TFMR Podcast #19 - Jim Willie
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Like many of you, I know what is coming. I can see all of the pieces of the puzzle but I don't quite have the knowledge and expertise needed to bring all of the pieces together into a clear picture. Jim Willie does.
In this podcast, Jim takes today's seemingly unrelated headlines of European sovereign debt, JPM hedging losses and paper gold price drops and ties them all together into a tidy little package that clearly shows where we are headed in the not-too-distant future.
I think it's safe to predict that you will greatly enjoy this podcast and rank it among the best we've had to date.
TF
Jim Willie

Jim Willie is an original. If you want to be official about it, you can call Jim a "statistical analyst" as Jim has a PhD in statistics from Carnegie Mellon. Since 2004, however, he's simply been known as "The Golden Jackass".
Through his website http://www.goldenjackass.com/ Jim has developed a subscription-based newsletter service which is second-to-none in its quality and its "outside-the-box" thinking. Jim's very affordable service, The Hat Trick Letter, can be found here: http://www.goldenjackass.com/subscribe.html
p.s. As you can tell by his bio picture, he has an extraordinarily large brain, which he uses to all of our benefit.
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Comments
It's fine to disagree with
It's fine to disagree with somebody, but to think Jim is off the mark because of his view on Nixon re JFK is, I believe, foolish. Unless you're brain dead, you should be aware 9-11 was an inside job or at the minimum involved USG factions. At the minimum. We still don't know for sure who pulled off the JFK murder, but it was obviously an inside job. Many foreign nationals automatically assumed it was a coup from within. Nixon despised Kennedy and later became president. Many people think those who visit sites like this and believe in metals over fiat paper to be wing nuts. Now some of you evidence this kind small-mindedness when hearing a view on another issue outside of your own small mental box. Maybe open you're mind a bit and get an education outside of the metals world.
Willie
I think Willie is entertaining but he is so full of his own left brained intelligence that I think he improvises and exaggerates and tells stories that have little basis in reality. The stories appeal to the gold buggers because they offer the warmth of hope.
For basic reality please consider Dan Norcini all thru this last week. Deflation is the theme for the time being and that is all that is important, the rest is just nerds gossiping about this or that and entertaining the imagination. Sells subscriptions too.
http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/http://www.traderdannorcini.blo...
the notion that they blew most of Kennedy's head off but he lived and was hidden on an island in Greece to survive out some indefinite time as a vegetable is completely absurd and betrays an unwell and overheated brain. Anyone who knows anything about rifles knows that last front shot was an instant killer.
Chris Duane saying it with attitude
Nice presentation. Well worth the watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=aVJaQ7NWpdU#!
More pain to come, I fear, but the liftoff will be spectacular. Ask anyone who saw the first one. Sit tight...Be right.
Kennedys and Bens are excellent stackables...
Sharks are circling the criminals. They smell blood. More brushfires being lit. Payback is a bitch.
Thanks for what you do TF.
Happy Mothers Day moms.
A shout out to the rabblerousers... Take a hike.... you're spineless, valueless, and you're stinking up the air.
Best wishes to the entire community. Eyeswideopen
bullion vault,questions?
On another matter entirely,is the fact that this site hosts an ad for BV a sign that it is endorsed as kosher? I realise that this is not necessarily true,but I am thinking of a wee investment of that type soon.Could someone let me know what they think of these people? I notice it is London based aside from NY and Zurich as vault centres.
I know if it's not in my hands,it is not mine,and I tend to agree with that.
J.Willie interview excellent stuff,thanks.
note to mods and long..
..headline writers.You put too many words into your title and the tip hat gets covered.I can not tip you through these words.
Stack on !
T.Aye
Beliefs
Some things in life you have to continually reanalyze and revaluate.
I remember when I first went hard core into diet and fitness. I'll be honest with you, it wasn't fun. It can be very rewarding, but in general, its painful and time consuming. When you find yourself in those kinds of predicaments, you have to constantly remind yourself of why you are doing it. Another example of this is faith. If you are religious, you have to constantly remind yourself why you choose to be. Otherwise you will lose track of what you are doing. Another example of this is personal academics and studies. The life of a student is difficult and taxing.
All these things are disciplines. They take effort, and they take time.
If you become discouraged, it can sway your goals. You can fall to the other side and become cynical of those who remain there. As if they know less than you, now that you have switched over.
