The End Is Near

Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 10:35 am

Actually, just looking for an excuse to post this photo again. This sad-sack dude looks about like how I feel these days.

Alas, though, the end IS near. I believe gold saw the final capitulative low late yesterday into the overnight as the June12 contract touched $1526.70 and is now $22 off its lows. Marking this event seems to be the rumored, and apparently true, margin liquidation of a large (JPM client?) position in gold. This mainly transpired after the NY close yesterday on the thinly-traded Globex. Note how it occurred after the close and the weekly CoT survey. If there was an "event", the timing allowed for skillful covering of their tracks.

So, we'll see. IF we've reached The Bottom of this 11-week torture session, step one was placed early this morning with a low at important chart support, near 1525. After a brief rally, which has already begun, we'll inevitably see a pullback to near the lows. From there, having double-bottomed, the next rally then extends to a higher high and The Bottom is officially in.

I finally had some time to check and respond to some emails this morning. Lots of good stuff in the inbox. Here are links that you really need to consider.

First, this article from Matt Taiibi at Rolling Stone. If you're unfamiliar with Matt, you should know that, even though he works for Rolling Stone, he truly is one the primary "investigators" on the case of Wall Street shenanigans and fraud. This blog post is very, very important, especially when you consider the naked shorting we all see in the PM markets.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/accidentally-released-and-incredibly-embarrassing-documents-show-how-goldman-et-al-engaged-in-naked-short-selling-20120515

To that end, read this. From one of your fellow Turdites:

http://thekwanbox.blogspot.com/2012/05/gold-silver-market-explained.html

Has anyone heard about this yet? Looks like there's some "competition" for PHYS coming soon. All this does is create more demand for real, allocated gold.

http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/features/3705-merk-gold-etf-to-be-redeemable-in-bullion.html

Lastly, I'm posting this "sight unseen" as I have not had the time to watch it myself. However, I find teh premise interesting and the guy who sent it to me sure was excited. If you have the time, give it a whirl.

http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/catastroika/

OK, that's it for now. For a little Turdville history, here's a link to the previous post that included the same image of "the end is near". Be sure to read the comments and follow some of the links posted. You'll see some of the very same bearish arguments being made today were being made back then. Interesting...

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/end-is-near.html

Have a great day and be sure to feed Calvin. Here kitty, kitty, kitty! TF

Login or register to post comments
19683 reads
Print
Email

TF Metals Report is supported by voluntary subscriptions and donations. DONATE TODAY!

Comments

I bought today. This

Submitted by Vic on May 16, 2012 - 4:00pm.

I bought today.

This guarantees a PM price collapse.

Just thought you all would appreciate the warning.

Loud, use Bens card. He would

Submitted by recaptureamerica on May 16, 2012 - 4:02pm.

Loud, use Bens card. He would appreciate it.

Jewelry always has a huge

Submitted by recaptureamerica on May 16, 2012 - 4:05pm.

Jewelry always has a huge mark up..I believe diamonds are similarly priced. Buyer beware

Just saying

Diamonds are a bad investment

Submitted by Dr G on May 16, 2012 - 4:07pm.

Diamonds are a bad investment for prepping purposes because they do not have weight or purity stamped on them. It takes additional knowledge and expertise to buy and sell them.

Diamonds cont'

Submitted by silverstax on May 16, 2012 - 4:08pm.

Well, liquidity would definitely be one of the negatives, but then again you just have to go to a dealer like a lot of people do for PMs (local meetups and Craigslist would def be out of the question).

I'm not sure about premiums, but as far as appreciation, it looks to be pretty good - I've posted some statistics below.

The two things that started me looking at diamonds just these past couple of weeks are:

1) Portability - If I need to hop a plane out of dodge, I can easily transport a lot of wealth virtually undetected (even if the diamonds were found, apparently there are no regs on how much you can transport).

