TFMR Podcast #19 - Jim Willie
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Like many of you, I know what is coming. I can see all of the pieces of the puzzle but I don't quite have the knowledge and expertise needed to bring all of the pieces together into a clear picture. Jim Willie does.
In this podcast, Jim takes today's seemingly unrelated headlines of European sovereign debt, JPM hedging losses and paper gold price drops and ties them all together into a tidy little package that clearly shows where we are headed in the not-too-distant future.
I think it's safe to predict that you will greatly enjoy this podcast and rank it among the best we've had to date.
TF
Jim Willie

Jim Willie is an original. If you want to be official about it, you can call Jim a "statistical analyst" as Jim has a PhD in statistics from Carnegie Mellon. Since 2004, however, he's simply been known as "The Golden Jackass".
Through his website http://www.goldenjackass.com/ Jim has developed a subscription-based newsletter service which is second-to-none in its quality and its "outside-the-box" thinking. Jim's very affordable service, The Hat Trick Letter, can be found here: http://www.goldenjackass.com/subscribe.html
p.s. As you can tell by his bio picture, he has an extraordinarily large brain, which he uses to all of our benefit.
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Comments
Strange Universe
I guess it is hard for Bill Fleckenstine, Dan D or at TFV blog and others to admit to PM manipulation. It is also hard for some to believe that Al Qaeda is a CIA data base containing Middle Eastern operatives. It is even harder for some to believe that the USA foreign policy is run by Israel and that 911 was an inside job.
Jim Willie, believe it or not has access to information that we do not. Remember he has been living abroad for a reason!
My 2 copper pennies!
@John Galt - The Common Sense
Great Comments.... We are being fed bad baloney from our food, to our money...to really all aspects of our lives, but few can tolerate the reality that comes from acknowledging what, for the most part, is standing right in front of them. I believe we have a few more years of can kicking they can do and, in that time, we have a few more years of getting our ass cans kicked.... :-0)
re Canadian firm gets millions
I am now in favour of stimulus.
coomon sense
it is common allright, just not sense
talk to several of the the normaly biased, cognitive sheeple about any subject (not just monetary policy).
qed
One thing people are missing
Regardless of where you stand on Jim Willie's hypothesis, there's one thing I haven't seen anywhere.
Namely, the story that "JPM is under attack" opens the door to explaining further losses in the future at JPM. It's a beautiful cover, if they have to report greater losses than $2+ Billion.
Personally, I think that you'd have to be extremely gullible to believe that JPM has told the truth in a Press Release. If that were true, it would be a first.
Jackie married Ari because...?? Alternative JPM coverage
Lisa Pollack (FT) is and has been all over it....with the added benefit of credibility.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05/11/996131/too-big-to-hedge/
Plus this is interesting, with lots of links.
http://dealbreaker.com/2012/05/the-tale-of-a-whale-of-a-fail/3/
and even Bloomberg is saying it's gonna get bigger. Why? Because Jamie said it might in the f*cking conference call!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-11/what-jamie-dimon-doesn-t-know-is-plain-scary.html
Sadly, not much of this interview or commentary reflects well on the TFM hive-mind...
What I find interesting about the comments on this...
is that the negative comments, almost uniformly, revolve around the tiny side-mention of the JFK stuff- and NOT the central thesis of the entire podcast. Ignoring the trivial part, I am still waiting for a factual counter-argument of the central thesis and have yet to hear it.
To me, it seems entirely likely that 1. Germany will wind up at the center of a slimmed-down Euro (or new Euro- Mark), while Russia, China, and India (and others) would work towards a new international trade and settlement paradigm that works to their advantage, rather than the current "Dollar reserve currency" paradigm that works against them and to US advantage. US dollar doomed and our debt is hyper-inflated away, while fiat-denominated assets go "poof". Game theory would suggest this is HIGHLY probable as an outcome.
If people have strong arguments against this thesis, rather than mere generalized ad-hominem attacks on credibility, I would genuinely like to read them... because if this thesis is correct, our understanding of this is truly paramount for our individual financial survival.
@P4tF
Jim Rickards addresses these issues in a well argued manner without the nonsense. I do not necessarily disagree with the central thesis but it is unknowable at best. I doubt Germany will agree to blow up their export model mercantilist economy but at some stage the cost of carrying the Euro may cause them to blink as events overwhelm them.
My disappointment is that the non-sensical aspects of his presentation diminish the overall thesis.