Don't allow your impatience and pride to steal from you the great reward of patience and hard work. After all, this is not very hard work at all. If you want to know what hard is, I will give you my fitness planner. This is not hard work. It is simply buying and waiting.
I'd also like to add that many people enter into disciplines, but only do so because of the initial thrill they give. Some people go into fitness because they want to feel good. When they start feeling good, they stop going. Some people go into religion for the same reason. Eventually they stop gathering with their religious friends and drift away, move on. Some people go into academics thinking they are going to win the noble prize, but merely party for a few semseters and drop out.
Some people decide to start stacking gold and silver, thinking the market is just going to go up and up and up, and never come down. They got drunk on the rush of last year, and now they are going through withdrawls.
Let those who want to fall away do so on their own. But for those of you who still have some juice left in you, hold on, stand strong, disregard the cynical posts of others. They no longer have this in common with you.
Willie, JFK, Elvis, and the Tsar's gold in Kremlin -- Part 1
Very interesting interview.
Now, as for the JFK story and the Russian Tsar's gold in those secret chambers under Kremlin ---
JFK -- Yes, president Kennedy lived with Jackie Onassis-Kennedy and Elvis on the island Skorpios in a hospital owned by Greek tycoon Aristotle Onassis. However, according to other sources, at first, he was secretly flown to a hospital in Poland. When he emerged from the coma in the late 1960s, he was crippled, frail, and mildly brain-damaged. Then he was flown to Skorpios, to join Jackie and Elvis. In 1971 the European tabloid Midnight ran a photo picturing Kennedy, Jackie, and Kennedy’s two nurses going for a walk on Skorpios. For some reason, Elvis wasn't on that photograph. Well, it wasn't a good photograph anyway, they didn't have Photoshop yet.
So, is it true? Well, based on the fact that Elvis was missing on that photograph, American writer Truman Capote presented his own findings and ideas in a 1971 newspaper article. According to Capote’s version, Kennedy never emerged from his coma and lived in Switzerland, not Greece. Later, being under enormous pressure from many non-believers, Capote retracted the story, admitting that he had intended it as a silly piece of fiction. But I think that he got a phone call from Elvis...
TSAR'S GOLD :-)))
That's even better story (to be continued).
@Turd
No I wouldn't discount everything he said. The JP Morgan stuff was an interesting thesis. But requiring proof is not a normalcy bias. There's quite a wide scale between total BS and credible, and he pretty much ran it there and back (IMHO)
Not that I mind. The guy has an interesting mind and your interview technique got the best out of him. Personally I still think the best podcast by far was Trader Dan's. I sometimes replay that to remind myself that's exactly what I think, if I was experienced enough to put it into words. Would love to hear a Norcini/Willie double header. You can do that with Google hangout.
Alien?
After listening to the podcast I was left with the feeling Jim Willie and I live on different planets, so maybe that alien reference wasn't too far off. Still, always good to be exposed to a variety of opinions so thanks, Turd, for making this happen. One thing is sure, though - I won't be joining his fan club.
Saturday!
"Manliness rated high on ancient lists of the virtues; indeed, for the Romans, virtus designated both the general concept of virtue and manliness in particular. Today, as author Jack Donovan remarks, if manliness gets mentioned at all, it is usually made a vehicle for selling us on something else: “real men love Jesus” or “a real man would never hit a woman.”
As Cochran and Harpending have shown (see The Ten Thousand Year Explosion, pp. 65ff), human beings have adapted to settled civilization to some degree in the ages since Gilgamesh—but few have adapted enough to feel at their ease amid the unprecedented effeminacy of the present age.
In short, we are becoming the society William James predicted “of clerks and teachers, of co-education and zoophily, of consumers’ leagues and associated charities, of industrialism unlimited and feminism unabashed.”
In one of the most interesting sections of his book, Donovan discusses two species of great ape: the Chimpanzee and the Bonobo...The gist of the difference is that Chimp society is organized along male lines while Bonobos behave like proto-feminists. ...
What causes these differences? It turns out that Chimps must hunt to survive; Gorillas and other rivals take most of the vegetable nourishment in their territory. Bonobos have no such rivals, so they simply live off the abundant vegetable food available to them. Female Bonobos can provide for themselves, so males are less valuable to them and less respected by them. While Chimps mate to produce offspring, Bonobos are “sexually liberated,” mating for pleasure and socialization. (The female great ape is no more “naturally monogamous” than the female human.) Homosexual behavior is also common among them.
