even think of coming together locally as communities and link with other communities and eventually link with other states to send the leaches packing for good with 10th Amendment monetary solutions.

Austerity has a snow-ball effect. What has all the LTRO's and debt restructuring done for the EU PIGS? Not a thing. In fact it's much worse now. And that's the point. Though it might not be in focus yet, state austerity in America has the same eventual goals, with the added bonus there of making the POLICE so desperate they jump at the chance to get federal funding, the only small caveat being that they have to militarize their force and protect Bildeberg meetings and JP Morgan Chase, etc.

http://www.rdmag.com/News/FeedsAP/2012/05/manufacturing-europe-proposes-banking-union-to-ease-debt-crisis/

The European Commission called Wednesday for a "banking union" that can oversee and, if needed, bail out banks without having to go through national governments. It would have the power to force banks to heal their finances and also have access to a pool of money to rescue banks, lifting pressure off individual countries — like Spain — that are already strapped for cash

As Europe's debt crisis intensifies, top officials say the continent urgently needs a central authority with the financial muscle to fix its broken banks. "What you need is to create a system at the scale of the eurozone that would consolidate the systems that exist in member states," said Nicolas Veron, a fellow at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. "If you have more centralized decision-making for the whole bank restructuring agenda throughout Europe, then you can be tougher because you get a hold of the entire branch."

Riiiiiight.

Fritz's picture

False Dawns?

Since when have we had so many false dawns? It's been on heck of a sunrise for a decade. This is a cloud floating by.

I_ate_the_crow's picture

Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports (CAFR)

Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports (CAFR)

When you hear any of these governors talking about the cuts that need to be made or the taxes that need to be raised, remember that all governments have CAFRs: http://realitybloger.wordpress.com/2012/05/25/california-government-hides-billions-from-taxpayers/

What if I could show you over $ 577 billion in investment fund balances that aren’t being reported by the California State Government on its budget report?

Well that is what I’m about to do…

eyeswideopen's picture

Nice job TF

and, no doubt, a good reason for optimism.

Posts like this bring clarity, support the confidence we all have in our positions, and is a major reason why many of us choose to dedicate some of our time, and add value to this endeavor of yours. You're a class act.

There's more mischief to come folks. The desperation of the Racketeers will see to it. In the end they will be exposed and will fail.

Don't be suprised when one high profile criminal chooses to save himself.  Make no mistake, one of our favored personalities sleeps little. If you're listening closely you can hear the monkeys chattering.

I'm still looking for significant downward movement. Admittedly the techs and numbers do not support this. Cracks and disconnects are forming in the traditional flows and movements of these markets. This is a different and unique time we are witnessing. Let's see what transpires when, for instance, the USD tops and/or reverses. Gold seems to be siphoning a bit of this safe haven (other than USD or UST) play. Armstrong believes this is the beginning of the flight to real assets. American politics will undoubtedly have a role in how long this all takes to play out. SEC and CFTC will begin to pick up the pace.

The silver lining to all of this is...  the longer this resolution takes, the more folks will be awakened. Army of Ants.

koan's picture

Maybe too early

but if not (as Turd is too gracious but I'm not!) - who's up for a naming and shaming session of those that had no problem slinging shit his way of late?!?

lodmund's picture

reality

the general euphoria on here is both astounding and alarming. I am heavily invested in gold and want to see a recovery in price, but one good day on friday absolutely does not mark a recovery.

in technical terms we have had a break below  a long term uptrend line, friday gave us  a retest and potential confirmation of that break as well a revisit to the apex of the triangle. Personally i would look for 2 consecutive closes above 1680 accompanied by some form of meaningful retest of the  upside breakout to confirm that we are now looking up and not down ( or sideways)

the CoT position is deeply encouraging, but as others have pointed out JPM are now at liberty to add the shorts back in silver and if they are desperate they might just do so. If they do I can't see too many buyers emerging to absorb their sell orders.

More positively Gary Savage is firmly calling an intermediate bottom in PMs here and his record of bottom calling is second to none, although he is pretty hopeless when it comes to tops ( and no before anyone alleges it, I am not him in disguise)

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