2) Clientele - We've all heard about the ridiculous artwork prices as of late. The ultra-wealthy are the only people really spending nowadays, and they spend their money on plenty of luxury items. It's almost like they wear how much they overpayed for something as a badge of honor.

I see diamonds as somewhere in between PMs and artwork as a physical asset holding.

Here's some more information from the link I posted earlier:

Why Should You Consider Coloured Diamonds in Your Portfolio?

Some of the reasons for choosing coloured Diamonds as an Investment are as follows:

As a hedge against inflation.
There is a universal standard for the valuation of coloured Diamonds.
It is an easy market to invest into.
They are highly portable and offer complete privacy of ownership as there are no reporting requirements to any tax authorities. It is an ideal way to transfer wealth between jurisdictions.
Coloured Diamonds are a natural resource which has a very limited supply; this reduces the volatility of investing in this asset class.
There is very little correlation to other asset classes such as stocks, bonds and property. It is an ideal portfolio diversifier to reduce the risk in a portfolio. The market is independent of Government regulation and control.
On a price per carat basis coloured Diamonds are the most expensive gem stones on the planet, they retain their value and have similar characteristics to fine paintings as an asset class.

The Performance of Coloured Diamonds

If you had invested in a 1 carat Fancy Blue Diamond in 1970 it would have cost approximately £5000. By 2005 this would have increased in value to over £180,000. The market has shown that the price of a Coloured Diamond doubles in value every 3 to 5 years.

The current performance over the last 3 years has shown returns significantly higher than that, with little chance of prices slowing in the near future. Some experts in the market are suggesting that the prices of these Diamonds could double in value in the next 12 to 24 months. The reason for these phenomenal growth rates are as follows:

Scarcity due to mine related shortages.
- BHP Billiton production fell by 24%
- Rio Tinto saw its production fall by 23%
- Australia’s famed Argyle mine reported a 30% decline in production.
- De Beers production fell by 4.1%
Increased demand from investors including China transferring its reserves from US dollars to Gold and Coloured Diamonds,
Widespread hoarding due to the fact that investors no longer trust governments or banks and are looking for portable ways of protecting their wealth.

NO!

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 16, 2012 - 4:08pm.

MODERATOR

I'm talking about this. Fast forward to about the 10:00 mark.

Response to: I hope you realize, Turd

Diamonds

Submitted by exiledbear on May 16, 2012 - 4:09pm.

Well, I suppose if I was a smuggler or needed to transport value out of the country without setting off metal detectors - you probably couldn't do better than diamonds.

I wouldn't hold onto them though. But thinking about what's coming up, honestly folks, it won't matter what it is you buy, as long as it isn't paper money. If you don't like gold or silver, pick something you think won't go bad and that people will want. Booze for example. Canned goods. Anything really.

Hell, in Weimar they would go to a shop, any shop after they got their wages and buy whatever was on the shelf, the confidence in the paper money was that low. Didn't matter whether they needed it or not, it wasn't paper.

Diamonds, are you serious?

Submitted by Byzantium on May 16, 2012 - 4:09pm.

Even if you are an expert in diamonds, know what you are buying, and buy at a good price, you also need for a critical mass of other people to have that knowledge in and desire for diamonds, in order to have a buyer when you need one.

No way!

Furthermore, diamonds, it is alleged, are the inverse of gold & silver, in that rather than suffering price suppression, experience artificial price inflation instead. Precisely because it has no history or credentials as money, it does not threaten the system in having a high price.

Finally, remember how the experiment went; several students were dropped in New York, without their mobiles, and at random locations, with the mission 'find each other.' They all went to Grand Central Station, and found each other. They all anticipated where would be a logical place to go, and where to find each other. If paper currencies lose public confidence, where then, is the monetary Grand Central Station? (clue, it ain't diamonds).

My apologies to Turdville...

Submitted by Santa's Elf on May 16, 2012 - 4:10pm.

While I recognize most if not all of my posts are easily glossed over, I feel I owe the community an apology today. A few days back I gave my strategy for adding bullion and said that because I have a core position in PMs, I'm not buying anything until the announcement of QE3. Regrettably, today I succumbed to an addiction and lied to you all in the process. I only added a single gold coin to the stack, but a lie is a lie. Consider this my first attempt to repent. Should I make similar claims in the future, it's best not to take me for my word

A wise man once said, "keep stacking"

Read Norcini's

Submitted by ink on May 16, 2012 - 4:11pm.

Read Norcini's latest http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/05/why-delay-from-fed-in-announcing.html

and combine

http://ransquawk.com/headlines/223188 ("Obama Administration affirms that all options remain on the table for SPR release")

Wouldn't the latter be an effort to talk down oil/gasoline prices in order to make room for QE (in June or thereabouts)?

Underspec Krugerrands

Submitted by abreik on May 16, 2012 - 4:11pm.

I don't plan on getting any new Krugs for a while. I feel more comfortable with other sources after this: http://www.silverdoctors.com/s-a-reserve-bank-admits-underweight-krugerrands-were-produced-in-2011/

Boating Accident

Submitted by pickaxe on May 16, 2012 - 4:12pm.

Tasers don't work at bottom of lake!

@silverstax

Submitted by Big Buffalo on May 16, 2012 - 4:13pm.

Please take this as if we were good old friends.

"Why ask the fucking question, if you already had your mind made up?"

sheesh

I'll bet each of those bullet points came straight from a De Beers, Jared, or Zales brochure.

For anyone needing to put a bit of happy in their day

Submitted by Magpie on May 16, 2012 - 4:13pm.

just click here to see a really cute little guy dancing to "Jailhouse Rock".

http://www.wimp.com/dancingjive/

Did Someone Say Mosin-Nagant?

Submitted by California Lawyer on May 16, 2012 - 4:15pm.

My Mosin-Nagant story:

Ordered on line from Budsgunshop.com:

1 x Mosin-Nagant M91/30 7.62X54R Very Good Condition (91/30) = $109.00

1 x Mosin-Nagant Rifle History/Fact Book (Mosin History Book) = $23.99

Very nice website, simple, clean, easy to navigate. One thing that is required is to select a federal firearms licensed dealer so that Buds can ship the gun there, so that the Feds can track the purchase [DROS = dealer record of sale]. On their list, there are "approved" FFL dealers, and others. Supposedly, the approved FFL's do not require any other paperwork, etc. So, I choose the closest one to my house, which happens to be a pawn shop as well.

Budsgunshop has a very nice email follow up re shipping status, etc. So, I get a call from the pawn shop, telling me the Mosin-Nagant has arrived.

I meander down there after court the next day. I have my driver's license, my registration, my gun safety card, and some more FRN's to pay for the DROS. The pawn shop charges me $75.00 to do the DROS! Ouch! What a fu--ing scam. I am furious, but, I want the Mosin-Nagant, so I pay it.

I inspect the cosmoline-coated relic, and it has a few dings on the stock, but seems in order. Fine.

Mind you, my favorite gun shop was NOT on Bud's list, and which charges much less for the DROS fee.

Anyhow, I pay the $75, then I get told I need to provide another series of information, to include the name and serial number of my gun safe, as well as multiple other forms of ID, etc.

I wait the ten days, then go back to pick up the Mosin-Nagant. I furnish the additional information, none of which is required by the way, and then I take the Mosin-Nagant home.

I let it bake in the sun for two hours, then get after the cleaning of it with some mineral spirits. Two hours later, alas, I have it all cleaned and oiled up, ready for the range. By the way, the barrel is pitted pretty badly, and there are two major cracks on the front wooden grips, one crack which was obviously repaired prior. Shame on Buds for claiming this was in "very good condition."

Anyhow, I decided to order another one from Buds. This time, I am having it shipped to a local gun dealer, that sells lots of Glocks. I plan to not only DROS the Mosin-Nagant, but also another nice little concealed .45 with Trijicon night sites.