In short, the “Bonobo masturbation society,” as Donovan terms it, is the natural end-product of feminism, which is a natural response to a long run of abundance and safety. A lot of effort is being put into selling men on a vision of the future as more of what we have today: more food and drink, more security, more labor-saving devices, more vicarious sex, more vicarious masculinity, more real effeminacy.
The Way of Men closes with some recommendations for men who are not thrilled by this prospect. The author believes that the future mapped out for us is “based on unsustainable illusions and lies about human nature.” It is already falling, and only needs a push. Men will not be able to challenge the system directly, but they can encourage fission around the edges. As central authority loses the loyalty of an increasing number of men, we are likely to witness a kind of social atavism..."
http://www.alternativeright.com/main/blogs/hbd-human-biodiversity/the-origins-of-manliness/
Thank you WilliamBanzai7
.

stack to give to your children?
what.....so they can blow it on something they don't need?
inherited money is the stupidest, most unappreciated money around.
money with sweat on it grown or kept by brainpower is the best money to enjoy.
leave your children a viewpoint and maybe an education if they really desire one and will work to chip in.
Willie, JFK, and the Tsar's Gold in Kremlin -- Part 2
Well, Willie believes that the Tsar's gold is in some secret chambers under Kremlin, and I would say, just for fun, that some of it is in -- Fort Knox, or somewhere around. :-)))) But if it is really here, I would never, and I mean -- NEVER, bring it up. Some people could get very upset. Here is the story, in a nutshell --
Let's make sure that we understand what we are talking about. It is the Russian state treasury gold, the Imperial Russia gold reserves, some 1,600 tons of gold coins and bars (it could be more, according to some sources). Russians are trying to locate it for nearly 100 years already, and they won't give up. There were books on this subject, there are dedicated web sites, wiki articles, newspaper articles, but often -- quite misleading and wrong. For example, here is an article from the British Mail Online, from September 1, 2010 --
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1307750/Has-lost-treasure-Tsars-...
1) Kolchak was a hero in the First World War who later led the pro-Tsarist White Army against the Bolsheviks after the 1917 October Revolution.
It wasn't a pro-Tsarist Army. It couldn't be. Tsar Nicholas was OUSTED in February 1917, then arrested by Duma's Provisional Government and kept under house arrest. Duma is something like the Parliament. Duma named the Provisional Government, Kerensky was in charge. Kolchak was sent from the Great Britain to help Kerensky to fight Bolsheviks. Kerensky gave the gold reserves to Kolchak, to safeguard it, and use it, if needed (to finance the military operations, to purchase guns and equipment).
2) He had a few early successes but was eventually arrested by Lenin’s henchmen and executed by firing squad in January 1920.
Kolchak was NEVER arrested by Bolsheviks. They would NEVER get him alive. It means, if Bolsheviks didn't arrest him, they didn't get that gold. Kolchak was detained by the Czechoslovak Foreign Legions; they were fighting Bolsheviks too. Siberia was under their control, from Ural to Vladivostok. So, what happened to that gold?
The legions had its command in France, and also in the U.S. (the Legion leader, T.G. Masaryk). They were in contact with the U.S. president Willson.
Kolchak sent some gold to France, to buy military equipment, but the French guys didn't send anything and confiscated Kolchak's gold; to pay for some Russian outstanding debt. So here we have some Russian gold, in France. Legions got quite pissed on France and Kolchak, and decided to leave. They exchanged Kolachak, his army and some gold for trucks and boats, and left from Vladivostok; some directly to Europe, others to the United states. Where is that gold?
Not to make this story long, Japan got several boxes of gold, too, when one Kolchak's train with troops surrendered to Japanese. One train had an accident, they were using trucks, and it is possible that some IS in the Baikal lake, as stated in this article.
3) The Russians reneged on a promise to hand him [Kolchak] over to the British military mission in Irkutsk. His body was hidden by revolutionaries under the ice of the Angara River which flows out of Baikal. Had he escaped, it is likely he would have sought exile in London - bringing the gold with him.
Sure. Here we go! :-) They are trying to make a case, that -- IF EVER the gold is found, it should go to the Great Britain.
4) If the alleged treasure has been found, it could spark an ugly scramble between the Russian state, descendants of the last Tsar Nicholas the Second, and countries - possibly including Britain - that could argue they are owed outstanding debts by the fallen Romanov regime.