My guess is
the whole 78 billion, although we will never know for sure. Bernanke will try to save JPM. If he doesn't, he will end up having to save a whole bunch of other institutions. Either way they will bail and bail, like Sean Penn during Katrina.
S Roche
"Sadly, not much of this interview or commentary reflects well on the TFM hive-mind.."
Please elaborate?
TIA!
Jim Willie does provide a great discussion..
about potential scenarios relating to how other nations are responding to our flagrant use of our reserve status. We all know that Russia, China and the Middle East (Saudi) are laying the tracks for another system. We know this because given the same set of facts... we would be doing the same thing. These countries can save a lot of money by not having to find dollars and pay the conversion just to do business.... the incentive is there now that we have made it clear we will monetize our own debt. It is interesting to consider that the new "fiat" system might have a gold backed element of 5% or some other fractional backing, but I worry about how easily that could be manipulated by our friends, the Central Banks of the World (Rothchilds). As Pining points out, Germany, Russia, China, India and Saudi Arabia are the countries that are poised to take action. The exact tipping point for them to push the buttons on their system... I don't know, but they will and we will be in a world of hurt as we will then have to produce things to get things...
I generally believe they will take their steps in a series of short squeezes as they try to get the most juice out of the old system. These other countries have already entered into extensive trade agreements which settle in their respective currencies..... that's a big step. Additionally, they are all building up their gold reserves.... another step. It is not to their advantage to implode this old system but rather steadily replace it in such a way as to minimize the interruptions, at least to their own economies. I have stated this before... this change over for us won't happen in a long drawn out process.... over one weekend.... we will wake up on a Monday and we will have a new system without a vote of People.... 5, 10 or 100 for 1 new "X" paper.
@murphy
hey murph.. i was just trying to surmise what i have been hearing in the podcast and reading on the site. i was not trying to add any new information from sources. More facts and named sources would be great. that is why we come here. unfortunately there is no blueprint or road map to see what is ahead. Turd says the dots are being connected i was just wondering if i was connecting similiar dots.
tom
LIVING IN THE PAST
We spend a lot of energy on looking back to 911, JFK, Norma Jean, J.E. Hoover and thousand of other conspiracy theories. Most of these items have very little value in preparing us for the future. Knowing the real truth of what "really" happened will not stop the future hidden evil coming down around the next bend in the road. Jim Willie just made the mistake of blending the past with the future in the same interview. He may or may not be correct but planting a garden this year has more value for the future that being correct about Jackie.
Our political system has the sickness of looking at the past for 99% of the debates. What we need is someone to point to the future and how to solve the ills of the nation. I am heading out to my pea patch with a hoe and I am going to kill the weeds. Jer. 29:11 jmo
@ Mr. Turd
Mr. Turd,
Well, since you and your censorship crew decided to block my posts, I'm afraid there's not much for me to do here, is there.
I’m a bit puzzled by the fact that someone left me a private message in my personal inbox (obviously either you or one of your moderators), but won’t give me an access to view it. Whatever.
I still believe that you are making a mistake by blocking the critical, derisive, derogatory, patronizing, etc. posts out, as they were a proof that you were keeping your Ego in check and had shown that you were open to criticism and not afraid of it. Just look how many hat-tips (around 80) you’ve got for gently pushing me out of way the other day. People liked the way you handled me. Many people liked my post too, so I thought you might have appreciated this.
Anyway, it’s your sandbox and you can decide which kids you are inviting to play.
Hope you don’t hold any grudges, as I certainly don’t.
Good luck with your future endeavors,
Abrax-ass (you knew all along I wasn’t a Troll, didn’t you)
@tyberious
I really admire the collective experience offered on this site, (the hive-mind), as it works its way by sharing information towards likely foreseeable outcomes: whether it be precious metals, social disarray or even bacon: the result is wisdom.
I think I have made my disappointment with the interviewee clear (and yet I like it that Turd presents a wide array of sources) my concern at the comments was that some reflected nothing more than barracking for our guy (who might be so smart he is...insane!).
The JPM news may be the start of something really big. Gold traded very heavy into Friday's close after failing to follow through on a very positive Thursday. Focus people!
If I have offended anyone I apologize, but the offering of ridiculous assertions in amongst views that are generally accepted on this site diminishes the overall case.
