Compilation of Comments

For a weekend open thread and discussion, I though I'd give you a compilation of the comments I've added throughout the day to the previous thread. I do this for three reasons:

  1. There are some pretty good insights that would be missed otherwise by those who only read the main threads and not the comments that follow.
  2. I'm too lazy to type a new thread. 
  3. I'm out of time and I need to go cut the grass. Not that the grass needs mowing per se. But I need the stress relief and the Friday afternoon beer always tastes that much better after working up a good sweat.
 
MODERATOR

Remember, BoA recently repositioned $53T in CDS from their ML subsidiary to their BoA NA sub. In preparation for a default which they can pass along onto the American taxpayer??

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gift-keeps-taking-bank-america-facing-62-billion-collateral-call

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-18/bofa-said-to-split-regulators-over-moving-merrill-derivatives-to-bank-unit.html

Re: The Dying Comex

MODERATOR
 

This chart lays it out pretty well.

What is the bond market telling us?

MODERATOR

Based on bond prices alone, overt QE does not look imminent. However, why the rally today? And why is the 30-yr not participating at the same rate as the 10-yr? Note that the spread has compressed to just 120 basis points. And who, for the love of pete, is willing to give money to Uncle Sam for 30 years at an annual yield of just over 3%?

Regardless, block out all the noise about WOPRs and OI and CoTs and the like and you're left with an investment climate of negative, real interest rates. Negative, real rates have always been and always will be one of, if not the, driving factor behind precious metal accumulation. More here:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3325/case-you-missed-it

Here's a great Rick Santelli video from this morning:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000088399&play=1

Lousy CoT

MODERATOR
 
Yuck. From a CoT perspective, nothing to write home about this week.
 

GOLD

​The rise of OI from the bottom near 395,000 was due to some new spec longs and some new bank longs absorbed by a 15,000 increase in The Cartel short position (net short addition of nearly 11,000). Looks like The Cartel is not ready to see gold rise anytime soon.

SILVER

The drop of OI was due to everybody exiting at once. Spec longs, EE longs, EE shorts all down and the EE net short ratio expanded to 1.56:1. Again, yuck.

After the good CoTs of the past few weeks, this one is s real downer. Looks like The Cartels are not expecting, nor are they going to allow, a significant move higher anytime soon.

On that note, have a happy weekend! 

And, finally:

I've always thought that

MODERATOR
 

I've always thought that Louise Yamada was the best technician on the planet. Heed her words:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/5/4_Yamada_-_Gold_%26_Silver_at_Critical_Points_in_This_Cycle.html

I HOPE THAT EVERYONE HAS A SAFE AND RELAXING WEEKEND!  TF

p.s. I've got Bodemeister in The Derby tomorrow. Yes, I realize that no horse that was unraced as a 2-year old has won The Derby since, like, 1887 or something. Who cares. I'm on him!

419 Comments

pourty's picture

Re: Time for bed

Not sure if you meant that post in a friendly way... but I love that song... ;-)

Irksome's picture

Hard to listen seriously to anyone who uses...

Hard to listen seriously to anyone who uses myspace as their publishing platform...

@Bsong, re: http://www.myspace.com/tom_heneghan_intel/blog/545684070

Does anyone have any other sources for any of the claims this guy is making?  Sounds an awful lot like the illuminati conspiracy theorists, but if any of it is true it would be a big deal.

ivars's picture

USDx up and Silver gold down almost corrrelates (+0,3=>-0,4%)

But there is no visibility of smackdown on PMs. At least not at the moment of writing:

USDx 79,85

Silver: 30,18

Gold: 1639,6

But oil is DOWN 1,3%. So PMs are  holding MUCH better. As goldmodel says, Oil usually correlates with stocks.

Stoks in Asia - 2-3% down

Stocks in Europe- ready for 2-3% down

Stocks in the USA- must be down, including Apple ( already 12% below its peak when many here had predicted it will crash)

goldpricemodel  has produced an improved DOW prediction chart 2 months ago  based on my latest chart:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/133744#comment-133744

- interestingly, his chart has the first sharp drop NOW while keeping the index between exponential trend lines that marks the reaction of DOW system after sharp shock in the opposite direction. May be his guess is correct?