That's what I am talking about. The problem is, that it wasn't Tsar Nicholas personal gold. I know, there is a picture of the Queen on all Canadian Maples, but it doesn't mean that all the Maples belong to the Queen, right?
5) In 2008, historian Sean McMeekin outlined how the Bolsheviks seized the Tsar's gold bullion - which was Europe's largest strategic gold reserve - then sold it off to help pay for the revolution. In his book History's Greatest Heist, McMeekin claimed Lenin's henchmen secretly auctioned off the treasure abroad.
Sure. :-))) And from whom the Bolsheviks seized it? They confiscated gold from private citizens, their private gold. Private banks could have some. That's not gold we're talking about. Why would Russian keep looking for it till today?
So, where is that gold? I would say -----
From Wikipedia:
"After Russia left the war following the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, the Allies sent troops there to prevent a German or Bolshevik takeover of allied-provided weapons, munitions and other supplies, previously shipped as aid to the pre-revolutionary government. Wilson sent armed forces to assist the withdrawal of Czechoslovak Legions along the Trans-Siberian Railway, hold key port cities at Arkangel and Vladivostok. Though not sent to engage the Bolsheviks, the U.S. forces engaged in several armed conflicts against forces of the new Russian government. Despite the apparent innocuousness of Wilson's motives, revolutionaries in Russia resented the American intrusion."
Isn't it interesting?
peter grandich on junior miners
http://www.smallcappower.com/articles/peter-grandich-expert-interview.ht...
Nice Work If You Can Get It...
...It’s only (our) money. I wonder if Harry Reid had any influence here?
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Your Tax Dollars at Work… Canadian Firm Will Receive up to $50 Million Stimulus for Nevada Solar Plant That Employs Two People
It’s an Obama world.
Canadian solar firm gets $50 million in Stimulus cash.
(eBridge)
A Canadian firm will receive up to $50 million in Obama Stimulus cash for a Nevada solar plant that hires two people. And, the energy produced at the plant costs three times as much as energy from natural gas.
The Nevada Journal reported:
The company behind the recently opened Silver State North solar plant is eligible to receive up to $50 million in federal tax credits under the Obama administration’s “stimulus” legislation, even though the plant created only two full-time jobs.
According to a Department of Interior memo, Enbridge Energy Partners, a Canadian-based company with extensive energy holdings in the U.S. that purchased the Southern Nevada plant from Arizona-based First Solar, “can apply for payments of up to 30 percent of the eligible costs of the project — approximately $50 million.”
The payments are available through the 1603 Program, a special exemption in the Treasury Department created by the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act to “reimburse eligible applicants for a portion of the cost of installing specified energy property used in a trade or business or for the production of income.”
The program states that the “1603 payment is made after the energy property is placed in service; a 1603 payment is not made prior to or during construction of the energy property.”
Silver State North began service on Monday, May 7. Larry Springer, a community relations manager at Enbridge, confirmed to Nevada Journal the company intends to file a 1603 application for reimbursement.
If it stops raining, I'll go down to the Grassy Knoll tomorrow
and look for evidence of Illuminati/Bilderberg/CFR/ESF involvement. I'll post pics.
Podcast..what is the big picture? trading mistakes
trading mistakes
#101: guessing the top or bottom and over committing
#102: selling your winners and riding you losers
From what i am understanding of the the podcast the Cartels need fiat for margin calls from sovereign bond and interest rate swap holders (in asia?) to raise the fiat the Cartel banks sell metals future on the Comex. This then forces down the price in London on the LBMA which Asian entities then take delivery in large quantities. This depletes the Cartel banks of their physical gold reserves and leaves them more naked short futures versus their comex position. this then snowballs until they are out of gold and cannot protect their comex super leveraged short futures with physical ???? i may be completely missing the boat here but this has been a common theme since my boating accident left me without any PMs.
The Law of Common Sense
OBummer will carry any torch that brings His Next Term...
JP Morgan drunk on Greed...
Not much Room to Fly.. when Debt & Unemployment await..
Interesting additional color from Denver Dave
"With regard to the idea that - as Jamie Dimon put it - this is a $2 billion dollar economic hedge that didn't work. Make no mistake about about it, the true size of this horror is easily several multiples of that reluctantly disclosed "error." This quote is from a good friend who has spent his career at four different Wall Street firms, including the pre-collapse Lehman - in other words, he knows quite a bit about what goes on behind the scenes in bank risk portfolios: "Saying this is less than ten times the disclosed amount is being generous."