BPREP- Re SWIFT
If we all know that China, Russia, Mid East are developing a new system that would be negative to the US dollar. Why would we enable them? Did we not throw them out of the SWIFT system? Actually forcing them to expedite their new system? Why would we do this if it were not part of the bigger plan?
My theory is it's not about the individual countries, as they want us to focus upon. Just like arguing about left/ right or liberal/dem.
The world is being run by the 18 cartel banks working in unison. It matters not where their home office is.
@murphy - It's a possibility...
I guess the question I have is whether China's Central Bank is controlled by the Old Guard Bankers.... I don't think it is, yet. China & Russia are the wild cards because they could be aligned to a Cartel fashioned plan or they could be aligned to their own.
@murphy - what are your thoughts about the real influence of the cartel banks in these two countries? Controlled by those interests or is it a stand off?
BP
I'll get back to you on that one. Going for a walk with the Mrs.
S Roche
I'm never offended! :)
Anyway, later chaps! I'm of to enjoy our Great Northwest weather!
Pining and Willie
Look I agree, its too easy to launch ad hominem attacks on Willie. I was enjoying myself. But lets consider what matters of real importance he discussed.
First of all he has no better idea about Pluto than he does about how much gold Russia has and where they are storing it. If you want to believe his conjecture on this you are better off putting it all on red in Vegas. Its an absurd speculation and betrays his method of 'reasoning'. Its also and always a pitch. A kind of sensationalist hook to get news letter readers and also to sound original.
Second. Its a well fashioned argument about gold backed currencies emerging to compete with the dollar but its one of many,many possibilities and if it happens it could come far into the future long after most goldbugs are flushed out of the Market.
and all this nonsense on boards about how 'dire' the situation is at JPM. JPM runs the show. They are the big gorilla. They run the Fed. Sorry. They are not going down and whatever trouble they encounter it will be papered over. Simple. I'll bet on JPM and dollar before I bet on Willie or any other freakish b.s. that is dreamed up on gold bug sites.
think about it. On the whole have goldbuggers made or lost money reading KWN,Willie and the rest of them? I say a lot of money has been lost. A whole lot of people have been misled down the primrose path of hope and pure fantasy.
Nor does any of this dispute the very real and well researched science of 911. Thats a different story and there are 1500 phds who have given evidence based in hard,scientific work on the subject. They do not fall into the school of guessing and conjecture and hooking for subscription newsletters.
JIM WILLIE IS THE BEST
His inside sources are some of the best in the silver blogosphere. Subscription is worth every penny!
Prediction
Jamie Diamon resigns in the next year as CEO JPM
Blythe Masters get's indited for market manipulation and we learn that she had a sex change operation at the age of 20
Bart Chilton-has emergency surgery for hemorrhoids and is placed in the ICU for 6 days.
Dr. G takes all his gold and buy's gold stocks:)
Turd
The problem is that Willie presents the bath water as if it were qualitatively equal to the baby, and that's probably what Silverwealth is pointing out. Personally I find him to be an interesting read and listen, from time to time.....and his knowledge of the gold and silver markets runs deep, but he clearly resembles Benjamin Fulford and/or Sorcha Faal from time to time and you must at least admit to this. I began to wonder when his "inside Kremlin source" once told him about dramatic events that would be happening immediately that never came to pass a few years back. He harms his own credibility by doing this frequently.
@silverwealth
my take on willie-JFK moment
Some teachers and other speakers use this as a device.Your concentration is tiring a little,teacher brings up a cartoon moment like JFK -Greek island.He wakes you up ,then within seconds off we go again on the subject in hand,refreshed enough by the diversion to be fully concentrating once more.That is a decent teacher / speaker at work, and a clever guy.Still stacking teach.
T.Aye.
happy one to Moms,Sunday.
The JFK-Greek Island thing
That's probably the same island where Ken Lay, and soon Corzine, will be sitting around drinking margaritas with little paper umbrellas. Maybe they need to make room for Dimon. Now that I think of it, that's gonna be a crowded island in about five or ten years
One thing in common
Listen, the PODCAST that TURD provides us are perspectives from people that share the same ideas with all on this board. We may not agree with all of them and that various nuances around what will/may occur but I think we all can agree that we are fucked one way or the other and that GOLD and SILVER are money and will be the things that protect us in the years ahead. I for one don't agree with everything everyone says on the POD CAST...look Ranting Andy I don't agree with his premise on Gold stocks, but i do agree with him on the fact that GOLD/SILVER will be the only things that will protect us. Listen, how can I agree with Andy or everyone else when my experiences have been different-the most money I've ever made where from Gold stocks/discoverers and take overs..so I'm going to disagree with him and DR G:) on that one, but will agree that you can lose big time if you don't know what you are doing. There's risk. Ok back to Willie...so no pun intended. But the fact is he's right on some things and may not be on others. We are all human and can't know everything..what will happen next..