So, there is my story, and I sure hope it cheers everybody up!

New Elections in June

Submitted by BUDDHA PRINCESS on May 16, 2012 - 4:16pm.

New Elections in June Markets Fall after Greek Talks Collapse

It was the final act in the tragedy surrounding the attempts to form a Greek government -- and it had a dramatic ending. Greece will hold a new election in June after politicians failed to form a government on Tuesday, nine days after a vote that produced a stalemate. 1318596457@Sub1,Sub2,Top1,Top2,TopRight,

Athens now faces at least another month of political uncertainty that threatens to push Greece closer to bankruptcy and an exit from the euro.

After a third day of failed talks with political leaders, a spokesman for President Karolos Papoulias said the process of seeking a compromise had failed and a new vote must be held. Elections rules suggest it will be in mid-June, possibly June 17. A caretaker government is to be formed on Wednesday to lead the country until the new vote can be held.

Posted on spiegel.de website

The link is here.

..tunes,,Indigo(Star Child)7..

Submitted by maravich44 on May 16, 2012 - 4:18pm.

thank you for these ```..

Diamonds

Submitted by foxenburg on May 16, 2012 - 4:20pm.

You'll pay retail and sell wholesale.

@California Lawyer

Submitted by Big Buffalo on May 16, 2012 - 4:22pm.

Dude, sorry to here about the raping at the pawn shop. $75! Dam. Sorry to hear about the cracks too. I hope you have as much fun with it as I do mine. I friends love shooting the dam thing too.

New thread to pontificate on..

Submitted by recaptureamerica on May 16, 2012 - 4:23pm.

So anyone one wanting to be last, should post after me.

This is how the euro ends

Submitted by BUDDHA PRINCESS on May 16, 2012 - 4:24pm.

Not with a whimper but a bang

So it's still possible that Greeks will, when push comes to shove, simply surrender and take their punishment. It hardly needs saying that such an outcome would resolve nothing.

And the other possible outcome? Greece is indeed forced in despair to quit. With the precedent set, there would follow a mass flight of deposits out of Italy and Spain into safer havens, such as Germany and even the US and the UK. Indeed, this process has already begun. The only way of stopping it is to impose capital controls, but once major economies begin to do this, the euro is essentially over. It's no longer a single currency.

With or without capital controls, the European Central Bank would in any case need to step into the breach to stop the Italian and Spanish banking systems from collapsing. Ironically, the liquidity to do this would come from Germany and other surplus nations such as Finland and Austria, setting in train a giant, money merry-go-round.

Think about it. The Italian depositor removes his money and places it in a "safe" German bank account. There's nothing safe to invest in, so the German banker places the money on deposit with the Bundesbank, which then lends it to the ECB, which lends it back to the original Italian bank struggling with funding because of the flight of capital. The upshot is a massive build up of German central bank claims on Italy and Spain. In Germany alone, these contingent liabilities already exceed €600bn, or around a quarter of German GDP.

In the end there's really only one way Spain and Italy have any kind of a chance of repaying this money; Germany must allow them the monetary and fiscal stimulus necessary to get growth going again, which since the eurozone has a single monetary policy, means that Germany itself must accept higher inflation.

As long as Angela rules the roost, that's not going to happen. When the irresistable force meets the immovable object, there's only one way it can end – in a big bang and a new beginning.

Posted on The Telegraph website

The link is here.

Diamonds on the other hand....

Submitted by Byzantium on May 16, 2012 - 4:24pm.

Some jews bought their way out of the camps with some uncivilised, barbaric relics that were sewn into their garments... as Munger said.

There is an argument to buy a few pieces of zirconium. Maybe in a SHTF scenario, they can buy you out of trouble. By the time the man with the gun realises he has been scammed, you'll be long gone.

Decoys are in important part of any wealth strategy. You need some fake coins too to give to the gubmint when they come to collect your stash. If they even notice it is fake, just look shocked, shocked that you had been stroking fake stuff all those years.

Red Hill Mining Town

Submitted by DrkPurpleHaze on May 16, 2012 - 4:25pm.

How could you like miners and not watch the first .45 seconds

@Big Buffalo

Submitted by silverstax on May 16, 2012 - 4:25pm.

I said - "If any Turdites out there have any experience with diamonds please chime in!"

Not really sure how you interpreted this to mean I had my mind made up - I am still investigating the topic and simply posted asking for feedback from other Turdites, which I got. So,

double sheesh!

Checking the Vaults

Submitted by BUDDHA PRINCESS on May 16, 2012 - 4:26pm.

Germans Fret about Their Foreign Gold Reserves

A large portion of Germany's massive gold reserves are stored abroad, mainly in the Federal Reserve in New York. But are the bars really where they are supposed to be? A dispute has broken out over whether the central bank needs to check on its gold, or if Germany can trust its international partners.

Germany has gold reserves of just under 3,400 tons, the second-largest reserves in the world after the United States. Much of that is in the safekeeping of central banks outside Germany, especially in the US Federal Reserve in New York. One would think that with such a valuable stash, worth around €133 billion ($170 billion), the German government would want to keep a close eye on its whereabouts. But now a bizarre dispute has broken out between different German institutions over how closely the reserves should be checked.

Germany's federal audit office, the Bundesrechnungshof, which monitors the German government's financial management, is unhappy with how Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, keeps tabs on its gold. According to media reports, the auditors are dissatisfied with the fact that gold reserves in Frankfurt are more closely monitored than those held abroad.

In Germany, spot checks are carried out to make sure that the gold bars are in the right place. But for the German gold that is stored on the Bundesbank's behalf by the US Federal Reserve in New York, the Bank of England in London and the Banque de France in France, the German central bank relies on the assurances of its foreign counterparts that the gold is where it should be. The three foreign central banks give the Bundesbank annual statements confirming the size of the reserves, but the Germans do not usually carry out physical inspections of the bars.

Posted on spiegel.de website

The link is here.

Black clouds on the horizon

Submitted by SaratogaPrepper on May 16, 2012 - 4:30pm.

Just home from work, with big black clouds on the horizon. Management is way too smart to keep any crews for the soon to be coming T & L storm, we call them pennies from Heaven. That leaves me with a tough choice. Either await the imminent phone call to return to work or try out the Ubu Ale from Lake Placid Brewing. The phone call alone is worth 3 ASE's before tax and from the looks of the clouds it will be an all-nighter. I've been wanting to pick up some yellow shiny, so I think I'll forego the liquid refreshment for an hour or two and see how this plays out.

In the mean time

Our SLV Option Puts that we

Submitted by tyberious on May 16, 2012 - 4:37pm.

Our SLV Option Puts that we suggested are now UP 270% in the past 10 Trading Days!!!

We rarely do 'Put Option' suggestions, but when we do our record is one of the best. However, always keep in mind that options are a bet and should be treated as such.

With silver now holding at $27 per ounce, we are completely closed out of our SLV Puts and just purchased several hundred physical ounces of silver this morning.

Now we are NOT suggesting trading silver in the short term, silver can easily fall through the floor from these levels especially if we go below $26. $26 is silver's last line of defense. IF we have a sharp move down, then all bets are off because silver's next stop would likely be $22 and after that $17 if we enter some type of deflationary shock.

WE ARE NOT saying this is what is going to happen, but we want to be brutally honest with you and give you the heads up that if we see some type of 'black swan' event that puts fear into the market, then we could see things get a lot worse for silver in 2012.

Why we are buying physical? Because we save in silver, we believe silver will absolutely be the best investment of the decade, so for the long term, this price level is nothing. When silver is trading near the $1,000 per ounce range, if not higher, people will regret fretting about an $8 swing in the silver market at the mid $20 level.

When it comes to getting physical metal at these prices, you just never know when it is going to end, silver shortages loom as the price declines. The recent mines have a higher cost of production, many of them over $20 per ounce, and we are on the edge of a dollar crisis.

What we are doing right now?

Researching. We are looking for strong companies that are good for both short term traders and long term investors. With commodities down, we are looking for some buying ideas to present to our members.

We hope everyone is ready because we have some potentially big winners coming soon. The downturn of the last few weeks has shaken out the weak hands, so those looking for good deals, NOW may be the time!

Just an FYI, one of the companies we are looking at looks like it could be a big mover once resource investors discover it. We are watching it closely and hope to bring it to you as soon as we can.

Mike Krieger's Post on silver, great read for those looking for more on silver's recent move.

Click here to read, "Silver Plunges Below Marginal Cost: Commentary from a Retired Geologist."

Keep Calm And Carry On

Submitted by TeaDrinker on May 16, 2012 - 4:46pm.

I do not feel trust for my government.

I do not feel trust for my central bank.

I do not feel trust for the rule of law.

I do not feel trust for the media.

I will not panic and sell out my PMs.

Keep Calm And Carry On.

Time To Get Out Of Dodge ????? Found This On The Net....

Submitted by Robespierre on May 16, 2012 - 5:32pm.

The warning shots have begun. I will tell you that this week has been heavy in the financial world, as I predicted that it would be from my last update till the winter. The reverberations of the JP Morgan $2 Billion dollar derivative trade loss is playing out and the fissures have finally began to manifest on the foundations of the world market. What you will see in the next few weeks is continued talks and hearings about financial regulations and other such stall tactics. This is all a cover and a ruse. The $2 billion dollar loss is just a smoke screen to further hide the truth of the $2 billion loss from MF Global. Which I will tell you from my sources Jamie Dimon and JP Morgan Chase were the sole beneficiaries of that "Loss" . In truth JP Morgan has taken delivery and full liquidation of MF Global assets, thus the $2 billion derivative loss is no big deal for the following reasons:

1- Americans and most MSM talking heads do not understand derivatives, thus it is easy to throw out cliches, axioms and jargon with cries for more regulations. Thus Dimon and his cronies at JPM know that they will skate free from all litigation. After all he was once again voted in as CEO by the JPM board. Why? Because he covered the loss of JPM trades with MF Global's "missing" $2 billion. JPM knew about the derivative loss for months.

2- The $2billion loss will cause the needed outcry from America's Banker (Dimon) to call for more power that will favor the Too Big To Fails (TBTF) Banks. This will allow them to further prop up the crumbling economy just long enough that it will allow them to further liquidate and conglomerate Americas wealth into fewer and fewer hands. All this before the coming Euro collapse which will occur this winter. This $2billion JPM trade loss is the perfect catalyst needed by the MSM to keep the ruse and distraction going.

Greece has gone past the point of no return and RBS, UBS, Satander and SG are all implementing the final contingency plans for a Euro withdrawal and Drachma resurgence. This will occur very quickly creating hyper velocity and massive Euro bond dumps the likes of which we have never seen. The actions of Greace will inspire Austerity strapped Italy, Spain and Portugal to do the same. France will tailspin as the French have the greatest exposure to this coming crisis than any other nation in the Eurozone. Look for Francios Hollande to move for a Euro exit as well due to overwhelming pressure from his far left socialist party. Hollande has to comply, if he does not it would be political suicide.

Same goes for Germany, Merkel's party lost BIG in Germany's largest state North Rhine Westphalia (NRW), which way NRW goes, so goes the rest of Germany. Anti Euro sentiment is strong and it can not be stopped no matter what the bankers are doing.

The Euro is on it's last legs I do not see this currency continuing past 2013. There will be a quick dash to the dollar as a security blanket but that too will fail once the American derivative exposure can no longer be hidden. The final straw that will bring down this house of cards will be the $200-$300 Trillion of American derivative exposure. The derivative bubble will pop. What Dimon and JPM has signaled to the world elites and bankers in code is simply this...."It's time to get out of dodge."