What we know for sure is that there is a derivatives trader in London working for JPM who was running a trading/capital position that is thought to be as large as $200 billion. For JPM/Dimon to publicly claim that the embedded loss in this position is only 1% is complete fraud. To begin with, JPM's stated book value as of 12/31/11 is $183 billion. There is no way in hell that JPM would call a surprise conference call to disclose a loss from a bad hedge that amounts to less than 1% of shareholder equity. Even by today's absurdly loose accounting standards, anything less than a 5% event is not considered to be meaningful.
What this tells us is that JP Morgan's liquidity is potentially threatened by what is unfolding in its $78trillion derivatives book (per recent OCC filings). Even worse, despite all the claims to the contrary, and Dimon's insistence of JPM's "fortress" balance sheet, the risk managers at JPM have no idea how to hedge $78 trillion in exposure and this myth about "net" vs. "notional" derivatives exposure is complete fraud."
http://truthingold.blogspot.com/
Jim Willie Insane?
Thanks for posting this podcast, Turd.
For those who suggest that Jim Willie might be a few fries short of a Happy Meal for his JFK theory etc., I'd like to point out that throughout history there have been many people with brilliant minds who have also shown signs of extreme eccentricity. Albert Einstein, Nikolai Tesla and Pablo Picasso are 3 immediate examples I can provide.
Also, studies have shown that there is actually a very fine line separating brilliance from insanity:
http://www.thelocal.se/26708/20100518/
That said, while some of the stuff Willie talks about make seem to be on the fringe of what most of us perceive as reality, I would not discount everything he says as a result.
JPM
Does this do any thing in regards what they are doing with the silver market? do you think they try to exit quicker now or it doens't matter with regard to what just transpired?
@ Be Prepared
It seems to me that the prevailing government theory on how to solve the stalled wagon problem is to pile 10 people onto that wagon and have then yell, in unison, to the kid in the striped shirt: "FORWARD!!!"
Denver Dave
Makes a really good point about Less then 1% of shareholder equity. that could occur on a daily basis in most banks and we don't even know it. this is bigger then what they are saying. i suspect that there are many phone calls this weekend going on between JPM< the treasury the fed, etc. this could mean a QE3 quicker. everytime something happens with one of these banks, firms, it always get's a lot worse then the intial communication, hold on for a nice ride
another question
@TF-The other day Tabberto posted the below. In the interview he states that the excess amounts of debts need to be wrung out of the system. Is this JPM the beginning?
@Tommack - hat tip to you in the above post. I don't believe I have had anyone explain it to me like that. The question I have to you and others is, can your theory be backed up with facts?
Recommend all Turdites be aware of Mr Detlev Schlichter and his site
www.papermoneycollapse.com
I will post links through to his new articles as they are posted, he is an Austrian (although actually German!) - who used to work at JPMorgan of all places!
he has a book of the same title and hopefully TF will do a podcast with him in due course to firm up the sound money cred of TFMR!
Meanwhile this was Detlev on the Keiser report in December
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=dab6GkNEMb0
@EO - thanks for the tune. Only listened to it three times.
Common Sense
@ Be Prepared
The "Common Sense" caption reminds me of something else: namely, that common sense is not all that common.
For many years GWB was ridiculed for not being very bright. It turns out that his IQ is actually somewhere around 130, while the AVERAGE American IQ is somewhere around 98. Not only does this make Dubya smarter than more than half of all Americans, but statistically it also makes it clear that at least half the population has an IQ lower than 98.
Given that politicians in a democratic society pander to the majority of the population, and the majority appears to be dumber than cinder blocks, is it not logical to say that we are being ruled by idiots?
@charles williams
"Maybe open you're mind a bit and get an education outside of the metals world."
This is my favourite post of the day.
Good Morning
Excellent podcast.
My ignore user list is much longer than before, and I feel a greater sense of calm.
Thought most of what was said was very compelling - does anyone one out there really think that everything they believe right now is true? Big picture people carry a storm inside their heads, and sometimes they can get it out to others who are willing to listen. Like shouting from mountain tops to each other and no one in the valleys can hear what is being said.
And I didn't realise he had starred in Star Trek - didn't recognize him without the uniform. I must have seen every episode, and some many more times than once. I think our financial system is currently captured by this episode: