FUSS
Looks like it's time to add a new acronym.
As discussed here ad nauseam for the past several weeks, our current battle is against the spec shorts, both large and small. These momentum-following, bandwagon-jumping leeches were the primary culprits in driving price all the way down to $1528 and $27. After the initial squeeze on Thursday, the heat was turned up even higher on Friday. Overnight and earlier today, these HFTers tried to push things back down but have since been stymied on the Comex. Let's hope this continues but don't expect them to give up easily.
Over the weekend, Trader Dan pointed out that gold had moved back above its 10-day moving average. This is step one in alleviating the pressure and flipping the WOPRs to "buy" from "sell". Step two will be getting above the 20-day near 1615. He's right about this. Remember, many WOPRs are programmed to run off of technical signals so moving back above key moving averages will help to halt the barrage of sell orders generated by the downside momentum. http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/05/gold-continues-its-bounce.html
I'm seeing chart resistance in that general area, too. Gold held support quite nicely earlier today near $1585 and has since rebounded nearly $10. I suspect that we'll continue to drift around here between 1585 and 1600 for a while, maybe into tomorrow or even Wednesday. I suspect, though, that another surge is coming that will drive price through resistance of 1600-1605 and take it up near the 20-day that Dan mentioned, near 1615. Chart resistance will enter again near 1625.
In silver, price has clearly broken out of the nasty and brutal downtrend channel that had contained it for days. Now, it just needs a spark to begin spooking the weak-handed shorts. It may simply be that gold strength will spill over into silver and drag it higher. Regardless, I firmly believe that the recovery process has begun and I expect silver to begin basing between 29 and 30 very soon. From that "staging area", silver will eventually mount a breakout move toward Battle Royale II.
That's it for now as it's almost 11:00 am EDT. You need a new thread and I've got a bunch of other stuff to do. We are about a week away from launching the new, subscription podcast site. I'm really excited about how it is turning out and I can't wait to offer it to you. Besides near-daily podcasts from yours truly, the site will also offer webinars and conference calls with some of the biggest names in metals. There will be plenty of in-depth interviews, too, where members will be able to submit questions. (That should be fun 
) Anyway, I'll have more details as we get closer to launch and I hope you'll consider supporting the site. Revenues generated there will allow me to keep TFMR completely as is (FREE) and they will also help fund a possible "Turdapalooza".
Have a great day!! TF
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Comments
Could the COT be used to fool us?
Here's a question I've been thinking about for a while. We know that the LBMA is a bigger market than the COMEX. We know that JPM is active in both markets. The COMEX appears to be technically less opaque than the LBMA since it publishes COT and open interest reports. Is it possible that JPM could be using the COMEX COT to make us think they are doing one thing, while on a net basis, when you factor in the LBMA, they are really doing something else?
For example, let's say they wanted to scare us into thinking they were increasing their short position. So over a week they add say 1000 contracts short on the COMEX. The price goes down on the COMEX because 1) They are selling into it 2) People like us read the COT and get scared. But perhaps during that time period they also add the equivalent of 2000 contracts long on the LBMA. We still think they're increasing their short position, but on a net basis they are actually decreasing it.
Or is my understanding of the LBMA/COT/COMEX dynamic incorrect?
Turdapalooza
Man, count me in. :) But I seriously think we need to find us some proper fem Groupies.
Turd, I love ya Bro, but frankly you've seriously missed the boat. Young, nubile converts are supposed to be the spoils of a good cult leader, and having a moniker like "Turd" is going to make this a bit... umm... problematic. So I say we get some articulate little P.R hamsters to work on your image. Maybe do a (photoshopped) cheesecake photo expose' for GQ. We can tell the world your real name is something like Brandon or Skip or Buffy or Fabio or something.
So get to work on this proper now, please. Gotta get this rolling before Turdapalooza. :)
Do we have any turdite astronomers?
feedback would be great
Turd is ALWAYS RIGHT!
@Turd
You are handling this fire great, my friend-- it is only natural that people here should be pissed off and upset-- you see, WHITE IS BLACK and BLACK IS WHITE... as my good friend Bill Murphy has said.