His comments about his DOW model  here:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/61834461@N02/6803255004/in/photostream

And many more interesting charts here:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/61834461@N02/

Eric Original's picture

Xty

Luv ya, but hearing you, of all people, say "there is no reason to be so dogmatic" made me laugh out loud!

Hammer's picture

Who said economics can't be

Who said economics can't be fun ?

Xty's picture

re dogmatic

EricO glad to make you laugh - yes, that does seem a bit ridiculous even to me (and of course I am dog-matic!).  And look at the trouble I caused when I tried to suggest some things are about opinion and might have more than one answer.

At least this much is true - owning some gold and silver will help protect people when this current fiat currency crumbles - about that I will be dog-matic.  But I do have a cat-matic side - it just lies around in the sun, though, and does not attempt to engage in human affairs.

Xty's picture

re economics can be fun

Hammer - truly fascinating, and a great graphic representation of volatility.

Torpedo Fish's picture

android

well, Android is a Linux-based operating system for mobile devices such as smartphones and tablet computers, so pretty soon there is gonna be more Android installations than Win 7 around.

On my servers I use centos linux, it's highly recomended and forget about opensuse. I never trusted german IT companies, they have forgot simple rule - KISS - keep it simple stupid!

Xty's picture

So Warren, Bill and Charlie all on the top videos at CNBC

The 'interviewer' actually says Warren and Charlie to Bill and he is so happy and smug I could barf.  But when those three rat-bags all are featured explaining (?) why gold is a bad thing to invest in, you should run not walk to your nearest coin shop, pawn shop, mint or mine:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000088107

All three friends of the common man.  

Xty's picture

a side rant about Everyman

One of the key differences between the Chronicles of Narnia, a good set of books involving magic, and the Harry Potter series, a bad set of books involving magic, is the nature of the protagonists.  In C.S. Lewis' work, the children are just children - they are forced by extraordinary circumstances to overcome great evil - but it is their human response that makes the books so accessible - they speak to you.  You could be one of those average kids.  Now in Rowling's work the protagonist is special - he has a mark on his forehead that distinguishes him from birth, and he is literally a wizard.  Try being him and battling evil - well, at least you could pull out your wand, or cast a spell.  (BTW, why don't the Weasley's just make themselves nice stuff?).

C.S. Lewis makes the point (and yes, I recognize that is is a Christian allegory, but that is a different 'story') that an ordinary individual has within them the power they need to rise up and confront the troubles they encounter.   Rowling tries to, but because one cannot empathize with the main character, the whole thing fails.  When Harry moans 'why me' you can tell him - you are the goof with the scar - but when Edmund does battle with his own avarice and deceit  - you totally understand what he is going through.

C.S. Lewis wrote for Everyman -Rowling wrote for the special few.

ClinkinKY's picture

Morning Toons

ClinkinKY's picture

WH Releases New Photo

ClinkinKY's picture

"Leading From Behind"

ClinkinKY's picture

And finally...

Dr Jerome's picture

CME director resigns?

Bsong, Irksome,

Well the director Craig donahue  has left the CME, but I am not sure that the rest of the story can be corroborated. http://biz.yahoo.com/e/120502/cme8-k.html  Not a whisper of this story from any reputable site. At the least, this is another banker type abandoning the ship?

Stratajema's picture

Let's blame the shorts

It's really easy to do.  Blame the short sellers for the depressed price of miners rather than the sucky dividend they pay on a depleting asset.

Check out the short interest in these big players where it would take a whopping (sarcasm) 2 days to cover their positions.  It is a non-issue:

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/nem/short-interest

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/gg/short-interest

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/abx/short-interest

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/au/short-interest

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/auy/short-interest

You ARE being lied to by most of the pimps on KW News about the short interest suppressing stock prices.

