The How and The Why

In a stunning development, much to the surprise of The Shill, The Coug and LIESman, today's job report was "weaker than expected". Surprisingly, the only mouthpiece that came close to predicting the actual number was former O'Bomney hack, Austin Goonsby. What does that tell you?

So here's the deal. Though I firmly believe that political pressure sways the calculative ability of those within the BLS, it's also possible that, because we are truly in a new paradigm, the current BLS methodology is simply outdated. 

From 1982 to 2007, the U.S. economy was measured as expanding. Those who didn't have jobs often found jobs. Those who still couldn't find jobs, applied for unemployment "insurance". This transfer payment program provided some welfare to those in need of it until they could secure employment and, since the economy was "growing", most found work before the government checks ran out. And that's the key...the program has an expiration date for those on the dole. 

The current expiration date is 99 weeks. This means that anyone receiving unemployment insurance will only receive checks for about 2 years before the government cuts them off. Now, as this pertains to today's jobs number is important. You see the BLS counts those receiving checks as part of the unemployed base. As part of the calculation, when someone stops receiving checks, they are no longer considered to be unemployed. For the 25-year period of 1982-2007, this was an OK way to do things as it was statistically correct to assume that someone no longer collecting unemployment insurance had now found a job. Now, however, that's not the case.

Instead, many folks are "long-term unemployed". They lost their job and applied for unemployment insurance and, after 99 weeks, the checks stopped coming. These folks are now considered by the BLS to have found a job but have they? Maybe a few have but just because the checks ran out does not mean that you are no longer unemployed. However, to the BLS, this is exactly what it means. So, payrolls can only increase by 115,000 and the labor force participation rate can fall to 64.3% but the stated "rate of unemployment" can also fall to 8.1%. TA-DAH!!! Barack The Magnificent can again proclaim at today's press appearance that the economy is strong and he should be re-elected.

More details can be found by reading these excellent, brief summations from ZH:

Again, many of the people not in the measured "labor force" have simply given up. Their unemployment checks have run out and the BLS simply ignores them and fails to count them as if they don't exist at all. And this is how things work in the good ole U.S.A.

Ignoring and manipulating facts and data is also how things work in the gold and silver markets. Look, here's the deal. Everything...and I mean everything...points to a bottom here that will lead to a very strong rebound, particularly in silver. But it's a little like the BLSBS. Post-MFG, we may be in all new paradigm where the only entities left trading paper metal are Cartel Monkeys and HFT WOPRs. Under those conditions, it's going to be very difficult for the metals to surge without some type of "flipping" event which causes the algos to by tilted positively instead of negatively. A sustained short squeeze that drives price back through the 200-day MA would do the trick but can we get that to happen absent news of impending QE? More importantly, will The Gold Cartel allow that to happen ​absent the imminent appearance of overt QE3 or a Cartel switch to net long?

So, just as every traditional indicator I follow screams BUY right here, in this post-MFG world we have to remain cautious. Not so much cautious from a risk perspective, just cautious from a timing and frustration perspective. 

Hang in there. Let this nonsense play out. The American economy is moribund. Europe is an economic disaster. Global demand for physical precious metal is only going to increase. Do not let the minute-by-minute, hour-by-hour shenanigans of the Comex scare you. Your silver and gold will have a higher fiat-conversion price 6 months from now. They will have a higher fiat-conversion price 12 months from now. And, if there are still traditional fiat to which you can convert 24 months from now, the price of gold and silver will be higher still.

OK, that's all for now. As I've typed, I see that we've begun to squeeze the smarty-pant shorts a bit. This is encouraging. In gold, a move abive 1650 will intensify the pressure. Silver needs to crawl back above $31 before anything other than weak hands begin to get squeezed. Keep your fingers crossed and look for a new thread after I've had an opportunity to review what should be a very interesting CoT later this afternoon.



Swift Boat Vet's picture

Eric O

I would LOVE to take a peek at that list of yours!  Bet it's a doozy.


SilverLeaf's picture

The ignore list would be great if only...

...It fully banished the people you put on it.  Out of sight is out of mind. The sucky thing about the way it was implemented on TFMR is that you still see the name and a placeholder for every damn post made by the people you're trying to ignore: 

Troll #1 said...

This person is currently on your Ignore list. To stop ignoring this troll, click here...

What's worse is even if you can hide a troll, you still see all of the retaliatory comments made by people in response to them. If you really want the trolls to be shunned, please consider developing a real ignore function, where all traces of the people you have on ignore disappear from the site. That will go a long way to ensuring the trolls are quickly banished from most people's site experience.  Incidentally, this is an argument for also having threaded conversations, because inflammatory posts made by trolls, and all of the subsequent commentary that fans the flames would be hidden by the ignore filter...Which means fewer people would be engaging in troll baiting, and fewer people still will have to sit by and watch the conversation in Turdville devolve into a Jerry Springer episode.

Driven81's picture

Seems like it really drives some of you crazy

Seems like it really drives some of you crazy, these minute to minute swings of the market, always being exhasperated and disappointed by every move. Unless you are looking to buy, I wouldn't follow every cent's move.

I don't think I have  enough hairs on my body to show for the amount of times I've heard "this one's the next leg up!!" and then it goes down. Just sit back, grab some coffee.....chill. You're going to get tossed out of this market with every one else if you're not careful. 

I Run Bartertown's picture

Number 47

I'm sorry. I was using you to make a point and my 'venom' was really toward that larger point, which is why I didn't direct it at you by name. Still obvious who the shoe fit, so it was rude. My apologies.

FYI, if I were designing a Nation from scratch, it would differ from mine in a number of ways. Many of those ways would preclude the need for (or at least make more manageable) a remedial/ 'safety net' approach. But I don't have that luxury. I'm in a real place that I didn't design and my malice for the Left is because the Left takes a very real form in my country, my state, and my city. 

You've made the point before that socialism is more acceptable (not an insult) in Europe. You're right. Now, think of the other side of that coin. You know plenty people who call themselves socialists but are not hardcore radical Left. Of course. But, as you say, US society views it as another animal entirely and calls 'your type' of socialism - liberalism - HENCE, those that adopt the actual 'Socialist' label here, and advocate the cause, ARE the hardcore, authoritarian left. They're virtually indistinguishable from what you might consider Communist. Think that Bill Ayers (who holds a respected position in academia) advocated killing 25 million or so die-hard free-market types in order to bring on the Leftist Utopia. In our media, they still treat calling HIM a Socialist as a 'beyond the pale character assassination'. So you can imagine what a "proud Socialist" would think on our shores, and how it might not men to (some of) us what you'd expect it to mean.

I Run Bartertown's picture

Number 47

"I'm afraid my social streak is valid right up to the point that my government starts socialising bank losses. I pay plenty other new taxes since this crisis began, enough to make your eyes water."

Drawing a line is one thing. 

Moralizing to people, or assigning motives to people, who draw it in another place, or at a different angle, or on a whole different piece of paper, is another matter entirely. I'm unusual in that it's not the paying that bothers me (I'd rather you take a portion of my pay each week and set it alight in front of me). My issue is not with the paying for welfare or leftist schemes. It's with the soul-sapping, dehumanizing effects of it. 

I am a god damn humanitarian, a fucking people person, don't you see? ;-P

bbacq's picture

@EricO, SilverLeaf: Igging: Should we take it outside, boys?

I just posted to a new forum topic in welcome to turdville.

EricO, would you be willing to share your igg list over there?  I know you post prolifically, do you think it would be of value to your readership to let them know who you were not listening to yourself?  I'm all for transparency...

SilverLeaf, ditto, and I agree, your comments on full-igg and threading are sound.  Might be quite the job to change, maybe not, depends what they are using to serve it all up.

I don't have anyone on my igg list and would value knowing what longstanding members are doing.  Tilting at windmills is one thing, at sock-puppets another.  I accuse no one of being one, see the link above.



Eric Original's picture

bbacq & Swifty

No thanks, kind of a personal thing.

mostly trolls, bullies, people who are overly doomy and gloomy and angry, and people who just can't keep the partisan politics off of Main.

All of that is open to interpretation.  I'll keep mine to myself.

And yes, many, probably most, of those 73 are long gone from the blog, but I'm not going to waste my time going down the list and getting rid of them.  They've already wasted enough of my time.

That being said, occasionally I'll see a question from one of my IU people out somewhere in the forums, about coins or prepping, or whatever, and I'll still answer it if I can, as helpfully and politely as I can.  That's the highest and best use of the blog, and it's amazing how cordial even the worst offenders can be once you get them off of Main St.  There's a "soapbox effect" on Main St that brings out the worst in people.  People who otherwise you could have a beer with.

Driven81's picture

The igg feature is good

But you will learn more if you render ineffect the words of others on your own. That translates to real life experience, and when you can render harmless the harmful words of others in real life, well you are on the right track. Believe me, you will be much happier for it, and sacrificing a bit of one's pride is a small premium to pay for quality happiness. The igg feature, imho, is a shoddy replacement for what we are all fully capable of. Do we not teach our own children such principles?

Just my two cents (before inflation)

California Lawyer's picture

Better Yet, Photo of Stack

Instead of paying for privilege of posting, how about letting folks post only if they can show a picture of their stack?  

That would get the fakes out of here quick, no?

Bobbejaan's picture

@Cal Law ... My (slightly exaggerated) Stack

Instead of paying for privilege of posting, how about letting folks post only if they can show a picture of their stack?

That would get the fakes out of here quick, no?

I suspect not ... For example, here are a few photo's of my stack (I Wish!!! = Boo-Hoo + Woe is me!)


I keep them all safely vaulted at :-

Genie Security,

Opensesame Street,


Stratajema's picture


Someone posted yesterday morning about whether $1,612 would hold in gold.  That is funny because I was pondering about whether $1,480 would hold as support before this downtrend plays out. 

Meanwhile, I went to a very large casino last night just for the terrific buffet.  At nine o'clock the buffet was empty and the casino was packed.  What recession?  What high unemployment rate?  Trust me, the slots in that casino are anything but loose and there was evidently no shortage of cash to piss away.  LOL

Exbroker's picture

The bond is telling us...

We are fucked beyond all recognition. 

koan's picture


Sorry to prolong the troll thing but I agree to a ying button to compliment the yang hat tip one.

But more importantly there should be a restriction on hat tipping/opposite button to logged in users only (and only allows once per user). With the site tracking this data, admin have great transparency to help with their troll lists. Indeed some intriguing data mining opportunities like social graphs for those suspect posts that spring 60+ hat tips etc or if one of the main posters suddenly got a bunch of negative votes then voila - you've an instant troll list!

As for a pay wall - my ideal would be leaving registration as free but to begin hat tipping/commenting etc then there's a one off fee of say $20 (whether this is back dated or not is up to the big guy). In conjunction with the above data tracking admin could easily identify who they don't want to keep posting/tipping and revoke there ability to (of course keeping the fee that would have been clearly explained in the T&C).

The way I see it either the transparency diminishes their effects sufficiently so they slink off to try in an easier hunting ground or they have to keep registering as new users to keep flogging their dead horse which means Turd is taking money from whoever is behind their campaign!

And overall it means we don't have to fill up these threads with posts to highlight subversive behaviour as Turd and the mods have expressed as their wish.

Mantis's picture


Whats up fella's? Trolls?

An increase in trolling activity signifies desperation in the fight to continue the manipulation if you ask me.

Message to the trolls. Give it up. Go long. Join us in the fight for freedom

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