I'm Captain Obvious, but Gold hasn't closed around here since last June/July. If it can't get it's thing together at these prices, then to the windshield it is. I put off going short at current levels and decided to wait it out in anticipation of greater clarity, but a close around here portends to a break below, which would really sweeten the short side for me.
Pailin's Trading Corner
May 16, 2012 - 2:26pm
#23262
Getting Interesting
May 16, 2012 - 2:32pm
#23263
Of Iron Floors
What happened to the iron floor of support under 30 that Turd had been calling for?
If we get the break I'm now looking for the cost of physical production to be a floor of sorts. Although I'd characterize it as an outstretched curtain rather than an iron floor at this point. I don't have that number to hand.
May 16, 2012 - 2:48pm
#23265
SW- interesting @12:38
Where did you read that about the 3 Chinese banks? I don't need a link; just something to get me in ballpark. The BOC had a "Grand Opening" special in NYC about 2 mos. ago; luring ppl in for CD's at 2%. FDIC INSURED!
Thanx!
May 16, 2012 - 2:49pm
#23266
Have you guys noticed all the
Have you guys noticed all the posts on Pain Street about how, the lower spot SI goes, the higher the markup on ASE to make up the difference? I have not seen this AT ALL.
Denial will kill you.
May 16, 2012 - 2:52pm
#23267
At least we're seeing SOME signs of fight
I'm pretty sure we're going lower from here, but resistance is definitely stiffening.
There is some serious push back in the $1530 area.
Also, I saw some signs of fight on the Shanghai and Mumbai opens (and re-opens) last night. They were overcome pretty quickly, but at least they each put up a fight for 30 minutes or so.
I'm not necessarily predicting that we're going to move up or down. I'm just saying that there are at least SOME signs of fight showing up. That's been pretty much missing over the last two weeks.
But like I said, I actually think we're going to go down some more -- and the drop could be fast and quick or long and slow.
May 16, 2012 - 2:55pm
#23268
Rico wrote:
Have you guys
Have you guys noticed all the posts on Pain Street about how, the lower spot SI goes, the higher the markup on ASE to make up the difference? I have not seen this AT ALL.
Denial will kill you.
Pain St. Cute. I like it.
Same old BS we talked about last week. Markup will be about the same or lower if demand isn't there in $$ but % will rise because spot price is so much lower. Dumb math for dumb peo....okay, I shouldn't say that, not nice. But maybe somebody (other than myself) that is patient should post up math there or direct them to my post last week about 1998 Christmas sale on Eagles being 8.95 when spot was $5, and this was the era of like ZERO demand for silver :)
And if they still don't get it - direct them here. $2.59 over spot and no minimum quantity. Seriously, that's just giving them away...if you think spot $27 is the bottom :)
May 16, 2012 - 3:04pm
#23269
Rico wrote:
Have you guys
Have you guys noticed all the posts on Pain Street about how, the lower spot SI goes, the higher the markup on ASE to make up the difference? I have not seen this AT ALL.
Denial will kill you.
Only thing I've noticed is that 90% went from 10 cents under spot (I think, it was something under spot) to spot. But also seems like I've seen a lot of specials, but I don't go around looking at prices all the time so maybe that's normal.
May 16, 2012 - 3:12pm
#23270
good trading Pailin
good trading. Avoid all noise just plug in the pivots wherever the trend is, probably best thing to do, no angst.
Ewok- I read it over at ZeroHedge. Its speculation and these people are so smart that it could be anything. Once you start down the forensic trail you get lost easily in the jungle and end up on the Pain Page as Rico would say. This craziness about separation of physical and paper has been a mantra practically all the way back to Jim Jones before he donned the Ray-Bans. I don't get it. People will believe anything as long as hope is sold, just ask Obama.
And I still have no answer to my question over there: What happens when Betty-Lou, all 320 lbs of her in blue TSA digs comes knocking with her metal detectors at your cabin in the woods? What then?
May 16, 2012 - 3:18pm
#23271
Soros
Soros announced in filings that he has quadrupled his holdings of Gold.
Someone said he had old weiner Buffet and gas-bag Munger over to his place for tea just 2 weeks ago....
Nothing is as it seems, black is white and the Red Queen Rules Wall Struck. The Bigs buy low and sell high regardless, they don't care about value they buy where the price is on the time cycle chart.
May 16, 2012 - 3:47pm
#23272
pause
all I see is a pause in the downtrend in metals. No other signs today.
May 16, 2012 - 3:51pm
#23273
pailin wrote:
Rico
Have you guys noticed all the posts on Pain Street about how, the lower spot SI goes, the higher the markup on ASE to make up the difference? I have not seen this AT ALL.
Denial will kill you.
Pain St. Cute. I like it.