The PODCAST provide other points of view for us to consider but at the end of the day, most importantly, they reinforce the need to have G &S in our portfolios. We can all agree to disagree if that's 100%, 50% or 20%. I think we can also agree that the JPM thing is FUCKED up. $2B..probally not...probally much more...but does anyone really know..we may never now..but we will find out that it's much much more. These events, whether this one brings down the financial system or not, I don't know, but what I do know is MFUCKING GLOBAL, JPM, Lehman..and a host of other things will eventually bring down the system and all the sleeping fuckheads out there will wake up and be either a) pooing in their pangs b) hanging themselves or c) jumping off bridges. Im serious, things that will develop will make people lose it because they are going to lose everything. It ain't going to be fun.
And while we may/will be proud that we have our gold and silver, we will be watching the shit hit the fan and it won't be fun to watch. We will all wake up and say "o my..o my" and that's if you are in the USA or Euro...or where-ever. the facts are the facts and it doesn't matter if Willie thinks that everyone leaves the EURO from the south or weather Ranting Andy thinks that only people that wear blue will surivive..the fact once again is that G & S will be there when it all goes south.
We can all agree to disagree on the nuances of Andy and JPMs $2b or 20$ b loss, but the fact remains we have a mess out there. People are complaining about the price of gas, price of food...famlies having a hard time making it...people can't find jobs..the banking system is a mess, we are in the worst times since the depression and everyone (outside of us and a few others) recognize what's occurring.
It's getting worse and I'm afraid that when it get's bad---really bad---there will be much pain for many people.
The podcast our for us to consume and think about it. We can't expect everything they say to occur..we can't expect everything Jim Sinclair says will happen will happen....it's directional....too many forces at work that can shift things from left to right and vice versa.
Time to focus and keep doing what we need to do to prepare for the "major shit show on earth" - coming to a theater near you.
Great article on the Morgue's latest losses
http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2012/05/financial-worlds-worst-nightmare...
The Financial World's Worst Nightmare
I think every useful blog under the sun has re-hashed the JP Morgan/Jamie Dimon bombshell dropped on the market last night, so I'm going to try to be brief, to the point and hopefully add some "color" and information that is new.
First, Jamie Dimon did a superb job of throwing very expensive, opaque lipstick on the world's ugliest pig and catering the to the Wall Street analysts and media who take what he says and spin it to the public in the best possible light. In fact, I just saw one headline on Marketwatch that said "JPM stock is lower due to a a bad trade." A "bad trade?"
What we just saw last night was the result of Wall Street's equivalent of unsupervised special ed. children playing with financial nuclear triggers. How do I know this? I used to be one of those unsupervised kids back in the 1990's, when the magnitude of the capital being played with was a small fraction of what it is now.
This is not a "bad trade." This is a massive proprietary (i.e. bank trading/speculation portfolio) position that has blown up. Dimon fraudulently refers to it as "an economic hedge" that didn't work as well as they expected.
Jamie Dimon is either completely ignorant of what is going on in JPM's speculation-ridden proprietary trading operation or he's lying. Or a lot of both. If he's clueless, then he should be terminated by the board immediately. If he's lying, he should be investigated by the Obama Justice Department. But we know the latter has no chance of happening, as Eric Holder's Justice Dept has taken financial fraud prosecutions to a 20 year low. Not surprising since JP Morgan and other Wall Street banks are the heart of the client list of Eric Holder's pre-Justice Dept law firm.
With regard to the idea that - as Jamie Dimon put it - this is a $2 billion dollar economic hedge that didn't work. Make no mistake about about it, the true size of this horror is easily several multiples of that reluctantly disclosed "error." This quote is from a good friend who has spent his career at four different Wall Street firms, including the pre-collapse Lehman - in other words, he knows quite a bit about what goes on behind the scenes in bank risk portfolios: "Saying this is less than ten times the disclosed amount is being generous."