A decreasing oil price (today) might help the stock price of miners if PM prices stay the same since oil is a 15+% input cost to mining. 

vonburpenstein's picture

to i-phone or not to i-phone

My wife has an Android and I have an I-phone....she wants an I-phone and hates her phone...anyone want to trade?

Make sure to click on Xtys link to cnbc....Gates & Buffett talking Gold & Silver....he dogged the metals for not throwing off any income in the interim...psssst, we don't stack for the dividends

They do makes some good points though and It all points to the fact that we should be diverse in our planning

Stratajema's picture

Re: CME director resigns?

Perhaps he left because MF Global 2.0 is locked and loaded.  See Ann Barnhardt's remarks about Penson's inevitable liquidation.

Be Prepared's picture

Someone stacked $120 Million of Art.... in One Painting...

Be Prepared's picture

It's Forward alright... but it Ain't Pretty where we will Land!

Dr Jerome's picture

PNSN = MF Global 2.0

Is Penson going broke due to the decline of trading volume, or is there some other reason?

Full Story: March 13 (Reuters) - Penson Worldwide Inc posted its seventh straight quarterly loss, and the securities clearing firm said a majority of its debt holders have agreed to a restructuring support agreement...

Keg's picture

Listening to Buffet this morning

Listening to Buffet this morning on CNBC.  Found two things he said interesting.

He agrees that paper money will continue to be devalued but he would rather own a productive asset like farmland than gold.  Makes sense if you can afford and manage that type of investment.  But you cannot buy a small amount of farmland each month and you cannot take it down to the LCS and sell a piece if you need some fiat.  At least he was not as offensive as Munger.

Buffet says he and Munger never discuss the news when making an investment decision.  Sure, he did not base his investment in BofA on the news.  Right.

Be Prepared's picture

Today's Scream.... $15.7 Trillion of Them....

Be Prepared's picture

OBummer loves Other People's Money....

TexasStacker's picture

@xty

CS Lewis was a Christian with a firm grasp of Christian apologetics and the intellect to communicate his beliefs to the masses.

His masses were primarily a monotheistic bloc of Christian believers of varying stripes.

Today, in our multi-culti, polytheistic, colorblind world, good look developing a media that all can agree on.  That's why we have 900 TV channels now, so everybody can watch something within their narrow range of interest.

How many readers here, their parent or grandparents could always be found on Sunday night watching Lawrence Welk or Ed Sullivan?

Sometimes less is more.

printmemoney's picture

@xty

I saw buffet and gates knock gold this morning......they talked about no floor and new technologies that would increase supply

I agree with your assessment....time to run, not walk to the coin store

Maximillion's picture

Re Shanghai futures exchange

The Shanghai exchange starts this Thursday, with it's importance IMO being the investment/saving in PM's versus fiat psychology, of a far greater proportion of Eastern people compared to Westerners. This combined with their countries sheer size of population (ie 1 in 5 people in the world are Chinese), and that over 99% of them are fully aware of how the West grabbed most of their PM's in the Opium Wars, creates one helluva potential market increase.

Combine the above with 'Maguire, thru Turd was quoting a premium of 1.46/oz for cash silver over nearest future silver in China. This is so large ($7,300 on a 5,000 contract) that it indicates complete mistrust in the delivery mechanism (or alternatively belief that a default is imminent).', and, providing this is correct, the Chinese govt, through its population investing in the new exchange, can substantially increase their countries repatriation of PM's (ie Silver), whilst at the same time avoiding conflict with western govts over any hidden price manipulation that may exist.

It's going to be very interesting to see how this one pans out! Either way, it gets us one step closer to the true value discovery of PM's.

ivars's picture

May be I was too fast in shouting things out

But within a week there should be some clarification of silver, stock and QE expectation trends... I hope.

Groaner's picture

I thought for sure gold would be in the towdy by now

I sold my contracts last night. With all the turmoil going on and the 15,000 short contracts from the cot report I feel a raid is coming.. The crooks cant let gold go up when it should, now can they?

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