Same old BS we talked about last week. Markup will be about the same or lower if demand isn't there in $$ but % will rise because spot price is so much lower. Dumb math for dumb peo....okay, I shouldn't say that, not nice. But maybe somebody (other than myself) that is patient should post up math there or direct them to my post last week about 1998 Christmas sale on Eagles being 8.95 when spot was $5, and this was the era of like ZERO demand for silver :)
And if they still don't get it - direct them here. $2.59 over spot and no minimum quantity. Seriously, that's just giving them away...if you think spot $27 is the bottom :)
:) haha, although playing devil's advocate, I don't think it's stupidity. It is about the need to buy into something, the need to feel like a solution exists and choosing to shut out anything which undermines that position. However that is not to say that some people don't understand EXACTLY what they are doing when they disseminate these fallacies. The concern that longs will have is not simply what price will be it's bottom but the potentially devastating effect it will have on momentum. I know if you are purely trading the price that isn't an issue but the majority of people do have a certain amount they are holding.
Crazy times, I remember when I posed the question when silver was at 32 ish that am I really that far off base to suggest that silver is going to hit the low 20's and Rico replied that it certainly wasn't too fanciful to suggest. I am no trader, although I do trade, but the lower lows lower highs has been a theme of silver for quite a while now. Is this the end of the bull or the extended interlude in a bull cycle? People can bitch about fundamentals all day long, but the reality is that I now absolutely am convinced that there is zero shortage of supply. The data provided to justify this notion of may day supply shortage is either utterly spurious or deliberately distorted.
May 16, 2012 - 4:06pm
#23274
The T-Bond
near to $147 now - time to short? It is getting close, but it still could go up more. Hard to say - it has to have some top though rates are getting close to zero.
Can anyone explain how to translate the bond price into a rate?
May 16, 2012 - 4:09pm
#23275
daveyboy wrote:
Is this the
Is this the end of the bull or the extended interlude in a bull cycle? People can bitch about fundamentals all day long, but the reality is that I now absolutely am convinced that there is zero shortage of supply. The data provided to justify this notion of may day supply shortage is either utterly spurious or deliberately distorted.
Well now we're into opinion. My opinion is the monthly chart bull isn't over but yeah not the time to take on more long risk just yet either. As far as supply and scarcity goes, it's not supply of coins and 10 oz bars to Keiser fanboys that will determine that reality. It's industrial demand vs mine supply. My opinion is that will be a problem at some point in the next 5-15 yrs and I'm happy to judiciously stack on that basis. I've had many investments that I bought over the last 20+ yrs 'mature' of late to return very healthy annualized returns over that whole period, far exceeding any other investment vehicle. Really. Buy a drawing for $100 in 1992. Sell for $5k in 2008. Yeah been there, done that. Quite a few times. Happy to repeat with silver for 2012-2030 period :)
May 16, 2012 - 4:33pm
#23276
armstrong
Armstrong has been spot on for the year. His theme is that the flight to safety as Europe collapses is not into gold yet. It goes first to the dollar. This can last a time. The dollar is rallying.
He has either a bounce within the cycle of gold into July and then a crash in August-Sept. for metals. Or if no bounce in this cycle then a big run for Gold in July and a crash in metals later in the year.
But the central theme is important and is misunderstood by goldbugs. The dollar is regarded as the safe haven now and all other risk assets including gold are therefore going down. Until this changes and there is perception change about the dollar, gold will not rally big. We all first have to wait for the 'dollar as savior' phase to play out, as painful as it may be.
May 16, 2012 - 4:55pm
#23277
SilverWealth wrote:What
What happened to the iron floor of support under 30 that Turd had been calling for? The buy with both fists should it break 29?
I'm going to go with "it failed".
@Turd, may I have a refund? Oh that's right, I haven't given you any money.
May 16, 2012 - 5:01pm
#23278
I still am unclear about
I still am unclear about relationship between dollar and the metals. If the dollar is the safe haven from here on, and metals bounce either July of later in the year, then we have to assume the dollar will temporarily give up its safe haven status. There are variables here that are missing I'm sure.
May 16, 2012 - 5:18pm
#23279
SilverWealth wrote:
Armstrong
Armstrong has been spot on for the year.
He did predict 1550 or 1500 or something like that for the S&P, but I like Armstrong, he's the best economist out there IMO.
May 16, 2012 - 5:21pm
#23280
redwood wrote:There are
There are variables here that are missing I'm sure.
You're referring to Armstrong's predictions. Armstrong, to my reading, doesn't present causes only effects based on his system which is wavish and looks to weekly and monthly closes to determine shorter and longer trend moves. So he's not giving you fundamental variables, only price technicals. Not knocking your thinking, but as SW has noted it can be dangerous to mix the two to try to get the answer you want instead of the more likely to actually occur answer.
Sometimes it's best to take a 10% loss to buy back in 50% lower :)
May 16, 2012 - 5:30pm
#23281
Daily Pivot Points
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Luxuriating in my bountiful luck today :)
Recovered 25% of underwater from last two weeks in one day.
Lower highs, lower lows. That's the trend.
Will continue to short Pivot and cover S levels until it's not working anymore.
I expect that will be quite obvious when it happens.
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