What we know for sure is that there is a derivatives trader in London working for JPM who was running a trading/capital position that is thought to be as large as $200 billion. For JPM/Dimon to publicly claim that the embedded loss in this position is only 1% is complete fraud. To begin with, JPM's stated book value as of 12/31/11 is $183 billion. There is no way in hell that JPM would call a surprise conference call to disclose a loss from a bad hedge that amounts to less than 1% of shareholder equity. Even by today's absurdly loose accounting standards, anything less than a 5% event is not considered to be meaningful.
What this tells us is that JP Morgan's liquidity is potentially threatened by what is unfolding in its $78 trillion derivatives book (per recent OCC filings). Even worse, despite all the claims to the contrary, and Dimon's insistence of JPM's "fortress" balance sheet, the risk managers at JPM have no idea how to hedge $78 trillion in exposure and this myth about "net" vs. "notional" derivatives exposure is complete fraud.
The other disclosure by Dimon last night that really irritates - and one that is part of the expensive lipstick he liberally applied - is the remark that JPM has $8 billion in "unrealized" gains in its "available for sale" portfolio. Give me a break. I would challenge Dimon to go ahead and sell those holdings at market and let's see what the real number is. I would not be surprised if what is realizable is a small fraction of that. While we won't know what the true mark to market status of JPM's book value is, I would bet meaningful money that it is less than half of what is being stated in its 10k/10q filings.
Beyond all of this, we really don't know much. JP Morgan did a masterful public relations job at obscuring the facts and minimizing the data and details that would be meaningful to any analyst who is looking for the truth. But we should expect nothing but this kind of useless bullshit given that the Obama Government has made it clear that they are not going to do anything to implement supervision and law enforcement on the group of banks and individuals who have contributed and raised the most amount of money for Obama's 2008 and current election campaigns.
For source material and good articles on some of the numbers I used above, please read these links:
JPMorgan Whale Harpooned?, Financial Times, Bloomberg
Those do not take long to read and will shine some light on the truth in the context of my commentary. Have a great weekend.
"For Us and Our Posterity"
"But the event on Friday, which included members of Minnesotans for a Fair Economy, SEIU Local 26 and Occupy MN, was by far the largest demonstration since the money-wiring crisis began in December.
Chanting, "Yes, we can!" and alternately "Haa waa karna!," which means the same thing in the Somali language, the crowd outside Wells Fargo was eclectic and included other grievances against banks.
"We made a business decision in 2008 to exit those business relations," Gunn said. "... There are federal rules and regulations that banks have to abide by, and that's what we're doing."
Asked what the risk was in providing banking services to the Somali money-wiring businesses, Gunn said only: "We made a business decision. No financial institution in Minnesota is providing those types of services."
She added that Wells Fargo believes it strongly supports the Somali-American community by offering financial support to Somali community organizations and employing many Somali people. "We agree that it's unfortunate they're having difficulties finding a way to fulfill their need and desire to send money to their homeland," she said. "We have met with the community and we are always willing to do so."
Javier Morillo, president of SEIU Local 26, said the union on Friday closed the strike fund account it had kept at Wells Fargo. The amount: $72,000.
"Wells Fargo, if they wanted to, they can keep Somali families from starving
in Somalia," he shouted through a megaphone.
Several times throughout the demonstration, the protesters took over different intersections. They started out lined up in front of Wells Fargo Center at S. 6th Street and Marquette Avenue S. Then they marched to the intersection of Nicollet Mall and 8th Street S. and stopped in the middle of the street.
"Sit down!" an organizer yelled through his megaphone. The crowd sat down on the street. Cars idled at the green light as a line of organizers stood in a row stopping them.
Police then closed off parts of Nicollet Mall and 8th Street S., diverting traffic to different routes. Demonstrators were protesting near U.S. Bancorp offices.
Abdulaziz Sugule, a consultant for Somali American Money Service Association, said more than half of the Minnesota money-wiring businesses were recently notified by a bank in Seattle that their accounts will be closed in June because they can't handle the volume of money-wiring business they've been receiving from Minnesota's Somali community since local banks cut ties last December.
"We keep the pressure on," he said of the ongoing protests. "This is a message to the banks that we're not going to go away."
Allie Shah • 612-673-4488"
http://www.startribune.com/local/minneapolis/151213585.html?page=all&prepage=2&c=y#continue
"Haa waa karna!" - "Yes We Can!"
Wells Fargo vs. this? I don't know. I guess that's like when the Crips go to war with the Bloods and I root for both of them.
From JSminset