Major events the past few months which have been fundamentally extremely bullish for gold and silver, have oft resulted in the largest paper smashes. I think tmosley's rationale is perhaps half-correct, that of course we are playing a rigged game with infinite paper fiat to back shorts to ZERO... but will that ever happen? I highly HIGHLY doubt it. I think the pricing system of the COMEX will be hook line and sinker LONG DEAD before physical price gets to those levels.
We are in a digital age, but let us not take for granted that silver and gold are metal... and they must be dug out of the ground. And it is increasingly expensive (see LABOR ,threats of nationalization, DETERIORATIOn of ORE GRADE) to pull it out of the ground. If the paper price really tanks and they really extend themselves to get it back into the Teens, well I think you are going to see a lot of silver producers react violently, and THAT will be the makings of a major supply chain disruption.
Tmosley's monopology metaphor, while entertaining, lacks focus on the fact that we are dealing with a commodity, which has a serious and very significant COST TO DIG OUT!
All Hail King Turd of the Silver Cult
All the best to you Turd, stay strong my friend we both know we are right, Fuck all the Haters, Fuck all the Hoes.
-Bernank
Group hug time
Everyone is right (except the Nixon Kennedy guy of course)
Site Feature Request
No complaints here. Kudo's to you Turd. Please keep doing what you do so well. Thank you for this.
Here is my request. Change the site code so when I add someone to the ignore list it does not take me back to the first page in the blog post. I find that I have to put off adding someone to my ignore list until I can not take it anymore. Then when I do ignore them I get penalized and sent back to the first page, forced to find my way back to the last post I was reading. I know this is a small thing, but it is really annoying on the iPad or iPhone. The last thing is a suggestion. Whenever I click a link in the comments it does not default to opening in another window or tab. I have gotten into the habit of right clicking and doing this myself, but as a best practice it is always better to open in a new window so the user does not leave your site.
Keep up the good work Turd, Admins, and Site Designers. These are only requests and not complaints. I love what you are doing here and only wish you more success. Thanks
Ag about to pop a dime or more
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=DXY0&data=Z30&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&late=y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=
@Tyler
moon. two days before the eclipse.
onealpha
After I hit the ignore button, and I get taken back to the beginning of the comments as you said, then I just hit the BACK button on my browser ( I use Safari) and it takes me back approximately to where I was, and the person is still on Ignore.
Same thing on links. I hit a link in a comment, it takes me there, I look at the link, then BACK button back to where I was at Turd's.
Works for me. Just trying to help.
If you don't want to listen
If you don't want to listen to even minutely dissenting opinion, then you are going to be smashed by reality again and again, and never make any progress. If you want an echo chamber, then feel free to ignore all dissenting opinion, but you aren't doing yourself any favors.
tmosley, save your breath, you are wasting it. Many here see no value in a dissenting opinion or even an appropriate and polite critique of the prevailing opinion. Never mind that silver was a $50 last year and is sitting at $28 right now. That's a helluva crappy year.
To Turd's credit, I think he often details the downside risk but many simply choose to ignore it.
Look, I think the short-term charts look terrible. Absolutely terrible. Long-term we all know where this is going. Both metals are going very, very high. For the record I do not believe the paper price will ever go to zero.
@Lumpy
You're a retard, and that's being disrespectful to the mentally challenged.
There's a HUGE difference between drinking the Kool-Aid and being respectful of someone, their ideas, their achievements, and most importantly their willingness to share. Leaders always have haters. Those haters are usually the losers, which I assume you probably are.
There are so many things you could be doing, instead of hangin' out with the Kool-Aid kids. Have fun.
Eric Original
Roger That
Degree of FUBAR
1) First, I for one am disappointed that Turd is not absolutely correct on everything he is said. Actually the expectation is perfection apparently. LOL. If TF (or anybody) knew exactly what was going to happen in the PM markets anybody think he'd be subjecting himself to the number of second guessers and Monday morning QB's?
2) Speaking of Monday AM--part of selloff is due to the G8 and NATO meeting both ending on positive notes--the problems are manageable and we are lucky to have our world leaders covering our backs. (Just being sarcastic).
3) Things are directionally FUBAR--that's the trend--follow it.
HUI high of day right now-what's that saying folks? Silver miners doing well too. Tells me institutions who are generally long are FUBAR and some of the others are just criminally FUBAR.
And we live in what's generally the best large country. I thought the goal was to emulate the best.
I Hope You Forgot The Sarcasm Tag
Turd is ALWAYS RIGHT!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If one stacks but doesn't trade, do they still need to purchase the Nike tennis shoes and purple shroud, given the return of Hale-Bopp in above video? /s
Not buying silver..
spending my money on this today...
http://www.sadanduseless.com/2010/02/stupidest-things-online/
achmachat
i was wondering about that possibility - but shouldn't they be close to the same size? the "moon" looks a little small
@Turd
I read ALL of your blogposts every day when I am not on the road or otherwise without internet access. I understand your position, and what you are trying to do, but I think you are getting hung up on day-to-day gyrations and needlessly sticking your neck out with these predictions after you did so well picking "Turd's Bottom". I understand the source of your exasperation, as you try to balance the long term goal of communicating the end of the great Keynesian experiment with the need to get a new blog post out EVERY SINGLE weekday. In serving the latter, you slight the former, and in serving the former, you don't have a blog or a following and your message doesn't spread, or at least not as much.
The reason you have been taking daggers is because of a series of incorrect short term predictions. Your predictions are always biased toward the fundamentals. (That sentence hurts to say because it IS total bullshit!) But fundamentals are meaningless in the face of unlimited government power wielded by a few kleptocrats. No amount of demand is going to raise headline prices when the government has imposed price controls. Black and grey market prices might go up, but not white market prices.
My theory (hypothesis with some amount of evidence backing it and significant if imperfect predictive power) is nothing more than consistent application of the lament that many silver holders go to when times are bad. To switch your beliefs based on the direction of a manipulated, controlled, or outright fabricated line is just silly. Yes, prices have risen a LOT over the last 11 years, but so what? Prices rose a lot prior to imposition of wage and price controls too. The expectation that they would continue to rise in full public view in the face of that was silly. The expectation that supply would disappear was logical.
If you want to disagree with my theory, that is fine, but you need to be certain that your theories are internally consistent, and consistent with phenomena we have seen. If the COMEX price is going up, then there shouldn't be any harm in buying a contract on no margin. It should be the same as buying a big bar of silver. But it isn't the same, is it? We talk about how you shouldn't trade paper on one hand, but how the paper price is legitimate and thus should go up based on recognized fundamentals (like London buying) on the other. That IS doublethink, no matter who thinks it. Just because a person is good or right on some things does not render him immune to doublethink. The natural human propensity to think that is what might be termed a happy death spiral, and should be resisted: http://lesswrong.com/lw/ln/resist_the_happy_death_spiral/
On a side note, be wary of removing those who are critical. It leads to cognitive "evaporative cooling", which is why ignoring those with dissenting opinions who are NOT rude, obnoxious, or abusive can lead to problems down the line, especially if your side turns out to not be 100% right.
More on cognitive evaporative cooling: http://lesswrong.com/lw/lr/evaporative_cooling_of_group_beliefs/
Also note that I WILL be buying a subscription to the new site when it comes out. I think it is a fabulous idea, and conforms very well to the subsidy model of internet businesses, where a small group of people who purchase premium services funds a much larger group of non-paying people who use a lesser or shared service, sort of like the road tax paid by trucking companies which subsidizes road construction and maintenance for everyone else (although we still pay a portion through gasoline taxes).
You are doing a good job here, Turd. Don't get discouraged just because your powers don't work all the time, especially given the changing nature of the game here.
@ achmachat & Tyler
It can't be the moon - the moon is the same size in the sky as the sun.
Most likely it's some variation of the 'sundog' phenomenon where ice crystals in the sky bend the sunlight and create another image of the sun in the sky. Usually it creates two suns, though.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_dog
all kidding and P&M'ing aside
HUI is beginning to tell us something
That photo is awesome! Now I
That photo is awesome! Now I gotta waste the next 30 minutes doing a Wikipedia deep dive...
@ Tmos
No amount of demand is going to raise headline prices when the government has imposed price controls.
and you are suggesting Turd should quit while he is ahead? Seriously...
@Mudsharkbytes
yours also sounds good. It's just that it was taken two days before the eclipse, so the moon really could have passed that close to the sun. And because as of now, the moon is a bit farther away than the average, it does appear a bit smaller than the sun, hence the annular eclipse instead of a total eclipse.
Well...that was 'interesting'
Not that it matters but fwiw.
Dissenting opinions are one thing and it's a valuable and mind expanding exercise we all benefit from and it's one of the things that makes Turdville unique because we cover many different topics on here. No one can claim they are 100% correct how this plays out in a probable historical market event at some point.
Imho...what gets me the most is the 'schooling' type of post that essentially calls TF out and actually infers a 'troll' aspect to what he dares to say on his own website. Contrasting opinion is one thing and I love it! But calling out the 'big, yellow-hatted one and trying to school Main St. in direct contradiction (and somewhat in his face) seems out of place. It appears your attempting to discredit him and by extension the many people who come here to follow TF's general meme but not in the monocular way your implying of the regulars.
There's different ways to frame things and how they're directed in their approach but trying to diminish TF on his own site while arguing his credibility blows my mind. Why wouldn't it? I don't speak for him and he's had his say but I'll have mine while everyone else is chiming in.
The day anyone of you has your own site and completely tolerates someone else coming on a daily basis (and repeatedly) and challenges your theme/beliefs and daily threads is the day you'll realize what bad form it appears to be with how your saying it and doing it on here right now. It's BS.
None of that means I'm mad or throwing a hissy but it's disappointing to me overall and I'll still continue to listen to tmosley and SW et al' but the message and theme they have just lost some of the shine. I still value and appreciate the thought behind it. None of it really matters what I think and I didn't try to flame or turn people off to you or discredit you. And it's not even your site and you got that courtesy.
This Turdite's view is get off TF's case the way some of you are going about it. Your not the only person stressed out in this market and world environment. Sometimes it's not the messenger or even the message, it's the delivery and where you're delivering it.
Anyone who just said or thought "FU !" Don't let the door hit you in the ass.
@BesteverNote that if the
@Bestever
Note that if the pricing system of the COMEX dies, then the headline price you are watching every day will be zero by definition.
@Vermillion
The part about paper silver always being to same price as physical silver is blatantly wrong. When silver dropped below $9 in 2008 you couldn't find it for less than $12. Prior to the 2008 crash, you could get all manner of silver products AT SPOT, now you can hardly even find 90% junk at spot, and everything else is $1-5 over. This is a FACT.
@S Roche
No, I am not. I am simply putting forth the truth as I see it. It is hard to balance the needs of a new blog post each day with a big picture focus. The two needs are generally at odds with each other, and there is nothing that can be done about that. More focus on the BIG picture now would be more helpful than making bottom calls, IMHO. We are all fielding calls from friends and family who are panicked about falling prices. Being able to address those concerns is helpful to everyone, though it would have been more helpful if they had been noted on the way UP. Better late than never, though.
Oh stop the infernal
Oh stop the infernal bellyaching. You're either a PMtard and buying silver and gold today (like I am), or not. "Wah, da metals are down again. Boo hoo".
mwhahahaha!
Greyerz - Customer Shocked “Allocated” Gold Not in Swiss Bank
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/5/21_Greyerz_-_Customer_Shocked_Allocated_Gold_Not_in_Swiss_Bank.html
WOPR? - What Does This Stand For?
Am I correct in that WOPRs refer to computers set to buy on the upside and sell on the downside based on algos and the like?
Annular eclipse
I saw a full on annular eclipse. The moon is only just barely smaller than the sun - nowhere nearly as dramatic as the video.
The most interesting thing about that eclipse was, not only did the sun look like a super skinny wedding band in the sky, but the spots of sunlight on the ground through all the trees were in the shape of CIRCLES! For me, it was the most memorable part of the whole thing. Wish I'd taken some pictures.
@ achmachat
I'm no expert but. If the moon is about to eclipse, why is the moon so small relative to the sun? I thought the moon was at the right distance which gives us the appearance of being the same size?